The compute-governance ledger audits 421 papers (2024–2026) on FLOP-threshold policy proposals, frontier-distillation half-life, training-compute reporting, export-control implementation, and compute-vs-capability decoupling. The harness consists of 19 bills, six meta-costs, and three escape gates.
Four bills are predicted ★ empty: Bill 7 (compute-threshold policy claim survives all six audits — every documented threshold is bypassed by post-training methods within months of deployment), Bill 11 (compute-vs-capability causal claim survives independent reproduction at frontier), Bill 14 (cross-jurisdiction / cross-vendor threshold generalization — 4-month BIS Diffusion Framework lifetime is the shortest documented across all 7 ledgers), Bill 17 (anti-distillation / anti-laundering threshold survives held-out audit). All 4 ★ bills hold across batch 1 with explicit empty-space confirmation papers in every sweep.
Two v0.2 promotions: Bill 18 (threshold-policy lifetime audit — EO 14148 rescinds EO 14110, EO 14179 directs follow-on review of EO 14110 actions, BIS Diffusion 4-month lifetime), Bill 19 (frontier-to-distilled-cousin half-life audit — retained as an internal ledger row pending public-source-card verification). Bill 19 is tracked as part of the temporal-trajectory pattern across three ledgers, while exact half-life values remain internal until the data manifest names row-level sources. This document is the Public Draft of the bills definition (v0.2).