Scaling Laws Ledger Data Receipts
Public Draft v0.2 REAL DATA
8 parallel Opus research-agent sweeps yielded ~401 raw papers, deduplicated and hand-arbitrated to 302 unique. Bills 5, 8, 11 ★ NO CLEAN TRIGGER YET (0 clean triggers each). Rebuttal density 25.8%.
Receipts
| Artifact | Link | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Bill definitions | bills_draft.md | 13 bills + 6 meta-costs + 3 escape gates + ★ 5, 8, 11 empty-space verification with real fire counts |
| Threat model | purpose.md | Threat model, scope, empty-space hypothesis, cousin-ledger coupling |
| Corpus union JSON | _batch_1_union.json | 302 unique papers (deduplicated from ~401 raw across 8 sweeps), with full metadata |
| Classifier | bill_classifier.py | Regex rule engine + hand-arbitration. Run with --arbitrate-union |
| Aggregator | aggregate_batch_1.py | Deduplicates raw sweep JSONs into the corpus union |
| README | README.md | Reproducibility README with run order |
Real fire counts
| Bill | Cands. | Clean | Rebuttals | Gated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 — Data-mixture conditioning audit | 50 | 44 | 5 | 1 |
| 2 — Tokenizer-drift / vocab-size audit | 35 | 2 | 0 | 33 |
| 3 — Cross-architecture replication | 72 | 56 | 9 | 1 |
| 4 — Inverse-scaling subset audit | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 5 ★ Causally-faithful scaling-law mechanism | 19 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 6 — Test-time-compute decomposition | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 — Hyperparameter-transfer audit | 26 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 8 ★ Cross-data-mixture generalization | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 |
| 9 — Vendor-claim half-life / temporal-trajectory audit | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 — Emergence-as-mirage decomposition | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 ★ Universal scaling-law cross-architecture | 59 | 0 | 33 | 6 |
| 12 — Anti-saturation construction | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 — Distilled-cousin reproduction | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Public draft v0.2 (2026-05-09). Sweep JSONs live in the source repo at ProjectForty2 public evidence bundle: scaling_laws/deep_loops/. Target v0.3 lock 2026-Q3.