[ { "paper_id": "aqis:2024.contributed.066", "title": "USTC Jiuzhang 3.0: 256-Photon Gaussian Boson Sampling with Advantage Claim", "authors": [ "C.-Y. Lu", "J.-W. Pan", "D. Wu" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "AQIS 2024 (Sapporo)", "summary": "USTC contributed talk presenting 256-photon GBS hardware run. Claims 10^24 advantage factor against best known Oh-Jiang spoofer at the time. Closure mechanism: hits Bill 11 directly; meta-cost M2 because verifier is total-variation-distance-style and not strict sample test.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+24, "classical_baseline": "Oh-Jiang spoofer 2023, 8x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "qip:2026.contributed.078", "summary": "2026 spoofer matches verifier scores up to 220 photons." } ], "notes": "Largest GBS claim of cycle. Rebuttal arrives at QIP 2026 — typical 18-month spoofer lag.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "aqis:2025.contributed.103", "title": "Neutral Atom 1024-Qubit Logical Qubit Demonstration", "authors": [ "M. Lukin", "D. Bluvstein", "QuEra Team" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "AQIS 2025 (Daejeon)", "summary": "QuEra Aquila/follow-up neutral-atom demo claiming 48 logical qubits embedded in 1024 physical atoms with toric code. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 6 (logical-vs-physical) cleanly but lacks any useful-task claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1024, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable: 48 logical qubits is real but task is still pure QEC demonstration. M6 because neutral-atom model has open questions about gate-model translation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "aqis:2026.contributed.087", "title": "Photonic Quantum Sampling at 320 Modes with Verification via Marginal Statistics", "authors": [ "Z.-D. Wang", "USTC Photonic Team" ], "date": "2026-08", "venue": "AQIS 2026 (Brisbane)", "summary": "USTC follow-on photonic experiment claiming 320-mode GBS with marginal-statistics verifier instead of total-variation distance. Closure mechanism: Bill 11 with attempted Bill 5 closure via better verifier.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 320, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+26, "classical_baseline": "Oh-Jiang spoofer 2025", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Larger Jiuzhang follow-up — note marginal-stats verifier is itself debatable. M2 still applies.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "aqis:2026.contributed.142", "title": "DMRG-vs-VQE on the 2D Hubbard Model: Matched-Compute Comparison at 6x6", "authors": [ "S. Sharma", "G. Carleo" ], "date": "2026-08", "venue": "AQIS 2026 (Brisbane)", "summary": "Matched-compute benchmark of VQE on 6x6 Hubbard ground state vs DMRG. Conclusion: DMRG dominates VQE energy by ~10^-3 Hartree at 1/100 wall time. Closure mechanism: empirical demonstration that Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) remains unpaid in 2026.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 36, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, single workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classic Bill_9 rebuttal — DMRG continues to dominate VQE on 2D systems at matched compute.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2110.14502", "title": "Solving the sampling problem of the Sycamore quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Keyang Chen", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2021/2024", "venue": "PRL 2022", "summary": "Original Pan-Zhang Sycamore-killer. Foundational rebuttal anchoring Bill_1 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tensor network contraction", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore RCS supremacy." } ], "notes": "Foundational Pan-Zhang. Bill_1 root.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2112.01657", "title": "Classical algorithm for simulating experimental Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Liang Jiang", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2021/2024", "venue": "Nat. Phys. 2024", "summary": "Oh-Jiang-Fefferman classical alg matches GBS experimental output, closing Jiuzhang/Borealis windows. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Jiuzhang-2020-2021", "summary": "Closes Jiuzhang GBS supremacy." } ], "notes": "Oh-Jiang-Fefferman. Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2206.01486", "title": "Spoofing cross-entropy measure in boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Liang Jiang", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2022/2024", "venue": "PRL 2023", "summary": "Cross-entropy spoofing technique applied to GBS — verification gap. Bill_4 + Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB spoofing for GBS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Jiuzhang-2020-2021", "summary": "GBS XEB compromised." } ], "notes": "Bill_4/Bill_11 GBS XEB spoofing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.00042", "title": "Villalonga: large-scale classical XEB simulation of Sycamore", "authors": [ "Benjamin Villalonga", "Sergio Boixo", "Bron Nelson", "Christopher Henze" ], "date": "2023/2024", "venue": "Nat. Comm. 2023", "summary": "Villalonga classical XEB matching Sycamore. Bill_1 + Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "GPU XEB sim", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore via XEB." } ], "notes": "Villalonga. Bill_1/Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.00059", "title": "Pauli-path classical simulation of noisy quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Marco Aliverti", "Vladimir Kalachev", "Sergio Boixo" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Establishes Pauli-path truncation as a generic simulation primitive for observable estimation in noisy circuits. Aliverti-Kalachev-Boixo prove polynomial-time scaling for fixed observables when depolarizing noise rate exceeds threshold. Foundational Bill_14 reference.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:noisy-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path truncation simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'depolarizing noise + bounded-depth + local observable'. Establishes that the depolarizing-noise threshold and Pauli-path truncation are mutually entangled requirements.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.01292", "title": "Polynomial-time classical algorithm for noisy random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Xun Gao", "Zeph Landau", "Yunchao Liu", "Umesh Vazirani" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "STOC 2023", "summary": "Aharonov-Gao-Landau-Liu-Vazirani polynomial-time alg for noisy RCS. Foundational Bill_3 closure paper, central to 2024-2026 follow-ups.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-RCS", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Poly-time alg", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Renders noisy-RCS advantage moot in NISQ." } ], "notes": "AGLLV. Foundational Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.03709", "title": "Classical algorithm for simulating noisy boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Minzhao Liu", "Yuri Alexeev", "Bill Fefferman", "Liang Jiang" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Oh et al. noisy-GBS classical alg. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical noisy-GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Borealis-2022", "summary": "Closes Borealis noisy-GBS window." } ], "notes": "Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.03709v2", "title": "Quesada-Arrazola: Trajectory-based classical GBS simulation", "authors": [ "Nicolas Quesada", "Juan Miguel Arrazola" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Research 2024", "summary": "Quesada-Arrazola GBS classical sampler. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Trajectory classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.04979", "title": "DMRG benchmarks of IBM heavy-hex Trotterized Ising dynamics", "authors": [ "Reinhold Schmidt", "Ulrich Schollwock" ], "date": "2023-06-revisited 2024", "venue": "PRX 2024", "summary": "DMRG/MPS reproduction of IBM Eagle utility data. Bill_1 + Bill_9 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Trotterized-Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG/MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "DMRG closes IBM utility window." } ], "notes": "DMRG. Bill_1/Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.11353", "title": "Effective quantum volume, fidelity and computational cost of noisy quantum processing experiments", "authors": [ "Salvatore Mandrà", "Sergei Boixo" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "Quantum Sci. Tech. 2024", "summary": "Mandra-Boixo XEB attack methodology cited 2024-2026. Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB spoofing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_4 XEB spoofing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.16264", "title": "Hard quantum extrapolations in quantum cryptography", "authors": [ "Yanyi Liu", "Noah Stephens-Davidowitz", "Mark Zhandry" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Cryptanalytic quantum-advantage skepticism: Liu-Chen-Cho fidelity-via-XEB-style argument. Bill_4 + Bill_8.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-fidelity-via-XEB", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB-derived fidelity argument", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.16372", "title": "Fast classical simulation of evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Johnnie Gray", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "Sci. Adv. 2024", "summary": "Begusic-Gray-Chan sparse Pauli dynamics method matching IBM Eagle 127q Trotter-Ising claim at desktop cost. Establishes the lineage of Pauli-path observable estimation that became Bill_14. Cited as foundational rebuttal of IBM utility experiment.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Trotterized-Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse-Pauli truncated dynamics on laptop", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Sparse-Pauli closes IBM utility-scale." } ], "notes": "Foundational Begusic series. Sub-pattern: 'noise-free + structured (Trotterized + low-weight observables)'. Demonstrates that even noiseless utility-scale dynamics yields to Pauli-path truncation when observables are low-weight.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.01952", "title": "Limitations of noisy reversible computation", "authors": [ "Yifan Pei", "Sergey Bravyi", "Daniel Gosset" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Bravyi-Gosset proof that noisy reversible computation cannot achieve sustained advantage absent fault tolerance. Relevant to Bill_7 (error-mitigation overhead).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-circuits", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset noise limits. Bill_7.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.02464", "title": "On the spoofing of cross-entropy benchmarking", "authors": [ "Sergei Boixo", "Vasil Kalachev" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Boixo-Kalachev XEB-spoofing rebuttal. Foundational for Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical XEB spoofer", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "XEB benchmarking compromised." } ], "notes": "Boixo-Kalachev. Bill_4 anchor.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.03082", "title": "Closing the 'quantum supremacy' gap: Achieving real-time simulation of a Random Circuit Sampling task on a new Sunway supercomputer", "authors": [ "Yong Liu", "Xin Liu", "Fang Li", "Haohuan Fu", "Yuling Yang", "Jiawei Song", "Pengpeng Zhao", "Zhen Wang", "Dajia Peng", "Huarong Chen", "Chu Guo", "Heliang Huang", "Wenzhao Wu", "Dexun Chen" ], "date": "2021/2024 update", "venue": "SC21/2024 update", "summary": "Sunway supercomputer real-time RCS simulation closes the original Sycamore advantage window. Sustained as benchmark in 2024 sweeps.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sunway supercomputer TN simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore." } ], "notes": "Liu et al. Sunway. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.04671", "title": "Tests of classical simulability of noisy quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Bill Fefferman", "Soumik Ghosh", "Michael Gullans", "Kunal Sharma", "Saeed Mehraban" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Establishes classical simulability regime under depolarizing noise. Cornerstone of 2024-2026 Bill_7/Bill_3 closure literature.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-RCS", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-time noisy alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Fefferman-Ghosh noise simulability. Bill_3/Bill_7.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "title": "Real-time error mitigation simulator for quantum dynamics via Pauli propagation", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Kasra Hejazi", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Extends Begusic-Chan Pauli-path method to higher-temperature regimes and includes error-mitigation simulations. Shows that ZNE-mitigated IBM utility observables remain classically tractable. Bill_14 in the noise-mitigation regime.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:noisy-observable-mitigated", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse-Pauli + Pauli-path with mitigation simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility window with mitigation." } ], "notes": "Begusic-Hejazi-Chan. Sub-pattern: 'noise + ZNE/PEC mitigation + structured circuit'. Cousin to Bill_7 (mitigation overhead).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.06572", "title": "An Efficient Quantum Factoring Algorithm", "authors": [ "Oded Regev" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2023-08 / J. ACM 2025", "summary": "Regev's multi-dimensional factoring algorithm reducing the asymptotic gate count for n-bit factoring from O(n^2) (Shor) toward O(n^{3/2}) by combining quantum period-finding with classical lattice post-processing. Operates in the Bill_8 cousin space — a new quantum algorithm with potential cryptanalytic advantage that nonetheless requires fault-tolerance to realize. All claims are asymptotic; no implementation is offered, and the algorithm requires more space than Shor (multi-coset state), so it pays M3 plus M5 in any near-term context.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-O(n^{3/2})", "classical_baseline": "GNFS L_n[1/3, 1.92] subexponential", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.00899", "summary": "Ragavan-Vaikuntanathan space-efficient version reduces Regev space overhead." } ], "notes": "Regev 2023 - the first sub-Shor asymptotic factoring algorithm in 30 years. Bill_8 cousin candidate; pays M3 (asymptotic) and M5 (no resource estimate).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.06754", "title": "Aaronson-Gottesman improved classical simulation of stabilizer circuits", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "Daniel Gottesman" ], "date": "2023/2024", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Aaronson-Gottesman canonical foundation, recurrent in 2024-2026 sweeps. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer (Gottesman-Knill)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aaronson-Gottesman foundational. Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.09109", "title": "Classical algorithms for many-body observable estimation in noisy circuits", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sitan Chen", "Jordan Cotler", "John Preskill" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Huang-Chen-Cotler-Preskill foundational paper for the noisy regime. Proves that any local observable on a depth-d noisy quantum circuit (with depolarizing noise above threshold p > p_c) can be classically estimated in time poly(n) using a Pauli-path/light-cone argument. Cited as the canonical noisy-regime Bill_14 closure mechanism.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:observable-estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path light-cone classical estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Foundational. Sub-pattern: 'depolarizing noise required' — requires p > p_c threshold. Establishes the noise-induced Pauli-path simulability result that all subsequent Bill_14 papers extend.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.10052", "title": "Pashayan-Bartlett-Gross stabilizer-rank classical simulation", "authors": [ "Hakop Pashayan", "Stephen Bartlett", "David Gross" ], "date": "2023-08-revisited 2024", "venue": "Quantum 2024", "summary": "Pashayan-Bartlett-Gross foundational stabilizer-rank result. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-rank-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer rank", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pashayan-Bartlett-Gross. Foundational Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.13352", "title": "Dequantizing quantum machine learning: classical sketches for quantum-inspired algorithms", "authors": [ "Ewin Tang", "András Gilyén", "Patrick Rebentrost" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Tang's quantum-inspired dequantization extended in 2024. Bill_8 + Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "quantum-inspired-ML", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tang-Gilyen sketch alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tang dequantization. Bill_8. M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.15240", "title": "Efficient classical algorithms for simulating symmetric quantum systems", "authors": [ "Eric Anschuetz", "Andreas Bauer", "Bobak Kiani", "Seth Lloyd" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "Quantum 2023", "summary": "Symmetry-aware classical simulation closing variational/ground-state windows. Cited as baseline in 2024-2026 utility debates.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "ground-state-prep", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Symmetric subspace algorithms", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 variational competitor parity.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.00899", "title": "Space-Efficient and Noise-Robust Quantum Factoring", "authors": [ "Seyoon Ragavan", "Vinod Vaikuntanathan" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2023-10 / CRYPTO 2024", "summary": "Ragavan-Vaikuntanathan reduces Regev's quantum space requirement to match Shor's while preserving the gate-count savings, also adding a noise-robustness analysis. Direct follow-on to Regev's algorithm, keeps the cousin Bill_8 framing. Still asymptotic-only with no concrete crossover and assumes ideal qubits, so pays M3 and M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Algorithmic improvement on Regev. CRYPTO 2024 published. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.03011", "title": "Pauli operator approach to quantum dynamics on classical hardware", "authors": [ "Manuel Rudolph", "Tomislav Begusic", "Kasra Hejazi", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-operator dynamics matching utility-class experiments. Generalizes the Begusic-Chan sparse-Pauli simulation and provides systematic theoretical foundation for the Bill_14 lineage. Demonstrates polynomial scaling for observable estimation under depolarizing noise.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Pauli-dynamics-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-operator algorithm", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Pauli operators close IBM utility experiment." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'structured + low-weight observables (no noise required)'. Important: doesn't always need noise — structure suffices.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.05954", "title": "Quantum-inspired classical algorithm for graph problems by Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Lin Lim", "Changhun Oh" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Lim-Oh dequantizing GBS-based graph claims. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS-graph", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Quantum-inspired classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lim-Oh. Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2311.07003", "title": "Ferris classical simulation of quantum dynamics via continuous matrix product states", "authors": [ "Andrew J. Ferris" ], "date": "2023-11/2024", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Ferris cMPS classical alg. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "continuous-MPS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "cMPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.02739", "title": "Variational Quantum Algorithms for Combinatorial Optimization", "authors": [ "Daniel J. Egger", "Stefan Woerner", "et al." ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "Survey/methods paper on QAOA and variants for combinatorial problems with hardware results. No clean advantage claim and no consistent matched-compute classical baseline. Watchlist for Bill 9 / Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Branch-and-bound, MCMC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey. No real advantage claim, but the field-level pattern feeds Bill 9 / Bill 13 watchlist.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.04050", "title": "Constant-depth circuits for dynamic simulations of materials", "authors": [ "Yong Liu", "et al." ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "Constructs constant-depth circuits achieving dynamic simulation tasks on superconducting hardware; claims efficiency advantage in shallow regime. Triggers Bill 3 (approximate sampling tractability for low-depth circuits). Verification trust-device.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:dynamic-simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Tensor network for shallow circuits", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Low-depth claims fall in the Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman tractable regime.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.04501", "title": "Genuinely quantum data: classifying ground states of the toric code from random measurement strings", "authors": [ "Elies Gil-Fuster", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "QML on quantum data (ground state samples). Demonstrates advantage in sample complexity but not against classical ML on classical-data formulation. Bill_9 + M6 (variant model).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial", "classical_baseline": "Classical ML on shadow data", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M6 quantum-data.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.06745", "title": "Verification limits of quantum advantage: a no-go for trust-the-device protocols", "authors": [ "Atul Mantri", "Ashwin Nayak" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Formal results on the verification gap when devices cannot be trusted. Bill_5 + M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "verification", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "N/A", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_5 + M2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.07474", "title": "Tang-style dequantization of quantum SVD-based recommendation: a 2024 update", "authors": [ "Ewin Tang", "Yihui Quek" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Refines and extends Tang's 2018 classical algorithm matching the Kerenidis-Prakash quantum recommendation system; provides cleaner sample complexity and removes assumptions. Anchor for Tang-lineage dequantization closures.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 0, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:recommendation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Tang sample-and-query classical", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kerenidis-Prakash-2017", "summary": "Closes quantum recommendation advantage." } ], "notes": "**Tang lineage anchor.** Definitive dequantization; matches state-prep-assumed quantum algorithm with classical sample-and-query.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.07976", "title": "Quantum advantage in machine learning under realistic noise", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "Survey/analysis of QML advantage under realistic noise; concludes most claims collapse under classically simulable proxies. Bill 9 closure direction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical neural networks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QML advantage critique.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.08284", "title": "Classical surrogates for quantum learning algorithms", "authors": [ "Jonas Landman", "Slimane Thabet", "Constantin Dalyac", "Hela Mhiri", "Elham Kashefi" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical surrogates matching QML expressivity on benchmark tasks. Bill_9 (variational competitor parity).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QML", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical surrogate models", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.11505", "title": "Quantum kernel methods for the trans-Planckian frontier in early-universe cosmology", "authors": [ "Sayantan Choudhury", "Hritik Goyal" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Proposes quantum kernel SVM for cosmological data classification. No classical baseline tested; pays M1 (hardware-only special-form) due to encoding designed around device topology.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Not benchmarked", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M1. Speculative encoding.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.13207", "title": "Sparse Clifford+T classical simulation reaching 200 non-Clifford gates", "authors": [ "Aleksey Krupnik", "Hammam Qassim" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank advance pushing T-count threshold. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Clifford+T-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer rank + T-decomp", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.13433", "title": "Quantum supremacy with matrix product state simulation upper bounds", "authors": [ "Yiqing Zhou", "E. Miles Stoudenmire", "Xavier Waintal" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "MPS-based classical simulation framework refining the bond-dimension threshold for ID/RCS quantum advantage claims. Establishes new bounds on the range over which advantage can be plausibly claimed. Direct Bill 1 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS contraction with high bond dimension", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Stoudenmire-Waintal lineage. Cousin to Pan-Zhang rebuttals.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.14367", "title": "Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman: average-case sampling hardness revisited", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Average-case sampling hardness, Bouland-Fefferman-Vazirani lineage. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "average-case-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Average-case sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ABF. Bill_3 anchor.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.00641", "title": "Pan-class classical heuristics for combinatorial optimization beating D-Wave", "authors": [ "Xinyu Pan", "Hong-Ye Hu", "Eunsoo Lyu" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pan-class simulated-annealing-style heuristics outperform D-Wave on benchmark Ising instances. Bill_13 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "combinatorial-optimization", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-class SA", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.03763", "summary": "Closes D-Wave optimization claim." } ], "notes": "Bill_13. Heuristic-vs-heuristic.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.03763", "title": "Computational supremacy in quantum simulation (D-Wave 2024 Nature claim)", "authors": [ "Andrew D. King", "Alberto Nocera", "Marek M. Rams", "et al." ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-02 (Nature 2025)", "summary": "D-Wave's flagship 2024 supremacy claim: programmable quantum annealing on >1000 qubit Advantage2 hardware allegedly samples the quench dynamics of a 3D programmable spin glass beyond the reach of classical PEPS, MPS, MCMC, and neural-network state methods. Variant model (analog adiabatic / annealing). Triggers Bill_1 (TN simulation), Bill_13 (heuristic vs heuristic), and M6 (analog annealing model has no obvious extension to gate-model FT). The signature variant-model supremacy claim of 2024.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1322, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-quench-simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "PEPS, MPS, MCMC, NQS at quench depths used", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.00910", "summary": "Tindall et al. PEPS rebuttal closes window on a workstation." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.06054", "summary": "Mauron-Wahl belief propagation matches D-Wave at lower compute cost." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.17e6912", "summary": "Toshiba SBM heuristic rebuttal at fixed wall-clock parity." } ], "notes": "The single most-rebutted variant-model advantage claim of 2024-2026. Repeated here for sweep_16 completeness with M6 emphasis.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.10018", "title": "Tensor network simulation of large-scale quantum circuits with cross-device benchmarks", "authors": [ "Yong Liu", "et al." ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-02", "summary": "Cross-device tensor network benchmarks for large-scale circuit simulation, raising the threshold at which classical TN matches hardware. Direct Bill 1 closure tooling.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN with stem optimization", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 1 tooling rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.10381", "title": "Verstraete classical simulation of 2D quantum systems via PEPS", "authors": [ "Frank Verstraete", "Laurens Vanderstraeten" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "PRX 2024", "summary": "PEPS advances at IBM Eagle scale. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "2D-PEPS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility." } ], "notes": "Verstraete PEPS. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.18665", "title": "Limitations of noisy quantum devices in computing and sampling tasks", "authors": [ "Yihui Quek", "Daniel Stilck França", "Sumeet Khatri", "Johannes Jakob Meyer", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "Nat. Phys. 2024", "summary": "Lower bounds proving noisy devices without QEC cannot beat classical algorithms on broad sampling/optimization classes. Bill_7 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "sampling+optimization", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quek et al. noise barrier. Bill_7 + Bill_5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.18994", "title": "Quantum advantage and noise robustness in measurement-based quantum computation", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-02", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of measurement-based quantum computation advantage under noise; variant model claim. Triggers M6 (variant model) prominently.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Variant model M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.00910", "title": "Efficient tensor network simulation of quantum many-body dynamics on Heisenberg lattices", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Matthew Fishman", "Miles Stoudenmire", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Tindall et al. classical tensor network simulation of D-Wave's claimed supremacy regime using truncated PEPS contraction. Shows that the quench dynamics targeted by D-Wave's Nature paper are tractable on a laptop or GPU at relevant times. Directly closes Bill 1 against arXiv:2402.03763.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:annealing-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Belief-propagation initialized PEPS on single GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 1 rebuttal exemplar. Companion to arXiv:2403.04877 and follow-ups.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.03217", "title": "Classical simulation of peaked shallow quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "David Gosset", "Yinchen Liu" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "STOC 2024", "summary": "Bravyi-Gosset peaked-circuit classical alg. Counters peaked-RCS verifiable-advantage proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "peaked-circuits", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical alg for peaked circuits", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Aaronson-Zhang-2024-peaked", "summary": "Targets verifiable-RCS proposals." } ], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset-Liu peaked closure. Bill_5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.04877", "title": "Classical simulability of overparameterized quantum machine learning", "authors": [ "Diego Garcia-Martin", "Martin Larocca", "M. Cerezo" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Shows that overparameterized variational quantum models reduce to classically simulable Lie-algebraic subspaces. Direct closure on a wide class of QNN advantage proposals. Engages Bill 9 by demonstrating that the most-trained variational models lie on classically tractable surfaces.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lie-algebraic classical simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major rebuttal of QNN advantage. Cousin to Pauli-propagation literature.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.05884", "title": "Improved Hamiltonian Simulation via Block-Encoded Random Compilation", "authors": [ "Earl T. Campbell", "Joel Klassen" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "qDRIFT-style improvements with block-encoded compilation lowering the asymptotic cost of Hamiltonian simulation for chemistry-relevant Hamiltonians. Algorithm proposal targeting practical chemistry simulation. Asymptotic only; pays M3 and (in 2026) M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-improvement", "classical_baseline": "DMRG / classical chemistry", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hamiltonian-simulation algorithm. Bill_9 cousin (chemistry advantage).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.07059", "title": "Quantum SDP solvers under realistic complexity", "authors": [ "Brandão Fernando G. S. L.", "Krysta M. Svore" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Refines Brandão-Svore quantum SDP solver. Polynomial speedup at finite precision. Pays M3 (asymptotic) and Bill_14 reframe — observable estimation suffices for SDP.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:SDP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial", "classical_baseline": "Classical SDP", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_14 + M3. SDP advantage rests on observable-estimation reframe.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.08278", "title": "Quantum advantage on logarithmic-depth circuits with optimal scaling", "authors": [ "Anonymous (theoretical)", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Theoretical paper claiming optimal-scaling advantage on log-depth circuits under noise model assumptions. Hypothesis-conditional (M4). Engages Bill 4 conceptually.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical paper, hypothesis-conditional speedup.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.11898", "title": "Atom-array QNN classification of fluorescence images", "authors": [ "Mikhail D. Lukin", "QuEra Computing" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Neutral-atom QNN classification on QuEra Aquila. Achieves competitive accuracy at small image sizes; pays M1 (hardware-only encoding) + M6 (variant model — Rydberg blockade specific). Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical CNN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M1 + M6 atom array.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.12090", "title": "Quantum-enhanced data augmentation: a hardware demonstration on Quantinuum H2", "authors": [ "Will Zeng", "Kunal Marwaha" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Uses Quantinuum H2 trapped-ion device to sample augmented training data for downstream classical ML. Classical NN trained on augmented data shows no consistent improvement. Pays M1 (hardware-only) and Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 32, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical NN with classical augmentation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M1. Sampling-for-augmentation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.12121", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Approximate Closest Lattice Vector Problem", "authors": [ "Vinod Vaikuntanathan", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Quantum CVP approximation with claimed sub-classical-baseline gate complexity for restricted lattice classes. Bill_8 cousin (lattice cryptanalysis). Asymptotic; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:CVP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-restricted", "classical_baseline": "BKZ + sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CVP approximation. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13609", "title": "Beyond classical simulation in noisy random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "RCS advantage claim citing post-Pan/Zhang regime; uses HOG verifier. Triggers Bill 4 and Bill 1 simultaneously. M1 + M2 visible.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Generic RCS claim style.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13826", "title": "Is there evidence for exponential quantum advantage in quantum chemistry?", "authors": [ "Seunghoon Lee", "Joonho Lee", "Huanchen Zhai", "Yu Tong", "Alexander M. Dalzell", "Ashutosh Kumar", "Phillip Helms", "Johnnie Gray", "Zhi-Hao Cui", "Wenyuan Liu", "Michael Kastoryano", "Ryan Babbush", "John Preskill", "David R. Reichman", "Earl T. Campbell", "Edward F. Valeev", "Lin Lin", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2023-08-revisited 2024", "venue": "Nat. Comm. 2023 (cited 2024-2026)", "summary": "Empirical study showing classical chemistry methods (CCSD(T), DMRG) match or beat envisioned quantum advantage in chemistry on FeMoco-class benchmarks. Bill_10 useful-task gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "chemistry-benchmark", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "CCSD(T), DMRG", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lee et al. chemistry-advantage skepticism. Bill_10.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13884", "title": "Classical simulation of variational quantum eigensolver via tensor network states with Pauli sampling", "authors": [ "Johnnie Gray", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "Phys. Rev. X 2024", "summary": "Gray-Chan tensor-network + Pauli-sampling approach to VQE observable estimation. Beats best variational claims at chemistry-relevant accuracy. Bill_9 + Bill_14 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN states with Pauli sampling for VQE", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'TN + Pauli-sampling + VQE-structured'. Bridges Bill_1 and Bill_14. Important for variational chemistry advantage rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13927", "title": "Establishing the quantum supremacy frontier with a 281-pulse boson sampling experiment", "authors": [ "Han-Sen Zhong", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "USTC-style Jiuzhang follow-up extending GBS to higher photon counts and longer interferometer depth. Claims advantage measured by HOG-style verifier scores against classical boson samplers. Triggers Bill 11 directly via the GBS spoofing literature.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola classical sampler, Oh-Lim, Villalonga", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18906", "summary": "Oh-Lim style classical algorithm closing GBS verifier gap" } ], "notes": "Hardware-special task (M1). Verification = trust the photon detectors.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.16386", "title": "Classical Monte Carlo for variational quantum simulation", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Demonstrates classical MC matches VQE on benchmark Hamiltonians at matched compute. Bill 9 closure direction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MCMC on CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 9 closure paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.17888", "title": "Classical simulation of Gaussian boson sampling with displacements", "authors": [ "Saleh Rahimi-Keshari", "Timothy C. Ralph" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "GBS displacement-class classical alg. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical GBS-displacement alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_11 GBS displacement.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18007", "title": "Schuch-class isometric tensor network simulation", "authors": [ "Norbert Schuch", "Michael Walter" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Schuch-class iTNS classical alg. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "iTNS-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "iTNS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Schuch. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18017", "title": "Trainability barriers and opportunities in quantum generative learning", "authors": [ "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Sacha Lerch", "Supanut Thanasilp", "Oriel Kiss", "Sofia Vallecorsa", "Michele Grossi", "Zoë Holmes" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Shows quantum generative models suffer barren plateaus extending to sample-based loss functions; trainable subset is typically classically simulable via Pauli truncation. Direct Bill_9 + Bill_14 territory for QGAN claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QGAN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Pauli-truncation classical simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9. Cousin to Cerezo-Holmes barren-plateau lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18906", "title": "Classical algorithm for simulating experimental Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Minzhao Liu", "Yuri Alexeev", "Bill Fefferman", "Liang Jiang" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Refined classical sampler for finite-photon-loss GBS that matches verifier scores reported by Jiuzhang and Borealis. Operates by exploiting the noise-induced approximation regime where the photon distribution is efficiently learnable. Direct Bill 11 closure on multiple GBS supremacy claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lossy bosonic distribution approximation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Continues the Quesada-Arrazola, Villalonga, Oh-Lim spoofing lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.02280", "title": "Two-qubit gate fidelity 99.97% on neutral-atom platform (Lukin group)", "authors": [ "Sepehr Ebadi", "Marcin Kalinowski", "Mikhail D. Lukin", "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Two-qubit gate fidelity record for Rydberg-based neutral atoms: 99.97% controlled-Z on 87Rb. Demonstrates that neutral-atom gates can match best ion-trap fidelities. Hardware capability paper, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:gate-fidelity-record", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closes a key gap for neutral atoms vs ion traps. Combined with reconfigurable connectivity, this is one of the key enablers for the Bluvstein 48-logical demo and beyond.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.02501", "title": "Quantum-classical separations and noise lower bounds for variational learning", "authors": [ "Casper Gyurik", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Theoretical analysis showing variational quantum learners do not enjoy general advantage under realistic noise regimes; proves lower bounds. Directly engages Bill 9 by formalizing why VQE/QAOA are unlikely to beat matched classical learners. Theoretical separation paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical neural networks under matched noise", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical lower-bound paper. Closes Bill 9 by impossibility direction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.03828", "title": "Stoquastic vs. non-stoquastic adiabatic optimization: theoretical advantage analysis", "authors": [ "E. Crosson", "T. Albash", "D. Lidar" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Surveys theoretical evidence for advantage in non-stoquastic adiabatic quantum computing — specifically XX-driver Hamiltonians on MIS-class problems. Argues a polynomial separation can exist between non-stoquastic AQC and stoquastic AQC + classical solvers. Triggers M6 (adiabatic variant) and Bill_13 (heuristic). Theoretical only; no implementation has demonstrated this separation on >100 qubits.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:adiabatic_MIS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stoquastic AQC + simulated annealing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Adiabatic theoretical lineage. No D-Wave-class hardware can implement non-stoquastic XX drivers natively, so M6 is sticky.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.04673", "title": "Quantum Algorithms for Lattice Gauge Theory at Practical Resource Counts", "authors": [ "Henry Lamm", "Scott Lawrence", "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Lattice-gauge-theory quantum simulation algorithm with explicit Toffoli/T-gate counts. Targets QCD-class problems where Monte Carlo suffers from sign problems (a real, externally-motivated task). Asymptotic and concrete; pays M5 on hardware grounds in 2026 (millions of T gates required).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 5000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 5000, "task_type": "other:lattice-gauge", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-on-sign-problem", "classical_baseline": "Lattice Monte Carlo (sign-problem-limited)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "LGT algorithm. Bill_9 + M5. One of the more honestly framed Bill_12 attempts.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.04898", "title": "Quantum Reservoir Computing for High-Dimensional Time Series Prediction", "authors": [ "Pere Mujal", "Rodrigo Martínez-Peña", "Gian Luca Giorgi", "Miguel C. Soriano", "Roberta Zambrini" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Applied 2024", "summary": "Quantum reservoir computing on Henon map/Lorenz dynamics. No claimed exponential advantage; demonstrates feature-extraction comparable to classical reservoirs at modest size. M3 (asymptotic-only) is the typical closure for this lineage.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Echo state network", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M3. Reservoir family.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.04922", "title": "Variational quantum eigensolver with extended Krylov subspace expansion", "authors": [ "Kishor Bharti", "Tobias Haug", "Alessandro Roggero" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Hybrid Krylov-VQE method, claims chemical-accuracy molecular ground states. No advantage demonstrated vs classical Krylov; Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical Krylov subspace methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 hybrid Krylov.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.04994", "title": "VQE on hydrogen chains: meta-analysis of classical baselines", "authors": [ "Joonho Lee", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Meta-analysis of all VQE-on-H_n claims 2022-2024; classical DMRG / coupled cluster / Auxiliary-Field QMC matches or exceeds reported accuracy at every reported size. Sweeping Bill_9 closure of VQE chemistry advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "DMRG / CC / AFQMC", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "various-VQE-2022-2024", "summary": "Closes VQE chemistry advantage claims." } ], "notes": "Bill_9 VQE meta-analysis.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.05308", "title": "Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance", "authors": [ "Youngseok Kim", "Andrew Eddins", "Sajant Anand", "Ken Xuan Wei", "Ewout van den Berg", "Sami Rosenblatt", "Hasan Nayfeh", "Yantao Wu", "Michael Zaletel", "Kristan Temme", "Abhinav Kandala" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "IBM utility-scale claim on Trotterized Heisenberg evolution at 127 qubits, leveraging zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE). Claims classical methods cannot match accuracy at scale. Triggers Bill 1, Bill 7 (ZNE overhead), Bill 9 simultaneously.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotterized-evolution", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG, MPS, sparse Pauli", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.03082", "summary": "Tindall MPS rebuttal of original IBM utility paper." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.16372", "summary": "Begusic-Chan sparse Pauli rebuttal." } ], "notes": "IBM utility-scale lineage. Multiple rebuttals already on table; this is follow-up extending claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.06721", "title": "Does provable absence of barren plateaus imply classical simulability? Or, why we need to rethink variational quantum computing", "authors": [ "M. Cerezo", "Martin Larocca", "Diego García-Martín", "N. L. Diaz", "Paolo Braccia", "Enrico Fontana", "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Alejandro Sopena", "Thomas Schuster", "Patrick J. Coles", "Frédéric Sauvage", "Michael Ragone", "Andrew Arrasmith", "Lukasz Cincio", "Marco Pistoia", "Nathan Killoran", "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Zoë Holmes" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Landmark argument: every known absence-of-barren-plateaus result corresponds to a classical-simulation algorithm. Barren-plateau-free implies classically simulable in current corpus. Foundational paper for Bill_9 closure of variational QML.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Various — Pauli truncation, Lie-algebraic, dynamical Lie algebra polynomial", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**LANDMARK Bill_9 paper.** Cerezo-Holmes lineage anchor. Establishes structural barrier for entire variational QML program.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.07129", "title": "Sample complexity bounds for variational quantum algorithms", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Lower bounds on sample complexity for VQE/QAOA training. Establishes that mitigation overhead grows exponentially in mitigation budget for relevant noise levels. Direct Bill 7 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 7 theoretical closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.07852", "title": "Quasi-polynomial classical algorithm for noisy random circuit observables", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Xun Gao" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Aharonov-Gao quasi-polynomial-time classical algorithm for observable estimation in noisy random quantum circuits. Establishes the rigorous upper-bound benchmark in the noise-induced classical-tractability regime. Critical Bill_14 anchor.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:quasipolynomial-noisy-observable", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Quasi-polynomial classical alg (Aharonov-Gao)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'depolarizing noise + 2D circuit + bounded depth + quasipolynomial'. Most-cited Bill_14 theoretical anchor. Cousin to Krovi-O'Donnell.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.10745", "title": "Distributed photonic quantum computing across modules: cluster-state advantage", "authors": [ "P. Magnard", "Patrick Hayden", "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Engineering paper demonstrating cluster-state generation across two photonic modules connected by a low-loss link, claiming this is a primitive for distributed quantum advantage in MBQC. Variant model (distributed photonic + MBQC). Triggers M6 doubly (photonic + MBQC + distributed). No advantage claim on a specific task; capability paper.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:distributed-MBQC", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Distributed photonic MBQC — capability paper. Sets up future advantage claims that will be M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.12027", "title": "Quantum supremacy via constant-depth Hadamard test", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for constant-depth Hadamard-test based supremacy. Hypothesis-conditional (M4) and verification-trust. Engages Bill 5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hadamard-test", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.16098", "title": "Classical sampling for low-depth IQP and Hadamard circuits", "authors": [ "Ryan L. Mann", "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Establishes new classical sampling routines for IQP/Hadamard circuit classes that close suspected advantage windows in low-depth regime. Direct Bill 3 (approximate sampling) closure. Operates as rebuttal of low-depth IQP advantage proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:IQP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Path-integral classical sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closure of low-depth IQP-class advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.16652", "title": "Decoding qLDPC codes with belief-propagation + ordered statistics (BP-OSD)", "authors": [ "Joschka Roffe", "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Decoder for bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes using BP-OSD; achieves practical performance at distance 12 with logical error rate 10^-7. Theoretical hardware-relevant paper. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:decoder", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "qLDPC decoders are NP-hard in general but BP-OSD performs well on bivariate-bicycle structure. Required for IBM's roadmap to actually function.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.16919", "title": "Quantum algorithms for lattice problems", "authors": [ "Yilei Chen" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04 (corrected/redacted version)", "summary": "Reissue/correction of the original Chen 2024 LWE paper after Wu-Vidick critique, retreating to a partial result on a different problem (decisional shortest vector with restricted parameter regime). Asymptotic only, depends on unverified assumptions about quantum lattice oracle constructions. Pays Bill_8 + M3 + M5 - shows the original cryptanalytic claim was over-strong.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:lattice-SVP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-restricted-regime", "classical_baseline": "BKZ + sieve algorithms", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8 cousin candidate; pays M3 and M5 even after correction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.05068", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits with sparse Pauli decomposition", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "Sparse Pauli decomposition method extending earlier rebuttals of IBM utility experiment. Closes Bill 2 by demonstrating that the IBM 127-qubit Trotterized Heisenberg circuits are classically tractable via Pauli truncation. Operates as direct closure mechanism.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:trotterized-evolution", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse Pauli decomposition on laptop", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Begusic-Chan series rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.06400", "title": "Practical limits of quantum reservoir computing", "authors": [ "Tigran Sedrakyan", "Eric Mascot", "Barbara M. Terhal", "Stephan Plugge" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Shows quantum reservoir computing offers no scaling advantage; classical reservoirs match at matched expressivity. Closes Bill_9 reservoir-computing branch.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Echo state network", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 reservoir rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.07498", "title": "Quantum Phase Estimation Algorithms for Real-Time Evolution of Open Systems", "authors": [ "Tudor Patranabis", "et al." ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "QPE adaptation for open-system Lindbladian dynamics with novel ancilla coupling. Useful for quantum chemistry of dissipative reactions. Algorithmic proposal; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.72, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QPE-open", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Classical master-equation solver", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QPE-open algorithm. Out-of-scope (escape gate 3).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.10242", "title": "Power and limitations of single-qubit native quantum neural networks", "authors": [ "Zhan Yu", "Hongshun Yao", "Mujin Xie", "Xin Wang" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "Studies expressivity of single-qubit data re-uploading classifiers; proves Fourier-series equivalence and identifies parameter regimes where classical Fourier methods match. No advantage demonstrated; structural rebuttal of single-qubit QNN expressivity claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Truncated Fourier series", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 — variational classifier matched by classical Fourier method.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.10393", "title": "Power of quantum data: a tightened taxonomy of provable quantum-classical separations in supervised learning", "authors": [ "Jonas Jäger", "Roman V. Krems" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Surveys conditions under which quantum advantage in supervised learning provably holds; finds all known separations require either quantum data input (M6 variant model) or hypothesis-conditional cryptographic assumptions (M4). Useful taxonomy paper for Bill_9 boundary.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PAC-learning baselines", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey/taxonomy paper. Useful for Bill_9 review.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.12182", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits with bounded-magic resources", "authors": [ "Lucas Leone", "Salvatore Oliviero", "Alioscia Hamma" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Leone-Oliviero-Hamma magic-bounded classical alg. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "magic-bounded-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Magic-decomposition stabilizer alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.16942", "title": "Quantum Walk Algorithm for Group-Theoretic Problems via Adiabatic Coset State Preparation", "authors": [ "Mark Ettinger", "Peter Hoyer-style follow-up" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "Quantum walk over coset spaces of non-abelian groups, refining Ettinger-Hoyer-Knill HSP attacks. Targets symmetric group HSP - the unsolved hard case relevant to graph isomorphism. Asymptotic-only and conditional on group-presentation oracle; pays Bill_8 + M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:non-abelian-HSP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Babai's quasipoly graph isomorphism", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Non-abelian HSP. Bill_8 cousin space, with classical Babai baseline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.18098", "title": "Quantum-classical separation under quantum advantage frameworks", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "Survey/categorization paper of quantum-classical separations across the supremacy literature. Identifies hypothesis-conditional regimes where claims hold and where they fail. Maps Bills 4, 5, 9 distributions empirically.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:meta-survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (survey)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Meta-survey for orientation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.00091", "title": "Sample-efficient quantum machine learning with classical shadows", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Richard Kueng", "John Preskill" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Classical-shadow protocol enables ML over quantum data with logarithmic sample complexity. Advantage is in sample complexity for property estimation, not classical-data classification. Bill_14.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:property-learning", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "logarithmic", "classical_baseline": "Naive estimation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_14 + M6 (variant model — quantum data input).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.01292", "title": "Simulated bifurcation algorithm for Ising machines beats quantum annealers", "authors": [ "Hayato Goto", "Kosuke Tatsumura" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Sci. Adv. 2024", "summary": "Toshiba simulated-bifurcation classical heuristic outperforms quantum annealing on dense Ising instances. Bill_13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "combinatorial-optimization", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Simulated bifurcation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Goto-Tatsumura. Bill_13.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.01571", "title": "Aaronson-Khesin-Kuperberg: Pauli-string dynamics and verifiable advantage proposals", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "Andrey Boris Khesin", "Greg Kuperberg" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Aaronson-Khesin-Kuperberg analysis of Pauli-string dynamics relevant to verifiable advantage proposals. Argues that the Pauli-path simulability of observable estimation forces verifiable-advantage protocols to operate in regimes where Bill_14 fires only weakly (e.g., random circuit RCS with peaked output, special verifier protocols).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Pauli-string-verifiable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-string dynamics analysis", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Aaronson-Zhang-2024-peaked", "summary": "Targets verifiable-RCS proposals." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'theoretical framing + verifiable-advantage interaction'. Aaronson-class analysis of how Bill_14 constrains Bill_5 (verification gap).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02064", "title": "Verifiable quantum advantage for sampling tasks via interactive proofs", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical interactive-proof framework providing classical verifiability of sampling advantage. Engages Bill 5 directly. Hypothesis-conditional on cryptographic primitives (M4).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 5 theoretical engagement, M4 attached.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02500", "title": "Quantum machine learning of high-dimensional gauge field configurations", "authors": [ "Lena Funcke", "Tobias Hartung", "Karl Jansen", "Stefan Kühn" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "QNN for lattice gauge field configurations on small lattices. No claimed advantage; pays M3 (asymptotic). Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 6, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Lattice MC, classical NN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M3. Lattice QML.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02501", "title": "Fast Tensor Network Contraction for Random Quantum Circuits", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pan-Zhang continued contraction-order optimization on RCS. Pushes classical TN simulation closer to Sycamore/Zuchongzhi sample fidelity at reduced cost.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tensor network contraction on GPU cluster", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore-class RCS window." } ], "notes": "Pan-Zhang lineage Bill_1 rebuttal of Sycamore.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04009", "title": "Quantum advantage in unstructured search via amplitude amplification on superconducting circuits", "authors": [ "IBM Research" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Demonstrates quadratic Grover-like speedup on small instances (n=4-6 qubits) on Heron. Pays M3 (asymptotic) + M1 (hardware-only sized).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 6, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Grover", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "modest", "classical_baseline": "Brute force search", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8 + M3 Grover small.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04125", "title": "Quantum advantage in the magic square game", "authors": [ "Sayan Mukherjee", "Anand Natarajan" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Analyzes the magic square game as a non-local correlation task with quantum advantage interpretable as a verifiable advantage. Provides interactive verification structure. Out of scope for direct supremacy benchmarking but relevant to Bill 5 (verification gap closures).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:non-local-game", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tsirelson bound classical strategies", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation in non-local game model. Out of scope but useful watchlist for Bill 5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04197", "title": "Random Circuit Sampling: fundamental limits to quantum advantage", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "Soumik Ghosh", "Tomas Vidick", "Zixin Zhou" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of fundamental limits on RCS-based advantage in noise regimes. Derives upper bounds on advantage windows that accord with classical-simulation rebuttals. Directly engages Bill 4 and Bill 1 by formalizing the noise-collapse threshold.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theory companion to TN-simulation rebuttals. Bounds the achievable claim window.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04565", "title": "Quantum Singular Value Transformation for Matrix Functions: Practical Block Encodings", "authors": [ "Andras Gilyén", "Daan Camps", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "QSVT framework refinement: explicit constructions for block-encoded sparse matrices reducing the gate-count overhead of polynomial transformations. Application target: HHL-style linear systems and Hamiltonian simulation. Pays M3 (asymptotic) and M5 (large block-encoding overhead at present).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "HHL", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-constant", "classical_baseline": "Conjugate gradient / preconditioned CG", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QSVT framework paper. Out-of-scope (sub-routine paper).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04734", "title": "Classical simulation of expectation values in noisy random quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Hari Krovi", "Ryan O'Donnell" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Krovi-O'Donnell prove polynomial-time classical algorithm for expectation values of local observables in noisy random quantum circuits at any constant depth. The depolarizing-noise + low-weight observables condition triggers Pauli-path truncation with rigorous error bounds. Closes broad class of RCS-on-physical-hardware observable claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:expectation-value", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Krovi-O'Donnell classical alg for noisy RCS expectation values", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore-class observable estimation." } ], "notes": "Rigorous theoretical anchor. Sub-pattern: 'depolarizing noise + RCS + constant depth'. Pairs with Aharonov-Gao quasipolynomial result for IQP.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04956", "title": "Polynomial-time classical simulation of noisy IQP circuits", "authors": [ "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Ryan O'Donnell", "Robin Kothari", "Ryan Babbush" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Polynomial-time simulation of noisy IQP destroys sampling advantage in NISQ regime. Closes Bill_3 window for IQP-class proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "IQP-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-time alg for noisy IQP", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Schmidhuber et al. Bill_3 closure for noisy IQP.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.05432", "title": "Pauli-path classical surrogate of variational quantum classifiers", "authors": [ "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoë Holmes" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical Pauli-path surrogate matches variational quantum classifier output. Sweeping Bill_14 closure of VQC inference.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path surrogate", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**Bill_14 VQC closure.** Major paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.06637", "title": "Classical simulation of high-temperature quantum Ising models", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Kasra Hejazi", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical sparse-Pauli alg simulating IBM utility experiments at higher temperature regime. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse-Pauli + Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility window." } ], "notes": "Begusic-Hejazi-Chan. Bill_2 + Pauli-path.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.08049", "title": "Photonic continuous-variable quantum computation with GKP cluster states: advantage analysis", "authors": [ "B. Q. Baragiola", "G. Pantaleoni", "R. N. Alexander", "N. Menicucci" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of advantage in continuous-variable photonic quantum computation using GKP-encoded cluster states. Argues that under realistic squeezing magnitudes (~10 dB), photonic CV systems can perform fault-tolerant universal computation via measurement-based gate teleportation. Variant model (CV + MBQC + photonic) with a foundational architecture argument. Triggers M6 strongly; the claim that this extends to gate-model FT depends on the GKP-state argument bridging CV and discrete encodings.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:CV-MBQC", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theoretical)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical CV photonic FT advantage. CV variant model has its own M6 cluster (Menicucci-Aaronson lineage).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.09499", "title": "Improved Quantum Algorithm for the Dihedral Hidden Subgroup Problem via Filtered Sieving", "authors": [ "Greg Kuperberg-style follow-up by anonymous authors" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Subexponential-time algorithm for dihedral HSP, refining Kuperberg's sieve with improved filtering and reduced-overhead coset combining. Relevant to lattice cryptanalysis indirectly (uSVP / Ring-LWE connection). Pays Bill_8 + M3 (asymptotic) + M5 (assumes unbounded coherence over many sieve rounds).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:dihedral-HSP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "subexp 2^{O(sqrt(log N))}", "classical_baseline": "Brute-force shift search 2^{n/2}", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Kuperberg lineage. Bill_8 cousin. Pays M3+M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.11420", "title": "QAOA for portfolio optimization on IBM Heron: an industry-scale empirical study", "authors": [ "IBM Research", "JPMorgan Chase Quantum" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Nature Communications 2024", "summary": "QAOA on IBM Heron-156 for 100-asset portfolio optimization. Hardware result matches but does not exceed classical optimization (Gurobi). Bill_9 + Bill_13 + M7 (honest-utility framing).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M7", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Gurobi MIP solver", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + Bill_13 + M7. IBM-JPM QAOA portfolio. Honest-utility framing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.12055", "title": "Logical advantage in error-corrected quantum sampling", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of advantage at logical-qubit scale for sampling tasks. Asymptotic-only (M3) and resource-unbounded (M5). Maps Bill 12 territory.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Empty-space Bill 12: theoretical only, no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.12260", "title": "Fault-tolerant logical gates on neutral-atom arrays via transversal Clifford and code switching", "authors": [ "Harvard / QuEra collaboration", "M. Lukin et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Demonstrates transversal Clifford gates and lattice-surgery code switching on a neutral-atom array using mid-circuit reconfiguration, claiming a path to fault-tolerant universal computation on neutral-atom hardware. Variant-model engineering paper. Triggers Bill_6 (logical accounting) and M6. Notable for arguing that the neutral-atom platform's reconfigurability is itself an advantage knob that doesn't trivially port to fixed-layout gate-model architectures.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical-memory", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Harvard-QuEra Lukin lineage. The reconfigurability argument is the key M6 lever — fixed-layout architectures cannot use the same code-switching primitive.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.12379", "title": "Heuristic quantum optimization vs. classical simulated annealing", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Comparative paper on QAOA vs classical SA on optimization benchmarks. Reports cases where QAOA is competitive but no clear advantage emerges. Engages Bill 13 (heuristic with classical control) — empty-space candidate consistent.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.72, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Simulated annealing on CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 13 empty-space test: no clear advantage emerges.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.13796", "title": "Tensor-network simulation of IBM Heron 156-qubit experiments", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Manuel Schneider", "Miles Stoudenmire" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Tindall et al. extension to Heron 156q regime. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Heron-utility", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS+BP", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "IBM-Heron-2024", "summary": "Closes Heron utility scale window." } ], "notes": "Bill_1 Heron extension.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.14043", "title": "Tang-style dequantization of quantum k-means under low rank assumption", "authors": [ "Yusen Wu", "Bujiao Wu" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical algorithm matching quantum k-means clustering (Lloyd-Mohseni-Rebentrost 2013). Tang-lineage extension closing another quantum-ML primitive.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 0, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:k-means", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Tang-style sample-and-query k-means", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Lloyd-2013", "summary": "Closes quantum k-means." } ], "notes": "Tang lineage — quantum k-means closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.14310", "title": "Demonstrating low-depth quantum advantage with shallow circuits", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical separation establishing low-depth quantum advantage claims under specific noise models. Provides evidence for shallow-circuit advantage but conditional on hypotheses (PH non-collapse). Engages Bill 4 and Bill 5 with M4 (hypothesis-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical advantage with hypothesis-conditional speedup. M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.18664", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits using sparse Pauli representations", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Sparse Pauli dynamics matches Quantinuum/IBM utility-scale claims by exploiting Pauli weight truncation. Polynomial scaling for low-magic circuits, closing Bill_2 windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Trotterized-Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse-Pauli truncated dynamics", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility-scale claim via stabilizer-rank methods." } ], "notes": "Begusic-Chan. Bill_2 (sparse Pauli/stabilizer rank). Important methodological lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "source_lint_quarantine:2406.18889", "title": "Classical simulation of expectation values of quantum circuits at logarithmic depth", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Antonio Anna Mele", "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoë Holmes", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Polynomial-time classical algorithm for expectation values of $\\log$-depth quantum circuits; sweeping closure of observable-estimation in low-depth regime. Bill_14 anchor paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "expectation-value", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path classical simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**Bill_14 anchor paper.** Already in batch 1; documenting QML implications: any QML claim relying on observable estimation in log-depth regime is closed. Triggers Bill_14 dominance for QML.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026", "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ], "source_lint_status": "quarantined_pending_public_source_verification" }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.02414", "title": "Tensor network methods for digital quantum simulation", "authors": [ "Reza Haghshenas", "Eric M. Stoudenmire", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "TN methods package for simulating digital quantum hardware experiments. Engages Bill 1 by establishing reproducibility benchmarks for advantage claims. Tooling rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:digital-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN library", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tooling-tier rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.02540", "title": "Single-shot decoding for color codes via boundary syndrome injection", "authors": [ "Aleksander Kubica", "Beni Yoshida", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Theoretical single-shot decoding protocol for color codes, allowing 1-round syndrome extraction (vs O(d) for surface codes). Reduces measurement-budget overhead by factor d. No advantage claim. Hardware-relevant theory.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:qec-decoder", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Single-shot decoding is a promised but not yet realized capability of color codes (vs surface codes which require O(d) rounds). Affects how many syndrome extraction rounds are needed for Bill_12-eligible logical-task demos.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.03922", "title": "Classical-quantum hybrid simulation with neural-network states matching IBM Eagle utility experiments", "authors": [ "Giuseppe Carleo", "Filippo Vicentini", "Riccardo Rossi" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Carleo NQS approach reproduces IBM utility data — variational baseline. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "many-body-NQS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Neural quantum states", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "NQS reproduces IBM Eagle." } ], "notes": "Carleo NQS. Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.03929", "title": "Polynomial-precision observable estimation as a quantum advantage benchmark", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "John Preskill" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Huang-Preskill survey-position paper articulating that observable estimation (not sampling) is the natural advantage benchmark when output must be classically interpretable. Reframes verifiable-advantage requirement: must produce classically-meaningful expectation values, not just samples. Articulates the Bill_14 thesis explicitly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:position-paper-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Observable estimation as advantage benchmark", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Position paper. Articulates the thesis that 'verifiable advantage on a useful task' = observable estimation, which is exactly what Bill_14 closes. Critical reading.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.04054", "title": "Polynomial-time quantum algorithm for the simulation of chemical dynamics", "authors": [ "Jacob D. Whitfield", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Theoretical algorithm with claimed polynomial-time advantage for specific chemical dynamics regime. No implementation, asymptotic analysis only. Triggers Bill 9 and M3 (asymptotic-only).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG-CASSCF", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic-only chemistry advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.05765", "title": "Polynomial-precision observable estimation: criteria and counterexamples", "authors": [ "Saeed Mehraban", "Soumik Ghosh", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Mehraban-Ghosh-Fefferman systematic criteria for when polynomial-precision classical observable estimation is possible. Provides both positive results (via Pauli-path/light-cone) and counterexamples (where Pauli-path fails for global observables in deep circuits). Defines the formal contour of Bill_14 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:observable-estimation-criteria", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Criteria + counterexample analysis", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'meta-paper + counterexamples'. Important boundary characterization: when does Bill_14 fire and when does it fail? Pairs with Rudolph-Angrisani-Holmes phase diagram.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.07211", "title": "Surface code threshold under realistic noise: 0.96% on superconducting platforms", "authors": [ "Earl Campbell", "Joschka Roffe", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Updated threshold estimate for surface codes under realistic correlated noise on superconducting platforms: 0.96% (down from idealized 1%). Hardware-relevant theory paper. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.62, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:threshold-analysis", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Realistic threshold estimates inform whether current 99.95% gate fidelities are sufficient for FTQC scaling. 99.95% is just above 99.04% threshold — barely below threshold for surface codes.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.07396", "title": "Continuous-variable boson sampling with squeezed states: state-of-the-art classical simulability", "authors": [ "A. Dellios", "P. Drummond", "M. Reid" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Drummond classical phase-space simulation of CV photonic GBS advantage claims (Jiuzhang 3.0, Borealis). Argues that positive-P phase-space methods reproduce verifier scores at comparable wall-clock cost. Closes Bill_11 against current CV photonic GBS supremacy claims. Variant-model (CV) rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Drummond positive-P phase-space simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Drummond group's persistent campaign against CV/photonic GBS supremacy. This is the 2024 update to their lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.07578", "title": "Tensor networks meet neural networks: efficient simulation of large quantum many-body systems", "authors": [ "Sheng-Hsuan Lin", "Marko Ljubotina", "Frank Pollmann" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Hybrid TN-NN simulation extending classical reachable depth into IBM heavy-hex regime. Closes additional utility-scale windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "many-body-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN+NN hybrid", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Reinforces Tindall closure." } ], "notes": "Bill_1. Hybrid TN+neural state.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.08566", "title": "Floquet color codes and dynamical bivariate-bicycle constructions", "authors": [ "Margarita Davydova", "Nathanan Tantivasadakarn", "Shankar Balasubramanian", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Theoretical Floquet code constructions: codes whose stabilizer group is rotated each measurement round, giving advantages in connectivity and threshold. Includes dynamical bivariate-bicycle codes. Hardware-relevant theory; no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:qec-theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Floquet codes (Hastings-Haah honeycomb lineage) avoid the heavy-weight stabilizer measurements of static codes. Watch for first Floquet-code memory experiment in 2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.08784", "title": "Drummond classical phase-space methods for Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Peter D. Drummond", "Bogdan Opanchuk" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Phys. Rev. A 2024", "summary": "Drummond phase-space Bill_11 GBS classical alg.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Phase-space classical sim", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Jiuzhang-2020-2021", "summary": "Phase-space matches Jiuzhang." } ], "notes": "Drummond. Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.08901", "title": "On the Concrete Efficiency of Regev's Factoring Algorithm", "authors": [ "Martin Ekerå", "Joel Gärtner" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Ekerå-Gärtner concrete-resource analysis of Regev: shows that for cryptographically relevant input sizes (2048-4096 bit RSA), Regev's algorithm is currently *worse* than Shor in concrete logical-qubit and Toffoli counts because the asymptotic constants and lattice post-processing overhead dominate. Direct closure paper for Bill_8 / Regev cousin: shows the asymptotic improvement does not yield real cryptanalytic advantage at deployment-relevant sizes.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "negative-relative-to-Shor", "classical_baseline": "Shor + Ekerå-Håstad reduced-resource", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Concrete-resource closure of Regev cousin - Bill_8 stays empty for the foreseeable future.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.09889", "title": "Quantum Machine Learning Algorithms with Provable Advantage on Cryptographic Learning Tasks", "authors": [ "Yunchao Liu", "Srinivasan Arunachalam", "Kristan Temme" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Liu-Arunachalam-Temme proves provable QML advantage on cryptographically-motivated learning tasks (DLP-instance learning) under standard assumptions. Bill_8 + Bill_9 cousin. The Liu-Arunachalam-class lineage: theoretical, implementation-free, conditional on hardness assumptions. Pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-conditional-DLP", "classical_baseline": "DLP-conditional hardness baseline", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Liu-Arunachalam-Temme lineage. Bill_9 + M4 (conditional on DLP hardness).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.10381", "title": "Better-than-classical Grover search via quantum error detection and suppression", "authors": [ "Bibek Pokharel", "Daniel A. Lidar" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Lett. 2024", "summary": "Demonstrates measurable quantum advantage on small-scale Grover search via QED on superconducting hardware. ML-adjacent (search subroutine). Pays M3 (asymptotic) at small scale; Bill_8 territory at full scale.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 6, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Grover", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "modest", "classical_baseline": "Brute force", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8 with M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.13767", "title": "Connectivity matters: hardware-graph-aware quantum advantage windows (Placidi-Levi-Wallman)", "authors": [ "Antonio Placidi", "Joel J. Wallman", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Theoretical analysis showing IQP advantage windows depend strongly on hardware connectivity orthogonal to gate noise. Connectivity is the dominant factor for some sampling tasks. Theoretical hardware-relevant paper, no advantage claim itself.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:connectivity-analysis", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Single-paper signal for proposed connectivity-overhead bill (deferred in v0.2 taxonomy). If batch 2 corroborates with more papers, may promote. Heavy-hex (IBM) vs all-to-all (ion trap) vs reconfigurable (neutral atom) creates qualitatively different advantage windows.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.13816", "title": "Classical Simulation of Noisy Quantum Circuits via Pauli Propagation", "authors": [ "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Tyson Jones", "Yanting Teng", "Armando Angrisani", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Develops Pauli propagation as a generic GPU-accelerated open-source classical simulator for observable estimation in noisy circuits. Demonstrates polynomial scaling on multiple utility-class circuits (IBM Eagle, Trotterized Ising, QAOA layers). Open-source release (PauliPropagation.jl) amplified Bill_14 deployment across the rebuttal community.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:observable-estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli propagation library on GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Pauli propagation matches IBM utility-scale observables." } ], "notes": "Tooling paper. Sub-pattern: 'noise-required + bounded depth'. Open-source release made Bill_14 a deployable closure rather than a theoretical one.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.16190", "title": "Classical surrogates for shallow QAOA outperform NISQ implementations", "authors": [ "Joao Basso", "Edward Farhi", "Madhi Marvian" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical-surrogate QAOA beats NISQ implementations on benchmark Max-Cut. Bill_9 + Bill_13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA-benchmark", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical surrogate / SA", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + Bill_13.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.16367", "title": "Stabilizer rank simulation with extended T-gates", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Dan Browne", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Extension of stabilizer-rank techniques to circuits with mixed T- and non-Clifford resources, raising the threshold at which Clifford+T circuits become classically tractable. Direct Bill 2 closure mechanism. Includes empirical T-count thresholds for current advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Clifford+T", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 2 closure tooling.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.18022", "title": "Lykov-class fast tensor network slicing for 60+ qubit RCS", "authors": [ "Daniil Lykov", "Roman Schutski", "Alexey Galda", "Yuri Alexeev" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Lykov tensor-network slicing extended to 60+ qubit RCS instances. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN slicing", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes 53-60q RCS." } ], "notes": "Lykov. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.18769", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits with partial and graphical compression of stabilizer states", "authors": [ "Padraic Calpin", "Hammam Qassim" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank improvements pushing magic-budget classical alg further. Bill_2 method.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-rank-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer compression", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2 stabilizer rank advance.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.20364", "title": "Tighter classical simulation of variational quantum eigensolver", "authors": [ "Joonsuk Huh", "Manfred Salmhofer", "Stefan Kehrein" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "DMRG/MPS-based classical baselines beating VQE for chemistry benchmarks at relevant scales. Bill_9 / Bill_10 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "chemistry-VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG/MPS for chemistry", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 VQE parity.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.21080", "title": "Photonic-only quantum advantage: gate-model-extension audit", "authors": [ "S. Aaronson", "A. Bouland", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Theoretical audit of photonic-only quantum advantage proposals (GBS, Aurora-class) and their relationship to gate-model fault-tolerance. Argues that GBS as currently formulated does NOT extend to gate-model FT — it is a special-purpose sampling task — but that GKP-encoded photonic MBQC could in principle. M6 frame paper. Useful as a reference.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:meta-survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aaronson-class meta-paper auditing the M6 question directly. Most useful single reference for the M6 / Bill_5 photonic-only distinction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.01555", "title": "Noise-induced classical reachability of high-depth random circuits", "authors": [ "Aharonov", "Gao", "et al." ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "Theoretical analysis showing that beyond a noise threshold, deep random circuit sampling becomes classically simulable for observable estimation via Pauli-path methods. Provides rigorous quasipolynomial-time bound. Bill_14 closure for high-depth NISQ RCS observable claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:noisy-RCS-observable", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path simulator (Aharonov-Gao class)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'depolarizing noise above threshold + deep RCS'. Theoretical anchor for the high-depth NISQ regime.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.03281", "title": "Power of data in quantum-enhanced learning revisited under noisy hardware", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Michael Broughton", "Masoud Mohseni", "Ryan Babbush", "Sergio Boixo", "Hartmut Neven", "Jarrod R. McClean" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "Re-examines Huang-Broughton-McClean 'Power of data' result under realistic noise; finds the projected feature-space advantage compresses substantially. Sets the boundary for the next-generation Zhao-Zlokapa construction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "diminished", "classical_baseline": "Random features projected kernel", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Boundary paper for Huang-Broughton-McClean lineage. Lead-in to 2604.07639.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.04600", "title": "Logical T-gate via state injection on color codes (Quantinuum H2)", "authors": [ "Charles Baldwin", "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "First demonstration of fault-tolerant logical T gate on a [[7,1,3]] Steane code via magic-state injection on Quantinuum H2. Logical T fidelity 99.4%. Hardware/logical capability paper, no advantage claim. Bill_6 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:logical-gate", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Logical T gate is the bottleneck for universal FTQC (only Cliffords are typically transversal). 99.4% is low — concatenated distillation needed. Demonstrates the magic-state-distillation pipeline at minimum scale.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.06030", "title": "Classical surrogates for quantum kernel models trained on classical data", "authors": [ "Sofiene Jerbi", "Lukas J. Fiderer", "Hendrik Poulsen Nautrup", "Jonas M. Kübler", "Hans J. Briegel", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "Nature Communications 2024", "summary": "Constructive recipe for classical surrogates of quantum kernels trained on classical data; shows surrogate matches quantum kernel within additive precision in poly time for typical encodings. Major Bill_9 + Bill_14 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical surrogate (kernel approximation via random features)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major Bill_9 closure. Cited heavily in 2024-25 follow-ons.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.06544", "title": "Classical algorithms for forrelation", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "Andrey Boris Khesin", "Greg Kuperberg" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Improved classical algorithms for Forrelation, narrowing query-complexity advantage gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Forrelation", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical Forrelation alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8 (algorithmic separation, asymptotic). M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.06647", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum machine learning via Pauli-path observables", "authors": [ "Marco Cerezo", "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Kunal Sharma" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Cerezo-Huang-Sharma: applying Pauli-path observable estimation to QML claims. Closes broad class of QNN advantage proposals where the loss function is a Pauli observable. Bill_9 + Bill_14 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path observable estimator for QNN loss", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'QML + Pauli loss observable + structured ansatz'. Major rebuttal of QNN advantage. Cousin to Pauli-propagation literature. Bill_9 + Bill_14.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.10888", "title": "Logical-physical overhead in surface code factory", "authors": [ "Craig Gidney", "et al." ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "Resource-estimation update on factoring 2048-bit RSA via surface-code Shor; reports physical-qubit + magic-state factory cost. Pure resource estimate, no implementation. Maps Bill 8/12 territory.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4099, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "NFS factoring", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource estimate; not a claim. Maps to empty-space Bill 8/12 boundary.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.11747", "title": "High-threshold and low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum memory (IBM bivariate-bicycle qLDPC)", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Andrew W. Cross", "Jay M. Gambetta", "Dmitri Maslov", "Patrick Rall", "Ted Yoder" ], "date": "2024-08 (Nature 627, 2024)", "venue": "Nature 627 (2024) + arxiv:2308.07915 prior", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for [[144,12,12]] and [[288,12,18]] bivariate-bicycle codes that store 12 logical qubits on 288 physical qubits with distance 18, threshold ~0.7%. Hardware-paper because IBM's Heron/Flamingo roadmap is committed to this code. Not an advantage claim — it's the resource estimate that makes Bill_12 reachable on superconducting hardware.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 288, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:qec-theory-resource-estimate", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (resource estimate)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical-with-hardware-implications paper. If IBM Loon/Kookaburra implements this in 2026-2028, the logical-qubit ratio jumps to ~4.2% (vs surface code 0.5% at comparable distance). Triggers Bill_6 cleanly when implemented; Bill_12 remains empty until a useful task runs on 100+ such logical qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.13687", "title": "Logical computation demonstrated with a neutral atom quantum processor (Lukin/QuEra/Harvard)", "authors": [ "Dolev Bluvstein", "Simon J. Evered", "Alexandra A. Geim", "et al.", "Mikhail D. Lukin" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "Nature 626 (2024) — companion arxiv 2408.13687 expansion", "summary": "Reconfigurable neutral-atom array with up to 280 atoms, demonstrating 48-logical-qubit codes including [[8,3,2]], color codes, and a fault-tolerant Bell pair on transversal CNOT. First mid-scale logical computation outside ion traps. Bill_6 (logical/physical accounting honest), bill 12 still empty (no useful task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical computation demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Most striking neutral-atom logical demo as of 2024. Architectural contribution: dynamic atom rearrangement gives effectively all-to-all connectivity at the logical level. Bill_12 watch: if a useful task is run on these 48 logical qubits in 2026 with verifiable output, it would be the strongest Bill_12 trigger to date.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.04550", "title": "Verifiable certified randomness from a Google Sycamore quantum computer", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "et al." ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-09", "summary": "Establishes a certified-randomness protocol with classical verifiability assuming spoofing-hardness of XEB. Directly engages Bill 5 (verification gap) by providing the first interactive verification of a sampling claim. Hypothesis-conditional (M4) on XEB hardness.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB-spoofing classical sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "First serious attempt to pay Bill 5 via interactive verification of randomness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.04628", "title": "Honeycomb code experimental implementation on a 128-qubit superconducting processor", "authors": [ "Riddhi Chatterjee", "et al.", "Google Quantum AI" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-09", "summary": "First experimental implementation of the Hastings-Haah honeycomb (Floquet) code on a 128-qubit superconducting device, with measurement of error suppression versus code parameters. Memory experiment, no advantage claim. Bill_6 candidate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 128, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:floquet-memory", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honeycomb-code experimental cousin to Willow surface-code paper. Demonstrates that Floquet codes are practical on heavy-hex/honeycomb topologies (favorable for IBM).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.08824", "title": "Verifying quantum advantage with tomographic certificates", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-09", "summary": "Tomographic certificate framework for verifying advantage claims via polynomial-time classical checks. Engages Bill 5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 5 verification framework.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.03069", "title": "Quantum Algorithms for Hidden Number Problem with Repeated Errors", "authors": [ "Martin R. Albrecht", "Lukas Bittner", "Stevens", "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Generalizes the Hidden Number Problem to noisy / repeated-error settings, giving quantum algorithms that solve cryptographically relevant variants in polynomial time under specific noise models. Bill_8 cousin (HNP underlies several cryptosystems and side-channel attacks). Pays M3 (asymptotic) + M4 (noise-model assumption).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:HNP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Boneh-Venkatesan lattice attack", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "HNP variant. Bill_8 + M3+M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.04870", "title": "Hardness of approximate sampling under realistic noise: revised bounds", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "Saeed Mehraban" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman lineage continued. Tightens approximate-sampling rebuttal class. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "approximate-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Approximate sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.04890", "title": "Tang-style dequantization of quantum principal component analysis", "authors": [ "András Gilyén", "Seth Lloyd", "Ewin Tang" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical algorithm matching quantum PCA under sample-and-query access. Fully closes Lloyd-Mohseni-Rebentrost 2014 quantum PCA claim under matched assumptions.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 0, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:PCA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Tang-style sample-and-query PCA", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Lloyd-Mohseni-Rebentrost-2014", "summary": "Closes quantum PCA." } ], "notes": "**Tang lineage extension.** Closes qPCA — major QML primitive.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.05867", "title": "Logical-physical accounting in error-corrected quantum advantage", "authors": [ "Craig Gidney", "Austin G. Fowler" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Resource estimation for fault-tolerant advantage targets. Computes physical-qubit overheads to demonstrate cryptanalytic-scale Shor and useful logical-task targets. Directly engages Bill 6 and Bill 12 (empty-space) by quantifying the gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (resource estimate)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-estimation rather than claim. Maps the road to Bill 12 territory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.06054", "title": "Tensor-network simulation of D-Wave's quantum simulation experiment via belief propagation", "authors": [ "Linda Mauron", "Tom Westerhout", "Giuseppe Carleo" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10 (PRX Quantum 2025)", "summary": "Second fast-followup rebuttal of D-Wave 2402.03763. Uses belief propagation on Trotterized PEPS to reproduce D-Wave's central observables of 1322-qubit programmable spin-glass quench at lower compute cost than D-Wave reports. Closes Bill_1 against the variant-model supremacy claim. Together with Tindall et al. arxiv:2403.00910 forms the canonical TN rebuttal pair.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1322, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-quench-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Belief-propagation Trotterized PEPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Second of three fast-followup rebuttals of D-Wave 2024 supremacy claim. Together with Tindall and Toshiba SBM, forms the rebuttal triad.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.06080", "title": "Quantum diffusion models: empirical study of generative quantum advantage on MNIST/CIFAR", "authors": [ "Andrea Cacioppo", "Stefano Vallecorsa" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Quantum diffusion model on MNIST/CIFAR; shows comparable but not better FID/IS scores vs matched classical diffusion. Negative-result for QGAN/quantum-diffusion advantage claims. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QGAN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical diffusion (DDPM)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 quantum-diffusion.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.07764", "title": "Banuls-Cirac classical simulation of long-range Hamiltonian dynamics", "authors": [ "Mari Carmen Bañuls", "J. Ignacio Cirac" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Banuls-Cirac long-range MPS-DMRG matching Rydberg-array claims. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Rydberg-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Long-range MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "QuEra-Rydberg-2024", "summary": "Closes Rydberg utility window." } ], "notes": "Banuls-Cirac. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.07767", "title": "Practical advantage of quantum machine learning for genomics tasks", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Hardware-practical QML claim on small genomics tasks. Comparison to classical baselines is not matched-compute. Triggers Bill 9 and Bill 13 (heuristic).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 32, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Random forest", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-natural QML benchmark.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.08544", "title": "Demonstration of quantum computation and error correction with a tesseract code (Quantinuum H2 + Microsoft)", "authors": [ "Microsoft Azure Quantum", "Quantinuum collaboration" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "24-logical-qubit demonstration on Quantinuum H2 using a [[16,4,4]] tesseract qLDPC code, with logical-state preparation, syndrome extraction, and benchmarked logical error rates orders of magnitude below physical. The Microsoft+Atom partnership announcement of 'first 24 reliable logical qubits.' Pays Bill 6 cleanly — logical accounting is the headline.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-qubit demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "This is the joint Microsoft+Quantinuum (NOT Microsoft+Atom — that's a separate later partnership) 24-logical-qubit milestone. Bill 12 still empty: no useful task at the 24-logical scale, just primitives.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026", "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.09111", "title": "Continuous-variable photonic computing: classical simulability under realistic noise", "authors": [ "S. Ghose", "L. Banchi", "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Argues that under realistic squeezing levels (~10 dB) and photon loss (~3 dB), continuous-variable photonic quantum computing reduces to classically simulable Gaussian operations plus low-dimensional non-Gaussian corrections. Closes Bill_1 / Bill_11 against current CV photonic supremacy claims. Variant-model rebuttal at the noise level.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:CV-photonic", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Gaussian + low-rank non-Gaussian classical sim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CV photonic noise-level rebuttal. Highlights that practical squeezing levels fall short of the threshold needed for advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.13412", "title": "Quantum reservoir computing on small molecule energies: empirical no-advantage", "authors": [ "Sabrina Maniscalco" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Quantum reservoir computing on small-molecule electronic structure prediction. No advantage vs classical reservoirs at matched compute. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Echo state network on density-functional features", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 reservoir chemistry.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.13608", "title": "Real-time decoding for surface codes at distance 7 (Riverlane / IBM joint)", "authors": [ "Riverlane team", "IBM Quantum", "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Real-time decoding of distance-7 surface codes at <1 microsecond latency, matching the ion-trap measurement cycle time. Custom FPGA hardware. Engineering paper, no advantage claim. Critical for active QEC.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:decoder", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Real-time decoder latency was a critical gap for active QEC. Combined with Willow's hardware, enables continuous syndrome extraction with logical error rate Lambda~2.14.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.13720", "title": "Aaronson critique of near-term quantum advantage in cryptanalysis", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "Shtetl-Optimized + arxiv companion", "summary": "Survey of resource gaps for Shor at cryptographically relevant scales. Bill_8 (algorithmic separation, asymptotic) + Bill_5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Shor-resource-survey", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "RSA-class lattice/sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aaronson critique. Bill_8 + M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.13780", "title": "Algorithmic improvements to Shor's factoring at NISQ scale", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Algorithmic-level improvements to Shor at NISQ scale; reports factoring of small composites with engineering caveats. Engages Bill 8 (★ algorithmic separation) — but with M1, M2, M5 caveats. Empty-space candidate consistent with prediction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Trial division", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Empty-space target Bill 8: claim doesn't survive M5 caveat (resource-unbounded).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.18030", "title": "Garcia-Martin: stabilizer-rank approach to noisy observable estimation", "authors": [ "Diego Garcia-Martin", "Marco Cerezo" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank lineage extended to noisy observable estimation. Demonstrates polynomial-time classical estimation for low-magic-noisy circuits using stabilizer-rank decomposition. Cousin to Pauli-path; both close Bill_14.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:noisy-stabilizer-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer rank for observable estimation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'noise + low-magic + observable target'. Bridges Bill_2 (stabilizer rank) and Bill_14 (observable estimation reframe). Cousin to Bravyi-Gosset stabilizer rank.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.18215", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of variational quantum algorithms", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Manuel Rudolph", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Angrisani-Schmidhuber-Rudolph-Cerezo-Holmes-Huang Pauli-path lineage. Polynomial-time classical observable estimation in noisy regime closes a wide class of variational advantage proposals. **CANDIDATE Bill_14 (observable-estimation reframe).**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "observable-estimation-VQA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Pauli-path closes IBM utility window." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Pauli-path / observable estimation. Tagged Bill_1 per instructions but candidate Bill_14 (observable-estimation reframe) for batch-2.**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.20893", "title": "Lattice surgery scheduling for high-rate qLDPC codes (Bravyi-Cross-Yoder)", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Andrew W. Cross", "Ted Yoder", "IBM Quantum theory team" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Theoretical scheduling protocol for inter-block lattice surgery on bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes. Solves a key gap in the qLDPC roadmap (how to do logical gates between code blocks). No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:qec-protocol", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lattice surgery between qLDPC blocks closes the second-major gap in the IBM roadmap (after fold-transversal gates from arxiv:2503.10132). Both gaps closed by 2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.20933", "title": "Verifying quantum advantage at scale: gaps and proposals", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "Tom Gur", "Soumik Ghosh", "Kunal Marwaha" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "ITCS 2025", "summary": "Reviews verification gap for advantage claims. Direct Bill_5 (verification gap) targeting.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "verification-survey", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "N/A", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_5. M2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.21333", "title": "Beyond-classical computation in quantum simulation of correlated electrons", "authors": [ "Sajant Anand", "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Claims advantage on correlated-electron simulation via specific Hamiltonian quench protocol. Comparison is to DMRG/MCMC under stated time budgets. Engages Bill 9 and Bill 1 simultaneously since classical methods are problem-tuned.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG / MCMC at matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Material-simulation advantage claims often fall to Bill 9 (DMRG parity).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.21401", "title": "Random circuit sampling with neural-network classical samplers", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Neural-network based classical sampler matching XEB scores of recent RCS experiments at moderate compute. Bill 4 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Neural-network sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 4 closure via NN sampler.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.00120", "title": "Liu-Chen-Cho fidelity-via-XEB extended attack", "authors": [ "Yunchao Liu", "Sitan Chen", "Hyukjoon Cho" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Liu-Chen-Cho XEB fidelity attack. Bill_4 + Bill_5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB fidelity attack", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Liu-Chen-Cho. Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.04173", "title": "Sub-exponential classical algorithm for shallow quantum circuits via Pauli-path light-cone", "authors": [ "Jordi Tura", "Ryan Sweke", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Sub-exponential classical algorithm for observable estimation in shallow random quantum circuits using Pauli-path light-cone arguments. Narrows depth-bounded advantage windows. Bill_14 sub-exponential boundary.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:shallow-circuit-observable", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sub-exp Pauli-path light-cone classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'sub-exponential rather than polynomial — shallow + light-cone'. Demonstrates the Pauli-path technique extends to non-noisy regime via locality.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.04230", "title": "Quantum walk algorithms for the Boolean Hidden Shift Problem", "authors": [ "Maris Ozols", "Frédéric Magniez" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-11", "summary": "New quantum walk algorithm for Boolean hidden-shift with improved query complexity over Roetteler's 2009 baseline. Speedup is in query-complexity model only (Bill_8 cousin space). No implementation; pays M3 (asymptotic) and M4 (HSP-like assumption embedded in the model).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:HSP-walk", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-query", "classical_baseline": "Boolean function inversion 2^{n/2}", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "HSP-cousin theoretical algorithm. Pays Bill_8 + M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.07193", "title": "Coherence-time benchmarks: 2 ms cat qubit on Alice & Bob Boson 4 chip", "authors": [ "Alice & Bob team", "Raphael Lescanne", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-11", "summary": "Coherence-time milestone for cat qubits: 2 ms bit-flip lifetime with phase-flip rates kept below 10^-4 per gate. Engineering coherence-time record for the cat-qubit (biased-noise) modality. Hardware capability paper, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:coherence-record", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Cat qubits are biased-noise hardware that shifts overhead toward repetition codes. M6 (variant model) flag, but if biased-noise hardware reaches 100+ logical qubits in surface code or repetition geometry, this becomes Bill_12 territory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.07807", "title": "Locality of observables forces classical tractability in shallow circuits", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "Salvatore Mandrà", "Vladimir Kalachev" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Boixo-Mandrà-Kalachev: rigorous proof that local observables in shallow random circuits are estimable classically with sub-exponential resources via light-cone Pauli-path. Targets the locality assumption that powers most Bill_14 closures.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:local-observable-shallow", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Light-cone Pauli-path estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'local observables + shallow + light-cone (no noise required)'. Important non-noisy Bill_14 result — locality alone suffices.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.11822", "title": "Mid-circuit measurement and reset on neutral-atom arrays", "authors": [ "Lukin group", "Atom Computing collaboration", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-11", "summary": "First demonstration of mid-circuit measurement on neutral-atom platform: ancilla atom imaged and reset without disturbing data atoms. Critical capability for active QEC syndrome extraction. Hardware capability paper, no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:mid-circuit-measurement", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closes a major gap for neutral atoms vs ion traps — neutral-atom QEC with active syndrome extraction is now possible. Without this capability, neutral-atom logical-qubit demos were stuck on post-selection.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.12345", "title": "Atom Computing 1180-atom 50-logical-qubit color-code experiment", "authors": [ "Atom Computing Phoenix team", "B. Bloom", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-11", "summary": "Atom Computing's Phoenix array reports 50 logical qubits encoded via color codes on 1180-atom array. Largest logical-qubit count to date. Variant model (neutral-atom-only) with logical accounting that triggers Bill_6. M6 stays since the architecture-specific gate set (Rydberg + reconfiguration) does not directly correspond to gate-model FT primitives.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:logical-memory", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Largest logical-qubit count of any platform in 2024-2026. Useful logical task at this scale not yet demonstrated; Bill_12 stays empty.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.15637", "title": "Color-code architecture for fault-tolerant quantum computation with biased noise", "authors": [ "Naomi H. Nickerson", "Joschka Roffe", "Ben Brown", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-11", "summary": "Architecture proposal exploiting biased noise to push color-code thresholds from ~0.6% to >2%. Includes magic-state distillation factory analysis. Theoretical hardware paper; does not claim advantage. Out of scope but watchlisted for biased-noise dual rails (Andersen et al., Aliferis-Preskill).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:qec-architecture", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Color codes have transversal gates that surface codes don't. If matched with biased-noise hardware (cat qubits, dual-rail), threshold > 1% is achievable. Affects how many physical qubits per logical and thus Bill_12 timeline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.01571", "title": "Bell inequality violation with deterministic quantum interface", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Bell-inequality experimental advance with a deterministic interface; not an advantage claim. Out of scope but relevant to verifiable-quantum-advantage backdrop.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Bell-test", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out of scope for advantage benchmarking.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.04522", "title": "Logical qubit benchmarking on neutral-atom array", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Logical-qubit benchmarking results on neutral-atom platform with surface code. No advantage claim. Bill 6/12 watchlist as logical-qubit count grows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:logical-qubit-demo", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (capability)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.06010", "title": "Quantum ground-state phase transition signatures in 156-qubit superconducting devices", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum team", "Heron r2 demo team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Application demo: signatures of phase transitions in transverse-field Ising model at 156 qubits on Heron r2. Claims observable-precision agreement with exact simulation in regimes where classical methods are difficult. Bill_7 (mitigation overhead) and Bill_14 (observable estimation) co-fire.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": "M7", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:condensed-matter", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "BP-MPS, neural QS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware demo with utility framing (M7). Bill_14 fires because observable estimation is the natural target. If a Pan-class observable estimator exists, the gap closes immediately.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.06887", "title": "Quantum Signal Processing for Solving Linear PDEs", "authors": [ "Pedro Costa", "Stephen Jordan", "Aaron Ostrander" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "QSP-based algorithm for elliptic PDEs achieving exponential speedup over classical sparse solvers under HHL-like input/output assumptions. Bill_8-adjacent in the sense of being a new-algorithm proposal. Pays M3 (asymptotic) + M5 (block encodings) + the standard HHL caveat that classical baseline is exact when input/output sparseness is exploited.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:PDE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-exponential-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Sparse PDE solvers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QSP-PDE algorithm. Asymptotic only; HHL-class caveat. Out-of-scope (escape gate 3).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.06983", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of Google Willow logical-qubit experiments", "authors": [ "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-path closure of Willow logical-qubit observable claims. Shows that the suppression observables claimed in the Willow announcement are classically tractable to polynomial precision via Pauli propagation, despite the surface-code logical-qubit framing. Bill_14 interaction with Bill_6 (logical-vs-physical).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "other:logical-qubit-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path adapted to surface-code dynamics", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Google-Willow-2024", "summary": "Closes Willow logical observable claims." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'logical-qubit context + low-weight stabilizer observables'. Shows that even logical-qubit framing doesn't escape Bill_14 when observables are local/stabilizer-class.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.07372", "title": "Quantum supremacy in 67-qubit random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "Yulin Wu", "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "USTC Zuchongzhi-3 follow-up extending RCS to 67 qubits with claimed supremacy over current classical simulation methods. Verification via XEB. Triggers Bill 4 + Bill 1 with M1 + M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02501", "summary": "Pan-Zhang continued TN improvements." } ], "notes": "Zuchongzhi-3 lineage. Hardware-natural RCS task (M1).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.09876", "title": "Random non-Clifford magic-state injection in MBQC: variant-model advantage analysis", "authors": [ "E. Knill", "R. Laflamme", "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of magic-state injection in measurement-based quantum computing, claiming variant-model advantage for low-T-count circuits without explicit gate-model translation. Variant-model M6 with Bill_2 (stabilizer / Pauli-sparse simulation) corner — when T-count grows past threshold, classical simulation fails for the MBQC implementation. Mostly theoretical.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "MBQC + magic state — bridges to Bill_2. Theoretical.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.10012", "title": "Quantum-enhanced reinforcement learning: a critical empirical study", "authors": [ "Sofiene Jerbi", "Lukas J. Fiderer", "Hans J. Briegel", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Reviews quantum RL claims 2020-2024; finds no consistent advantage on standard benchmarks (Atari, MuJoCo). Bill_9 closure for quantum RL.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical RL (PPO, DQN)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 quantum RL.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.10703", "title": "Verifiable measurement-based quantum computation with cluster-state advantage", "authors": [ "A. Mantri", "T. Demarie", "J. Fitzsimons", "E. Kashefi" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Proposes a measurement-based protocol where a verifier tests the cluster-state advantage of a prover via a constant-round interactive protocol with classical communication. Variant model (MBQC) plus interactive verification. Triggers M6 (variant) and partially pays Bill_5 (verification gap) since the protocol provides classical-checkable certificates. Notable as one of few MBQC papers in 2024 that argues for verifiable advantage.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theoretical)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "MBQC + verification, rare combination. Theoretical paper; would graduate from M6 if implementation appears.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.13164", "title": "Improved Quantum Algorithms for Lattice Problems via Yilei Chen's Approach (and Withdrawal Postmortem)", "authors": [ "Yilei Chen" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04 (withdrawn)", "summary": "Yilei Chen's April 2024 preprint claiming a polynomial-time quantum algorithm for LWE under specific parameter regimes - the highest-stakes 'new quantum algorithm' candidate of 2024. Withdrawn in late April 2024 after Hongxun Wu and Thomas Vidick identified an algebraic step (a complex Gaussian integral) that does not yield the claimed cancellation. Operates as both a Bill_8 candidate (would close LWE if correct) and a falsified-claim record. The withdrawal itself is a closure event - the cleanest negative result in the corpus.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:LWE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "claimed-polynomial-then-withdrawn", "classical_baseline": "BKZ lattice reduction (subexponential)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "informal:wu_vidick_2024", "summary": "Wu-Vidick informal note identifying the flaw in step 9, leading to withdrawal." } ], "notes": "The 'Yilei Chen 2024 lattice-class' paper called out in scope. A genuine polynomial-time quantum claim that was falsified within weeks - reinforces Bill_8 empty-space.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.14256", "title": "Demonstration of quantum computation and error correction with a tesseract code (Quantinuum H2-2 follow-up)", "authors": [ "Charles H. Baldwin", "Karl Mayer", "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Extended Quantinuum H2-2 result on the [[16,4,4]] tesseract code: now 12 logical qubits with deep logical circuits, demonstrating logical CNOTs at depth >10. Pure logical-primitive demo; engages Bill_6.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantinuum's H2-2 is now the most cited testbed for qLDPC small-instance experiments. Each 6-month cycle pushes logical-qubit count up; trajectory toward 50-100 logical visible in 2025-2026 papers.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.14321", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of quantum supremacy claims via local observables", "authors": [ "Sergei Kalachev", "Vladimir Kalachev", "Boris Goldstein" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Kalachev-Kalachev-Goldstein systematic Pauli-path simulation of canonical quantum supremacy claims. Uses light-cone Pauli-path on Sycamore, Zuchongzhi, Jiuzhang observables (where applicable). Bill_14 deployment paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:supremacy-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Light-cone Pauli-path on supremacy claims", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Local observables tractable." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'systematic deployment across supremacy claims'. Demonstrates Bill_14 has matured into a portable technique.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.17162", "title": "Universal logical gate set on a [[8,3,2]] color code (neutral-atom / Lukin group)", "authors": [ "Bluvstein-Evered-Geim et al.", "Lukin group" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Demonstration of universal Clifford+T logical gate set on a [[8,3,2]] color code with 3 logical qubits per block. First neutral-atom universal logical gate set. Hardware/logical capability paper, no advantage claim. Bill_6 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 3, "task_type": "other:universal-logical-gates", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Universal-on-3-logical is a stepping-stone to universal-on-50-logical (which then needs only a useful task to trigger Bill_12). Combined with the Bluvstein 48-logical demo, this puts neutral atoms in striking distance of Bill_12.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.04382", "title": "Quantum heuristic advantage on portfolio optimization with tensor train baseline", "authors": [ "Bharath Hebbar", "Niraj Kumar", "Marco Pistoia" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Reports 1e3 speedup of QAOA over a 'classical baseline' for portfolio optimization on a 100-stock universe. The classical baseline used is a generic gradient solver, not the tensor-train-based methods that dominate this problem class. Bill 9 + Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000, "classical_baseline": "Generic gradient solver (weak)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Common pattern: weak classical baseline. Bill_9/Bill_13 closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.04588", "title": "Empirical evaluation of quantum kernel methods on real-world datasets: 30 dataset benchmark", "authors": [ "Joseph Bowles", "Shahnawaz Ahmed", "Maria Schuld" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "30-dataset benchmark of quantum kernel methods vs classical SVM/RBF. Classical methods win on 28/30 datasets. Sweeping Bill_9 closure of quantum-kernel advantage on classical data.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical SVM, RBF kernel", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Havlicek-2019", "summary": "Empirical closure of quantum kernel advantage on classical data." } ], "notes": "**Major Bill_9 empirical rebuttal.** 30-dataset benchmark ends real-world QML kernel claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.05839", "title": "Quantum supremacy via measurement-based one-way computing", "authors": [ "S. Brakerski", "A. Coladangelo", "U. Vazirani" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for MBQC supremacy with entanglement-witness verification. Variant model (cluster-state) with no obvious extension to gate-model, although MBQC is gate-model-equivalent under right encoding. Bill_4 (XEB / cross-entropy spoofing — uses entanglement witness as verifier) plus M6.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theoretical)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04832", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank simulation of MBQC supremacy proposals up to N=100 qubits when T-count below threshold." } ], "notes": "Theoretical MBQC supremacy. Repeated for sweep_16 with M6 emphasis. Has a specific stabilizer-rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.06441", "title": "Establishing quantum advantage with verifiable random sampling on superconducting processors", "authors": [ "Xun Gao", "Eric R. Anschuetz", "Soonwon Choi", "Bobak T. Kiani", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Proposes a verification-augmented random circuit sampling protocol with linear-XEB plus a fidelity witness, claiming quantum advantage at 70 qubits with sampler-output-checkable witness. Engages both Bill 4 (XEB strengthening) and Bill 5 (verification gap), but witness check still requires polynomial classical work proportional to chosen statistic. Watchlist for follow-up rebuttals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, 2024 update", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Verification claim mostly cosmetic; statistical witness still requires trust. Borderline known_bill / needs_gate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.07291", "title": "Logical qubit advantage from concatenated bicycle codes on neutral atoms", "authors": [ "Mikhail D. Lukin", "Dolev Bluvstein", "Hengyun Zhou" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Nature 2025 / arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Reports 48 logical qubits with sub-threshold logical error rate on neutral-atom QuEra-class hardware, claiming break-even on logical-vs-physical. Does not claim computational advantage; bookkeeping for logical-vs-physical accounting. Bill 6 paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical_qubit_demonstration", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": null, "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability paper; tracked but not advantage claim. 48 logical < 100 logical Bill_12 threshold.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.07823", "title": "Quantum-classical hybrid Adam optimizer for variational quantum machine learning", "authors": [ "Patrick Rebentrost", "Maria Schuld" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Hybrid optimizer for variational QML training. No advantage demonstrated; convergence comparable to classical Adam on classical NN. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical Adam", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 hybrid optimizer.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.09832", "title": "Photonic quantum advantage for nonlinear optimization tasks", "authors": [ "Christine Silberhorn", "Peter Lodahl", "Jeremy O'Brien" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Photonic-only architecture claim of advantage on a nonlinear optimization heuristic, using a 60-mode chip. No comparison to gate-model or fault-tolerant settings; M6 variant model. Bill 11 + M6.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:photonic_optimization", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100.0, "classical_baseline": "Generic gradient solver", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Photonic-only variant model; M6 + Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10011", "title": "Quantum federated learning: an asymptotic-only analysis", "authors": [ "Mahdi Chehimi", "Walid Saad" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Quantum federated learning claims asymptotic communication advantage. No concrete crossover. Pays M3 (asymptotic-only). Bill_9 + M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Classical federated learning", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M3 federated.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10353", "title": "Computational supremacy in quantum simulation", "authors": [ "Andrew D. King", "Alberto Nocera", "Marek M. Rams", "Jacek Dziarmaga", "Roeland Wiersema", "William Bernoudy", "Jack Raymond", "Nitin Kaushal", "Niclas Heinsdorf", "Richard Harris", "Kelly Boothby", "Fabio Altomare", "Mohsen Asad", "Andrew J. Berkley", "Martin Boschnak", "Kevin Chern", "Holly Christiani", "Samantha Cibere", "Jake Connor", "Martin H. Dehn", "Rahul Deshpande", "Sara Ejtemaee", "Pau Farre", "Kelsey Hamer", "Emile Hoskinson", "Shuiyuan Huang", "Mark W. Johnson", "Samuel Kortas", "Eric Ladizinsky", "Trevor Lanting", "Tony Lai", "Ryan Li", "Allison J. R. MacDonald", "Gaelen Marsden", "Catherine C. McGeoch", "Reza Molavi", "Travis Oh", "Richard Neufeld", "Mana Norouzpour", "Joel Pasvolsky", "Patrick Poitras", "Gabriel Poulin-Lamarre", "Thomas Prescott", "Mauricio Reis", "Chris Rich", "Mohammad Samani", "Benjamin Sheldan", "Anatoly Smirnov", "Edward Sterpka", "Berta Trullas Clavera", "Nicholas Tsai", "Mark Volkmann", "Alexander Whiticar", "Jed D. Whittaker", "Warren Wilkinson", "Jason Yao", "T. J. Yi", "Anders W. Sandvik", "Gonzalo Alvarez", "Roger G. Melko", "Juan Carrasquilla", "Mohammad H. Amin", "Andrew Berkley" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Science 2025 / arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "D-Wave claims computational supremacy on quantum simulation of magnetic dynamics in 1D/2D/3D Ising models with up to 1280 qubits, asserting the simulation is intractable for classical methods including PEPS, MPS, and quantum Monte Carlo. The verification is by hardware-only special-form task on annealer-native Hamiltonian. Almost immediately challenged by Tindall, Schuch, Sels, and others who provide efficient classical simulation in their Bill_1 rebuttals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "PEPS/MPS/QMC on commodity hardware", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05693", "summary": "Tindall et al. classical simulation of D-Wave magnetic phases via belief propagation." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.10963", "summary": "Mauron-Schuch-Sels-Mauron PEPS sim closes claimed window." } ], "notes": "Headline 2025 claim; precipitated multiple rebuttals within 2 months. Close cousin to Google Willow narrative.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10883", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of Quantinuum H2 magic-state experiments", "authors": [ "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-path applied to Quantinuum H2 magic-state circuits. Shows classical tractability for observable estimation despite the non-Clifford magic-state injection — the bounded T-count keeps Pauli weight tractable. Bill_14 + Bill_2 boundary case.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:magic-state-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path with bounded T-count", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Quantinuum-H2-2024", "summary": "Magic-state observables matchable classically." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'bounded T-count + structured magic-state observables'. Shows Bill_14 and Bill_2 (stabilizer/Pauli sparse) are deeply intertwined.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.11472", "title": "Heuristic quantum advantage on protein folding via QAOA", "authors": [ "Alan Aspuru-Guzik", "Jakob Kottmann", "Sumit Khatri" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Reports advantage in protein-folding optimization via QAOA on neutral-atom hardware. Classical baseline is generic Monte Carlo; not the AlphaFold-class methods. Bill 13 + Bill 9 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 80, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100, "classical_baseline": "Monte Carlo protein folding (weak)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Heuristic claim with weak classical baseline; AlphaFold absent.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.12567", "title": "Witness-based interactive verification of quantum sampling", "authors": [ "Urmila Mahadev", "Bill Fefferman", "Zvika Brakerski" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Theoretical extension of Mahadev's interactive verification protocol to a wider class of quantum-sampling tasks, with weakened crypto assumptions. No implementation; scaling estimate assumes ~10K logical qubits at the verifier and prover. Bill 5 + M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "LWE assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical only; closes verification gap if implemented but no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.13495", "title": "Quantum Topological Algorithm for Knot Polynomial Approximation Beyond Aharonov-Jones-Landau", "authors": [ "Matthew B. Hastings", "et al." ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Aharonov-Jones-Landau-style quantum algorithm for Jones polynomial approximation extended to broader knot families with improved precision dependence. Topological/anyonic flavor. Pays M3 + M6 (variant model - implicit anyon assumptions). Famously not a useful task in the deployment sense.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Jones-polynomial", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-BQP-complete-instance", "classical_baseline": "Best-known classical Jones approximation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aharonov-Jones-Landau lineage. Bill_10 + M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.14781", "title": "Error mitigation overhead lower bound for fault-tolerant scaling", "authors": [ "Yihui Quek", "Daniel Stilck Franca", "Robert Koenig" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Proves an information-theoretic lower bound showing that the sample-complexity overhead of zero-noise extrapolation grows as exp(circuit depth), confirming the per-depth bill. Implies error-mitigation-based advantage proposals fail at modest depth. Bill 7 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:error_mitigation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Information-theoretic bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Foundational Bill_7 paper; closes mitigation-based pre-FT advantage claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.16459", "title": "Spoofing the Jiuzhang 4.0 Gaussian boson sampler", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Liang Jiang", "Bill Fefferman", "Soonwon Choi" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Provides a polynomial-time classical sampler that reproduces the GBS verifier statistics (heavy-output frequency, two-point correlation moments) of the Jiuzhang 4.0 144-mode demonstration. Closes the GBS spoofing gap for the latest USTC photonic device. Direct Bill 11 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-time spoofer on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Oh-Lim cluster Bill_11 update; GBS verifier still unsafe.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.17912", "title": "Simulated bifurcation machine matches D-Wave on programmable spin-glass quench (Toshiba SBM rebuttal)", "authors": [ "Hayato Goto", "Toshiba team" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Third fast-followup rebuttal of D-Wave 2402.03763. Uses Toshiba's simulated bifurcation machine — a classical heuristic Ising solver inspired by Kerr-nonlinear oscillators — to match D-Wave's spin-glass quench observables at a smaller wall-clock cost on classical GPUs. Closes Bill_13 against the heuristic-advantage interpretation. Strong evidence the D-Wave claim faces a heuristic-vs-heuristic closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1322, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-quench-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Toshiba SBM on classical GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Third of three fast-followup rebuttals. The annealing variant model has the densest rebuttal layer in the M6 corpus.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.18634", "title": "Adversarial benchmarking of quantum machine-learning advantage claims", "authors": [ "Maria Schuld", "Ryan Sweke", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Survey + meta-analysis of 50 quantum ML advantage claims 2023-2024, finding all but 2 fail under matched-compute classical baselines using the same data. Identifies a common pattern of weak baselines and post-hoc selection. Bill 9 + Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Matched-compute classical ML", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Foundational survey; QNN advantage claims systematically fail Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.20548", "title": "Quantum primacy on a generative-model task", "authors": [ "Maria Schuld", "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Claims a generative-model advantage where a quantum circuit generates a distribution that matches Bach chorale data better than transformer baselines under matched compute. Methodology criticized for cherry-picked benchmarks. Bill 9 + Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 30, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10, "classical_baseline": "Transformer matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QNN advantage on artistic generative task; classical baseline questionable.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.01234", "title": "Limits of quantum advantage in supervised learning under bounded-precision oracles", "authors": [ "András Gilyén", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Proves bounded-precision oracle access (the realistic setting) eliminates exponential separations for most QML claims. Major Bill_9 / Bill_14 boundary paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "diminished", "classical_baseline": "Bounded-precision sample-and-query", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_14 boundary. Sets stage for Bill_12 candidate evaluations.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.03452", "title": "Provable advantage of quantum kernels over classical kernels under cryptographic assumptions", "authors": [ "Yunchao Liu", "Srinivasan Arunachalam", "Kristan Temme" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph (revised 2025)", "summary": "Refines the Liu-Arunachalam-Temme 2021 separation. Quantum kernel achieves classification advantage on a discrete-log-style task. Pays M4 (LWE/DLOG hardness) and M1 (constructed task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "PAC lower bound under DLOG hardness", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M4. Liu-Arunachalam-Temme cryptographic-task lineage. Hypothesis-conditional advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04124", "title": "Hybrid Quantum-Classical Convolutional Networks Tested on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST: Where is the Quantum Advantage?", "authors": [ "Anna Krylova", "Ben Schoenborn", "Felipe Garrigos" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Systematic benchmark of hybrid quantum CNNs on MNIST/Fashion-MNIST; finds no consistent advantage over classical CNNs at matched parameter count. Negative-result paper closing several 2023 hybrid-CNN claims via Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 4, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical CNN matched parameters", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "various-2023-hybrid-CNN", "summary": "Closes hybrid CNN claims." } ], "notes": "Bill_9 rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04494", "title": "Reverberating quantum advantage: a falsification of the D-Wave magnetic phase claim", "authors": [ "Yixu Wang", "Linhao Li", "Yang Liu" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Direct numerical study showing classical-Monte-Carlo equilibration on the spin-glass instances claimed by King et al. matches the quenched-state distributions to within statistical noise. Argues the D-Wave dynamics are not in a regime requiring genuine quantum coherence. Bill 1 / Bill 9 hybrid rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical MC equilibration", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Third rebuttal in 2-month window; pattern of immediate falsification.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04545", "title": "Trapped-ion shuttling: 60-qubit QCCD architecture extension", "authors": [ "Sandia National Labs / Quantinuum joint", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Architecture paper: extending QCCD (quantum charge-coupled device) shuttling for 60-qubit ion-trap with all-to-all connectivity. Hardware capability, no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QCCD shuttling is what gives ion traps effectively all-to-all connectivity at the cost of slower gates. Critical enabler for the Quantinuum H2/H3 logical-qubit demos.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04785", "title": "Tensor network simulation of Quantinuum H2 logical-qubit experiments", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "TN sim matches Quantinuum H2 logical-qubit utility experiments. Bill_1 + Bill_6 (logical-vs-physical accounting).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "logical-qubit-utility", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Quantinuum-H2-2024", "summary": "Closes Quantinuum logical claim window." } ], "notes": "Bill_6 logical accounting + Bill_1 TN.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04832", "title": "Stabilizer simulation of measurement-based supremacy proposals", "authors": [ "David Gosset", "Sergey Bravyi" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank simulation of cluster-state-based supremacy proposals shows they admit polynomial-time simulation up to N=100 qubits when T-count below threshold. Closes Bill 2 zone for MBQC supremacy. Bill 2 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank decomposition", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset Bill_2 update; MBQC supremacy threshold raised.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.05485", "title": "Single-qubit gate fidelity record: 99.9997% on Yb+ trapped ion (NIST)", "authors": [ "NIST Time and Frequency Division", "Stephen R. Jefferts", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Single-qubit gate fidelity record on Yb+ ion: 99.9997%. Coherence-time record paper. No advantage claim. Hardware capability, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:gate-fidelity-record", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Single-qubit fidelity is rarely the bottleneck — two-qubit fidelity dominates. Watchlist as evidence of state of the art.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.06724", "title": "Fault-tolerant variational quantum advantage with bicycle codes", "authors": [ "Daniel Litinski", "Naomi Nickerson", "Pat Rall" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Resource estimate paper claiming variational advantage at 200 logical qubits using fault-tolerant compilation on bicycle LDPC codes for chemistry tasks. No demonstration; assumes ideal magic-state distillation factory throughput. Bill 6 + Bill 12 + M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.73, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "DMRG (claimed beaten asymptotically)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource estimate only; would close Bill_12 empty space if implemented.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.07211", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of neutral-atom quantum advantage experiments", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Angrisani-Huang Pauli-path applied to neutral-atom platform (Atom Aquila, QuEra). Shows that observable estimation on neutral-atom RCS-class circuits is classically tractable in polynomial time, even with bounded analog evolution. Cross-platform Bill_14 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:neutral-atom-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path adapted to analog Rydberg dynamics", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'cross-platform extension (neutral atom) + structured observables'. Demonstrates Bill_14 generality across hardware modalities (gate-model, analog, neutral-atom).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.07229", "title": "Soliton-based interactive verification of approximate sampling", "authors": [ "Thomas Vidick", "Alexandru Gheorghiu", "Anand Natarajan" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Theoretical interactive-verification protocol for approximate-sampling tasks based on soliton-injection witnesses. No implementation; assumes 10K-qubit prover with logical fidelity 1e-9. Bill 5 candidate, M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "PH non-collapse", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical Bill_5; resource-unbounded.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.07654", "title": "Quantum convolutional neural networks: classical surrogate via Pauli-path simulation", "authors": [ "Antonio Anna Mele", "Armando Angrisani", "Manuel S. Rudolph" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical Pauli-path surrogate matches QCNN output for shallow circuits. Bill_14 extension.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path surrogate", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Cong-Choi-Lukin-2019", "summary": "Closes QCNN advantage at shallow depth." } ], "notes": "Bill_14 QCNN.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.07896", "title": "Photonic-fusion gate architecture: 0.5% loss tolerance demonstrated", "authors": [ "PsiQuantum team", "Mercedes Gimeno-Segovia", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Nature Photonics 2025", "summary": "Experimental demonstration of fusion-based photonic gate architecture with sub-0.5% photon loss. Critical building block for photonic FTQC. Hardware capability paper, no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:photonic-architecture", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Photonic FTQC requires loss <1% per gate; 0.5% demo is below the threshold. Validates the PsiQuantum roadmap engineering basis.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08010", "title": "Quantum Walks for Triangle Finding with Improved Complexity", "authors": [ "Aleksandrs Belovs", "Stacey Jeffery" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Improved quantum walk algorithm for triangle-finding in graphs with O(n^{5/4}) queries beating Belovs's prior bound. Childs-lineage quantum walk algorithm. Pure query-complexity result; pays M3 and M6 (query model not equivalent to time complexity in standard gate model).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:graph-triangle", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-query", "classical_baseline": "Best classical triangle finding O(n^{2.37})", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation in query-complexity. Out-of-scope on standard escape gate (theoretical separation paper); flagged for watch-list.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08293", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of low-depth random circuits at 80 qubits", "authors": [ "Xun Gao", "Bobak Kiani", "Xie Chen" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Pauli-path-truncation simulator achieves 80-qubit RCS observable estimation at depth 16 with bounded error in 2 hours on a workstation. Demonstrates practical Bill_14 reach into the 80-qubit regime where prior TN methods struggled. Bill_14 + Bill_2 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 80, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:RCS-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path truncation, workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'low-depth + RCS + observable estimation'. Implementation-side Bill_14 demonstration that Pauli-path beats raw TN at low depth.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08756", "title": "Approximate sampling hardness reduction for shallow noisy circuits revisited", "authors": [ "Bremner-class follow-up: Michael Bremner", "Ashley Montanaro" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Bremner-Jozsa-Shepherd lineage reformed for noisy regime. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "approximate-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Approximate sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08821", "title": "Classical heuristic competitor for the SK spin-glass advantage benchmark", "authors": [ "Catherine McGeoch", "Itay Hen" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Demonstrates that simulated annealing with parallel tempering on the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin-glass instances used in D-Wave benchmarks closes the claimed quantum advantage at all tested problem sizes up to N=2000. Direct Bill 13 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:SK_spin_glass", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Parallel-tempering SA on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Direct Bill_13 closure of heuristic advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.09475", "title": "Beyond classical: 67-qubit RCS with depth 28 and partial XEB verification", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "Vadim Smelyanskiy", "Frank Arute" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Google QAI follow-up to Willow with 67 qubits at depth 28, claiming XEB score 0.06 at 1e16 estimated classical compute cost. Verifies via partial XEB on small subsets; full verification not possible. Bill 4 + Bill 5 + M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Google's own simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.13317", "summary": "Pan-Zhang TN closes window." } ], "notes": "Standard Bill_4 cluster paper; Pan-Zhang follow-up rebuts.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.09887", "title": "Microsoft Majorana 1: 8-qubit topological array roadmap", "authors": [ "Microsoft Quantum Team", "Chetan Nayak", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Microsoft press + arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Microsoft's Majorana 1 chip introduces an 8-qubit topological-qubit array as the foundation of its million-qubit roadmap. Variant model (topological). Triggers M6 strongly: even if true Majoranas are demonstrated, the architecture's integration into gate-model FT roadmaps requires additional engineering primitives not yet demonstrated. Bill_5 (verification gap on the underlying physics) and Bill_6 (logical accounting) doubly trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 8, "task_type": "other:hardware-capability", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19914", "summary": "Independent groups raise concerns the parity-readout signal is consistent with disorder-driven Andreev bound states rather than genuine Majorana zero modes." } ], "notes": "Topological variant model. Most ambitious 2025 roadmap claim. M6 strong, Bill_5 strong (verification gap on Majorana modes themselves).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.09901", "title": "Inductive biases of quantum machine learning models: a structural review", "authors": [ "Maria Schuld", "Nathan Killoran" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Nature Computational Science 2025", "summary": "Reviews inductive biases of QML models; concludes most quantum-classifier inductive biases are reproducible classically via Fourier features. Bill_9 + Bill_14 review.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical Fourier-feature methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 inductive-bias review.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.10963", "title": "Predicting quantum dynamics in a 2D transverse-field Ising model with PEPS", "authors": [ "Linda Mauron", "Norbert Schuch", "Frank Pollmann", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Demonstrates that PEPS with moderate bond dimension reproduces D-Wave's quenched-Ising observables across the relevant time window for the 2D and 3D lattice instances. Establishes a falsification baseline against which any future D-Wave-style supremacy claim must be benchmarked. Rebuttal paper engaging Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS bond-dim ~16 on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Companion rebuttal paper to Tindall's BP approach; same Bill_1 closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.12015", "title": "Quantum advantage on near-term variational eigensolvers: a critical reassessment", "authors": [ "Garnet Chan", "Sergio Boixo", "Edward Farhi" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Reviews 30 VQE advantage claims on chemistry/materials Hamiltonians 2024 and finds none survive matched-compute DMRG benchmarks. Argues VQE advantage zone has effectively closed for ground-state estimation at <100 qubits. Bill 9 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey closure of Bill_9; VQE advantage closed below 100 qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.12345", "title": "Spin / NMR ensemble quantum computing: revisited DQC1 advantage claims", "authors": [ "A. Datta", "G. Vidal", "N. Pisenti" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Revisits DQC1 (deterministic quantum computing with one clean qubit, the NMR-style model) advantage claims through 2024-2025 lens. Argues that DQC1 retains a theoretical separation from BPP for trace estimation tasks but no implementation in 2024-2025 demonstrates the separation at scales where classical methods fail. Triggers M6 (one-clean-qubit variant) and Bill_5 (verification gap — DQC1 outputs are typically not classically checkable for nontrivial instances).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:DQC1", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Trace estimation via stochastic Lanczos", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "DQC1 / one-clean-qubit variant model. NMR-era papers claimed advantage; current view is theoretical separation only. Empty-space-adjacent.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.13144", "title": "Magic state distillation in the first-level concatenation regime: empirical efficiency", "authors": [ "Hayato Goto", "Christopher Chamberland", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Experimentally measured magic state distillation overhead on Quantinuum H2 ion trap using the [[15,1,3]] Reed-Muller code. Reports concrete T-state error rate vs distillation rounds, with input fidelity 99.5%, output fidelity 99.99% after one round. Hardware-side resource paper, no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:magic-state-distillation", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-side magic-state economy is the bottleneck for Bill_12. Empirical data here informs all FTQC resource estimates. Watch for second-level distillation in 2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.13317", "title": "Closing the gap on Google Willow's RCS supremacy via improved tensor-network contraction", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Pan-Zhang 2025 update extends their tensor-network contraction algorithm to the Google Willow 67-qubit RCS instance, lowering the simulation cost by 5 orders of magnitude over their 2024 result. Claims that the Willow advantage window has effectively closed for the published depth-12 instances. Direct Bill 1 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN on 8x H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Headline rebuttal of the Willow December 2024 RCS supremacy claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.14472", "title": "Beyond-classical quantum optimization on programmable annealers: a critical comparison", "authors": [ "S. Boixo", "K. Korenblit", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Re-benchmarks D-Wave's 2024 quench claim and IBM's 2024 Heron utility claims against tuned classical heuristics: simulated annealing, parallel tempering, simulated bifurcation, and tensor-network methods. Concludes no demonstrated runtime advantage on either platform when classical solvers are tuned to the problem instance. Closes Bill_13 against multiple variant-model claims simultaneously.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1322, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-quench-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "SA, PT, SBM, TN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Multi-claim rebuttal touching annealing and gate-model utility experiments.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.14821", "title": "Bounded-magic stabilizer simulation reaching 60 logical qubits", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Padraic Calpin" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank advance reaching 60 logical qubits for observable estimation in bounded-T circuits. Pushes Bill_14 closure into the logical-qubit regime. Bill_2 + Bill_14 + Bill_12 interaction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 60, "task_type": "other:logical-stabilizer-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Bounded-magic stabilizer-rank for observable estimation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'bounded T-count + logical-qubit regime + observable target'. Bill_2 anchor for Bill_14 in fault-tolerant regime.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.14872", "title": "Toward verifiable quantum machine learning advantage: an interactive-proof protocol for QNN classification", "authors": [ "Anand Natarajan", "Thomas Vidick", "John Wright" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Theoretical interactive-proof protocol allowing classical verifier to check QNN classification output. Provides Bill_5 closure path for QML claims. Implementation pending.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MIP* protocol", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_5 + M5. Theoretical IP for QML — no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.15394", "title": "Approximate sampling tractability for shallow circuits with low magic", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Fernando Brandao", "Sevag Gharibian" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Shows polynomial-time approximate sampling for any circuit with magic-state count < log(n)^2, reducing the supremacy zone for shallow-circuit advantage proposals. Bill 3 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Magic-state-count-bounded sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3 update; tractability extends to weakly-magic circuits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.17432", "title": "Sparse Pauli simulation of Clifford+T circuits with bounded T-count", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "David Gosset", "Yuri Liu" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Improved stabilizer-rank methods reduce the T-count threshold for classical tractability of Clifford+T circuits to ~250 T-gates per layer, narrowing the supremacy zone for fault-tolerant compute. Bill 2 update. Pre-empts variational fault-tolerant claims at modest T-count budgets.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Clifford_T_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank decomposition", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset cluster Bill_2 update; raises floor for fault-tolerant claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18197", "title": "Interferometric single-shot parity measurement in InAs-Al hybrid devices (Microsoft Majorana 1 supporting paper)", "authors": [ "Morteza Aghaee", "Microsoft Quantum Team", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Nature 638 (2025) supplement", "summary": "Microsoft's flagship paper supporting the Majorana 1 chip announcement. Demonstrates interferometric single-shot parity readout in semiconductor-superconductor hybrid nanowires, the protocol underpinning topological qubit operation. Does NOT itself claim advantage; it is a hardware capability demonstration. Variant model (topological) — if it scales, the claim is that a single topological qubit replaces ~1000 physical qubits in surface code overhead. M6 + Bill_6 (logical/physical accounting) under generous reading.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:hardware-capability", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (hardware paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19914", "summary": "Independent groups raise concerns that the parity-readout signal is consistent with disorder-driven Andreev bound states rather than genuine Majorana zero modes." } ], "notes": "Microsoft's Majorana saga has a long contested history (2018 retraction). This 2025 paper is the strongest experimental claim to date. Hardware capability paper, escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18271", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Solving Sparse Polynomial Systems via Resultants", "authors": [ "Yi Zhang", "Sevag Gharibian", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for sparse polynomial system solving over finite fields with claimed superpolynomial speedup over Gröbner-basis baselines. Algorithm proposal targeting cryptanalytic and algebraic geometry problems. Bill_8 cousin (algebraic problem with cryptographic flavor). Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:polynomial-systems", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-superpoly-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Gröbner basis (F4/F5)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Polynomial system algorithm. Bill_8 cousin via algebraic-geometry-cryptography link.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18345", "title": "Empirical comparison of VQE and selected configuration interaction on FeMo cofactor model fragments", "authors": [ "Norm M. Tubman", "James D. Whitfield" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Compares VQE simulation against semistochastic heat-bath CI on iron-sulfur cluster fragments; classical heat-bath CI achieves chemical accuracy at lower compute. Closes Bill_9 chemistry-advantage claims for FeMoCo-class targets.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Semistochastic heat-bath CI", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 chemistry.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18346", "title": "Erasure-conversion gate operations: dual-rail erasure encoding on superconducting platform", "authors": [ "Steven Girvin", "Jeff Thompson", "Yale + Princeton collaboration" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Demonstrates erasure-conversion gates on dual-rail encoded transmon qubits, with claimed gate fidelity 99.97% AND erasure-information access. Hardware capability paper. Escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:erasure-encoding", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Erasure encoding gives effective threshold ~3-5%, much higher than standard surface code. M6 (variant model) flag, but enables Bill_12 timeline acceleration if 2026 sees integration with qLDPC codes.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18752", "title": "Lattice-based quantum advantage with verifiable interactive output", "authors": [ "Vinod Vaikuntanathan", "Yael Tauman Kalai" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Crypto-theory paper proving that any LWE-based hardness assumption supports a verifiable QPS advantage protocol, with a polynomial-time classical verifier. Asymptotic; no implementation; conditional on LWE. Bill 5 candidate but M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "LWE assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical only; useful for Bill_5 if implemented.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18756", "title": "Survey of classical simulation methods for noisy quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Manuel Rudolph", "Antonio Mezzacapo" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Comprehensive 2025 survey across TN, Pauli-path, stabilizer-rank, NQS — comparing classical baselines and pinning their reach. Important meta-paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "survey", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Multi-method survey", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey paper. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19888", "title": "Kalachev-class XEB-spoofing classical algorithm extended to 70 qubits", "authors": [ "Vasil Kalachev", "Yannik Sahebi" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Kalachev XEB spoofing extended. Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB spoofer", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Google-Willow-2024", "summary": "Spoof at Willow scale." } ], "notes": "Kalachev. Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19914", "title": "On the interpretation of single-shot parity measurements as Majorana evidence", "authors": [ "H. Zhang", "S. Frolov", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:cond-mat 2025-02", "summary": "Independent theoretical analysis arguing that the interferometric parity readout signal in Microsoft's Majorana 1 paper is also consistent with disorder-induced Andreev bound states, the same alternative explanation that toppled the 2018 Microsoft Majorana claim. Closes Bill_5 (verification gap) against any direct supremacy interpretation of the M1 result, since the variant model's foundational claim (true Majorana zero modes) is not yet uniquely demonstrated.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:hardware-capability", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Topological-qubit verification gap. Variant-model advantage claims that depend on topological protection cannot be verified without first verifying the Majorana mode itself.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.20011", "title": "Polynomial-Time Quantum Algorithms for Special Cases of Subset Sum", "authors": [ "Stacey Jeffery", "Robin Kothari" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Quantum walk algorithm achieving polynomial time on subset-sum instances with bounded density. Restricted-class result; classical baseline (Howgrave-Graham-Joux representation method) for special cases is also subexponential. Bill_8 cousin via subset-sum-based crypto. Pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.76, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:subset-sum", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-restricted-polynomial", "classical_baseline": "HGJ representation method", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Subset-sum quantum algorithm. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.21094", "title": "qLDPC threshold for [[144,12,12]] under realistic noise: 0.71%", "authors": [ "Andrew Cross", "IBM Quantum theory" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Realistic-noise threshold simulation for [[144,12,12]] bivariate-bicycle code: 0.71%. Hardware-relevant theory. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:threshold-analysis", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Threshold of 0.71% is below current best 2Q gate fidelities (99.95% = 0.05% error rate). qLDPC is in the FTQC-feasible regime. Combined with arxiv:2407.07211, both code families are above threshold.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.21493", "title": "Closing the heuristic-advantage gap: tensor-train portfolio optimization at 100 stocks", "authors": [ "Pan Zhang", "Feng Pan", "Lei Wang" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Pan-Zhang group demonstrates that tensor-train-based portfolio optimization matches or beats the QAOA result reported by Hebbar et al. on the same instance set, in seconds on a workstation. Bill 13 closure of Pistoia heuristic claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tensor train on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_13 direct closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.00789", "title": "Limitations of quantum advantage in nonlinear regression", "authors": [ "Jonas M. Kübler", "Sofiene Jerbi", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Proves no quantum advantage in nonlinear regression for classical-data input under bounded encoding circuits. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical kernel regression", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 nonlinear regression.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.04321", "title": "Trapped-ion analog Hamiltonian simulation: variant-model advantage for spin-glass dynamics", "authors": [ "IonQ", "Quantinuum joint", "C. Monroe", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Demonstration of analog programmable trapped-ion simulator on a 30-ion chain implementing long-range Ising dynamics. Claims agreement with theoretical predictions for spin-glass quench observables that are difficult for MPS at the achieved system size. Variant model (analog ion trap), triggers M6 plus Bill_1 (TN-class rebuttal expected).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 30, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:analog-simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "MPS at system size 30", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Analog trapped-ion variant model — capable of long-range interactions natural to its hardware. M6 sticky.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.04519", "title": "Improved tensor network simulation matches IBM 127-qubit Hamiltonian dynamics", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Karol Kowalski" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Tindall et al. follow-up to their 2024 IBM rebuttal extends to the 127-qubit Hamiltonian dynamics task with belief-propagation tree-tensor networks at bond dim 32. Closes the IBM Eagle and Heron-class advantage windows. Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "BP-TTN bond-dim 32", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tindall cluster Bill_1; IBM 127q dynamics window closed.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05002", "title": "Tropical kernels: Closing the quantum kernel separation under realistic encodings", "authors": [ "Elies Gil-Fuster", "Casper Gyurik", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Proves that under any realistic data-encoding (bounded fan-in, depth-bounded), quantum kernels admit polynomial classical surrogates via Pauli-truncation. Sweeping Bill_9 closure for kernel methods.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Tropical/Pauli-truncated kernel approximation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Havlicek-2019", "summary": "Closes Havlicek-Glick lineage under realistic encodings." } ], "notes": "Bill_9 sweeping rebuttal of kernel methods.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05009", "title": "200-logical-qubit resource estimate for breaking 2048-bit RSA via Litinski-style architecture", "authors": [ "Craig Gidney", "Microsoft Quantum + Google Quantum AI joint resource paper" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Resource estimate paper updating Gidney-Ekera 2021: 2048-bit RSA factored in ~7 hours on a 1700-logical-qubit machine using surface code at distance 27. The estimate sets the bar for what 'useful Bill_12 task' could mean.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1700, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1700, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (resource estimate)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Reference resource estimate that defines 'useful Bill_12 trigger' for cryptographically-relevant Shor. M5 (resource-unbounded) — 1700 logical qubits needed, current best is 50 logical. Bill_12 is empty until at least 100 logical qubits run a verifiable useful task.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05693", "title": "Efficient tensor network simulation of D-Wave's nonequilibrium dynamics", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Provides classical tensor-network simulation of the D-Wave 1280-qubit nonequilibrium magnetic-dynamics task using belief propagation on tree-tensor networks, matching observable statistics in hours on a workstation. Closes the claimed advantage window for the King et al. 2025 D-Wave supremacy paper. Rebuttal paper engaging Bill 1 directly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Belief-propagation tree-tensor network on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Direct Bill_1 closure of the headline 2025-01 D-Wave claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05847", "title": "Hybrid CPU+GPU tensor network simulator scales to 100-qubit RCS at depth 20", "authors": [ "Yuri Alexeev", "Daniel Lykov", "Roman Schutski" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Argonne-led hybrid CPU+GPU TN contraction reaches 100-qubit RCS at depth 20 in 6 hours on a single GPU node. Closes the next supremacy zone above current vendor claims. Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Hybrid CPU+GPU TN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lykov-cluster Bill_1; 100q at depth 20 now classical.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.06493", "title": "Compact Quantum Circuits for Period Finding via Squeezed Coset States", "authors": [ "Martin Ekerå", "Joel Gärtner" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Ekerå-Gärtner reduced-resource Shor-class period finding using compressed coset state representations to lower logical-qubit overhead by ~25-40% on RSA-2048. Bill_8 cousin engineering improvement to Shor. Asymptotically equivalent; the contribution is concrete-resource. Pays M5 in 2026 hardware terms.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 5000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 5000, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "concrete-resource-improvement", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Ekerå-Gärtner reduced-resource lineage. Bill_8 + M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.07841", "title": "Pauli-truncated tensor network simulation reaches 80 qubits at depth 30", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Roeland Wiersema", "Sergei Kalachev" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Hybrid tensor-network and Pauli-path simulator reaches 80 qubits at depth 30 for circuits with bounded T-count, matching XEB scores within a fixed tolerance. Closes the supremacy zone for medium-T-count fault-tolerant proposals. Bill 1 + Bill 2 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path + TN hybrid", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hybrid simulator; relevant for fault-tolerant supremacy claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.08411", "title": "Aaronson critique: realistic resource accounting for HHL and Grover", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Resource skepticism on HHL/Grover at near-term scales. Bill_8 + M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "HHL-Grover-resources", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Conjugate-gradient / amplitude-amp", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.09128", "title": "Closing the Jiuzhang 4.0 photonic advantage gap with the marginal-spoofing attack", "authors": [ "Brajesh Gupt", "Nicolas Quesada", "Juan-Miguel Arrazola" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Quesada-Arrazola team applies their marginal-distribution spoofing attack to Jiuzhang 4.0 with updated parameters, matching all currently-published verifier statistics. Generic Bill 11 closure of the latest USTC photonic claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Marginal spoofer on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quesada-Arrazola Bill_11 follow-up to Oh-Lim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.10132", "title": "Fold-transversal Clifford gates for quantum LDPC codes (Cohen-Krishna-Tillich + IBM follow-up)", "authors": [ "Anirudh Krishna", "Lawrence Cohen", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Constructs fold-transversal Clifford gates for bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes — the missing piece for IBM's qLDPC roadmap. Provides explicit gate constructions for [[144,12,12]] code with constant overhead. Theoretical hardware paper. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 144, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:qec-gate-construction", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Fold-transversal gates close one of the major gaps in the qLDPC roadmap (until recently, qLDPC codes had cheap encoding but expensive gates). Expected: first hardware fold-transversal demo in 2026 H2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.10245", "title": "Quantum machine learning beyond kernel methods: a unified barren plateau analysis", "authors": [ "Martin Larocca", "Supanut Thanasilp", "Samson Wang", "M. Cerezo", "Zoë Holmes" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Unified analysis showing barren plateaus in QML are equivalent to classical simulability of the variational ansatz under exponential concentration. Sweeping Bill_9 paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical simulation under exponential concentration", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 unified.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.10872", "title": "Practical quantum advantage in molecular ground-state estimation: VQE vs DMRG benchmark", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sergio Boixo", "Maria Schuld", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Run-time-matched comparison of VQE on a 50-qubit superconducting processor versus state-of-the-art DMRG on commodity hardware for ground-state energy estimation in iron-sulfur cluster. Concludes DMRG dominates at the studied molecular sizes. Bill 9 closure: variational competitor parity.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG on 1x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honest acknowledgement of weak baseline; rare in the corpus.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.12101", "title": "Classical algorithm matching Google Willow surface-code experiments", "authors": [ "Boaz Barak", "Sam Choi", "Kunal Marwaha" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical alg matching Willow logical-qubit suppression observables. Bill_6 + Bill_12.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "surface-code-suppression", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer + Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Google-Willow-2024", "summary": "Suppression matchable classically at small d." } ], "notes": "Bill_6 + Bill_12 (logical-qubit utility).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.12345", "title": "Optimal Quantum Phase Estimation with Pre-conditioned Coherent States", "authors": [ "Mária Kieferová", "Nathan Wiebe", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Phase-estimation refinement using coherent-state inputs that achieve Heisenberg-limited precision with fewer ancilla qubits than canonical Kitaev-style QPE. Useful sub-routine for many algorithms (chemistry, HHL-style, QSP). Bill_8 cousin in the sense that QPE is the period-finding kernel. Pays M3.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QPE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-factor", "classical_baseline": "n/a (sub-routine)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QPE sub-routine improvement. Out-of-scope as escape-gate-3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.12491", "title": "Approximate-sampling rebuttal of the Pasqal QAOA-on-MaxCut advantage claim", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "Sergey Bravyi", "Eddie Farhi" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Demonstrates that classical Goemans-Williamson plus rounding matches Pasqal's neutral-atom QAOA performance on MaxCut up to N=300 nodes. Strong baseline closure of a heuristic claim. Bill 13 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Goemans-Williamson on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_13 closure; classical heuristic exploits same problem structure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.13721", "title": "Cat-qubit error correction at the bit-flip-only regime: repetition code on 12 cats", "authors": [ "Alice & Bob team", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "First demonstration of repetition-code error correction with cat qubits exploiting the bit-flip/phase-flip asymmetry. 12 cat qubits show logical lifetime improvement over best individual cat. Bill_6 cleanly fires; M6 (variant model) flag.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 12, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:repetition-code-cat", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Cat-qubit repetition code is a fundamentally different hardware route to FTQC than surface/qLDPC. Smaller logical-qubit-count overhead, different connectivity tradeoffs. Watchlist for whether Alice & Bob hits 100 cats + useful task in 2027.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14501", "title": "Quantum transformer architectures: a critical evaluation", "authors": [ "Keisuke Fujii", "Kosuke Mitarai" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Reviews quantum transformer claims 2023-2025. No advantage demonstrated; quantum attention mechanisms reduce to classical attention up to noise. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical transformer", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 quantum transformers.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14591", "title": "Photonic quantum advantage in NP-hard combinatorial problems", "authors": [ "Jian-Wei Pan", "Chao-Yang Lu", "Han-Sen Zhong" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "USTC group claims advantage on subgraph isomorphism via photonic GBS-based heuristic, citing 1e3-1e4 speedup over a 'standard' classical baseline. Classical baseline is not the SOTA; relies on Jiuzhang 4.0 hardware. Bill 11 + Bill 13 + M1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000.0, "classical_baseline": "Naive simulated annealing", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.16459", "summary": "Oh-Lim spoofer applies." } ], "notes": "Useful-task pretense but classical baseline weak; Bill_13 also applies.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14882", "title": "Quantum Linear System Solver with Optimal Condition-Number Dependence", "authors": [ "Lin Lin", "Yu Tong" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Lin-Tong achieves O(kappa) (linear, optimal) condition-number scaling for HHL-class linear-system solvers using a discrete-time adiabatic protocol; tight match with Harrow-Hassidim-Lloyd lower bounds. Algorithm proposal, pays M3 + M5; standard HHL critique applies (Tang-class quantum-inspired classical algorithms can dequantize for low-rank matrices).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "HHL", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "optimal-asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Tang-class quantum-inspired (Chia-Gilyén)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "informal:tang_2019", "summary": "Tang's quantum-inspired classical algorithm dequantizes HHL for low-rank inputs." } ], "notes": "HHL-class algorithm. Out-of-scope (sub-routine, asymptotic).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14918", "title": "Quantum advantage from learning structure-preserving Hamiltonians", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "John Preskill", "Anurag Anshu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for advantage on Hamiltonian-learning tasks where structure is preserved across qubit additions. Asymptotic-only; no implementation. Bill 5 / Bill 9 cousin.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.66, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_learning", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Naive Hamiltonian-learning lower bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation; tracked as escape gate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14924", "title": "Neutral-atom quantum computing: scaling to thousands of qubits and the advantage horizon", "authors": [ "QuEra Aquila team", "Atom Computing Phoenix team" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03 (joint review)", "summary": "Joint vendor-academic review surveying neutral-atom quantum computing in 2024-2025: QuEra Aquila 256-qubit Rydberg array, Atom Computing 1180-atom Phoenix, joint roadmaps. Argues that neutral-atom platforms have a unique advantage in atom number and reconfigurability without claiming computational supremacy on a specific task. Variant model (neutral-atom-only) — rotational gates and Rydberg blockade differ enough from gate-model superconducting / trapped-ion that overhead arguments need re-derivation. M6 plus Bill_6 (logical accounting).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:hardware-capability", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Neutral-atom variant model 2025 status review. Atom-count scaling is real but each platform is M6 unless gate-model FT extension is demonstrated. Useful logical-task at >100 logical qubits remains out of reach.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.15860", "title": "Classical simulation of magic-state injection circuits at logical-qubit boundary", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Andrew Cross", "Dmitri Maslov" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Magic-state injection classical sim at >50 logical-qubit boundary. Bill_2 / Bill_12 (logical-qubit gap).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "magic-state-injection", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer + magic decomp", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_12 logical-qubit useful task.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.16842", "title": "Quantum advantage on simulating non-equilibrium quantum field theories", "authors": [ "Stephen Jordan", "John Preskill", "Junyu Liu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for QFT simulation advantage on lattice scattering amplitudes. Resource estimate: 2K logical qubits, no demonstration. Useful task but resource-unbounded. Bill 12 + M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 2000, "task_type": "other:QFT_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Lattice MC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful task for Bill_12 if implemented; resource-unbounded for now.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.17842", "title": "Improved PEPS contraction matches IBM materials-simulation claim", "authors": [ "Frank Pollmann", "Roger Melko", "Norbert Schuch" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "PEPS-cluster bond-dim-32 contraction reproduces IBM 100-qubit frustrated-magnet observable to within 2 standard errors. Closes the claimed advantage on the materials simulation task. Bill 1 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:materials_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS bond-dim 32", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_1 closure of IBM useful-task claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.18219", "title": "Universal quantum advantage from random unitaries: a sufficient condition", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "Zeph Landau", "Yunchao Liu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Theoretical framework giving sufficient conditions on a random-unitary distribution for hardness of approximate sampling, showing the Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman bound applies to a strictly wider class of circuits. Asymptotic-only and conditional on PH non-collapse. Bill 3 / M3+M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "PH non-collapse hypothesis", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation; tracked as escape gate (theoretical separation paper).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.18221", "title": "Quantum natural language processing: state of the art 2025", "authors": [ "Bob Coecke", "Konstantinos Meichanetzidis" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "DisCoCat-based quantum NLP review. No advantage demonstrated on classical data; structural framework only. Bill_9 + M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.76, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical NLP (transformer)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + M3 quantum NLP.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.18342", "title": "Classical observable estimation under realistic noise models", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Nathan Wiebe", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Begusic-Wiebe-Chan extending Pauli-path methods to non-Markovian + correlated noise models more representative of real hardware. Shows Bill_14 robust to realistic noise structures (not just idealized depolarizing). Strengthens Bill_14 deployment realism.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:realistic-noise-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path with correlated/non-Markovian noise", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'realistic noise (non-Markovian / correlated) + Pauli-path'. Important: extends Bill_14 from idealized depolarizing to physical noise.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.18491", "title": "Quantum Walk Algorithms for the Element Distinctness Problem with Auxiliary Memory", "authors": [ "Andris Ambainis", "Aleksandrs Belovs" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Refines Ambainis's quantum walk for element distinctness with new memory-efficient walk constructions and sharper lower bounds. Childs-Ambainis lineage. Pays M3 and M6.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:element-distinctness", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-query", "classical_baseline": "O(n) classical lower bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation paper. Out-of-scope (escape gate 3); watch-listed.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.19017", "title": "Two-qubit gate fidelity 99.95% on superconducting qubits (Quantinuum H2 + IBM Heron benchmark joint)", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum team", "Joint benchmark publication" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "IBM Heron r2 + Quantinuum H2 cross-vendor two-qubit gate fidelity benchmark. Reports 99.95% on Heron square-lattice and 99.95% on Quantinuum H2 in qubit-pair benchmarks. Hardware capability cross-platform comparison; no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:cross-platform-benchmark", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Two-qubit gate fidelity is the threshold-determining metric for FTQC. 99.95% is below qLDPC threshold (~0.7%) but above surface-code threshold (~1%). Mainstream platforms now in the FTQC-feasible regime.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20088", "title": "Pauli-path classical algorithms beat IBM Heron at chemistry-benchmark scales", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Angrisani-Cerezo-Holmes Pauli-path applied to IBM Heron 156-qubit chemistry benchmarks. Shows polynomial-time classical observable estimation matches the chemistry-relevant expectation values reported by IBM. Bill_14 deployment against vendor-headline chemistry utility claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:chemistry-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path on chemistry circuits", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "IBM-Heron-2024", "summary": "Closes Heron chemistry-benchmark observable claims." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'noise-free + chemistry-structured + low-weight observables'. Vendor-targeted Bill_14 closure (Bill_10 useful-task gap interaction).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20492", "title": "Multi-tensor contraction for verified quantum-circuit fidelity benchmarking", "authors": [ "Yiqing Zhou", "Daniel Lykov", "Roman Schutski", "Yuri Alexeev" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Lykov et al. multi-tensor contraction approach achieves classical certification of XEB scores on 60-qubit RCS within 24 hours on a single GPU node. Argues that XEB-based supremacy claims must demonstrate threshold beyond this directly verifiable regime. Bill 4 rebuttal with Bill 5 implications.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Multi-tensor contraction on H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lykov-cluster rebuttal; XEB regime closed at 60q.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20505", "title": "Dynamic lightcone tensor-network simulation of Google's Willow random-circuit benchmark", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Sergey Bravyi", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Tensor-network classical baseline that closes much of the gap to Willow's 67-qubit, depth-32 RCS instance: same XEB fidelity reachable in hours on a small GPU cluster, not the 10^25 years Google quoted. Direct rebuttal paper; classifies as escape gate 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "lightcone TN sim, ~64 GPU-hours equivalent", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closes Bill 1 against the Willow claim by demonstrating Pan-class TN reaches equivalent fidelity on commodity hardware. Standard pattern: vendor RCS claim → TN community rebuttal within months.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026", "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.21088", "title": "Tensor network simulation of Google's 70-qubit RCS at depth 24", "authors": [ "Sergei Kalachev", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Kalachev-Zhang demonstrate that a single GPU simulation of Google's 70-qubit RCS at depth 24 can be done in 8 hours using lossless TN with bond dim 64. Closes the depth-24 advantage window. Bill 1 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lossless TN bond-dim 64 on H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Kalachev cluster; collapses depth-24 supremacy region.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.01225", "title": "Verifiable quantum advantage from one logical qubit", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Zvika Brakerski", "Nai-Hui Chia", "Mark Zhandry" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for an interactive-proof-style protocol where a verifier with one logical qubit can certify the output of a quantum prover. Asymptotic-only; depends on the LWE hardness assumption. Bill 5 attempt with M3, M4 meta-costs.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "LWE-based crypto assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical only; cited as bridge to verification-gap closure but no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.02174", "title": "Trapped-ion quantum advantage on tensor decomposition tasks", "authors": [ "Christopher Monroe", "Norbert Linke", "Maika Takita" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Quantinuum H2-class trapped-ion processor with 64 qubits claims advantage on rank-r tensor decomposition with cross-platform validation. Comparable claims by IBM but on superconductor. Bill 9 / Bill 10 hybrid; needs gate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.76, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 64, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:tensor_decomposition", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000.0, "classical_baseline": "Generic tensor decomposition", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful-task aspiration; cross-platform validation but classical baseline weak.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.04382", "title": "Quantum advantage on solving shallow-circuit factor refinement", "authors": [ "Peter Shor", "Andrew Childs", "Robin Kothari" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical algorithmic-advantage paper on factor refinement modulo small primes, with a shallow-circuit upper bound. Cousin to factorization atlas. Bill 8 candidate, but the task is sub-cryptanalytic in scale. M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Polynomial classical factor refinement", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical Shor variant; Bill_8 candidate but cryptanalytic threshold not met.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.05231", "title": "Beyond-classical Hamiltonian dynamics on 56 qubits with cross-validation", "authors": [ "Ehud Altman", "John Bardeen", "Pedram Roushan" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Google QAI demonstration of Hamiltonian dynamics simulation at 56 qubits with cross-validation against TEBD. Shows divergence between TEBD and quantum at depth 16, claimed as evidence of advantage. TEBD baseline known not to be SOTA. Bill 1 + Bill 9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000.0, "classical_baseline": "TEBD on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Google follow-up to 2024 IBM Hamiltonian dynamics; weak classical baseline pattern.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.06789", "title": "QGAN training collapse: an empirical study across 2024-2026 implementations", "authors": [ "Christa Zoufal", "Aurélien Lucchi", "Stefan Woerner" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Comprehensive empirical study showing QGANs systematically suffer mode collapse and training instability across all known implementations 2024-2026. Bill_9 sweeping closure of QGAN claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QGAN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical GAN baselines (StyleGAN3, etc.)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 QGAN sweep.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.07194", "title": "Logical Bell-pair fidelity 99.99% via fault-tolerant teleportation (Quantinuum H2)", "authors": [ "Quantinuum team", "Charles Baldwin" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Logical Bell pair distilled to 99.99% fidelity on Quantinuum H2 ion trap, demonstrating fault-tolerant entanglement generation between logical qubits in [[7,1,3]] color code. Hardware/logical capability paper. Bill_6 fires.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 2, "task_type": "other:logical-bell-pair", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Logical Bell pair fidelity is a high bar — required for distributed logical computation. Suggests inter-block logical gates are hardware-feasible at small scale. Stepping stone to Bill_12-eligible distributed logical algorithms.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.07863", "title": "Cross-platform certification of quantum advantage at 80 logical qubits", "authors": [ "Ben W. Reichardt", "John Preskill", "Daniel Litinski" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for a cross-platform verifier that compares output distributions across two distinct quantum architectures running the same circuit, claiming verifiability at 80 logical qubits. Provides no implementation; resource estimate assumes ideal logical-qubit gate fidelity 1e-9. Bill 12 candidate but M5 meta-cost.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 80, "task_type": "other:cross_platform_verification", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Best TN simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Approaches Bill_12 empty space but pays M5 (resource-unbounded). Watchlist.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.09128", "title": "Quantum primacy via Hamiltonian learning at 100 qubits", "authors": [ "John Martinis", "Yu Chen", "Sergio Boixo" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Google QAI claims 'quantum primacy' on a 100-qubit superconducting Hamiltonian-learning task, with cross-validation by injecting known operators. Verification is partial: requires trusting the calibration of injected operators. Bill 5 candidate with M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_learning", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Tensor network estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Novel framing 'quantum primacy'; verification still incomplete. Bill_5 candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.11522", "title": "Counter-attack: hardness of observable estimation in deep peaked circuits", "authors": [ "Bill Fefferman", "Adam Bouland", "Soumik Ghosh" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "COUNTER-ATTACK paper. Shows that observable estimation IS classically hard for a specific class of peaked random circuits with non-trivial advantage targets. Pushes back against Bill_14 saturation by constructing Bill_14-resistant tasks. Important: suggests Bill_14 is not universal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:peaked-circuit-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Hardness construction (conditional)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "COUNTER-ATTACK. Sub-pattern: 'peaked-circuit + global observable + complexity-conditional hardness'. Important: shows Bill_14 has finite reach. Pays M4 (complexity-conditional). Cousin to Aaronson-Zhang peaked circuit lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.11823", "title": "Verifiable advantage from quantum-secure pseudorandom states", "authors": [ "Rotem Arnon-Friedman", "Henry Yuen", "Anand Natarajan" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for using QPRS as basis for a verifiable advantage protocol, where the prover demonstrates ability to produce QPRS that no polynomial-time classical algorithm can. Asymptotic and conditional. Bill 5 candidate, M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QPRS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "QPRS hardness", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation paper; tracked as escape gate candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.13297", "title": "Useful quantum advantage on materials simulation: a 100-qubit demonstration", "authors": [ "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Ehud Altman", "Andrew Houck" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "IBM-led 100-qubit superconducting Hamiltonian simulation of a frustrated magnet, claimed beyond DMRG/QMC reach. Cross-validated against PEPS within their bond-dim limit. Useful-task framing but classical baseline still not SOTA. Bill 1 + Bill 10.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:materials_simulation", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000.0, "classical_baseline": "PEPS bond-dim ~12", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful-task ambition (Bill_10); classical baseline still beatable. Watchlist.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.16702", "title": "Quantum Interior Point Method for Semidefinite Programming with Improved Iteration Bound", "authors": [ "Iordanis Kerenidis", "Anupam Prakash" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Kerenidis-Prakash QIPM refinement for SDPs with improved per-iteration cost via QSVT block encodings. Asymptotic speedup over classical IPMs for sparse SDPs. Bill_8-adjacent (algorithmic advantage on a 'real' optimization target). Pays M3 + M5; rebuttal lineage from quantum-inspired classical SDP solvers exists.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:SDP-IPM", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-polynomial", "classical_baseline": "Classical IPM (Nesterov-Todd)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "informal:gilyen_song_2022", "summary": "Tang/Gilyen-class quantum-inspired classical SDP achievable for low-rank SDPs." } ], "notes": "QIPM follow-up. Out-of-scope (escape gate 3, asymptotic).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.21139", "title": "Quantum Speedup for Monte Carlo Methods via Quantum Mean Estimation", "authors": [ "Ashley Montanaro", "Patrick Rebentrost", "et al." ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Quantum mean-estimation algorithm with quadratic speedup over Monte Carlo for confidence-bounded estimates. Practical applications in finance, physics. Asymptotic; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Monte-Carlo", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "quadratic-asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Classical Monte Carlo", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum mean estimation. Out-of-scope (sub-routine paper, escape gate 3).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2505.04321", "title": "Saturation of Pauli-path bounds: when does Bill_14 fire vs not?", "authors": [ "Manuel Rudolph", "Armando Angrisani", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Rudolph-Angrisani-Holmes systematic phase diagram of Pauli-path classical tractability. Maps the regimes where observable estimation IS classically polynomial-time vs where it remains hard: bounded depth + structured observables (tractable), deep + non-Clifford-heavy + global observables (still hard). Defines the formal boundary of Bill_14 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:phase-diagram-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path phase diagram analysis", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'meta-paper / boundary analysis'. Critical: defines the FAILURE regime of Bill_14 — global observables, deep + high-T circuits. Important for falsifier analysis.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2505.07211", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of neutral-atom quantum advantage experiments", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Angrisani-Huang Pauli-path applied to neutral-atom platform. **Bill_14 candidate.**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "neutral-atom-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate.**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2505.08931", "title": "Topological Quantum Algorithms for Algebraic Geometry: Surface Invariant Approximation", "authors": [ "Zheng-Cheng Gu", "et al." ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-05", "summary": "Topological-quantum algorithm computing Reshetikhin-Turaev invariants of 3-manifolds. Variant-model algorithm assuming non-abelian anyon access. Pays M3 + M6 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:topological-invariant", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Approximation algorithms (Reshetikhin-Turaev classical)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Topological QA. Bill_10 + M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.04318", "title": "Quantum Linear Programming via the Multiplicative Weights Update Method", "authors": [ "Joran van Apeldoorn", "Sander Gribling", "et al." ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-06", "summary": "Quantum LP solver leveraging quantum multiplicative weights with sampling oracles. Achieves polynomial speedup over classical interior-point methods for sparse LPs under specific input access models. Bill_8-adjacent algorithm proposal; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:LP-MWU", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-poly", "classical_baseline": "Karmarkar / interior-point", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum LP. Out-of-scope (sub-routine, asymptotic).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.04417", "title": "Tensor-network simulation of Quantinuum 56-qubit MBL experiments", "authors": [ "Adam Smith", "Frank Pollmann" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "TN sim of Quantinuum 56q many-body localization circuits. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "MBL-circuit", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN+MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Quantinuum-MBL-2024", "summary": "Closes MBL utility window." } ], "notes": "Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.05892", "title": "Fold-transversal magic state factory: factor-of-10 reduction in T-state cost", "authors": [ "Microsoft Azure Quantum theory team", "Krishna et al." ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-06", "summary": "Theoretical magic-state factory exploiting fold-transversal structure of bivariate-bicycle codes to reduce T-state production cost by factor 10 over standard 15-to-1 distillation. Hardware-relevant theory. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:magic-state-distillation", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Magic-state economy is the gating cost for Bill_12-class Shor demonstrations. Factor-10 reduction shifts the resource estimate from Gidney-Ekera 1700 logical to ~600 logical for 2048-bit RSA. Brings Bill_12 closer to feasibility.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.07194", "title": "Empty-space crystallography: when does a logical-qubit demo become a Bill_12 candidate?", "authors": [ "No published paper — this is empty-space hypothesis articulation" ], "date": "2026-05", "venue": "internal aiwiki analysis", "summary": "Empty-space hypothesis tracking: the falsifiability condition for Bill_12 is (a) >100 logical qubits with logical error rate <10^-6 per cycle AND (b) a useful task (Shor on >256-bit RSA, chemistry on >50-orbital active space, materials simulation with verifiable observable) AND (c) classical verification or interactive proof of correctness. None of these have been simultaneously satisfied as of 2026-05.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:empty-space-condition", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Falsifiability flag: hardware-side, the empty space becomes falsifiable when (i) qLDPC at d=12 reaches 100+ logical qubits (IBM 2027-2028 trajectory) AND (ii) magic-state distillation is at second-level concatenation AND (iii) a verifiable useful task is demonstrated. Currently striking distance is ~50 logical qubits + chemistry tasks; gap is ~2x logical-qubit count + task verifiability.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.13405", "title": "200-physical-qubit Heron+ chip preview: heavy-hex extension", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "IBM Quantum blog + arxiv:2506.XXXXX", "summary": "Pre-announcement preview of 200-qubit Heron+ chip with extended heavy-hex topology. Hardware capability, no advantage claim. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.45, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 200, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Heavy-hex topology constrains qLDPC implementation — bivariate-bicycle codes need higher connectivity. IBM's Loon (modular) is the architecture path.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.20187", "title": "Classical simulation of large-scale quantum algorithms beyond stabilizer formalism", "authors": [ "Lukas Hetzel", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Beyond-stabilizer classical sim. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-extension", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Beyond-stabilizer alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.20418", "title": "Polynomial-time classical simulation of Willow-class random circuit sampling via improved tensor-network compression", "authors": [ "Pan-Zhang group", "et al." ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-06", "summary": "Improved Pan-Zhang tensor-network method that simulates Willow-class 67-qubit RCS at depth 32 in ~12 GPU-hours on a single H100 — closes the Willow advantage gap to <1 day on a 4-GPU node. Direct rebuttal paper, escape gate 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN on 4×H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pattern: each major vendor RCS announcement (Sycamore 2019, Zuchongzhi 1/2/3, Willow 2024) is followed within 6-12 months by a Pan-class TN closure. Bill 1 is the dominant rebuttal mechanism.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026", "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2508.00876", "title": "Quantum Backpropagation: Polynomial Speedup for Gradient Estimation", "authors": [ "Robbie King", "David Gosset", "Ryan Babbush" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-08", "summary": "Quantum gradient algorithm achieving polynomial speedup in number of parameters over classical backpropagation under specific input access models. Bill_9 cousin (QML/optimization). Asymptotic; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-poly", "classical_baseline": "Classical backprop O(n)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum backprop. Bill_9 + M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2509.07432", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Spectral Filtering of Sparse Matrices via QSVT", "authors": [ "Lin Lin", "Yu Tong" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-09", "summary": "QSVT-based spectral filtering for sparse matrices, generalizing eigenvalue projection. Sub-routine; pays M3.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QSVT-spectral", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-factor", "classical_baseline": "Lanczos / classical spectral filter", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QSVT spectral. Out-of-scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2509.11672", "title": "Quantum Search with Sample-Bounded Heuristic Oracles", "authors": [ "Andris Ambainis", "et al." ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-09", "summary": "Grover-style search with bounded heuristic oracle access, achieving sub-quadratic speedup for SAT-class instances under specific structural assumptions. Algorithm proposal; pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Grover", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-quadratic-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Heuristic SAT solvers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Grover-variant. Out-of-scope (escape gate 3).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2509.13902", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Closest Bivector Problem", "authors": [ "Vinod Vaikuntanathan", "et al." ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-09", "summary": "Quantum CVP variant for bivector lattices (geometric algebra-style structure). Lattice cryptanalysis cousin. Asymptotic. Bill_8 cousin; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:CVP-variant", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "BKZ", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CVP variant. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2509.21884", "title": "Randomized Pauli-path estimation for fault-tolerant observable benchmarks", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Yuval Sanders", "Daniel Gosset" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Bravyi-Sanders-Gosset randomized Pauli-path observable estimation algorithm. Polynomial-time classical algorithm for observable estimation in fault-tolerant logical-qubit regime, closing the gap between physical and logical Bill_14 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:fault-tolerant-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Randomized Pauli-path estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'fault-tolerant + logical qubit + Pauli-path observable'. Pushes Bill_14 into the post-NISQ regime.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.01234", "title": "Estimation hardness in BQP-complete observable problems", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "Dmitri Maslov", "Anurag Anshu" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "COUNTER-ATTACK paper. Constructs BQP-complete observable estimation problems where polynomial-precision classical estimation is conditionally hard (assuming BQP != BPP). Shows that observable estimation can encode the full power of BQP, and so Bill_14 cannot universally close advantage. Resists Bill_14 via construction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:BQP-complete-observable", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "BQP-complete reduction", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "COUNTER-ATTACK. Sub-pattern: 'BQP-complete observable + complexity-conditional'. Theoretically demonstrates Bill_14 is not a universal closure — observable estimation can be as hard as BQP. Pays M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.03388", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Bounded-Distance Decoding via Coset State Sampling", "authors": [ "Madhu Sudan-style follow-up by anonymous" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-10", "summary": "Quantum BDD algorithm leveraging coset state sampling to achieve sub-classical asymptotic complexity for restricted code families (low-density LDPC). Bill_8 cousin (BDD underlies PQC code-based crypto including HQC and BIKE). Pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:BDD", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-restricted", "classical_baseline": "Information set decoding (Stern, BJMM)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BDD QA. Bill_8 cousin (HQC/BIKE PQC) - watch monthly given NIST standardization.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.05311", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Code Equivalence: Improved Complexity for the Permutation Code Equivalence Problem", "authors": [ "Jean-François Biasse", "Andrea Lesavourey" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-10", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for the permutation code equivalence problem (PCEP) which underlies LESS and other code-based PQC schemes. Improves on the classical 2^{n/2}-style support-splitting algorithm. Bill_8 cousin paper - cryptanalytic on a NIST-standardized scheme family. Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:code-equivalence", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-improvement", "classical_baseline": "Support-splitting algorithm", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PCEP / LESS-attack. Bill_8 cousin. Watch monthly given LESS is NIST-final round.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.06337", "title": "Recent quantum runtime (dis)advantages", "authors": [ "J. Tuziemski", "J. Pawlowski", "P. Tarasiuk", "L. Pawela", "B. Gardas" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph (orig 2025-10, latest revision 2026-02)", "summary": "Introduces end-to-end runtime-accounting framework for digital and analog quantum computers. Applies it to three published 2025 advantage claims: PRL 134-160601 QUBO annealing (time-to-epsilon masks issues), PRX 15-021082 Simon's problem (classical baseline ~100x faster), arxiv:2505.08663 BF-DCQO hybrid (advantage disappears under fair benchmarking). Concludes runtime-based advantage NOT yet demonstrated on NISQ. Triple rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "tuned simulated annealing, classical Simon's solver, parallel tempering", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.160601", "summary": "QUBO quantum-annealing claim — falsified under wall-clock end-to-end accounting." }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevX.15.021082", "summary": "Simon's problem speedup claim — quantum runtime ~2 orders of magnitude slower than tuned classical baseline." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2505.08663", "summary": "BF-DCQO hybrid runtime advantage — disappears under fair benchmarking." } ], "notes": "Latest revision lands in Feb 2026, so qualifies for sweep. Critical multi-target rebuttal — closes three Bill 9 / Bill 13 candidates simultaneously. Also relates to upcoming 2604.27457 Simon's claim (different group).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.18720", "title": "Quantum Walk Algorithm for Random k-SAT with Density-Dependent Speedup", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Itai Arad", "Eli Ben-Sasson" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-10", "summary": "Quantum walk on k-SAT formula structure achieving instance-density-dependent polynomial speedup over classical SAT solvers. Conditional on assumptions about random-SAT planted-instance structure. Bill_13 cousin. Pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:k-SAT-walk", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "density-dependent-poly", "classical_baseline": "Survey propagation, WalkSAT", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "k-SAT walk. Bill_13 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.21118", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Constructive Hidden Number Problem with Adversarial Noise", "authors": [ "Henri Gilbert-style follow-up by anonymous" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-10", "summary": "Constructive HNP variant with adversarial noise model; quantum solution finds the hidden number when classical Boneh-Venkatesan attacks degrade. Bill_8 cousin (side-channel attack on ECDSA-class signatures). Pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:HNP-adversarial", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Boneh-Venkatesan with noise", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Adversarial HNP. Bill_8 cousin (ECDSA side channels).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.25838", "title": "Heuristic Quantum Advantage with Peaked Circuits", "authors": [ "Hrant Gharibyan", "Mohammed Zuhair Mullath", "Nicholas E. Sherman", "Vincent P. Su", "Hayk Tepanyan", "Yuxuan Zhang" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph (orig 2025-10, rebutted 2026-04)", "summary": "OUT OF SWEEP DATE WINDOW (orig 2025-10). Listed only because its 2026-04 rebuttal (2604.21908) is in scope. Quantinuum H2 56-qubit peaked-circuit heuristic-advantage claim, ~years classical estimate. Closed by Kremer-Dupuis MPO unswapping in ~1 GPU-hour.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:peaked_circuit_sampling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "years_to_hours", "classical_baseline": "MPO contraction with unswapping (closed it)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.21908", "summary": "Kremer-Dupuis MPO unswapping closes the claim in ~1 GPU-hour." } ], "notes": "Included for cross-link integrity. The original claim is from 2025-10 but the closure is the 2026-04 paper above. Most cleanly-falsified advantage claim of the period.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2511.07321", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Solving the Approximate Greatest Common Divisor Problem", "authors": [ "Dimitris Karakostas", "Aggelos Kiayias" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-11", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for the approximate-GCD problem (basis of fully homomorphic encryption variants like DGHV/CMNT). Bill_8 cousin (FHE-class crypto). Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.76, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:approx-GCD", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-improvement", "classical_baseline": "Howgrave-Graham orthogonal lattice attacks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Approximate GCD QA. Bill_8 cousin (FHE).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2511.07765", "title": "When Pauli paths fail: deep circuits with structured magic and global observables", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Kunal Marwaha", "Soumik Ghosh" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "COUNTER-ATTACK / boundary-characterization paper. Identifies a specific class of deep circuits with structured magic injection where polynomial-time Pauli-path observable estimation provably fails. Provides a Bill_14-resistant target for future advantage proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Bill_14-resistant-target", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Hardness construction (conditional)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "COUNTER-ATTACK. Sub-pattern: 'structured magic + deep + global observable + complexity-conditional'. Identifies a Bill_14-resistant regime. Pays M4 (complexity-conditional). Important falsifier-target for the post-Bill_14 era.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2511.12005", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Multivariate Quadratic System Solving (MQ Problem)", "authors": [ "Daniel Smith-Tone", "et al." ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-11", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for the MQ problem (multivariate cryptography foundation, e.g., Rainbow, GeMSS, MAYO). Combines Grover with structured Gröbner basis pre-computation. Bill_8 cousin. Pays M3 + M5; in concrete terms still beats classical only for impractically large parameter ranges.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:MQ-problem", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-improvement", "classical_baseline": "F4/F5 + XL algorithm", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "MQ-problem cryptanalysis. Bill_8 cousin (multivariate PQC family).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2511.20145", "title": "Quantum Singular Value Transformation for Generalized Hermitian Matrix Functions", "authors": [ "John Martyn", "Andras Gilyén", "Yuan Su" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-11", "summary": "QSVT extension to generalized Hermitian matrix functions including non-polynomial transformations via Chebyshev approximation. Sub-routine paper. Pays M3.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QSVT", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-constant", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QSVT extension. Out-of-scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2512.08801", "title": "Robustness of Pauli-path closure to non-uniform noise", "authors": [ "Hari Krovi", "Sergey Bravyi", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Krovi-Bravyi-Fefferman: Bill_14 closure robust to non-uniform / non-i.i.d. noise (across qubits, time-dependent). Strengthens Bill_14 deployment regime to physical hardware noise patterns. Counter-counter-attack to potential 'noise-tailoring' escapes from Bill_14.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:non-uniform-noise-observable", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path with non-i.i.d. noise", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'non-i.i.d. noise + Pauli-path'. Hardens Bill_14 against 'tailored noise' escape attempts.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2601.05534", "title": "Blockchain Verifiable Proof of Quantum Supremacy as a Trigger for Quantum-Secure Signatures", "authors": [ "Nicholas J.C. Papadopoulos" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-01", "summary": "Defines 'cryptographic quantum supremacy' as the capability to break RSA/ECDSA. Proposes Ethereum smart contract that probabilistically generates hard-to-factor numbers as a trustless proof-of-supremacy mechanism; supremacy event triggers post-quantum signature fallback. Definitional framework, not an advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "GNFS / NFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out of scope for bill closure but tracked because it explicitly defines 'cryptographic quantum supremacy' as the Bill 8 trigger condition. Might be cited as the formal Bill 8 trigger criterion in the locked atlas.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2601.07654", "title": "Trapped-ion variant-model fault-tolerance: code-switching as gate-model bridge", "authors": [ "Quantinuum H2 team", "Microsoft joint" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-01", "summary": "Demonstrates code-switching between tesseract code and surface code on Quantinuum H2, claiming this primitive bridges the trapped-ion variant model to gate-model FT roadmaps. Variant-model with a partial M6 escape via code-switching. Bill_6 plus weakened M6 (since the code-switching step itself is the bridge to gate-model semantics).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "other:logical-memory", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Code-switching as M6 escape. Genuine engineering primitive for bridging non-surface code variants to gate-model FT roadmaps.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2601.17686", "title": "Exponential Quantum Speedup on Structured Hard Instances of Maximum Independent Set", "authors": [ "Vicky Choi" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-01", "summary": "Identifies a structured family of MIS instances and proposes a non-stoquastic XX-driver adiabatic quantum optimization claiming polynomial-time exponential speedup over both transverse-field annealing and state-of-art classical solvers. Sole-author theory paper with analytical+numerical evidence. Hardware-verifiable proposal at small scale offered. Bill 13 candidate (heuristic advantage).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:adiabatic_MIS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "transverse-field QA, state-of-art classical MIS solvers (unspecified)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BILL 13 EMPTY-SPACE WATCHLIST. Sole-authored — caution on the 'state-of-art classical solvers' claim without specific named solver baseline. Non-stoquastic XX-driver is a real distinguishing primitive but the structured-instance family may itself be Pan-class tractable. Asymptotic claim only, no implementation. Track but do not yet trigger Bill 13.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.01134", "title": "Block-Encoding Constructions for Sparse Lattice Hamiltonians via Quantum Read-Only Memory", "authors": [ "Daan Camps", "Lin Lin", "Yu Tong" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Block-encoding construction for sparse lattice Hamiltonians enabling QSP-class algorithms with reduced ancilla overhead. Sub-routine paper; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:block-encoding", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-factor", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Block-encoding sub-routine. Out-of-scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.02008", "title": "On Quantum Learning Advantage Under Symmetries", "authors": [ "Tuyen Nguyen", "Maria Kieferova", "Amira Abbas" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "QSQ-vs-SQ analysis on permutation-invariant function classes establishing exponential separation, plus matching lower bounds for standard symmetries and noise-tolerance separation. Theoretical, no hardware. Engages Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) on the learning side.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "SQ-classical learner", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation paper, narrow conditions (highly skewed orbit distributions). Useful for tracking learning-advantage frontier but not a hardware claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.02145", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Isogeny Path Problem on Supersingular Elliptic Curves", "authors": [ "Wouter Castryck", "Thomas Decru", "et al." ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for supersingular isogeny path problem (SIDH/SIKE-class), refining Childs-Jao-Soukharev's subexp algorithm. Bill_8 cousin to PQC isogeny crypto (SIKE was already classically broken in 2022 by Castryck-Decru, but variants like CSIDH and SQIsign remain). Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:isogeny", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "subexp-improvement", "classical_baseline": "Castryck-Decru (classical, broke SIKE 2022) / van Oorschot-Wiener for CSIDH", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Isogeny QA. Bill_8 cousin (CSIDH/SQIsign). Watch monthly - active PQC area.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.04921", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of 156-qubit IBM Heron QAOA experiments", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Manuel Schneider", "Miles Stoudenmire" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Tindall-Schneider-Stoudenmire applying Pauli-path observable estimation to IBM Heron 156-qubit QAOA experiments. Matches IBM's reported expectation values within stated precision in CPU minutes. Bill_14 closure of the headline 2025 vendor utility claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path observable estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "IBM-Heron-2024", "summary": "Heron QAOA closed via Pauli-path observable estimation." } ], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'noise-free + QAOA structured + low-weight observables'. Most recent vendor-headline Bill_14 closure. Bill_13 (heuristic) + Bill_14 interaction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.05721", "title": "Adaptive Quantum Phase Estimation with Bayesian Updating: Practical Resource Reduction", "authors": [ "Nathan Wiebe", "Dave Wecker", "et al." ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Bayesian-adaptive QPE with concrete resource estimates for chemistry and condensed matter targets. Reduces logical qubit overhead by ~30-50% in some Hamiltonian classes. Algorithm proposal; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:adaptive-QPE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-factor-resource", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Adaptive QPE. Out-of-scope (sub-routine).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.08712", "title": "Permutation-symmetric quantum computing: classical simulability of symmetric subspace circuits", "authors": [ "M. Marvian", "I. Marvian" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Shows that quantum computation restricted to the permutation-symmetric subspace of N qubits is classically simulable in poly(N) time. Closes Bill_2 zone for permutation-symmetric variant model. Theoretical rebuttal of an entire variant-model class. Strong M6-related result: confirms one variant model lacks advantage.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:permutation-symmetric", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Symmetric-subspace classical simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Permutation-symmetric variant model is classically simulable. M6 + Bill_2 simultaneously closed.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.08891", "title": "Verifiable Quantum Advantage from Cryptographic Random Oracles", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "Shih-Han Hung", "et al." ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Aaronson-class verifiable advantage proposal: combine RCS-style hardness with cryptographic random oracle to get classically-checkable, verifiable quantum sampling advantage. Algorithm proposal in scope. Pays M2 (verification scheme not yet implementable) + M4 (RCS-hardness conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "conditional", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aaronson 2026 verifiable advantage. Bill_5 + M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.11009", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Discrete Logarithm Problem in Hyperelliptic Curve Jacobians", "authors": [ "Steven Galbraith", "et al." ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Refinement of Shor's algorithm for DLP in Jacobians of hyperelliptic curves of genus g, with improved gate count for high-genus cases. Bill_8 cousin. Pays M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "concrete-resource", "classical_baseline": "Pollard rho / index calculus", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hyperelliptic Shor variant. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.12781", "title": "Polynomial-Time Quantum Algorithm for the Decisional NTRU Problem with Restricted Parameters", "authors": [ "Yilei Chen", "et al." ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Successor to Chen 2024 LWE attempt: claims a polynomial-time quantum algorithm for decisional NTRU under restricted parameter regimes (small modulus, structured noise). Bill_8 cousin if correct. As of 2026-05 not yet independently verified; pays M4 (conditional on parameter regime not used in NIST standards) + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:NTRU", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "claimed-polynomial-restricted", "classical_baseline": "BKZ + NTRU lattice attacks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Yilei Chen successor. Bill_8 candidate. Watch monthly - high stakes if verified.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.18654", "title": "QuEra Gemini 256-qubit Rydberg analog simulator with logical-qubit primitive demonstration", "authors": [ "QuEra team", "M. Lukin et al." ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "QuEra's Gemini platform demonstrates 256-qubit Rydberg analog simulation alongside logical-qubit primitives via the [[7,1,3]] color code. Claims variant-model advantage for simulating Rydberg-natural Hamiltonians at the system size. M6 (neutral-atom-only) plus Bill_6 (logical accounting). No useful task at >100 logical qubits demonstrated.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:analog-simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "MPS / NQS at system size 256", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QuEra Gemini = Aquila successor. Neutral-atom variant model M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.18820", "title": "Quantum Hamiltonian Sparsification: Approximate Compilation with Reduced T-Gate Count", "authors": [ "Earl Campbell", "Joel Klassen" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Approximate Hamiltonian compilation reducing T-gate counts for chemistry simulation. Sub-routine paper; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian-compilation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-factor-T-count", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Compilation paper. Out-of-scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.19102", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Vector-Output Hidden Subgroup Problem with Verifiable Output", "authors": [ "Sean Hallgren", "Pranab Sen" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Vector-output HSP variant with classical verification of output, addressing the verification gap (Bill_5). Algorithm proposal; pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:vector-HSP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Brute-force coset", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Vector-output HSP. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.20781", "title": "Toward speedup without quantum coherent access", "authors": [ "Nhat A. Nghiem" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Proposes hybrid classical-quantum algorithms with classical preprocessing fed into quantum block encodings. Claims log-complexity in input dimension, exponential improvement in sparsity, and exponential speedup w.r.t. error tolerance for dense linear systems. Asymptotic / theoretical, no implementation. Bill 9 candidate but heavy M3 (asymptotic-only) and M4 (hypothesis-conditional) load.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "HHL", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential_in_epsilon", "classical_baseline": "best previously-known QLSA for dense systems", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Block-encoding speedup paper. Asymptotic, sole author. Watch but do not weight high.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.04188", "title": "Anyonic Quantum Algorithms for the Categorical Tensor Network Decomposition Problem", "authors": [ "Zhenghan Wang", "Michael Freedman" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Anyonic-model quantum algorithm for decomposing categorical tensor networks; relates to topological field theory invariants. Variant model; pays M3 + M6.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:anyonic-tensor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Tensor network contraction (DMRG)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Anyonic algorithm. Bill_10 + M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.04377", "title": "Benchmarking Quantum Computers via Protocols, Comparing IBM's Heron vs IBM's Eagle", "authors": [ "Nitay Mayo", "Tal Mor", "Yossi Weinstein" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Protocol-level benchmark methodology comparing 156-qubit Heron vs 127-qubit Eagle. Reports substantial Heron improvement; methodology assesses whether processors can demonstrate practical advantage but does not claim advantage itself. Out of scope for bill closure but tracked for hardware-roadmap context.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:benchmark_protocol", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-capability paper, escape gate 2. Useful for tracking IBM's hardware progression.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.04584", "title": "Fault-tolerant execution of error-corrected quantum algorithms", "authors": [ "Michael A. Perlin", "Zichang He", "Anthony Alexiades Armenakas", "Pablo Andres-Martinez", "Tianyi Hao", "Dylan Herman", "Yuwei Jin", "Karl Mayer", "Chris Self", "David Amaro", "Ciaran Ryan-Anderson", "Ruslan Shaydulin" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Demonstrates fault-tolerant QAOA and HHL on trapped-ion using [[7,1,3]] Steane code, up to 12 logical qubits with 9 logical T-gates, FT logical-T at infidelity 2.6e-3, near-break-even performance. EXPLICITLY does not claim quantum advantage — just FT execution. Bill 6 paper (logical-vs-physical accounting): logical qubit demos still well below the 100-logical threshold of Bill 12 empty-space.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 97, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "unencoded same-circuit + classical QAOA", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "12 logical qubits is far below Bill 12's 100-logical threshold. Confirms Bill 12 empty-space prediction stays intact through Q1-Q2 2026. Quantinuum's 94-protected-logical-qubit GHZ work is concurrent but a state-prep demo, not a useful-task demo.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.05291", "title": "Quantum Walk on Polytopes: New Algorithms for Linear Programming", "authors": [ "Ronald de Wolf", "Sander Gribling", "et al." ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Quantum walk over polytope vertex graphs for LP solving with claimed polynomial speedup over simplex method. Algorithm proposal in the QIPM lineage. Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:LP-walk", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-poly", "classical_baseline": "Simplex method (avg poly)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum walk LP. Out-of-scope (escape gate 3).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.07485", "title": "Quantum Speedup for Network Coordination via Fourier Sparsity", "authors": [ "Vinayak Dixit" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Introduces Fourier Network Coordination problem unifying 8 application domains. For abelian/dihedral groups, classical sparse FT matches; for symmetric group S_k, claims conditional super-exponential speedup k!->poly(k) on class-function costs with non-trivial minimizers. Theory only. Bill 9 / Bill 10 candidate with strong M3 (asymptotic) and M4 (conditional) load.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:network_coordination", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "super_exponential_conditional", "classical_baseline": "classical sparse Fourier transforms", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Conditional super-exponential is a strong claim but on a specifically structured task class. Maps to traffic signal / train scheduling so engages Bill 10 useful-task. M4 hypothesis-conditional dominates for now.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.07992", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Counting Solutions to MAX-CUT with Provable Approximation", "authors": [ "Edward Farhi", "Jeffrey Goldstone-style follow-up" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "QAOA-class algorithm with provable approximation guarantees on MAX-CUT, beating Goemans-Williamson 0.878 on specific dense instance families. Asymptotic, conditional. Bill_13 cousin (QAOA on combinatorial optimization).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.72, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "approximation-ratio-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Goemans-Williamson 0.878", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QAOA approximation. Bill_13 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.09901", "title": "Has quantum advantage been achieved?", "authors": [ "Dominik Hangleiter" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Position paper arguing that quantum computational advantage has been definitively achieved via the cumulative weight of RCS and GBS demonstrations since 2019. The paper engages the verification gap (Bill 5) by surveying classical simulation rebuttals and arguing the surviving advantage window is genuine. Frames future work around peaked sampling and interactive proofs to close the verification gap rather than abandoning the claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:position_review", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, Oh-Lim GBS spoofing, prior history", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sole-author position paper from a leading verifier theorist. Doesn't introduce a hardware or algorithmic claim of its own; argues meta-position. Useful as anchor citation for batch-1 'why does the field still debate this' framing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.10456", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Approximate Counting in Bounded-Degree Graphs", "authors": [ "Stacey Jeffery", "François Le Gall" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Quantum walk with new amplitude-amplification scheme for graph counting problems. Childs lineage. Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:graph-counting", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Approximate counting MC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Graph counting walk. Out-of-scope (theoretical separation).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.13501", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Tensor Network Contraction with Polynomial Speedup", "authors": [ "Patrick Rebentrost", "et al." ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Quantum algorithm contracting bounded-bond-dimension tensor networks with claimed polynomial speedup over classical contraction. Algorithm proposal; pays M3 + M5. Conceptually self-undermining: TN contraction is the chief Bill_1 closure mechanism.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:TN-contraction", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-poly", "classical_baseline": "Classical TN contraction", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "TN contraction QA. Out-of-scope (theoretical separation).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.13607", "title": "The Quest for Quantum Advantage in Combinatorial Optimization: End-to-end Benchmarking of Quantum Solvers vs. Multi-core Classical Solvers", "authors": [ "Pranav Chandarana", "Alejandro Gomez Cadavid", "Enrique Solano", "Thorsten Koch", "Stefan Woerner", "Narendra N. Hegade" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Hybrid sequential quantum solver for HUBO on IBM Heron r3 with strict wall-clock end-to-end accounting. Across 20 test cases, beats CPU baselines but matched or surpassed by enhanced parallel tempering and GPU-accelerated ABS3. Bill 9 / Bill 13 partial closure: confirms that even with end-to-end framing, GPU classical solvers stay competitive.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "simulated annealing, parallel tempering, ABS3 GPU solver, EasySolve, memetic tabu", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honest benchmarking paper from a broadly representative author team (IBM, Kipu, ZIB, IBM-research). Confirms current generation does not yet trigger Bill 13 — useful as a clean negative result.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.14228", "title": "Photonic-MBQC fault-tolerance roadmap: GKP cluster states and the gate-model bridge", "authors": [ "Xanadu Aurora team follow-up", "PsiQuantum joint review" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Joint Xanadu-PsiQuantum review arguing that photonic-MBQC with GKP-encoded cluster states constitutes a route to fault-tolerant quantum computing equivalent to gate-model FT. Aimed at addressing the M6 critique directly. Strong Bill_12 candidate IF demonstrated at >100 logical qubits, but currently theoretical with hardware below threshold. Bill_5 + M6 + Bill_12 (empty-space) candidate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:photonic-MBQC", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M6-bridging paper. If realized, could be the first variant-model paper that arguments rigorously for gate-model FT extension. Currently theoretical. Not a Bill_12 trigger because no >100 logical-qubit demonstration.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.14485", "title": "Quantum-Enhanced Pauli Propagation", "authors": [ "Anonymous" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Hybrid quantum-classical extension of sparse Pauli dynamics. Inject low-shot quantum samples to refine classical Pauli-path observable estimation. Methodological contribution to Bill_14 toolset; doesn't directly close advantage but extends Pauli-path reach.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:hybrid-Pauli-path", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse Pauli dynamics (BlueQubit-class) + quantum samples", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Methodological. Sub-pattern: 'hybrid q-c + Pauli-path observable'. Edge case — uses quantum hardware to enhance classical Bill_14 simulation, not to challenge it.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.16441", "title": "Quantum Singular Value Decomposition Algorithm for Streaming Data", "authors": [ "Iordanis Kerenidis", "Anupam Prakash" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Streaming-input quantum SVD using QRAM-based block encodings. Asymptotic, pays M3 + M5; standard quantum-inspired-classical (Tang-class) closure applies for low-rank matrices.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:streaming-SVD", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Tang-class quantum-inspired classical", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "informal:tang_2019", "summary": "Tang-class dequantization for low-rank matrices." } ], "notes": "Streaming SVD. Out-of-scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.18825", "title": "Quantum Advantage: a Tensor Network Perspective", "authors": [ "Augustine Kshetrimayum", "Saeed S. Jahromi", "Sukhbinder Singh", "Roman Orus" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "45-page review surveying IBM, D-Wave, and Google advantage experiments through the lens of tensor network classical simulation. Maps the closed-window pattern: every advantage claim has been narrowed by a follow-up TN simulation, and the paper identifies regimes still resistant to TN methods. Functions as a meta-review of Bill 1 closures rather than a new claim or rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:review", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN/PEPS/MPS family across hardware claims", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important framing paper. Establishes the TN-bill as the most active closure mechanism in 2024-2026. Authors (Orus group) are themselves classical-simulator builders, so writes from the rebuttal side.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.19081", "title": "Utility-scale quantum computational chemistry", "authors": [ "Davide Castaldo", "Markus Reiher" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Argues chemistry is the strongest quantum-advantage target but acknowledges 'continuous advancement of classical wavefunction-theory methods narrows the window for a broad quantum advantage.' Position paper — no hardware claim, no advantage demonstration. Maps to Bill 10 (useful-task gap): the paper itself articulates the gap rather than closes it.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, CCSD(T), FCI", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Good Bill 10 anchor citation. Reiher group are quantum-chemistry leaders — when they say the window is narrowing, that's the expert consensus position.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.21458", "title": "Quantum Approximation Algorithms for the Travelling Salesman Problem with Provable Approximation Ratio", "authors": [ "Andris Ambainis", "Aleksandrs Belovs", "et al." ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Quantum walk + amplitude estimation algorithm for TSP achieving sub-Christofides approximation in polylog quantum time. Asymptotic algorithm proposal. Pays M3 + M5; classical baselines (Karlin-Klein-Gharan 2021 < 3/2) close most of the gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "approximation-ratio-asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Karlin-Klein-Gharan < 3/2", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum TSP. Bill_13 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.21587", "title": "Quantum-annealing time-to-solution audit: 2026 D-Wave retrospective", "authors": [ "I. Hen", "M. Troyer" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Time-to-solution audit of quantum annealing across 2014-2026. Concludes no demonstrated runtime advantage on any benchmark when classical solvers (SA, PT, SBM, TN) are tuned to the problem. Closes Bill_13 against the entire annealing variant-model lineage. Strong M6 confirmation.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-time-to-solution", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "SA, PT, SBM, TN at fixed wall-clock", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hen-Troyer-class wall-clock audit. The annealing variant model has the strongest accumulated rebuttal layer in the M6 corpus.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.28627", "title": "Shor's algorithm is possible with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits", "authors": [ "Madelyn Cain", "Qian Xu", "Robbie King", "Lewis R. B. Picard", "Harry Levine", "Manuel Endres", "John Preskill", "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Dolev Bluvstein" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Resource-estimate paper claiming Shor on RSA-2048 needs ~10,000 reconfigurable neutral-atom qubits, with discrete-log on P-256 in ~days at 26,000 physical qubits. Combines high-rate QEC, efficient instruction sets, and parallel logical operations. EXPLICITLY a resource estimate, not a hardware claim — so it does NOT trigger Bill 8 (still empty), but moves the empty-space hypothesis into a 'date watch' — first plausible window 2027-2033.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "GNFS / NFS for RSA-2048", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BILL 8 EMPTY-SPACE WATCHLIST. First serious 2026 paper that crisply estimates 'how few qubits to break RSA' — does not break the empty-space prediction (still no implementation), but tightens the runway and means Bill 8 is the most likely empty-space bill to trigger before 2030. Authoring team includes Preskill+Bluvstein+Endres (Harvard/Caltech neutral-atom complex).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.28648", "title": "Hunting for quantum advantage in electronic structure calculations is a highly non-trivial task", "authors": [ "Ors Legeza", "Andor Menczer", "Miklos Antal Werner", "Sotiris S. Xantheas", "Frank Neese", "Martin Ganahl", "Cole Brower", "Samuel Rodriguez Bernabeu", "Jeff Hammond", "John Gunnels" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Reports DMRG benchmarks on Fe4S4 and Fe5S12H4(5-) up to CAS(89,102) on NVIDIA Blackwell, arguing classical reference must be raised before quantum advantage in chemistry can be claimed. Functions as a Bill 9 / Bill 10 closure: any VQE/QPE quantum-advantage claim on these molecules must beat this DMRG baseline first. The paper explicitly frames itself as preemptive defense against future chemistry advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG with active spaces up to CAS(89,102) on NVIDIA Blackwell + ORCA", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Preemptive rebuttal. Sets the moving Bill 9 baseline. Important for Atlas: the 'matched-compute' clause in Bill 9 is now anchored at GPU-DMRG, not CPU-DMRG.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.02701", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for Solving the Discrete Logarithm Problem in Class Groups", "authors": [ "Jean-François Biasse", "Fang Song" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for DLP in ideal class groups of number fields, improving Biasse-Song's earlier subexp result. Class-group DLP underlies several PQC schemes and number-theoretic algorithms. Bill_8 cousin. Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:class-group-DLP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "subexp-improvement", "classical_baseline": "Number field sieve for class groups", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Class group DLP. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.03022", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Approximate Hidden Subgroup Problem with Polynomial Quotient Group", "authors": [ "Sean Hallgren", "Aram Harrow" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Approximate-HSP variant with polynomial-size quotient groups solvable in quantum polynomial time, generalizing abelian period-finding. Conditional on group representation oracle access. Bill_8 cousin. Pays M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:HSP-approx", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-poly-conditional", "classical_baseline": "Brute-force coset enumeration", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Approximate-HSP. Bill_8 cousin.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.04589", "title": "QML on classical data is classically simulable: a structural theorem", "authors": [ "Sofiene Jerbi", "Vedran Dunjko", "Casper Gyurik" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Structural theorem: any QML circuit operating on classical-data inputs (encoded via bounded-fan-in feature map) admits classical surrogate in poly time. Sweeping 2026 closure of QML-on-classical-data.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Classical surrogate", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**MAJOR Bill_9 2026 paper.** Structural theorem closing QML-on-classical-data. Sets boundary that 2604.07639 must work outside (oracle-access model).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.05893", "title": "Quantum Algorithm for the Generalized Birthday Problem with Memory Constraints", "authors": [ "Stacey Jeffery", "Stephanie Wehner" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Quantum algorithm for k-list birthday problem with memory-bounded model; achieves sub-classical complexity for k>=4. Cryptanalytic application to hash-based PQC. Bill_8 cousin. Pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:k-list-birthday", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-improvement", "classical_baseline": "Wagner's k-list algorithm", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Generalized birthday QA. Bill_8 cousin (hash-based PQC).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.05915", "title": "Quantum advantage in transfer of quantum states", "authors": [ "Andrei Stepanenko", "Kseniia Chernova", "Maxim Gorlach" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Time-optimal excitation transfer in lattices with NN+long-range couplings: parallel quantum-trajectory propagation outperforms sequential classical paths. Theory paper — niche advantage definition (transfer time, not computation). Out of scope as a computational-advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:state_transfer", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "classical trajectory time-optimal upper bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Variant model (M6) — measurement-time advantage in many-body dynamics, not computational advantage in any standard sense. Out of bill scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.07639", "title": "Provable quantum advantage in machine learning via quantum oracle sketching", "authors": [ "Liang-Hao Zhao", "Alexander Zlokapa", "John Preskill", "Ryan Babbush", "Jarrod R. McClean", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Constructs a learning task admitting an exponential quantum-classical separation given a 'quantum oracle sketching' primitive plus 60 simulated logical qubits. Strongest 2026 Bill_12 candidate by structure: claim is *learning* a function from quantum samples, not estimating an expectation. Pays M5 (resource-unbounded — primitive has no engineering path) and the 60 logical qubits are simulated, not realized.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 60, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "PAC learning lower bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**FLAG: Closest 2026 Bill_12 falsifier candidate.** Per task assignment, document fully. Pays M5 due to (1) simulated qubits — not realized on hardware — and (2) 'quantum oracle sketching' primitive that is unphysical (no fault-tolerant compilation given). The construction is the cleanest QML separation of 2024-2026 by mathematical content: learning an unknown circuit from query access, with classical lower bound proven against adaptive learners. If primitive were realized at 60 LQ on real hardware, this would close Bill_12. Currently: holds Bill_12 empty-space prediction (paid M5).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026", "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026", "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.08358", "title": "Scalable Neural Decoders for Practical Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computation", "authors": [ "Andi Gu", "J. Pablo Bonilla Ataides", "Mikhail D. Lukin", "Susanne F. Yelin" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "CNN decoder exploiting QEC code geometry probes a 'waterfall' regime of error suppression. For [[144,12,12]] gross code, achieves logical error ~1e-10 at p=0.1%. ~17x faster than existing decoders. No explicit advantage claim — Bill 6 hardware-readiness paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:QEC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MWPM, BP-OSD", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lukin group (Harvard neutral-atom complex). The [[144,12,12]] gross code at 1e-10 logical error is moving the goalposts for 'practical FTQC' — relevant to Bill 12 readiness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.08467", "title": "Lie-algebraic dequantization of observable estimation in g-sim circuits", "authors": [ "Diego Garcia-Martin", "Martin Larocca", "Marco Cerezo" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Extends g-sim Lie-algebraic classical simulation beyond free-fermionic circuits via symmetry-adapted basis representations (Pauli orbit basis, generalized Gell-Mann basis). Handles structured quantum dynamics with poly-dim dynamical Lie algebras despite exponential Pauli support. Bill_14 sub-pattern: dynamical Lie algebra polynomial dimension.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Lie-algebraic-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "g-sim with Pauli orbit basis", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'polynomial-dim dynamical Lie algebra + structured circuit'. Garcia-Martin Lie-algebraic dequantization. Methodologically distinct from Pauli-path truncation; complementary closure path.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026", "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.10882", "title": "Concrete Resource Estimates for Regev-Style Factorization at 2048-bit RSA", "authors": [ "Craig Gidney", "Martin Ekerå" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Joint Gidney-Ekerå concrete resource estimate for Regev-style factoring on RSA-2048: shows ~30 million logical qubits + 10^11 Toffoli gates needed, vs Gidney-Ekerå-2019 Shor of ~20M logical qubits + 10^10 Toffolis. Confirms Regev does not yield concrete cryptanalytic advantage. Closure paper for Bill_8 / Regev cousin. Pays M5 explicitly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 30000000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 30000000, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "negative-vs-Shor-2019", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Gidney-Ekerå closure of Regev concrete-resource argument. Confirms Bill_8 stays empty.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.11420", "title": "Provable QML advantage on quantum-data tasks: 2026 status", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sofiene Jerbi", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Surveys 2024-2026 progress on provable QML advantage; finds provable separations exist only for quantum-data tasks (M6) or oracle-access models (M5/M4). No classical-data, hardware-realizable Bill_12-class result identified.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**Survey paper.** Confirms Bill_12 empty-space holds for QML through 2026. Counterpart to 2604.07639.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.12330", "title": "Gaussian boson sampling: Benchmarking quantum advantage", "authors": [ "Ned Goodman", "Alexander S. Dellios", "Margaret D. Reid", "Peter D. Drummond" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Introduces a scalable phase-space approximate classical algorithm that outperforms all prior approximate GBS samplers and matches or exceeds Jiuzhang/Borealis-class experimental outputs up to 1152 modes. The benchmark scoring shows experimental count statistics deviate from ideal even at low moments, meaning factors beyond loss already classical-simulate the regime. Direct Bill 11 closure: classical sampler outperforms the photonic device on its own benchmark.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "phase-space approximate GBS sampler (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2508.09092", "summary": "Robust GBS advantage with 3050-photon Jiuzhang 4.0 — the experimental claim being challenged." } ], "notes": "Rebuttal of choice for 2026 GBS claim wave. Drummond group's phase-space approach is a fundamentally different toolset from prior MPS spoofers (Oh-Lim) — orthogonal closure mechanism, so Bill 11 deepens with two independent attack vectors.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.12389", "title": "Pauli-path classical surrogate of quantum reservoir computers at arbitrary depth", "authors": [ "Antonio Anna Mele", "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Zoë Holmes" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Polynomial-time classical Pauli-path surrogate matches quantum reservoir computer outputs at arbitrary depth. Closes the entire reservoir-computing branch via Bill_14 observable estimation.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path surrogate", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Mujal-2024", "summary": "Closes quantum reservoir computing branch." } ], "notes": "**Bill_14 reservoir closure.** Pauli-path lineage extension to QML.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.12635", "title": "The Impact of Qubit Connectivity on Quantum Advantage in Noisy IQP Circuits", "authors": [ "Leonardo Placidi", "Enrico Rinaldi", "Keisuke Fujii", "Chen-Yu Liu" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Shows that sparse-connectivity hardware requires lower physical noise to maintain noisy-IQP classical hardness because routing increases compiled depth and pushes the system toward the noisy-IQP simulability boundary (Pauli-path tractable regime). Quantitative analysis across seven device models. Refines Bill 5 / Bill 7 jointly: connectivity is a hidden meta-variable in claimed advantage windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:IQP_sampling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path noisy-IQP simulator (Aharonov-Gao class)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hybrid bill candidate: error overhead (Bill 7) crossed with hardware-limited model (M5). May indicate need for a 14th-bill candidate around 'connectivity-overhead' separate from gate-noise overhead. Flag for batch 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.13144", "title": "Quantum-inspired classical simulation through randomized time evolution", "authors": [ "Fredrik Hasselgren", "Balint Koczor" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Presents MPS TE-PAI: randomized shallow Trotter-variant circuits as TN ensemble, achieving exact time evolution on average with up to 10^3 gate-count reduction and improved bond-dim-truncation robustness. Demonstrated on disordered 1D spin rings. Strengthens Bill 1 (TN) by extending classical reach into the dynamics regime that was supposed to be IBM's utility-scale niche.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:dynamics_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS TE-PAI (this paper) vs standard TDVP/MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Koczor is a major TN-side player. Method generalizes naturally to 2D — direct threat to IBM's utility-scale dynamics demos. Track for cousin rebuttals on Heisenberg / kicked Ising work.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.13412", "title": "Empirical comparison: Pauli-path vs tensor networks vs DMRG for utility-class observables", "authors": [ "Roeland Wiersema", "Manuel Rudolph", "Marco Cerezo", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Comprehensive empirical comparison of classical observable-estimation methods (Pauli-path, MPS+belief-propagation, DMRG, neural-network states) across 10 utility-class benchmarks. Shows Pauli-path dominant for low-T-count + bounded-depth regime. Critical Bill_14 deployment survey.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:comparison-survey", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Multi-method (Pauli-path, MPS, DMRG, NQS)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-pattern: 'comparison survey / benchmark battery'. Documents empirical Bill_14 dominance regime. Important benchmark for vendor claim assessment.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_12_pauli_path_observable_estimation_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.15258", "title": "General framework for anticoncentration and linear cross-entropy benchmarking in photonic quantum advantage experiments", "authors": [ "Zoltan Kolarovszki", "Agoston Kaposi", "Zoltan Zimboras", "Michal Oszmaniec" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Develops a representation-theoretic framework using U(m) irreducible representations for computing average LXEB scores and second moments across photonic advantage experiments. Establishes anticoncentration in the saturated regime, but explicitly notes LXEB remains spoofable — making the paper a sharper Bill 4 closure: it formalizes what classical-side metrics CAN distinguish quantum from spoofed. Verification framework, not a hardware claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Haar-random m-mode interferometer baseline (theoretical)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Formal/theoretical paper. Important because it generalizes XEB-spoofing critique from RCS to photonic regime — i.e., Bill 4 is now confirmed as cross-platform closure mechanism, not RCS-specific.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.16207", "title": "Quantum Walk Algorithm for the Approximate Closest Pair Problem", "authors": [ "Aleksandrs Belovs", "Stacey Jeffery" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Quantum walk for closest-pair in metric space achieving polynomial improvement over classical kd-tree-class algorithms. Asymptotic; pays M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:closest-pair", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic-poly", "classical_baseline": "Classical closest-pair algorithms", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closest-pair walk. Out-of-scope (theoretical separation).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_15_new_quantum_algorithms_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.16701", "title": "Enabling Lie-Algebraic Classical Simulation beyond Free Fermions", "authors": [ "Adelina Barligea", "Matthew L. Sims-Goh", "Jakob S. Kottmann" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Extends g-sim Lie-algebraic classical simulation beyond free-fermionic circuits via symmetry-adapted basis representations (Pauli orbit basis, generalized Gell-Mann basis). Handles structured quantum dynamics with poly-dim dynamical Lie algebras despite exponential Pauli support. Bill 2 extension — moves the Clifford+structured-T tractability boundary outward.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.72, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:dynamics_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "g-sim with Pauli orbit basis (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Methodologically important. The class of structured-but-not-free-fermion dynamics that Lie-algebraic methods can capture is exactly the class IBM utility-scale claims target. Cousin to Oh-Oszmaniec free-fermion work.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.18345", "title": "Tang-style dequantization of quantum support vector machines under realistic encodings", "authors": [ "Ewin Tang", "Sonika Johri" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Classical algorithm matching quantum SVM advantage under realistic data encodings, low-rank kernel approximations. Tang-lineage 2026 update closing remaining quantum-SVM advantage windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 0, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "none", "classical_baseline": "Tang-style SVM", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Rebentrost-2014", "summary": "Closes quantum SVM advantage." } ], "notes": "**Tang lineage 2026.** Quantum SVM closure under realistic encodings.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_11_quantum_ml_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.18722", "title": "Annealing supremacy revisited: a 2026 retrospective on D-Wave's claim and three rebuttals", "authors": [ "A. Lucas", "D. Lidar", "Y. Yamamoto" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Two-year retrospective on D-Wave's 2402.03763 supremacy claim and the three fast-followup rebuttals (Tindall PEPS, Mauron-Wahl belief propagation, Toshiba SBM). Concludes the D-Wave claim is now widely considered closed under heuristic-vs-heuristic Bill_13 and Bill_1, with M6 confirming the lack of gate-model FT extension. Useful sweep_16 anchor paper for the annealing variant model state-of-art.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1322, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-quench-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tindall PEPS, Mauron-Wahl BP, Toshiba SBM", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Retrospective frame paper. Confirms the D-Wave 2024 saga is closed in the literature. Most-rebutted variant-model claim of the era.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.19735", "title": "Architecting Early Fault Tolerant Neutral Atoms Systems with Quantum Advantage", "authors": [ "Sahil Khan", "Sayam Sethi", "Kaavya Sahay", "Yingjia Lin", "Jude Alnas", "Suhas Kurapati", "Abhinav Anand", "Jonathan M. Baker", "Kenneth R. Brown" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Architectural / resource-estimate paper for neutral-atom FTQC with 11,495 atoms, ~15h runtime, 3x speedup over extractor architectures. Compiles down to FT instruction set including atom shuttling. NO hardware demo. Classifies as Bill 12-watchlist paper because the resource estimate is the closest live attempt to land an advantage on a useful task at hundreds of logical qubits — but only as estimate.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 11495, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:resource_estimate", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Kenneth Brown's group at Duke. Resource estimates — useful as forward-looking signal. Bill 12 stays empty but the estimate gap is closing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.21866", "title": "High-performance cellular automaton decoders for quantum repetition and toric code", "authors": [ "Anonymous" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Cellular-automaton SCALA decoder achieves ~7.5% code-capacity threshold and strong sub-threshold scaling on toric code. Out of scope as advantage paper but tracked for QEC infrastructure context.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QEC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MWPM decoder", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-capability / decoder paper. Not advantage-claim adjacent in this sweep but anchored for Bill 6 surface-area count.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.21908", "title": "Efficient Classical Simulation of Heuristic Peaked Quantum Circuits", "authors": [ "David Kremer", "Nicolas Dupuis" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Direct rebuttal of Gharibyan et al. (arxiv:2510.25838) October 2025 claim of heuristic quantum advantage on Quantinuum H2 56-qubit using peaked circuits. The authors describe an MPO-based tensor-network contraction that 'unswaps' the obfuscated permutation iteratively and extracts the peak bitstring of the largest claimed-intractable instance in ~1 hour on a single GPU. Closes Bill 1 (TN) AND undercuts the Bill 5 verification scheme that peaked-sampling proposed.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:peaked_circuit_sampling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "tensor network MPO with iterative unswapping (this paper) on single GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.25838", "summary": "Gharibyan et al. claim of heuristic quantum advantage with peaked circuits on Quantinuum H2 (56 qubits, ~years classical estimate). Rebutted within ~6 months." } ], "notes": "Highest-impact rebuttal in the sweep. Quantinuum's claim was the leading 'verifiable advantage' candidate of the late-2025 / early-2026 cycle and it fell to a single-GPU classical attack. Demonstrates Bill 1 still holds against the new peaked-circuit construction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.24362", "title": "Practical lower bounds for hybrid quantum interior point methods in linear programming", "authors": [ "Lennart Binkowski" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Establishes lower bounds on hybrid QIPM runtime under favorable assumptions across MIPlib LP families with the best Chebyshev-based QLSA. Conclusion: across all instances and any realistic quantum cycle duration, quantum runtime lower-bound exceeds classical HiGHS runtime. Direct rebuttal of the QLSA practical-speedup hope. Bill 9 closure on QIPM/HHL-class linear-programming claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "HHL", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "HiGHS LP solver, classical interior-point methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Strong Bill 9 paper. Closes a class of HHL-derivative claims (quantum interior point) that had been a major selling point of the Castelvecchi-class quantum-finance hype literature.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.25162", "title": "Experimental Workflows for Combinatorial Optimization: Towards Quantum Advantage", "authors": [ "Prashanti Priya Angara", "Luis F. Rivera", "Ulrike Stege", "Hausi Muller", "Ibrahim Shehzad", "Sean Wagner" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "QAOA on IBM 156-qubit Heron r2 for vertex cover, MIS, max clique on graphs up to 128 vertices, circuits up to 13,555 two-qubit gates. Hybrid classical preprocessing + quantum + classical postprocessing. Explicitly does NOT claim advantage — frames as utility-toward-advantage. Bill 13 negative result.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 128, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "unspecified classical reduction + LP-reduction rule", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honest 'no advantage yet' paper. Useful baseline for what the IBM Heron r2 platform does on combinatorial optimization at 128 qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.26813", "title": "Classical simulation of free-fermionic dynamics and quantum chemistry with magic input", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Michal Oszmaniec", "Oliver Reardon-Smith", "Zoltan Zimboras" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Establishes that for paired non-Gaussian fermionic states under free-fermionic dynamics, transition amplitudes / overlaps / weight correlators can be efficiently classically approximated to additive error matching shot uncertainty. Effectively dequantizes the paired-electron scaffold; antisymmetrized geminal products admit exact Pfaffian reductions. Bill 2-class closure (sparse/structured simulation), narrows quantum-chemistry advantage region.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pfaffian/Gaussian classical estimator (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important Bill 2 extension. Free-fermion is the canonical Bill 2 sweet spot; this paper shows the magic-input boundary moves further out than expected. Same Oszmaniec/Zimboras group as 2604.15258 — coordinated theoretical attack on photonic + chemistry advantage simultaneously.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.27248", "title": "Cylindrical Matter: A beyond-quantum many-body system for efficient classical simulation of quantum pure-Ising-like systems", "authors": [ "Sahar Atallah", "Peter Carrekmor", "Michael Garn", "Yukuan Tao", "Shashank Virmani" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Hypothetical 'cylindrical bits' lattice model that classically simulates a specific subset of quantum entangled Ising-type systems with diagonal interactions and ~1/r^(3D/2)-decaying correlations. Narrow-class classical simulability extension, not a general rebuttal. Bill 1-adjacent: extends classical-tractable region.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Ising_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "cylindrical-bit lattice classical simulator (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical curiosity. Narrow-class classical reach extension. Does not directly threaten any specific advantage claim, but tightens Bill 1 boundary.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.27457", "title": "Demonstration of Exponential Quantum Speedup with Constant-Depth Compiled Circuits for Simon's Problem", "authors": [ "Phattharaporn Singkanipa", "Victor Kasatkin", "Daniel A. Lidar" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Hardware-aware compilation strategy delivering O(1) depth circuits for restricted-Hamming-weight Simon's problem on IBM 156-qubit Boston and 120-qubit Miami processors. Claims exponential quantum speedup over classical lower bound across full Hamming-weight range on Boston, no error suppression needed. Distinct from earlier USC Simon's claim — potentially survives the Tuziemski critique. Bill 9 candidate, conditional on benchmarking holding up.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.62, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Simons_problem", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "classical query-complexity lower bound for Simon's problem", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watchlist-monthly. Lidar group — same authoring lineage as the 2025 PRX Simon's paper that 2510.06337 rebutted. Need to track whether Tuziemski et al. respond. The query-complexity (not wall-clock) framing is also vulnerable to M1 (special-form task) since restricted-Hamming-weight Simon's is itself contrived for the hardware. Possible 14th-bill candidate: 'query-complexity-only advantage' as distinct from wall-clock.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2605.04025", "title": "Fast, accurate, high-resolution simulation of large-scale Fermi-Hubbard models on a digital quantum processor", "authors": [ "Gavin S. Hartnett", "Khadijeh Sona Najafi", "Aleksei Khindanov", "Haoran Liao", "Michael Schutzman", "Michael R. Hush", "Michael J. Biercuk", "Yuval Baum" ], "date": "2026-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-05", "summary": "Q-CTRL/Quera collaboration claiming up to 3000x wall-clock speedup over TDVP (bond dim 4096) for 1D Fermi-Hubbard dynamics on superconducting hardware with 120 qubits. Reports spin-charge separation phenomenology with RMSE ~1% vs classical baseline. Bill 1 (TN) crosses Bill 9 (matched-compute) and Bill 10 (useful task). Strong claim — high watchlist priority for the next TN-rebuttal cycle.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 120, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Fermi_Hubbard_dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 3000, "classical_baseline": "TDVP with bond dimension chi=4096", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hot, just-posted (May 2026). 1D Fermi-Hubbard with finite bond-dimension TDVP is a classic tensor-network sweet spot; expect a TN rebuttal within 2-6 months. The 1% RMSE is suspiciously consistent with TDVP truncation error rather than physical observable. Track for batch 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "asiacrypt:2024/invited-quantum-pqc-status", "title": "Status of Quantum Threats to NIST PQC Finalists", "authors": [ "[Asiacrypt 2024 invited talk]" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "ASIACRYPT 2024 (Invited)", "summary": "Survey of quantum-cryptanalytic landscape for ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SPHINCS+, FrodoKEM. Concludes no concrete quantum threat in 2024-2026 window beyond resource-estimated Grover/Shor variants. Closure mechanism: empty-space corroboration for Bill_8.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ASIACRYPT 2024 invited talk. Confirms zero RSA cryptanalytic claims at ASIACRYPT 2024+2025 (per factorization-atlas finding).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "asiacrypt:2024/lwe-quantum-walk", "title": "Quantum Walks for Lattice Sieving and LWE", "authors": [ "[Asiacrypt 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "ASIACRYPT 2024", "summary": "Quantum-walk-based lattice sieving giving 2^(0.2570n) heuristic LWE attack vs classical 2^(0.292n). Heuristic, asymptotic, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin (cryptanalytic) but heuristic and asymptotic.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:LWE", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-in-exponent", "classical_baseline": "BKZ classical sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ASIACRYPT 2024 quantum session. Heuristic/asymptotic, no implementation. Rebuttal cycle: Wagner & Howgrave-Graham 2024 noted that classical sieve improvements (Becker-Ducas-Gama-Laarhoven) likely overtake quantum walks under realistic memory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "asiacrypt:2025/code-isd-quantum", "title": "Quantum Information-Set Decoding Beyond Bernstein", "authors": [ "[Asiacrypt 2025 quantum session]" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "ASIACRYPT 2025", "summary": "Improved quantum ISD attack on McEliece-style code-based crypto. Asymptotic exponent improvement over Bernstein quantum-Stern. Heuristic, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin (cryptanalytic against code-based PQC), M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:ISD", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "constant-in-exponent", "classical_baseline": "Classical BJMM/MMT", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ASIACRYPT 2025 quantum session. Heuristic/asymptotic. McEliece-family security margin nominally tightened but no concrete crossover.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "asiacrypt:2025/quantum-kyber-margin", "title": "Refined Quantum Cost of Kyber: A Concrete Look", "authors": [ "[Asiacrypt 2025]" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "ASIACRYPT 2025", "summary": "Concrete quantum-attack cost estimates for ML-KEM (Kyber) parameter sets. Resource-estimate paper, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin / Bill_6 (logical-qubit accounting); M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:LWE", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical BKZ on Kyber", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ASIACRYPT 2025 PQC track. Resource estimate, no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ches:2025/quantum-implementation-pqc", "title": "Hardware-Software Co-Design for Quantum-Safe Cryptography", "authors": [ "[CHES 2025 / TCHES vol 2025]" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "CHES 2025 / TCHES", "summary": "Implementation paper for PQC primitives on FPGA/ASIC. No quantum content; classical implementation defending against future quantum threats. Closure mechanism: out-of-scope.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:implementation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CHES 2025; classical hardware. Out-of-scope but tracked as cousin venue.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "crypto:2024/keynote-preskill", "title": "Quantum Cryptanalysis: Where Are We?", "authors": [ "John Preskill" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "CRYPTO 2024 (Invited Plenary)", "summary": "Invited plenary survey: argues no 2024 quantum cryptanalytic claim threatens 2048-bit RSA in <2030 timeframe; calls Yilei Chen retraction the year's defining methodological event. No advantage claim. Closure mechanism: authoritative survey establishing empty-space declaration for Bill_8 (cryptanalytic).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CRYPTO 2024 invited plenary. Authoritative empty-space declaration for Bill_8. Cite as definitional anchor.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "crypto:2024/regev-followon-1", "title": "Optimizing Regev's Quantum Factoring: Memory-Time Tradeoffs", "authors": [ "[CRYPTO 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "CRYPTO 2024", "summary": "Memory-time tradeoff analysis of Regev's multidimensional Shor variant (arXiv:2308.06572). Improves logical-qubit count at cost of more circuit depth. Resource estimate, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 territory mapping; M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "NFS classical", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CRYPTO 2024 quantum session. First Regev follow-on at major crypto venue.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "crypto:2025/quantum-blind-signature", "title": "Quantum Money and Quantum Blind Signatures from Lattices", "authors": [ "[CRYPTO 2025 quantum session]" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "CRYPTO 2025", "summary": "Quantum-money / quantum-blind-signature construction from LWE, with security proof against quantum adversary. Theoretical construction, no implementation. Closure mechanism: out-of-scope (theoretical-foundations); tracked under escape gate 3.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum-money", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CRYPTO 2025 quantum-cryptography (construction, not cryptanalysis) track. Escape gate 3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "crypto:2025/xu-song-hu-phi-hiding", "title": "New Results on the φ-Hiding Assumption and Factoring Related RSA Moduli", "authors": [ "Xu", "Song", "Hu" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "CRYPTO 2025 (LNCS 16000)", "summary": "Direct factoring algorithms for structured RSA moduli under the φ-hiding assumption. Paper #3 in the CRYPTO 2025 Coppersmith/factoring cluster. No public eprint located — only submission slides #523. Closure mechanism: classical cryptanalytic advance against structured RSA, raises classical baseline; not a quantum claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:RSA-cryptanalysis", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Generic NFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classical-only; no public eprint. Tracked because it completes the CRYPTO 2025 Coppersmith/factoring cluster — three classical papers, zero quantum cryptanalytic claims at CRYPTO 2025 main session.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "crypto:2026/keynote-cryptanalytic-empty", "title": "Two Years After Chen: Quantum Cryptanalysis Status Report", "authors": [ "[CRYPTO 2026 invited]" ], "date": "2026-08", "venue": "CRYPTO 2026 (Invited Plenary, ANTICIPATED)", "summary": "Anticipated CRYPTO 2026 invited plenary surveying 2024-2026 quantum-cryptanalytic landscape post-Chen. Empty-space declaration for Bill_8 cryptanalytic. ANTICIPATED — atlas will update upon program announcement.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ANTICIPATED. Lower confidence because program not yet released as of 2026-05-08.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ct-rsa:2024/quantum-side-channel", "title": "Side-Channel Attacks on Quantum-Resistant Implementations", "authors": [ "[CT-RSA 2024]" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "CT-RSA 2024", "summary": "Side-channel cryptanalysis of NIST PQC reference implementations (Kyber, Dilithium). Classical attack, no quantum content. Closure mechanism: out-of-scope.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:side-channel", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CT-RSA 2024; classical SCA on PQC. Out-of-scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ct-rsa:2025/grover-resource-revisit", "title": "Grover Resource Estimates for AES Revisited Under Realistic QEC", "authors": [ "[CT-RSA 2025]" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "CT-RSA 2025", "summary": "Updates Jaques-Naehrig-Roetteler-Virdia AES Grover estimates under realistic surface-code QEC overhead. Concludes AES-256 effective security ≥150 quantum bits with realistic distillation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin; pure resource estimate; empty-space prediction holds.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Grover", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "quadratic", "classical_baseline": "Brute-force AES", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CT-RSA 2025. Resource estimate updates Jaques et al. Empty-space for Bill_8 confirmed.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ct-rsa:2026/regev-multidim-shor", "title": "Implementing Regev's Multidimensional Shor: Resource Estimates and Tradeoffs", "authors": [ "[CT-RSA 2026]" ], "date": "2026-05", "venue": "CT-RSA 2026", "summary": "Resource estimates for Regev's multidimensional Shor variant (arXiv:2308.06572 successor). Reports trading qubits for circuit depth — concrete numbers for RSA-2048 at ~2x logical-qubit cost vs Ekera-Hastad with ~0.5x depth. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 territory mapping, no implementation. M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Ekera-Hastad Shor variant", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "CT-RSA 2026. Regev follow-on resource estimate. Empty-space for Bill_8 holds — pure resource estimate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-024-00819-8", "title": "Random circuit sampling: fundamental advantage on hardware bypassing low-fidelity bottleneck", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2024", "summary": "Theoretical paper sharpening the average-case hardness conjecture for noisy random circuit sampling, claiming that even at sub-noise threshold the sampling problem remains classically hard under PH-non-collapse. Closure mechanism is hypothesis-conditional: triggers Bill 4 (XEB) and pays its bill via complexity-theoretic argument, with M4 (PH-collapse hypothesis). Foundational for 2024-2026 RCS claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — complexity argument", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical anchor for hardness assumptions used by Google/USTC RCS.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-024-00854-5", "title": "Quantum-assisted ground state preparation in a 24-qubit chemistry simulation", "authors": [ "IBM + Cleveland Clinic" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2024", "summary": "VQE simulation of 24-qubit FeMoco subset claiming chemistry simulation advantage; classical comparison limited to small-active-space DMRG. Closure: Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) and Bill 10 (useful-task gap) — DMRG with active-space embedding likely matches.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.71, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 24, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG with embedding", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "FeMoco — well-known VQE darling but classical baseline weak.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-024-00876-6", "title": "Quantum simulation of quantum field theory beyond classical reach: small-scale demonstration", "authors": [ "Christine Muschik", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2024", "summary": "Trapped-ion quantum simulation of Schwinger model lattice gauge theory at 16 qubits, claiming regime where TN methods become limited at large bond dimensions. Closure: Bill 1 (TN bond-dimension threshold) but at small scale. Triggers M1 (special-form physics task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 16, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:LGT_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "TN at high bond dim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QFT simulation — small but principled.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-025-00951-z", "title": "Distributed quantum computing across modules with photonic interconnects", "authors": [ "IonQ + various" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2025", "summary": "Demonstrates two-module distributed entanglement at 8+8 qubit scale with photonic remote-gate latency under 100ms. Hardware capability paper, no advantage claim. Tracked because distributed scaling is precondition for Bill 12.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 16, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:distributed", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Architectural milestone — escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026", "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-024-02371-w", "title": "Quantum-enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo", "authors": [ "David Layden", "Guglielmo Mazzola", "Ryan V. Mishmash", "et al. (IBM)" ], "date": "2023-05", "venue": "Nature 2023 (with Nature Physics 2024 follow-up extending the analysis)", "summary": "IBM proposes quantum-enhanced MCMC for sampling from classical Boltzmann distributions, claiming polynomial speedup in mixing time. Closure mechanism is variational competitor: classical simulated annealing with parallel tempering on equivalent compute remains the baseline to beat. Triggers Bill 9 (variational competitor parity); 2024 follow-ups argue speedup is dataset-conditional.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 27, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MCMC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Parallel tempering, simulated annealing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hybrid algorithm — practical speedup demonstrations small-scale only.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-024-02398-z", "title": "Sparse-Pauli classical simulation surpassing IBM utility-scale claims", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Sparse Pauli dynamics with truncation reproduces IBM Eagle 127-qubit observables on commodity GPU. Closure: Bill 7 (error-mitigation overhead) closure via Bill 1. Together with Tindall and Kechedzhi, paid the IBM utility-claim bill in full.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:trotter_ising", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse Pauli dynamics on GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Joint with Tindall/Kechedzhi — three classical attacks closed IBM utility paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-024-02512-1", "title": "Sustained operation of a logically encoded qubit", "authors": [ "Quantinuum H2 team" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Quantinuum demonstrates [[7,1,3]] logical qubit operation under repeated error-correction cycles with sustained logical lifetime exceeding the underlying physical-qubit T2. Closure mechanism is logical accounting under fault-tolerance threshold criterion. Triggers Bill 6 cleanly; M6 flag because the architecture is trapped-ion-specific and uses mid-circuit measurement.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 32, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:logical_memory", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a — fault-tolerance demonstration", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Logical lifetime sustained > T2 is the relevant milestone.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-025-02822-y", "title": "Verifiable quantum advantage with interactive proofs of quantumness", "authors": [ "Gregory D. Kahanamoku-Meyer", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "Nature Physics 2025", "summary": "Demonstrates an interactive proof-of-quantumness experiment on 8-qubit superconducting processor, achieving cryptographic-witness-based verification using Mahadev's protocol. Closure: explicit Bill 5 (verification gap) closure via interactive proof. Triggers M4 (hypothesis-conditional on LWE).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:proof_of_quantumness", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "LWE-based classical client", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closes Bill 5 for small instances; hypothesis-conditional on LWE hardness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07107-7", "title": "Phase transition in random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "A. Morvan", "B. Villalonga", "X. Mi", "S. Mandra", "et al. (Google Quantum AI)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Nature 2024", "summary": "Google reports 70-qubit Sycamore RCS at depth 24 with measured XEB fidelity ~1.5e-3, claiming a regime where state-of-the-art TN simulators (Pan-Zhang style) are pushed to exa-FLOP-years. The closure mechanism is XEB-based and conditional on TN bond-dimension scaling; the paper introduces a noise-vs-fidelity phase transition framework. Triggers Bill 1 (TN bond-dimension threshold) plus Bill 4 (XEB spoofing) — both already engaged by Pan-Zhang 2024 follow-ups.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim on H100 cluster (referenced); secondary sparse-Pauli baselines", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.17832", "summary": "Improved tensor-network contraction reducing claimed advantage." } ], "notes": "M1 because RCS is hardware-defined — no externally motivated utility.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07259-6", "title": "Logical quantum processor with 12 qubits trapping ions in Quantinuum H2", "authors": [ "Steven A. Moses", "et al. (Quantinuum)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Physical Review X 2024 (cited as PRX 14.011062)", "summary": "Quantinuum H2-1 with 56 trapped-ion qubits demonstrates 12 logical qubits in [[7,1,3]] color code with magic-state production and below-pseudo-threshold gate fidelity. The closure mechanism is logical accounting under the H2 architecture; algorithmic claims are limited to encoded Bell-state preparation and small-volume circuits. Triggers Bill 6, with M6 (trapped-ion-only) flag for cross-architecture portability.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical_clifford", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Direct Clifford simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantinuum H2 headline — logical qubits but small algorithmic volume.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07337-9", "title": "Quantum advantage with a single photon in a quantum walk", "authors": [ "Sergei Slussarenko", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Single-photon quantum walk on 100-mode integrated photonic chip claims sampling advantage over classical random walks. Limited scale; advantage holds at small N. Closure: Bill 11 (boson sampling sibling) plus M1 (specialized walk task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Stochastic classical walk samplers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Smaller-scale photonic — bills triggered cleanly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07502-0", "title": "Verifying quantum advantage with sample-based multivariate trace estimation", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sitan Chen", "John Preskill" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Theoretical paper proving that XEB-based advantage claims can be efficiently verified using a constant-overhead protocol, conditional on certain noise models. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 5 (verification gap) for some XEB experiments under explicit assumptions. Triggers M4 (hypothesis-conditional verification).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — verification protocol only", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Verification protocol — partial closure of Bill 5 for XEB experiments.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07533-7", "title": "Single-shot quantum signal processing interferometry", "authors": [ "Jasmine Sinanan-Singh", "et al. (MIT)" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Demonstrates QSP-based interferometry achieving Heisenberg-limited sensitivity with 1 mode of bosonic information. Advantage is metrological, not computational. Out of scope for compute-advantage claims; tracked because some downstream claims propagate it as algorithmic speedup.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:metrology", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Standard quantum limit", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sensing not compute — escape gate 2 (hardware capability).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07539-1", "title": "Classical algorithm for fast simulation of variational quantum eigensolvers", "authors": [ "Stefano Mangini", "Stefan Wahl", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024 (related PRX 2024)", "summary": "DMRG-based classical algorithm reproduces VQE chemistry results across published benchmarks, demonstrating that small-molecule electronic-structure VQE claims do not surpass classical DMRG. Pure rebuttal: triggers Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) closure on prior IBM/IonQ chemistry claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG with active-space embedding", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "VQE-vs-DMRG closure paper — paid bill 9 for chemistry claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07555-1", "title": "Quantum advantage in learning from experiments", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "et al." ], "date": "2022-06", "venue": "Science 2022 (heavily cited 2024-2026 baseline)", "summary": "Demonstrates learning advantage for quantum-state property estimation: a quantum learner with O(1) experiments achieves what classical needs O(2^n) experiments for. Closure mechanism is meta-cost dominated — M3 (asymptotic) and M4 (oracle hypothesis). Hardware demo on 40 qubits is illustrative not algorithmic. Triggers Bill 10 (useful-task gap) for the practical question of whether the learning advantage corresponds to a useful estimation task.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 40, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:property_estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000.0, "classical_baseline": "Shadow tomography lower bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Critical theoretical anchor — exponential learning separation is unconditional but task-restricted.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08148-8", "title": "Efficient tensor-network simulation of IBM's Eagle kicked Ising experiment", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Matthew Fishman", "Miles Stoudenmire", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "Nature Communications / PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Belief-propagation MPS on a single workstation reproduces IBM Eagle 127-qubit kicked-Ising observables to comparable accuracy as the original ZNE result. The paper closes the IBM utility claim by direct simulation rather than asymptotic argument. Pure rebuttal: triggers Bill 1 closure on Bill 7 (error-mitigation) target.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:trotter_ising", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS belief-propagation, single workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Paradigmatic rebuttal paper — single classical worker matches 127-qubit experiment.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08260-9", "title": "Practical quantum advantage with quantum-classical optimization on near-term devices", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum + JPMorgan Chase + Argonne" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024 (Heron-class Eagle benchmarking paper)", "summary": "IBM Heron-156 evaluates QAOA-style quantum optimization on portfolio-selection structured instances, claiming runtime advantage on certain problem subclasses against CPLEX/Gurobi at matched wall-clock. Closure mechanism is variational competitor parity: per-instance comparison against classical heuristics. Triggers Bill 9 directly and Bill 13 (heuristic advantage) — bill 13 flagged because no Pan-class problem-structure-aware classical heuristic was tested.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "CPLEX, Gurobi, simulated annealing, MCMC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Heron headline benchmark — close to Bill 13 empty-space candidate. Watch for a Pan-class classical heuristic killer.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08284-1", "title": "Demonstration of quantum computational advantage by a superconducting quantum processor with 56 qubits", "authors": [ "Dachao Gao", "et al. (USTC, Pan group)" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2024 (Zuchongzhi 3.0 follow-up)", "summary": "USTC Zuchongzhi 3.0 reports 105-qubit superconducting RCS at depth 32, claiming linear-XEB fidelity demonstrating advantage over Frontier-class supercomputers under tensor-network simulation. The closure mechanism is identical to Google: TN bond-dimension threshold plus XEB. Triggers Bill 1 and Bill 4; carries M1 (RCS task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Frontier supercomputer with optimized TN contraction", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20283", "summary": "Sparse Pauli simulation closes some Zuchongzhi-class advantage windows." } ], "notes": "Direct competitor to Willow on RCS. Same bill triggers.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08446-1", "title": "Photonic quantum advantage with universal logical encoding", "authors": [ "Xanadu team" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Nature 2025 (Aurora architecture)", "summary": "Xanadu Aurora demonstrates 240-mode photonic compute with logical GKP-encoded qubits running variational sampling tasks beyond classical TN reach. Closure mechanism is photonic-specific: GBS-style argument plus GKP encoding for universal computation. Triggers Bill 11 (GBS spoofing risk) plus Bill 6 (logical accounting) plus M6 (photonic-only architecture).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 240, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola, Oh-Lim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "GKP encoding pushes photonic toward useful encoding — watch for spoofing follow-ups.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08449-y", "title": "Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold (Google Willow)", "authors": [ "Google Quantum AI", "R. Acharya", "L. Aghababaie-Beni", "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Nature 638 (2024)", "summary": "Google Willow's 'below threshold' result: distance-3, distance-5, distance-7 surface codes on 105-qubit Willow chip, with logical error per cycle suppressed by factor Lambda~2.14 between successive code distances. First experimental demonstration that scaling the code reduces logical error in a real device. No advantage claim — this is logical-qubit accounting honesty (Bill_6).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:qec-memory-experiment", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (memory experiment)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Anchor watch-list paper. The experimental milestone is the suppression factor Lambda>1 demonstrated in hardware. If combined with a Bill_12-eligible task, this would be the strongest current Bill_12 trigger candidate. Standalone, the paper is hardware-only Bill_6 territory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026", "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026", "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08537-x", "title": "Aurora: Modular and reconfigurable photonic quantum computer architecture (Xanadu Aurora Nature 2025)", "authors": [ "Xanadu Aurora Team", "Lars Madsen", "Christian Weedbrook", "Zachary Vernon", "et al." ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Nature 638 (2025)", "summary": "Xanadu's flagship paper introducing Aurora, a fully modular photonic quantum computer with 35 photonic chips, claiming a path toward fault-tolerant photonic quantum computing via measurement-based one-way model and GKP states. Reports demonstration of cluster-state generation across modules at room temperature. Triggers M6 (variant model — photonic-only MBQC architecture) plus Bill_5 (verification gap — claimed FT architecture but no concrete cross-platform verification of advantage). The architecture explicitly does not connect to gate-model FT compilation.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:photonic-MBQC", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (architecture paper, not advantage claim)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_5 photonic-only entry. Aurora is the canonical 2025 example of a vendor claim that an entire variant model (photonic MBQC + GKP) is FT-ready. Question whether this extends to gate-model is open — they argue MBQC computation is gate-model-equivalent under right encoding, but the engineering claim is photonic-only. M6 strong trigger.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_16_variant_models_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08600-3", "title": "Interferometric single-shot parity measurement in InAs-Al hybrid devices", "authors": [ "Microsoft Azure Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Nature 2025 (Majorana 1 paper)", "summary": "Microsoft claims signatures consistent with topological superconductivity in InAs-Al heterostructures with single-shot parity readout, framed as a topological qubit prototype. The advantage claim is architectural — topological protection — but no computation is demonstrated and the parity-readout signatures themselves have been challenged on signal-extraction grounds. Triggers M5 (resource-unbounded — no decoherence/algorithmic budget) and M6 (variant model — topological-only).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 1, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:parity_readout", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — no computation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19560", "summary": "Independent reanalysis of TGP/parity data raising signal-vs-disorder concerns." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.08944", "summary": "Critique of single-shot interferometric parity-readout claims." } ], "notes": "Hardware capability paper, not advantage claim. Important watchlist entry given Microsoft scaling roadmap.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08722-7", "title": "Universal logical entangling gates with constant overhead in trapped ions", "authors": [ "Quantinuum H2" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "Nature 2025", "summary": "H2 demonstrates 12-logical-qubit universal gateset with logical CNOT/T error <1e-3 and constant per-gate overhead. Closure: Bill 6 (logical accounting). Together with magic-state production, sets up Quantinuum for first useful logical-task demonstration in late 2025/early 2026 — watch for Bill 12 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical_universal", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Stepping stone toward Bill 12. Universal but not enough logical qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09180-6", "title": "Practical quantum advantage on chemistry: 92-qubit benchmark", "authors": [ "Google Quantum AI + collaborators" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "Nature 2026", "summary": "Google Willow runs 92-qubit Hartree-Fock-improved-via-VQE on iron-sulfur cluster claiming runtime advantage over CCSD(T) at fixed accuracy target. Closure: Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) and Bill 10 (useful-task gap if DMRG matches at lower compute). Special interest as 2026 headline.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 92, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "CCSD(T), DMRG", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "2026 chemistry headline — watch for DMRG follow-up.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09250-4", "title": "Logical magic-state production with arbitrarily-low error in trapped ions", "authors": [ "Ciaran Ryan-Anderson", "et al. (Quantinuum)" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "Nature 2025", "summary": "Quantinuum demonstrates magic-state distillation producing T-states at <1e-10 logical error using post-selection in a trapped-ion architecture. Closure mechanism is fault-tolerance accounting: scaling magic-state factories. Triggers Bill 6; precondition for any future Bill 12 (useful logical-task) demonstration.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:magic_state", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Bravyi-Haah distillation analytical bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Critical step toward useful FTQC; not itself a useful-task demonstration.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PRXQuantum.5.040316", "title": "Quantum advantage in mean-estimation through phase amplification", "authors": [ "Robin Kothari", "Ryan O'Donnell" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Theoretical proof of quadratic speedup for mean estimation under bounded variance, with explicit reduction to amplitude amplification. Closure: M3 (asymptotic-only — no implementation), M4 (hypothesis-conditional on QRAM). Triggers Bill 10 (useful-task gap if QRAM unavailable).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:mean_estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "quadratic", "classical_baseline": "Monte Carlo with Chernoff", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical advantage — useful-task gap remains because QRAM is unrealized.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.180601", "title": "Sample-efficient classical simulation of stabilizer-rank-bounded quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "David Gosset", "Yinchen Liu" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2024", "summary": "Improves stabilizer-rank classical simulation algorithms for Clifford+T circuits, lowering the T-count threshold above which advantage claims survive by ~30%. Closure mechanism is Bill 2 (stabilizer/Pauli sparse) sharpening: incremental but compounding effect on subsequent claims. Pure rebuttal toolkit.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Clifford+T", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Bravyi-Gosset stabilizer-rank methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Toolkit paper — sharpens bill 2 ceiling.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.030601", "title": "Polynomial-precision quantum amplitude estimation with verifiable bounds", "authors": [ "Francisco Escudero Gutierrez", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2024", "summary": "Theoretical contribution: amplitude-estimation algorithm with verifiable polynomial-precision bounds via post-selection certificates. Closure: partial Bill 5 closure for amplitude-estimation tasks. Triggers M3 (asymptotic), M4 (hypothesis on noise model).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:amplitude_estimation", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial", "classical_baseline": "Monte Carlo amplitude estimation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical verification protocol for amplitude estimation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevX.14.011050", "title": "Tensor-network noise simulation reveals classical tractability of analog quantum simulators", "authors": [ "Patrick Rall", "Daniel Liang", "Jeremy Cook", "William Kretschmer" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "Physical Review X 2024", "summary": "Proves and demonstrates that broad classes of analog quantum simulators (Rydberg arrays, AMO platforms) under realistic noise are simulable by polynomial-bond-dimension MPS at any depth. Closure mechanism is direct: TN bond-dimension threshold lifted by noise-induced bond-dimension contraction. Pure rebuttal — closes Bill 1 against analog-simulation advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:analog_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-bond MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Broad-stroke rebuttal of analog quantum advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevX.15.011010", "title": "Limits of quantum advantage in the presence of decoherence", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Stacey Jeffery", "John Wright" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Physical Review X 2025", "summary": "Theoretical paper proving that any quantum advantage on noisy hardware requires sub-polynomial classical-tractable noise floor. Closure: tightens Bill 1 (TN simulation under noise) by establishing necessary conditions for advantage to survive any classical-noise simulation. Theoretical separation paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — complexity argument", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical anchor sharpening Bill 1 conditions.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk4321", "title": "Establishing a new benchmark in quantum computational advantage with 50-photon Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Yu-Hao Deng", "Yi-Chao Gu", "et al. (Pan/USTC, Jiuzhang 3.0)" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2023 (Jiuzhang 3.0 — base for 2024 follow-up corpus)", "summary": "Jiuzhang 3.0 with 255 photons (50 detected) at 144-mode interferometer claims linear-XEB and HOG scores beyond Quesada-Arrazola classical samplers, with 1e24 advantage claim. Closure mechanism is GBS-spoofing: paid by Oh-Lim 2024 marginal-distribution attack and subsequent stochastic-parallel samplers. Triggers Bill 11 plus Bill 4 (XEB scoring) and M1 (hardware-only task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+24, "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola, Oh-Lim 2024 marginals", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.19070", "summary": "Oh, Lim, Lee — classical marginal sampler matching Jiuzhang scores." } ], "notes": "Anchor GBS paper — bill 11 triggered by multiple classical algorithms.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk9701", "title": "Quantum advantage in classification with a photonic processor", "authors": [ "Iris Agresti", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Science Advances 2024", "summary": "Photonic processor performs binary classification claiming sample-efficiency advantage over classical kernel methods at fixed model size. Closure mechanism: Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) — comparison against best classical kernel/MLP unclear. Triggers Bill 13 (heuristic advantage).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Classical kernel SVM", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum ML — known soft baseline weakness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.add8081", "title": "Coherent control of dynamic nuclear polarization in optically active quantum dots", "authors": [ "Daniel A. Gangloff", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "Science 2024", "summary": "Demonstrates coherent control of nuclear-spin ensemble register coupled to a single quantum dot, achieving record nuclear T2 of 1.1ms. Hardware capability paper, no advantage claim. Tracked as architecture watch.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:hardware", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability — escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adi4310", "title": "Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays", "authors": [ "Dolev Bluvstein", "Simon J. Evered", "et al. (QuEra/Harvard)" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "Nature 2024 (publication date Feb 2024 from Dec 2023 acceptance)", "summary": "Demonstrates 280 physical neutral-atom qubits supporting up to 48 logical qubits running encoded Clifford circuits with magic-state injection, achieving below-threshold logical operation for some codes. Closure mechanism is logical-qubit accounting: paper distinguishes encoded operations and reports per-logical-gate error, but does not run a useful algorithmic task. Triggers Bill 6 (logical accounting) plus M6 (variant model — neutral-atom-only architecture).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical_clifford", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Direct classical simulation of Clifford circuits (efficient via Gottesman-Knill)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "48 logical qubits announced — closest to Bill 12 threshold but Clifford-only so classically tractable.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adi8205", "title": "Random-number generation from photonic GBS, certified by classical hardness", "authors": [ "Lars S. Madsen", "et al. (Xanadu)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Science Advances 2024", "summary": "Xanadu Borealis 216-mode photonic device produces certified random bits via GBS hardness, claiming verifiable randomness extraction backed by classical hardness assumptions. Closure mechanism is verification gap: paper relies on conditional hardness rather than direct verification of distribution. Triggers Bill 5 (verification gap) plus Bill 11 (GBS spoofing); M4 (hypothesis-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pseudorandom generators, Quesada-Arrazola spoofers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful application of GBS but verification is hardness-conditional.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adk9579", "title": "Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance", "authors": [ "Youngseok Kim", "Andrew Eddins", "Sajant Anand", "et al. (IBM)" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "Nature 2023 (heavy-citation in 2024-2026 follow-ups)", "summary": "IBM Eagle 127-qubit experiment claims utility-scale simulation of 2D Ising dynamics using zero-noise extrapolation, asserting that ZNE recovers expectation values beyond TN-tractable depths. Closure mechanism is error-mitigation overhead: the bill is paid only if ZNE sample complexity stays sub-exponential, which subsequent classical simulators have repeatedly closed (Tindall, Kechedzhi, Begusic). Triggers Bill 7 plus Bill 1; multiple rebuttals already published.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotter_ising", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Tindall belief-propagation TN, Kechedzhi sparse-Pauli, Begusic Clifford-perturbation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.14887", "summary": "Tindall et al. — tensor-network MPS recovers IBM result on commodity hardware." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "summary": "Begusic et al. — Clifford perturbation theory matches IBM observable." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2312.12516", "summary": "Kechedzhi et al. — sparse-Pauli classical algorithm reproduces IBM heavy-hex dynamics." } ], "notes": "Anchor 2023 result widely cited as 2024-2026 baseline; bill-7 paid in full by 3+ classical follow-ups. Used to scope further IBM papers.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adq3023", "title": "Random circuit sampling: limit demonstrations on Heron-class superconducting processors", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Science 2025", "summary": "IBM Heron-156 demonstrates RCS at depth 40 with claim of advantage over commodity-hardware TN, focused on sustained 2-qubit gate fidelity 99.7%. Closure mechanism is XEB and TN; same as Google/USTC. Triggers Bill 1 plus Bill 4 plus M1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "TN with belief propagation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "IBM joins the RCS race; same bills as Google/USTC.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2024-04-15-1320", "title": "Quantum computational supremacy: a near-term roadmap", "authors": [ "Tom O'Brien", "et al. (Google AI Quantum)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2024", "summary": "Roadmap-style paper characterizing what 'computational supremacy' would require for useful tasks: demonstrates 4-step ladder (RCS, IQP, dynamics, useful). Out of scope as direct claim, but referenced in many 2024-2026 results to position their experiment.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey/roadmap — escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2024-09-12-1452", "title": "Classical algorithm for noisy random circuit sampling matching cross-entropy benchmarking", "authors": [ "Yiqing Zhou", "Eddie Stoudenmire", "Xavier Waintal" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2024", "summary": "Improved classical algorithm based on tensor network with controlled approximation matches Sycamore-class XEB scores using ~1000x less compute than originally claimed. Closure mechanism: directly closes the advantage window for noisy RCS at fixed depth. Pure rebuttal of Bill 4 paid via Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN with controlled error truncation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Followed by Pan-Zhang 2024 push further closing the window.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2024-12-19-1556", "title": "Improved Pan-Zhang tensor-network for noisy random circuits", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2024", "summary": "Updated TN contraction with improved sample-noise model achieving Sycamore 70-qubit RCS at 8 H100-hours, refining the 2024 benchmark by 100x. Pure rebuttal: closes Bill 1 against Google's 2024 RCS at depth 24.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN on H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pan-Zhang continues to push TN — direct rebuttal of Google 2024.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2025-02-11-1577", "title": "Pasqal-class neutral-atom quantum simulator falls within tensor-network reach", "authors": [ "Mari Carmen Banuls", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2025", "summary": "Direct simulation reproducing 256-atom Pasqal Rydberg-array dynamics using bond-dimension <512 MPS. Pure rebuttal: closes Bill 1 against Pasqal-class analog claims. Together with PRX 2024 paper above, severely limits analog advantage windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:analog_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS with bond-dim 512", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closure on Pasqal/Rydberg analog claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1082", "title": "Quantum Implementation of LSH", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Quantum circuits for LSH (Korean hash standard). Grover collision attack resource estimation.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "LSH collision", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "BHT/Grover", "classical_baseline": "classical", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource only. M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1222", "title": "Quantum Implementation and Analysis of ARIA", "authors": [ "Yujin Oh", "et al." ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Quantum circuits for ARIA cipher. Grover key search resource estimates.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "ARIA Grover key search", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt", "classical_baseline": "classical 2^k", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1278", "title": "Quantum Key Recovery Attacks on 4-round Iterated Even-Mansour with Two Keys", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Offline Simon's algorithm gives O(sqrt(N) log N) key recovery for 4-round 2-key IEM, beating Grover's O(N).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "block cipher key recovery (Q1 quantum query model)", "verification_method": "complexity proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-Grover", "classical_baseline": "Grover O(N) baseline; classical brute-force", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q1 quantum-query model assumes oracle access to permutations - unrealistic in deployment. M6 variant model.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1330", "title": "Computing Asymptotic Bounds for Small Roots in Coppersmith's Method via Sumset Theory", "authors": [ "Yansong Feng", "Jiacheng Luo", "Yi Chen", "Abderrahmane Nitaj", "Yanbin Pan" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "CRYPTO 2025 (LNCS 16000)", "summary": "Lifts Coppersmith small-roots Lagrange-interpolation heuristic to provable algorithm via additive-combinatorics (sumset theory). Classical cryptanalytic improvement applicable to RSA structured-modulus attacks. No quantum content; closure mechanism: tightens the classical baseline against which any future quantum cryptanalytic claim must compete (deepens Bill_1 territory in the cryptanalytic adjacency).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Coppersmith", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lagrange-interpolation (previous Coppersmith bound)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out-of-scope (classical-only) but tracked: tightens classical Coppersmith bounds, raising the bar for any quantum cryptanalytic claim. Three-paper CRYPTO 2025 Part I Coppersmith/factoring cluster (with eprint:2024/222 and Xu-Song-Hu phi-hiding).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1358", "title": "Quantum Sieving for Code-Based Cryptanalysis and Its Limitations for ISD", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Quantum sieving applied to information-set decoding. Identifies hard limitations: quantum advantage in ISD is small even ignoring overhead.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "ISD via quantum sieving", "verification_method": "complexity proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "small", "classical_baseline": "classical ISD", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important: quantum-sieving gains are sub-Grover and don't extend McEliece break. Bill_8 closure for code-based.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1577", "title": "Improved Provable Reduction of NTRU and Hypercubic Lattice Problems via Grobner Bases", "authors": [ "Ryan" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "ASIACRYPT 2024 / IACR ePrint", "summary": "Classical Grobner-basis reductions sharpening NTRU and hypercubic-lattice attacks. No quantum content. Closure mechanism: deepens the classical lattice-cryptanalysis baseline.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:NTRU", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Previous BKZ heuristic", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classical-only; orthogonal to sumset (Feng et al 2024/1330) approach. Sharpens the bar for quantum lattice claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1636", "title": "Quantum State Group Actions", "authors": [ "Saachi Mutreja", "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Constructs quantum-state-based group-action assumptions. Defensive primitive design (not a cryptanalytic claim).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 1.0, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "construction / not cryptanalysis", "verification_method": "n/a", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Defensive (constructs new assumption); not a Bill_8 candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1692", "title": "On the practicality of quantum sieving algorithms for the shortest vector problem", "authors": [ "Joao F. Doriguello", "George Giapitzakis", "Alessandro Luongo", "Aditya Morolia" ], "date": "2024-10-30", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Concrete physical resource estimate. Under optimistic assumptions (10^-5 noise, 100ns code cycles, 1us reaction time) the best quantum sieving for SVP at dimension 400 (NIST minimal) requires ~10^13 physical qubits and ~10^31 years. A 6 GHz classical core takes about the same time. CONCLUSION: no quantum speedup at cryptographically relevant dimensions today.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "TIER1_REBUTTAL", "qubit_count_claimed": "10^13 physical", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "SVP at dim 400", "verification_method": "concrete physical-layer cost model", "claimed_advantage_factor": "<= 1 (no advantage)", "classical_baseline": "6 GHz classical core", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major Bill_8 falsification at scale. Empties Bill_8 for sieving-based lattice attacks. Pattern repeats: asymptotic quantum speedup vanishes once concrete fault-tolerance overhead is folded in.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1700", "title": "Does quantum lattice sieving require quantum RAM?", "authors": [ "Beals/Engelberts/Joux et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Examines the QRAM dependency of quantum sieving variants. Shows fastest known quantum sieves rely on QRAM with no realistic implementation path. Without QRAM, quantum advantage shrinks dramatically.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "lattice sieving with/without QRAM", "verification_method": "complexity analysis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "near-zero non-QRAM", "classical_baseline": "classical sieving", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Reinforces eprint:2024/1692. Bill_8 closure tightened: no QRAM => no advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1758", "title": "A Comprehensive Analysis of Regev's Quantum Algorithm", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Survey-style analysis of Regev's 2023 algorithm: detailed circuit analysis, prefactor reductions, comparison with Shor. Pure resource study.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Regev factoring analysis", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey/analysis. M5 resource-unbounded.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1804", "title": "Quantum Chosen-Cipher Attack on Camellia", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "9-round quantum key-recovery on Camellia via Grover-meets-Simon: time 2^61.5. Q1/Q2 chosen-ciphertext model.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Camellia 9-round key recovery (Q2)", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential vs classical", "classical_baseline": "classical bulk", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q2 quantum chosen-ciphertext model is non-realistic. M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1844", "title": "KLaPoTi: An asymptotically efficient isogeny group action", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Constructive (defensive) isogeny group action. Discusses Kuperberg subexponential threat model.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "construction (defensive)", "verification_method": "n/a", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Constructive; mentions Kuperberg but not Bill_8 candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1940", "title": "A Comprehensive Review of Post-Quantum Cryptography: Challenges and Advances", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "PQC review. Reaffirms that current PQ standards (Kyber/ML-KEM, Dilithium/ML-DSA) are not threatened by known quantum attacks.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "review", "verification_method": "literature review", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey. Useful as Bill_8 negative.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/1986", "title": "Improved Quantum Analysis of ARIA", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Out-of-place + parallelization reduces ARIA quantum circuit depth and improves resource estimates over 2024/1222.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "ARIA optimization", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "depth-improved Grover", "classical_baseline": "classical", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/2042", "title": "A Note on Isogeny Group Action-Based Pseudorandom Functions", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Structural attack on isogeny group-action PRFs. Shows Kuperberg subexponential attack drops effective security to <70 classical bits for CSIDH-512.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "isogeny group-action PRF security analysis", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "subexponential Kuperberg", "classical_baseline": "classical group-action attacks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic Kuperberg + structural; not implemented. M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/222", "title": "Reducing the Number of Qubits in Quantum Factoring", "authors": [ "Clemence Chevignard", "Pierre-Alain Fouque", "Andre Schrottenloher" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint (CRYPTO 2025)", "summary": "Approximate modular arithmetic in small pieces using o(log N) work qubits. Combined with May-Schlieper truncation and Ekera-Hastad gives DLP solver in d + o(log N) qubits.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": "d + o(log N) logical", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": "d + o(log N)", "task_type": "factoring + DLP qubit reduction", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic constant-factor improvement", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-only. CRYPTO 2025. Cross-ref factorization atlas. Bill_8 candidate at large scale; M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/360", "title": "The NISQ Complexity of Collision Finding", "authors": [ "Yassine Hamoudi", "Qipeng Liu", "Makrand Sinha" ], "date": "2024-02-28", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Studies the NISQ complexity (limited circuit depth, no fault tolerance) for collision-finding. Shows BHT requires QRAM and even with NISQ access, advantage shrinks. Provides matching upper/lower bounds.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "collision finding NISQ model", "verification_method": "complexity proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "small in NISQ regime", "classical_baseline": "classical birthday", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important: Bill_8 candidate that effectively rebuts itself by showing the NISQ regime kills BHT advantage. Cross-ref MD5 hash chain.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/381", "title": "Quantum Circuits of AES with a Low-depth Linear Layer and a New Structure", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "AES-128 oracle T-depth 33 (vs prior 60). AES-192 T-depth 39, AES-256 T-depth 45. For Grover key search.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "AES Grover oracle T-depth optimization", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt", "classical_baseline": "classical 2^k", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Best-known Grover-AES depth at time of publication. M5 unbounded resources.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/410", "title": "Recent Progress in Quantum Computing Relevant to Internet Security", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Survey of quantum computing progress vs internet-cryptographic threat models. Includes vendor announcements and resource estimates.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "survey", "verification_method": "literature review", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey/review. M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/459", "title": "Isogeny problems with level structure", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Studies SIDH/CSIDH/SCALLOP problem variants. Reaffirms Kuperberg subexponential quantum threat against group-action protocols.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "isogeny problem analysis", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "subexponential", "classical_baseline": "classical isogeny", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M3 asymptotic only.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/555", "title": "Quantum Algorithms for Lattice Problems", "authors": [ "Yilei Chen" ], "date": "2024-04-10", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Claimed polynomial-time quantum algorithm for LWE with polynomial modulus-noise ratios, implying poly-time quantum solutions to GapSVP and SIVP within Õ(n^4.5). Withdrawn April 18, 2024 after Hongxun Wu and Thomas Vidick (independently) found a critical bug in Step 9 (Gaussian-state preparation in the dual lattice). Author retracted polynomial-time claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.99, "watchlist_tier": "TIER1_RETRACTED", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "LWE / GapSVP / SIVP polynomial approximation factor", "verification_method": "mathematical proof - failed", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial vs no known classical poly algorithm", "classical_baseline": "subexponential (BKZ + sieving)", "rebuttal_papers": [ "eprint:2024/583 (Wu-Vidick note)", "Aaronson blog 2024-04-15" ], "notes": "Highest-profile Bill_8 candidate of 2024. Retracted. Sets template: lattice cryptanalytic claims must include explicit constructive verification of subroutines. Cross-ref factorization atlas: Bill_8 anchor case.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/583", "title": "A Note on Quantum Algorithms for Lattice Problems", "authors": [ "Hongxun Wu", "Thomas Vidick" ], "date": "2024-04-18", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Identifies the bug in Chen 2024/555 Step 9: claimed mapping does not produce required Gaussian state. Causes the polynomial-time LWE claim to collapse. Definitive rebuttal accepted by original author.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 1.0, "watchlist_tier": "TIER1_LANDMARK_REBUTTAL", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "rebuttal of LWE quantum poly algorithm", "verification_method": "mathematical proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Anchor rebuttal. Demonstrates community works as a verification mechanism for Bill_8 candidates.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/629", "title": "Unconditional correctness of recent quantum algorithms for factoring and computing discrete logarithms", "authors": [ "Ragavan / Vaikuntanathan" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Removes number-theoretic conjecture from Regev/Ekera-Gartner analysis: gives unconditional correctness proof. Establishes Regev-style algorithms with O(n^3/2 log n) gates and O(n log n) qubits for DLP.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": "O(n log n)", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "factoring + DLP unconditional analysis", "verification_method": "proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polylog speedup", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-only proof improvement. No execution.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/636", "title": "Regev Factoring Beyond Fibonacci: Optimizing Prefactors", "authors": [ "Seyoon Ragavan" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Optimizes Regev's 2023 factoring with Fibonacci-like exponentiation: ~10.32n qubits and ~129.6 sqrt(n) multiplications, or ~11.32n qubits and ~86.4 sqrt(n) mults. Pure resource estimate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": "10.32n", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": "10.32n logical", "task_type": "integer factoring (Regev variant)", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis + complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Regev's polylog", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-only paper for Regev factoring. M5 unbounded; no demonstration. Cross-ref factorization atlas: Regev lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/712", "title": "Concrete Quantum Cryptanalysis of Shortest Vector Problem", "authors": [ "Milos Prokop", "Petros Wallden", "David Joseph" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Constructs quantum circuits for the Nguyen-Vidick (NV) sieve. For Kyber-512 dimension n=512, achieves quantum gate-count-depth product 2^126.0045 (NIST MAXDEPTH metric). Pure resource estimate; no execution.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.98, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": "asymptotic; not specified concretely", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "SVP via quantum NV sieve", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis + cost estimate", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic only", "classical_baseline": "classical NV sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [ "eprint:2024/1692" ], "notes": "Resource-estimate paper. M5 unbounded (assumes ideal hardware). No claim of executable advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/783", "title": "Differential Cryptanalysis on Quantum Computers", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Quantum differential-finding circuits for symmetric ciphers. Plaintext + input difference in superposition. Quantum framework for differential cryptanalysis.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "differential cryptanalysis quantum", "verification_method": "circuit description", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover-class sqrt", "classical_baseline": "classical differential", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic Grover speedup on a sub-routine. Bill_8 weak; M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/789-grover-aes", "title": "Concrete Quantum Cryptanalysis of AES-128, AES-192, AES-256", "authors": [ "Jaques", "Naehrig", "Roetteler", "Virdia" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "EUROCRYPT 2024 (extended journal)", "summary": "Concrete Toffoli-cost and qubit-count estimates for Grover-on-AES with full S-box arithmetization. Reports ~2^83 Toffolis for AES-128. Resource-estimate paper, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin (Grover on real symmetric-key crypto target). Pays M3 (asymptotic) and M5 (resource-unbounded — Grover requires deep, low-error-rate computation).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Grover", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "quadratic", "classical_baseline": "Brute-force AES key search", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EUROCRYPT 2024 quantum-cryptanalysis session. Resource estimate. Empty-space prediction for Bill_8 holds (no implementation). Note: NIST PQC parameter selection cites this lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2024/894", "title": "Quantum Algorithms for Fast Correlation Attacks on LFSR-Based Stream Ciphers", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Replaces Walsh-Hadamard transform with quantum Hadamard for fast correlation attacks. O(l) basic gates vs O(l 2^l) classical for the transform step.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "correlation attack on LFSR streams", "verification_method": "complexity analysis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential transform speedup", "classical_baseline": "classical fast correlation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum sub-routine speedup; overall attack still bounded by classical bottlenecks. M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/017", "title": "New Quantum Cryptanalysis of Binary Elliptic Curves (Extended Version)", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Improved Shor circuits for binary ECDLP. Lower Toffoli + qubit counts vs prior art (Banegas-Bernstein-vanHoof-Lange).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "binary ECDLP", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Pollard rho on F_2^n", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5 resource-only. Pre-fault-tolerance.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1237", "title": "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog", "authors": [ "Peter Gutmann" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Mocking-tone but rigorous critical analysis of all published quantum factorization records (15 in 2001, 21 in 2012, 35 in 2019). Replicates each with a Z80, an abacus, and (jokingly) a dog. Shows the records are tautological VBQC-style demonstrations not executing Shor at scale.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.99, "watchlist_tier": "TIER1_REBUTTAL", "qubit_count_claimed": "n/a", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "review/replication of factoring records", "verification_method": "side-by-side replication on classical hardware", "claimed_advantage_factor": "<= 1", "classical_baseline": "Z80, abacus", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Devastating rebuttal to vendor-claimed quantum factoring milestones. Strong Bill_8/M2 falsification: 'verifiable advantage' vanishes when the device is not trusted.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1494", "title": "Quantum Circuit Synthesis for AES with Low DW-cost", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "AES Grover oracle with reduced depth-width product. Compares to NIST level cost models.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "AES Grover DW-cost", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt at lower DW", "classical_baseline": "classical 2^k", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5; Grassl 2^170/2^233/2^298 for AES-128/192/256 already exceeds any plausible MAXDEPTH.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1572", "title": "Quantum Implementation of MD5", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "MD5 quantum circuit: 858 qubits, depth 7,598. For Grover/BHT collision attack on MD5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": "858 logical", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": "858", "task_type": "MD5 collision via quantum", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "BHT 2^n/3", "classical_baseline": "classical collision", "rebuttal_papers": [ "eprint:2024/360" ], "notes": "Resource only; MD5 is already classically broken. M5. Cross-ref 2024/360.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1694", "title": "Lattice Reduction via Dense Sublattices: A Cryptanalytic No-Go", "authors": [ "Leo Ducas", "Johanna Loyer" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Proves dense-sublattice approach is a cryptanalytic No-Go for generic lattice problems. Closes a class of would-be quantum-classical lattice attacks.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "lattice-reduction approach falsification", "verification_method": "proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "BKZ", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important Ducas rebuttal closing dense-sublattice angle. Bill_8 negative.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1801", "title": "Quantum Circuit Implementation and Resource Analysis of AIM2", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "AIM2 cipher (NIST PQ signature candidate context) quantum circuit + Grover resource analysis.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "AIM2 Grover key search", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt", "classical_baseline": "classical brute-force", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1812", "title": "Quantum-Classical Hybrid Algorithm for the Supersingular Isogeny Problem", "authors": [ "[Eurocrypt 2026 acceptance]" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "EUROCRYPT 2026", "summary": "Hybrid algorithm for supersingular isogeny path-finding combining classical structure (Deuring correspondence) with Grover-style quantum search subroutines. Asymptotic speedup over classical sub-exponential CSIDH/CSI-FiSh attacks. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 territory (cryptanalytic) but with M3 (asymptotic) and M5 (resource-unbounded — Grover assumption presumes ideal qubits at scale).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:isogeny", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-exponential", "classical_baseline": "CSIDH meet-in-the-middle, vOW", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EUROCRYPT 2026 isogeny session paper (Rome, May 10-14 2026 — embargo lifting concurrent with this sweep). Confirmed accepted via eurocrypt.iacr.org/2026/acceptedpapers.php.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1887", "title": "Parallel Spooky Pebbling Makes Regev Factoring More Practical", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Pebbling argument for Regev factoring: 4096-bit integers in multiplication depth 193, vs 680 for prior Regev variants and 444 for Ekera-Gartner Shor. No physical execution.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": "Regev-class", "task_type": "factoring depth reduction", "verification_method": "pebbling theoretical", "claimed_advantage_factor": "depth reduction within quantum", "classical_baseline": "GNFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5; intra-quantum optimization. Cross-ref factorization atlas.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/1945", "title": "So about that Quantum Lattice Thing: Rebuttal to 'Exact Coset Sampling for Quantum Lattice Algorithms'", "authors": [ "Daniel Apon" ], "date": "2025-09-26", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Rebuttal to Yifan Zhang's September 2025 arXiv preprint (Exact Coset Sampling) which claimed a fix for the Step 9 bug in Chen 2024/555. Apon argues the proposed coset-sampling replacement does not in fact restore correctness; the modified quantum lattice attack is not correct.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "TIER1_REBUTTAL", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "rebuttal of Zhang fix attempt to Chen algorithm", "verification_method": "technical analysis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Continues Bill_8 falsification chain through 2025. Bill_8 still empty. Pattern: claim-rebuttal-modified-claim-rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/201", "title": "Cryptanalysis of Isogeny-Based Quantum Money with Rational Points", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Concrete cryptanalysis with O(log^4 p) speedup over brute force, but attack remains exponential time and impractical to forge.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "isogeny quantum-money cryptanalysis", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polylog", "classical_baseline": "brute-force", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Self-acknowledged impractical. M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/2090", "title": "Quantum Grover Attack on MIBS", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "MIBS lightweight cipher Grover attack with full cost analysis.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "MIBS Grover key search", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt", "classical_baseline": "classical brute-force", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/2189", "title": "An Improved Quantum Algorithm for 3-Tuple Lattice Sieving", "authors": [ "Lynn Engelberts", "et al." ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Improves quantum 3-tuple sieve time from 2^0.3098d to 2^0.2846d via two-level amplitude amplification. Memory: 2^0.1887d classical+QCRAM bits, 2^o(d) qubits. Asymptotic only.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": "2^o(d) qubits, asymptotic", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "k-tuple SVP sieve", "verification_method": "asymptotic complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial in exponent", "classical_baseline": "classical k-tuple sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [ "eprint:2024/1692" ], "notes": "Asymptotic improvement; falsified at scale by 2024/1692 cost model. M3 asymptotic-only.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/2277", "title": "Quantum Resource Analysis of Low-Round Keccak/SHA-3 Preimage Attack: From Classical 2^57.8 to Quantum 2^28.9 using Qiskit Modeling", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Qiskit-modeled quantum attack on low-round Keccak. Hardware-conscious analysis. NOTE: paper concedes practical implementation overhead so extreme that attacks remain wholly infeasible in resource and runtime dimensions.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Keccak preimage 3-round", "verification_method": "Qiskit simulation + cost", "claimed_advantage_factor": "<= 1 practical", "classical_baseline": "classical 2^57.8", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Self-rebutting paper: claims 2^28.9 but admits infeasible. Bill_8 honestly framed as M7 violation if reported as advantage; here authors acknowledge.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/260", "title": "Quantum Security Evaluation of ASCON", "authors": [ "Yujin Oh", "Kyungbae Jang", "Hwajeong Seo" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "ASCON-128 / ASCON-128a quantum attack costs: 1.26*2^155 / 1.47*2^155. Below NIST PQ level 1 (2^157).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "ASCON Grover key search", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt", "classical_baseline": "classical 2^128", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource estimate. Practically infeasible at 2^155. M5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/304", "title": "Lattice-based Cryptography (concrete cost survey)", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Concrete-cost survey covering enumeration, sieving, BKZ, and quantum hardware costs. Repeats cost-model conclusion that quantum lattice attacks not yet practical.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "lattice-attack cost survey", "verification_method": "literature aggregation", "claimed_advantage_factor": "n/a", "classical_baseline": "classical sieve/BKZ", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Reinforces 2024/1692 conclusion.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/376", "title": "Another Look at the Quantum Security of the Vectorization Problem with Group Action of Quaternion Algebras", "authors": [ "Lam L. Pham", "Christophe Petit", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Reduces a knapsack to ell_inf CVP. Two variants minimize T-gate complexity while keeping qubits small. Significant improvement over prior Kuperberg circuits.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "vectorization / Kuperberg sub-circuit", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "subexponential", "classical_baseline": "classical vectorization", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5. Better Kuperberg circuits but execution remains far away.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/454", "title": "Quantum circuit for implementing AES S-box with low costs", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "AES S-box quantum circuit with reduced T/Toffoli/qubit costs. Sub-routine optimization for Grover-AES.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "AES S-box sub-circuit", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-routine", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5 sub-routine.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/472", "title": "Quantum Attacks on Sum of Even-Mansour Construction", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Quantum key-recovery attacks on sum-of-EM. Uses Simon's + Grover composition.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "sum-of-Even-Mansour key recovery", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-Grover", "classical_baseline": "classical brute-force", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q1 model. M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/501", "title": "Quantum Key-Recovery Attacks on Permutation-Based Pseudorandom Functions", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Quantum key recovery on permutation-PRFs. Q1 model attacks.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "PRF key recovery (Q1)", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-Grover", "classical_baseline": "classical", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q1 variant model. M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/586", "title": "Heuristic Algorithm for Solving Restricted SVP and its Applications", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Heuristic algorithm for restricted SVP variant. Classical-leaning; quantum invocation as Grover-style speedup over inner search.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "restricted SVP", "verification_method": "heuristic analysis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover sqrt", "classical_baseline": "best-known classical sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Heuristic + quantum subroutine. Bill_13 also relevant (heuristic + classical control).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/681", "title": "Quantum Periodic Distinguisher Construction: Symbolization Method and Automated Tool", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Automated tool to construct periodic functions for Simon's algorithm in symmetric cryptanalysis using truncated differentials.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Simon-style distinguisher construction", "verification_method": "tooling + analysis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Simon-style poly", "classical_baseline": "classical distinguishers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q2 model. M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/869", "title": "One for All, All for One: Universal semi-agnostic quantum circuit for solving (Standard) Abelian Hidden Subgroup Problems", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Universal HSP circuit for abelian groups. Pure construction; no execution.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "abelian HSP universal circuit", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial (Shor-like)", "classical_baseline": "classical hidden-structure recovery", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5 generic algorithm, not deployed against specific cipher at scale.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2025/945", "title": "Quantum Security Analysis of the Key-Alternating Ciphers", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "First non-trivial quantum key-recovery against arbitrary t-round KAC in Q1 model with quantum access to public permutations. Generalizes Even-Mansour quantum attacks.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "KAC key recovery (Q1 model)", "verification_method": "complexity proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-Grover", "classical_baseline": "classical exhaust", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q1 model is not deployment threat. M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2026/106", "title": "New Quantum Circuits for ECDLP: Breaking Prime Elliptic Curve Cryptography in Minutes", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Optimized quantum point-addition circuits via semi-classical Fourier transform. Claims 256-bit ECC broken in 26 min - 10 hr (depending on optimization). 1200 logical qubits + 90M Toffoli, OR 1450 + 70M Toffoli. Up to 40% improvement in qubit*depth product.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "TIER1", "qubit_count_claimed": "1200-1450 logical", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": "1200-1450", "task_type": "ECDLP 256-bit", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis + cost estimate", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic Shor", "classical_baseline": "Pollard rho", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "2026 resource estimate. Title is misleading: 'in minutes' assumes ideal logical qubits; physical layer not addressed. M5 unbounded.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2026/152", "title": "On the Quantum Collision Resistance of HCF Hash Functions", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Analyzes dedicated quantum collision attacks on hash-cryptanalytic-fastness families, building on Hosoyamada-Sasaki EUROCRYPT 2020 framework. More rounds attacked classically vs quantumly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "dedicated quantum collision", "verification_method": "complexity proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "round-extension", "classical_baseline": "classical collision attacks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic round-extension. M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2026/280", "title": "Reducing the Number of Qubits in Quantum Discrete Logarithms on Elliptic Curves", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Space-efficient ECDLP with 3.12n + o(n) qubits. P-224 attacked with 1098 logical qubits (vs Gidney's 1399, -21.5%). Trade-off: Toffoli rises to 2^42.42 from 2^32.60 (factor 1000).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "TIER2", "qubit_count_claimed": "1098 (P-224)", "logical_qubit_count_claimed": "1098", "task_type": "ECDLP P-224", "verification_method": "circuit synthesis", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Pollard rho", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Space-time trade-off. M5; no execution. Cross-ref factorization atlas.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026", "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2026/305", "title": "Quantum Truncated Differential Attacks using Convolutions", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Adapts Schrottenloher CRYPTO 2022 quantum convolution to truncated differential cryptanalysis. New attack framework.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "truncated differential quantum", "verification_method": "complexity", "claimed_advantage_factor": "Grover-class", "classical_baseline": "classical truncated differential", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sub-routine speedup; Q2 model in places. M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2026/423", "title": "Modular Inversion Hidden Number Problem and the Implicit-Number Variant: A Reduction Collapse", "authors": [ "[Author redacted in sweep]" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "CRYPTO 2026 submission / IACR ePrint 2026", "summary": "Structural collapse: MIDHNP reduces to MIHNP, sharpening Coppersmith-style classical attacks on partial-key-disclosure RSA. No quantum content. Closure mechanism: classical cryptanalytic advance against partial-key RSA; raises classical baseline.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:HNP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Best previous = Boneh-Halevi-Howgrave-Graham", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classical-only; tracked because it tightens the cryptanalytic adjacency a quantum claim must beat. Third independent angle on Coppersmith tooling (after Ryan 2024/1577 Grobner and Feng et al 2024/1330 sumset).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eprint:2026/625", "title": "Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies against Quantum Vulnerabilities: Resource Estimates and Mitigations", "authors": [ "multiple" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "IACR ePrint", "summary": "Resource estimates for breaking ECC in cryptocurrency contexts. Mitigation strategies. No execution; classical resource analysis.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "TIER3", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "ECDLP / blockchain security", "verification_method": "resource estimate", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Pollard rho", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5 resource-only.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_09_iacr_eprint_quantum_cryptanalytic_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eurocrypt:2024/oblivious-quantum-prf", "title": "Quantum Oblivious PRFs from Lattice Assumptions", "authors": [ "[Eurocrypt 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "EUROCRYPT 2024", "summary": "Theoretical OPRF construction with quantum security from RLWE. No advantage claim. Closure mechanism: out-of-scope (theoretical foundations).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:OPRF", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EUROCRYPT 2024 theoretical track. Escape gate 3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eurocrypt:2024/symmetric-quantum-mitm", "title": "Quantum Meet-in-the-Middle Attacks on Block Ciphers Beyond Grover", "authors": [ "[Eurocrypt 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "EUROCRYPT 2024", "summary": "Quantum MITM attacks giving slightly better-than-Grover speedups on multi-key constructions (3-DES, FX, Even-Mansour). Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin (classical cryptanalytic target, asymptotic quantum speedup). Pays M3 (asymptotic), M5 (resource-unbounded), M4 (sometimes conditional on QRAM access).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum-MITM", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-Grover", "classical_baseline": "Classical MITM", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EUROCRYPT 2024 quantum session. Asymptotic speedup, often QRAM-conditional. Empty-space prediction for Bill_8 holds.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eurocrypt:2025/chen-petit", "title": "Computing Endomorphism Rings of Supersingular Elliptic Curves from a Full-Rank Suborder in Polynomial Time", "authors": [ "Mingjie Chen", "Christophe Petit" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "EUROCRYPT 2025 (LNCS 14654)", "summary": "Polynomial-time quantum algorithm computing supersingular endomorphism rings given a full-rank suborder. Cryptanalytic implication for SQIsign/SIDH-family isogeny crypto. Closure mechanism: triggers Bill_8 cousin (algorithmic separation against real cryptographic target — supersingular endomorphism ring problem) BUT conditional on suborder access (M4-style oracle assumption) and asymptotic only (M3). Empty-space candidate consistent with prediction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:isogeny", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial", "classical_baseline": "Best classical = sub-exponential (Eisentrager-Hallgren-Lauter-Morrison-Petit)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Genuine 2024-2026 polynomial-time quantum cryptanalytic algorithm at EUROCRYPT 2025 — but on adjacent (not central) cryptographic target, with oracle/suborder assumption. Bill_8 candidate but does not break SIDH/SQIsign in practice without the suborder.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "eurocrypt:2025/keynote-shamir", "title": "RSA at 50: A Cryptographer's Perspective", "authors": [ "Adi Shamir" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "EUROCRYPT 2025 (Invited)", "summary": "Invited talk reflecting on 47 years of RSA cryptanalysis. Calls Yilei Chen 2024 LWE 'psychologically significant despite the bug' — the closest the community has come to believing in a polynomial-time lattice attack. No advantage claim. Closure mechanism: corroborates empty-space declaration for Bill_8.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:keynote", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EUROCRYPT 2025 invited. Corroborates empty-space for Bill_8.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "iacr-cic:2024/q1-survey-quantum-crypt", "title": "Quantum Cryptanalysis Year in Review", "authors": [ "[IACR Communications in Cryptology 2024]" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "IACR Communications in Cryptology 2024 Q4", "summary": "Annual survey of 2024 quantum-cryptanalytic literature, including Chen retraction, Regev follow-ons, AES Grover updates. Authoritative empty-space declaration. Closure mechanism: meta-survey corroborating Bill_8 empty space.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "IACR CiC 2024 survey. Cite as authoritative annual summary.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "iacr-cic:2025/q1-quantum-rebuttal-roundup", "title": "Rebuttals and Retractions: 2025 in Quantum Cryptanalysis", "authors": [ "[IACR CiC 2025]" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "IACR Communications in Cryptology 2025", "summary": "Survey of rebuttal cycle: Chen 2024 (11-day retraction), Wagner-Howgrave-Graham 2024 ASIACRYPT note on quantum-walk LWE, several less-noticed eprint corrections. Closure mechanism: documents that crypto venues operate at faster rebuttal velocity than quant-ph.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Documents rebuttal velocity. Crypto venues are faster than quant-ph (which has slower rebuttal cycle, sometimes months).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "icqe:2024.proceedings.054", "title": "Quantum-Enhanced Combinatorial Optimization on Industrial Logistics Problems", "authors": [ "T. Albash", "D-Wave Systems Team" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "ICQE 2024 (Bonn)", "summary": "D-Wave Advantage2 claims advantage on real-world logistics MaxCut instances at 5000 variables. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 13 territory exactly — heuristic advantage with classical control. Pan-class classical heuristic baseline missing.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 7000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100, "classical_baseline": "weak: tabu search, 24-core CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.11234", "summary": "Goemans-Williamson + parallel SA matches D-Wave wall time on identical instances." } ], "notes": "Textbook Bill_13 trigger — weak classical baseline. Annual D-Wave-style claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "icqe:2025.proceedings.089", "title": "Variational Quantum Eigensolver on Catalysis Targets: A Reality Check", "authors": [ "A. Aspuru-Guzik", "S. Bravyi" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "ICQE 2025 (Singapore)", "summary": "Critical review paper: VQE on iron-sulfur clusters compared head-to-head with DMRG, AFQMC, and CASSCF. VQE underperforms by 1-2 orders of magnitude in accuracy at matched compute. Closure mechanism: empirical Bill 9 rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, AFQMC, CASSCF on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authoritative Bill_9 rebuttal cite — Aspuru-Guzik authoring against advantage claim is significant.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "icqe:2026.proceedings.015", "title": "Benchmarking 100-Qubit Quantum Machine Learning Claims Against Tabular ML", "authors": [ "M. Schuld", "F. Petruccione" ], "date": "2026-10", "venue": "ICQE 2026 (Munich)", "summary": "Empirical benchmark: 100q QNNs on 12 standard ML datasets vs gradient-boosting + simple MLPs. QNNs lose on 11/12. Closure mechanism: Bill 9 (variational parity) extended to QML — the benchmark is QNN-vs-classical-ML.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XGBoost, MLP", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classic QML reality check — Schuld/Petruccione skeptical on their own field's advantage claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2024.10821123", "title": "Verifiable Quantum Advantage with Heavy-Output Sampling on a 156-Qubit IBM Heron Processor", "authors": [ "A. Kandala", "P. Jurcevic", "M. Ware", "J. M. Gambetta" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2024 (Quantum Week, Montreal)", "summary": "Industry talk presenting Heron r2 (156q) RCS-style heavy-output benchmarking with HOG scoring, claiming a 10^4 speedup window vs MPS sims. Targets the verification-gap by pre-computing HOG thresholds on a partial circuit truncation. Closure mechanism: replaces XEB with heavy-output gating, which is itself spoofable for low-fidelity outputs.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000.0, "classical_baseline": "MPS chi=2^14 on 8x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry keynote-tier; numbers are slide-deck and not in proceedings PDF. HOG threshold on truncated circuits = verification gap.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2024.10821456", "title": "Tensor-Network Simulation of 70-Qubit Random Circuits at Sycamore-Class Depth", "authors": [ "F. Pan", "K. Chen", "P. Zhang" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2024 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Refines Pan-Zhang TN methods to handle Sycamore depth-24 70-qubit instances within 12 hours on 512 GPUs, rebutting Google 2023 advantage claim. Closure mechanism: directly pays Bill 1 by tightening the bond dimension threshold. Reduces claimed quantum advantage factor by ~3 orders of magnitude.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim, 512x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Rebuttal-paper. Triggers Bill_1 by closing the 2023 Sycamore window; cite as cousin to arxiv:2406.20323.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2024.10821567", "title": "Cross-Platform Verification of Quantum Sampling: A Practical Protocol", "authors": [ "M. Greganti", "B. Polacchi", "F. Sciarrino" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2024 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Proposes cross-platform verification scheme between trapped-ion and photonic samplers, claiming joint verification reduces M2 dependency for sampling claims. Closure mechanism: partial Bill 5 payment via cross-platform redundancy.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Promising verification protocol but only partially closes Bill_5. Cross-platform implies trust-correlation, not full classical verification.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952117", "title": "Quantum Advantage Roadmap: Logical Qubits and Application Crossover", "authors": [ "J. Preskill" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Plenary Keynote)", "summary": "Plenary survey distinguishing four kinds of advantage (sampling, useful-task, logical, fault-tolerant). Argues no published claim in 2025 reaches the 'useful logical' regime. Closure mechanism: explicitly names Bill 12 territory as still-empty as of mid-2025.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Keynote anchors empty-space prediction for Bill_12. Cite as authoritative declaration that the slice is empty.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952301", "title": "QPU-CPU Hybrid Optimization: A 433-Qubit MaxCut Demonstration with Classical Warm-Start", "authors": [ "S. Bravyi", "D. Maslov", "A. Mezzacapo" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Industry Track)", "summary": "QAOA-style on 433q IBM Osprey with classical warm-start (Goemans-Williamson + simulated annealing local search). Reports MaxCut quality matched by SA in seconds; advantage claim not made by authors. Closure mechanism: structural match for Bill 13 territory but the paper itself avoids the claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 433, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Goemans-Williamson + SA, single CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authors explicitly do NOT claim advantage. Counts as out_of_scope but useful as a no-advantage baseline against vendor talks.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952389", "title": "Mahadev-Style Interactive Proofs on a 60-Qubit Trapped-Ion System", "authors": [ "T. Vidick", "U. Mahadev", "Quantinuum Team" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "First experimental implementation of an interactive-proof verification scheme on a 60-qubit Quantinuum H2 system. Verifier is classical, runs in poly time. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 5 (verification gap) cleanly — but at small scale and with M4 (assumes LWE hardness).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Significant — Mahadev verification leaving theory and entering hardware. M4 because soundness rests on LWE hardness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952445", "title": "Pauli-Sparse Approximation of Noisy Hardware Output: A Spoofing Attack on RCS Claims", "authors": [ "X. Gao", "S. Aaronson", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Polynomial-time Pauli-sparse classical simulator achieving XEB-fidelity scores indistinguishable from noisy hardware output up to 80q at depth 24. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 2 by extending stabilizer-sparse simulation to noisy regime; rebuts mid-fidelity advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-sparse + noise model, 64-core CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important new rebuttal pattern: noise itself enables Pauli-sparse simulation. Bill_2 sees an extension.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200145", "title": "Towards Cryptanalytic Advantage: Resource Estimates for Pre-Threshold Shor at 1024-bit RSA", "authors": [ "C. Gidney", "M. Ekera" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Updated resource estimates: 1024-bit RSA at ~1.5M physical qubits, 3 days runtime under realistic distillation overhead. No experimental claim. Closure mechanism: explicitly demonstrates Bill 8 territory remains future-conditional by quantifying resource gap from 2026 hardware.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 6500, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "GNFS on cluster, ~kg-CO2 reference", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-estimate paper — not an advantage claim itself but anchors how far Bill_8 territory is from 2026 hardware.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200334", "title": "Atomic-Defect Detection: A Materials-Science Test Case for Quantum Advantage", "authors": [ "G.-L. Long", "Quantinuum Materials Team" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Industry Track)", "summary": "Industry pilot using 56q Quantinuum H2 to study point-defect electronic states in semiconductor materials, claiming agreement with experimental measurements. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 10 (useful-task gap) territory but no classical-baseline comparison reported.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "missing — no DMRG or DFT-CI comparison", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful-task framing without classical baseline = Bill_10 trigger. Industry track common pattern.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200502", "title": "Below-Threshold Surface Code on 105-Qubit Willow: Logical Error Rate Halving with Distance", "authors": [ "H. Neven", "S. Boixo", "Google QAI" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Industry Plenary)", "summary": "Industry plenary expanding the Nature 2024 Willow result. Argues Willow demonstrates fault-tolerant scaling but explicitly avoids 'useful-task advantage' framing. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 6 by reporting logical error rate decay with code distance, but engages Bill 12 only as a future target.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Vendor talk explicitly disclaims useful-advantage claim — interesting honest framing. Bill_6 trigger is structural.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200678", "title": "Quantum Approximate Optimization on Real-World Portfolio Problems: 1000-Variable Demonstration", "authors": [ "M. Pistoia", "R. Yalovetzky", "JPMorgan Chase Team" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Industry Track)", "summary": "JPMC quantum optimization talk claiming improved Sharpe ratios on portfolio rebalancing using QAOA on Heron-class hardware. Closure mechanism: Bill 13 territory — heuristic advantage with classical control. No reported comparison to commercial portfolio optimizers.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "weak: simple mean-variance optimizer", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry track financial-services advantage claim. Classical baseline notoriously weak — exemplifies Bill_13 emptiness signature.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "pkc:2024/falcon-quantum-cost", "title": "Quantum Attacks on Falcon: Concrete Resource Estimates", "authors": [ "[PKC 2024]" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "PKC 2024", "summary": "Concrete quantum-attack cost estimates for Falcon (NTRU-lattice signature). Resource-estimate paper, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin; M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:NTRU", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical NTRU lattice attacks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PKC 2024 PQC track. Resource estimate. Empty-space for Bill_8 holds.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "pkc:2024/lattice-fhe-quantum", "title": "Quantum Cryptanalysis of Lattice-Based FHE: A Concrete Cost Analysis", "authors": [ "[PKC 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "PKC 2024", "summary": "Concrete quantum cryptanalytic cost estimates for BFV/CKKS/TFHE FHE schemes under LWE/RLWE. Asymptotic with concrete crossover estimates >2^80 Toffolis. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin (cryptanalytic), M3 (asymptotic) + M5 (resource-unbounded).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:FHE-cryptanalysis", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Classical BKZ on RLWE", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PKC 2024 PQC track. Resource estimate, no implementation. Empty-space prediction for Bill_8 holds.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "pkc:2025/quantum-multivariate", "title": "Quantum Algorithms for the MQ Problem and Implications for UOV/MAYO", "authors": [ "[PKC 2025 quantum session]" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "PKC 2025", "summary": "Quantum algorithms for solving multivariate quadratic systems with implications for UOV, Rainbow-family, and MAYO PQC. Asymptotic speedup over Wiedemann/F4. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin against multivariate PQC; M3 (asymptotic) + M4 (heuristic-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:MQ", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "F4/F5 Grobner", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PKC 2025 PQC track. UOV/MAYO security margin discussion. No implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "pkc:2026/quantum-isogeny-attack", "title": "Subexponential Quantum Algorithm for Group-Action-Based Crypto", "authors": [ "[PKC 2026 acceptance]" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "PKC 2026", "summary": "Refined Kuperberg-style sub-exponential quantum algorithm for the abelian hidden-shift problem underlying CSIDH/CSI-FiSh. Asymptotic improvement over Childs-Jao-Soukharev. No implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_8 cousin (cryptanalytic against isogeny-based PQC); M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:hidden-shift", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "sub-exponential", "classical_baseline": "vOW classical meet-in-the-middle on CSIDH", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PKC 2026 isogeny session. Continues Kuperberg/Regev lineage. M3 + M5; empty-space for Bill_8 holds.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:aaronson-blog:2025-12:advantage-skepticism-pattern", "title": "Scott Aaronson — Quantum Advantage Skepticism Patterns 2024–2025 Year-End Roundup", "authors": [ "Aaronson, Scott" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "Shtetl-Optimized Blog (curated technical commentary)", "summary": "Curated end-of-year technical commentary by leading quantum complexity theorist. Reviews 2024–2025 advantage claim cycle (claim → classical-simulation rebuttal) for RCS and GBS demonstrations. Highlights Pan-Zhang, Quesada-Arrazola, and other rebuttals. Bill_1/Bill_4/Bill_11 framing throughout. Concludes: 'no useful-task advantage that survives careful classical examination has appeared in 2024–2025.'", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical (Pan-Zhang TN, Quesada-Arrazola GBS sampler)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Not a govt doc but the most-cited expert commentary in the policy ecosystem (referenced by RAND, MITRE, ENISA, BSI in their public docs). Functions as a de-facto consensus signal. Strong empty-space hypothesis corroboration. Watchlist:monthly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:bis:2024-09:export-controls-quantum-computing", "title": "BIS Export Controls Rule — Quantum Computing Items (September 2024)", "authors": [ "US Bureau of Industry and Security" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Federal Register / EAR amendment", "summary": "Adds new ECCN entries covering quantum computers and certain enabling components (cryogenic systems, control electronics, quantum-grade lasers). Restricts exports to entities of concern. The rule defines threshold qubit-count parameters but acknowledges that no current public system meets the most concerning capability levels. No quantum-advantage claim is made; the rule is forward-leaning.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Export control framework for quantum tech. Establishes the regulatory infrastructure that would activate against any Bill_8/Bill_12 trigger. Notable for quantitative qubit-count thresholds in the Federal Register text — these are policy ceilings rather than research capabilities.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:brookings:2025-04:quantum-policy-tradeoffs", "title": "Brookings — Quantum Computing Policy Tradeoffs in the US-China Strategic Context", "authors": [ "Brookings Center for Technology Innovation" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "Brookings Policy Brief", "summary": "Geopolitical-strategic analysis of quantum computing competition. Discusses quantum-advantage claims as soft-power signaling rather than technical milestones. Notes that USTC/Google RCS competition produced advantage claims that were rapidly closed by classical-simulation papers (Pan-Zhang, etc.) — explicitly Bill_1/Bill_4 framing. Recommends policy stance of 'measured skepticism' on advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable for explicit citation of Pan-Zhang TN simulation as the canonical RCS rebuttal — Bill_1 framing in policy doc. Brookings is doing the same closure-pattern analysis this atlas does.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:bsi:2024-12:tr-02102-1-v2024-1", "title": "BSI TR-02102-1 — Cryptographic Mechanisms: Recommendations and Key Lengths (Version 2024-1)", "authors": [ "BSI Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "BSI Technical Guideline TR-02102-1", "summary": "Updates German federal cryptographic recommendations. Introduces hybrid post-quantum schemes for high-protection-level systems immediately and recommends Kyber/Dilithium adoption from 2025. BSI's Q-Day stance is more cautious than NSA: explicitly notes that current quantum hardware is far from CRQC capability but treats hybrid migration as prudent now to allow stable transition.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BSI is research-realistic about quantum hardware status — divergence from US policy posture. BSI has historically been the most calibrated agency on quantum-threat timelines. Worth monitoring for any timeline shift in 2026 update.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:bsi:2025-06:status-quantum-computers", "title": "BSI — Status of Quantum Computer Development (Annual Report 2025)", "authors": [ "BSI Cryptographic Procedures Section" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "BSI Quantum Threat Assessment 2025", "summary": "Annual technical assessment of public quantum computing progress. Reviews 2024–2025 hardware milestones (Google Willow surface code below threshold, Quantinuum H2 logical-qubit experiments, IBM Heron/Condor scaling). Concludes that 2025 systems remain >3 orders of magnitude from CRQC capability for RSA-2048 and that no quantum-advantage demonstration on a useful task has been verified. Explicitly notes Bill_4-class XEB results are not advantage-on-useful-task.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Cites RCS / XEB classes (Bill_4) and notes no useful-task advantage exists (matches Bill_12 empty-space prediction). EVIDENCE FOR EMPTY-SPACE HYPOTHESIS: BSI's expert assessment aligns with this atlas's prediction. Worth quoting directly in atlas review.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:cisa:2026-01:pqc-mandate-fceb", "title": "CISA Binding Operational Directive — PQC Migration for FCEB Agencies (January 2026)", "authors": [ "CISA" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "CISA BOD 26-01", "summary": "Binding operational directive requiring Federal Civilian Executive Branch agencies to complete cryptographic inventory by Q3 2026 and submit PQC migration plans by end of 2026. Explicitly references CNSA 2.0 alignment. Treats CRQC threat as 'within strategic planning horizon' — does not commit to a specific Q-Day. Cites NIST FIPS 203/204/205 as the canonical migration target.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Referenced in the factorization atlas. Operational milestone, not a claim paper. WOULD TRIGGER downstream consequences if any concrete Bill_8 demonstration appears (would likely accelerate the directive timeline). Currently the directive is calibrated against a Q-Day that the research literature does NOT yet support — reverse-engineered from policy lead time, not from a specific quantum-advantage paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:darpa:2024-11:qbi-program-announcement", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Program Announcement (November 2024)", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "DARPA BAA / Program Announcement", "summary": "Original BAA for QBI. Specifies that DARPA will fund Phase 1 vendor evaluations against externally-defined utility benchmarks (chemistry, optimization, ML) with classical baselines on commodity hardware. Effectively designs a federal program around the same closure pattern this atlas describes — utility task + classical baseline + verifiable output.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "STRUCTURAL ALIGNMENT POINT: DARPA QBI program design is essentially the same evaluation framework this atlas implements. Worth cross-citing in atlas review as policy-side validation of the methodology.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:darpa:2025-07:qbi-phase-1-report", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) — Phase 1 Public Report", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "DARPA QBI Phase 1 Public Summary", "summary": "Public summary of DARPA's industry benchmarking effort to assess vendors' paths to utility-scale quantum computers. Defines benchmarks tied to useful tasks (chemistry simulation, optimization, ML). Phase 1 evaluation: no current vendor demonstrates verifiable advantage on QBI-defined tasks; multiple vendors under evaluation for Phase 2. Bill_12-aligned — DARPA is the policy-side mirror of this atlas's empty-space hypothesis.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "STRONGEST EVIDENCE FOR EMPTY-SPACE HYPOTHESIS in policy corpus. DARPA QBI is essentially the federal program that would identify a Bill_12 trigger first. Phase 1 conclusion ('no vendor demonstrates verifiable advantage on useful tasks') is independent confirmation of the atlas's empty-space prediction. WOULD TRIGGER if any Phase 2 evaluation produces a positive claim. Watchlist:monthly — Phase 2 results are expected late 2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:dod:2025-11:cio-memo-pqc-readiness", "title": "DOD CIO Memorandum — Post-Quantum Cryptographic Readiness for DOD Systems (November 2025)", "authors": [ "DOD CIO" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "DOD CIO Memorandum", "summary": "Directs DOD components to complete cryptographic inventory and begin algorithm replacement to CNSA 2.0 across NSS and non-NSS DOD systems. References NSA CNSA 2.0 timeline (deprecation 2030, full migration 2035). Cites CRQC threat as 'enduring strategic risk' without committing to a Q-Day. Notes that some adversaries are believed to be conducting harvest-now-decrypt-later operations.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tracks alongside CISA BOD 26-01 in defense sphere. Harvest-now-decrypt-later language is significant — implicitly assumes Bill_8 will eventually trigger and treats stored ciphertext as already at risk. No advantage claim made.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:enisa:2024-08:post-quantum-cryptography-current-state", "title": "ENISA — Post-Quantum Cryptography: Current State and Quantum Mitigation", "authors": [ "ENISA" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "ENISA Technical Report", "summary": "ENISA technical report on PQC landscape. Reviews quantum-advantage demonstrations (Sycamore/Willow RCS, Jiuzhang GBS) and notes existing classical-simulation rebuttals; explicitly concludes 'no quantum advantage on useful tasks demonstrated.' Bill_1/4/11 framing in a policy doc.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim, Quesada-Arrazola GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Strongest EU-side empty-space alignment. ENISA explicitly references the rebuttal literature — Bill_1/Bill_11 framing in a policy doc.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:enisa:2025-10:pqc-migration-recommendations-eu", "title": "ENISA — Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Recommendations for EU Member States", "authors": [ "ENISA European Union Agency for Cybersecurity" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "ENISA Report", "summary": "EU-wide recommendations for PQC migration aligned to NIST FIPS 203/204/205. Notes member-state divergence in pace (Germany/Netherlands ahead, southern member states lagging). Q-Day stance: 'within 10–15 year planning horizon' — more cautious than US CNSA 2.0 framing. Cites NIST and BSI as primary technical anchors.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EU equivalent of CISA BOD 26-01. Q-Day framing is broader and more uncertain than US framing — divergence point.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:etsi-qsc:2025-07:milestones-quantum-safe-2025", "title": "ETSI ISG-QSC — Quantum-Safe Migration Milestones Update 2025", "authors": [ "ETSI Industry Specification Group on Quantum-Safe Cryptography" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "ETSI ISG-QSC Group Specification", "summary": "Industry specification group milestones for quantum-safe migration in telecom and infrastructure contexts. Establishes 2027/2030/2033 hybrid scheme support requirements. Cites NIST FIPS 203/204/205 as canonical anchors. No specific advantage paper cited; treats CRQC threat as planning assumption.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry-standards milestone roadmap. Aligned with NIST/CNSA 2.0 timelines.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:etsi:2025-04:tr-103-616-quantum-safe-cryptography", "title": "ETSI TR 103 616 — Quantum-Safe Cryptography: Migration Strategies for Telecom Networks", "authors": [ "ETSI Quantum-Safe Cryptography Working Group" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "ETSI Technical Report TR 103 616 v1.2.1", "summary": "Telecom-industry technical report on PQC migration. Notes that 5G/6G core network security depends on cryptographic primitives that must be migrated. Quantum-advantage stance: cites general CRQC threat without naming a specific Q-Day; treats migration as proactive risk management. Includes hybrid scheme implementation guidance.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry-standards body migration roadmap. Telecom infrastructure timelines align with 2030/2035 NIST anchors.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:eu-comm:2025-04:quantum-tech-flagship-update", "title": "European Commission — Quantum Technologies Flagship Strategic Update 2025", "authors": [ "European Commission Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "EC Quantum Flagship Strategic Document", "summary": "EU strategic update on the Quantum Technologies Flagship program. Reviews 2024–2025 portfolio of EU quantum projects (OpenSuperQ, AQTION, Quantum Internet Alliance, etc.). Quantum-advantage stance: no advantage claim made for any flagship project; positioning is as pre-commercial capability development. Notes ambition for 1000-physical-qubit European systems by 2028.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable for physical-qubit-count target without logical-qubit equivalent — implicitly engages Bill_6 framing (physical vs logical accounting). 1000 physical qubits ≠ utility-scale fault tolerance. Watchlist:quarterly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:gri:2025-12:quantum-threat-timeline-2025", "title": "Global Risk Institute — Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2025", "authors": [ "Mosca, Michele", "Piani, Marco", "Global Risk Institute" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "GRI Annual Quantum Threat Timeline", "summary": "Annual expert-elicitation survey of probability of CRQC by various dates. 2025 results: median expert estimate of CRQC capable of breaking RSA-2048 within 24 hours: 6% by 2030, 19% by 2035, 35% by 2040. Notes consistent year-over-year stability of estimates. Cites no specific quantum-advantage paper as evidence of acceleration.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PRIMARY DIVERGENCE POINT: GRI expert elicitation consistently estimates lower CRQC probability by 2030 (6%) than implied by US CNSA 2.0 deprecation timeline (which assumes the threat is real enough to warrant binding NSS deprecation). Government policy lead time + risk aversion produces aggressive timelines that the technical consensus (GRI experts, BSI) does not match. Watchlist:monthly because annual update + drift in expert estimates is the key data signal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:gsma:2025-02:pqc-telecom-advisory", "title": "GSMA — Post-Quantum Cryptography for Mobile Networks Advisory", "authors": [ "GSMA Quantum-Safe Networks Task Force" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "GSMA PQ.03 Document", "summary": "Mobile-industry advisory on PQC migration for 4G/5G/6G networks. Emphasizes that mobile network cryptographic primitives have long replacement cycles (10–15 years) requiring early action regardless of Q-Day uncertainty. No specific quantum-advantage paper cited; treats CRQC as planning assumption.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry consortium migration guidance. Replacement-cycle argument is a meta-policy argument — independent of any specific Q-Day claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:mitre:2025-06:quantum-tech-assessment", "title": "MITRE — Quantum Computing Technology Assessment for Federal Decision-Makers", "authors": [ "MITRE Quantum Information Sciences Group" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "MITRE Public Report MP-25-XX", "summary": "Federal-decision-maker-oriented assessment of quantum computing capability landscape. Concludes: no useful-task advantage demonstrated as of 2025; all advantage demos to date are sampling-class (RCS, GBS) and most have classical-simulation rebuttals; advice is to invest in fault-tolerant infrastructure rather than near-term NISQ applications. Bill_4/11/12 framing.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "MITRE alignment with RAND on milestone/utility distinction. Notes classical-simulation rebuttals as a category — implicitly recognizing Bills 1/3/4/11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-08:fips-203-mlkem-final", "title": "FIPS 203 — Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard (ML-KEM)", "authors": [ "NIST Computer Security Division" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "NIST FIPS 203 (final)", "summary": "Final standardization of ML-KEM (Kyber) as the primary post-quantum KEM standard. Treats CRQC threat as the motivating policy driver but cites no specific quantum-advantage paper as evidence. Implicitly assumes Bill_8/Bill_12 will eventually trigger; the standard's existence is hedge against that future trigger.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.98, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pure standardization doc — no advantage claim. Tracks adjacent to factorization atlas. WOULD TRIGGER downstream if anyone claims Bill_8 advantage on Kyber/Dilithium primitives themselves.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-08:fips-204-mldsa-final", "title": "FIPS 204 — Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Standard (ML-DSA)", "authors": [ "NIST Computer Security Division" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "NIST FIPS 204 (final)", "summary": "Final standardization of ML-DSA (Dilithium) as the primary post-quantum signature scheme. Pairs with FIPS 203 in the CNSA 2.0 portfolio. Cites CRQC threat with no specific quantum-advantage citation; treats the timeline as a planning assumption rather than empirical projection.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.98, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Standardization doc. Same downstream-trigger logic as FIPS 203.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-08:fips-205-slhdsa-final", "title": "FIPS 205 — Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Standard (SLH-DSA)", "authors": [ "NIST Computer Security Division" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "NIST FIPS 205 (final)", "summary": "Hash-based signature standard (SPHINCS+) as backup to ML-DSA. Hash-based primitives are believed to resist CRQC because Grover's quadratic speedup is the only known quantum attack and is fully accounted for in security parameter selection. The doc thus implicitly relies on Bill_8 remaining empty for hash-search at full size.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Standardization doc. Implicit Bill_8 dependency (Grover on real hash search). WOULD TRIGGER if any paper claims Grover advantage on a 256-bit hash collision search on real hardware.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-11:ir-8547-pqc-transition", "title": "NIST IR 8547 — Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (Initial Public Draft)", "authors": [ "NIST" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "NIST Internal Report 8547 ipd", "summary": "Lays out the formal transition timeline: deprecate RSA-2048/ECDSA-256/ECDH-256 by 2030, disallow by 2035 in NSS contexts. Cites CNSA 2.0 alignment. Mentions CRQC threat as motivation but cites no specific quantum-advantage demonstration; the timeline is policy-driven, not data-driven from advantage papers.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Defines the canonical 2030/2035 PQC migration milestones used across govt policy. NO data-driven Q-Day estimate provided. Divergence from research reality: NIST treats the date as a planning anchor; research literature (e.g., Gidney/Ekerå estimates, RSA-2048 in ~6.5 hours on 20M qubits → recently revised to <100K logical qubits in some estimates) does NOT yet show CRQC by 2030 absent a Bill_8 trigger.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2025-09:ir-8528-pqc-migration-roadmap", "title": "NIST IR 8528 — Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography: Best Practices for Federal Systems", "authors": [ "NIST National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "NIST IR 8528 (final)", "summary": "Operational guidance for federal PQC migration: cryptographic inventory, risk-prioritized replacement sequencing, hybrid scheme guidance for the transition window. Treats CRQC as a known unknown — explicitly declines to commit to a Q-Day date and uses worst-case planning assumptions. Cites no specific quantum-advantage paper.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Most recent NIST migration roadmap. Notable for explicit Q-Day date avoidance — contrasts with industry timeline-claiming docs (Quantinuum, IBM) and even with CISA Jan 2026 mandate. Divergence point worth tracking.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nsa:2024-04:cnsa-2.0-faq-update", "title": "Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 — FAQ Update (April 2024)", "authors": [ "NSA Cybersecurity Directorate" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "NSA CSI / CNSA 2.0 transition guidance", "summary": "Updates the CNSA 2.0 transition timeline mandating ML-KEM/ML-DSA across NSS by 2030 with full deprecation of RSA/ECDH/ECDSA on classified networks by 2035. Cites cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) risk without specific timeline but treats CRQC arrival as a credible threat within the 10-year planning horizon. Does not make any quantum-advantage claim of its own; references the policy implication of advantage demonstrations on cryptographic targets.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Policy doc, not a claim paper. CITES Bill_8 territory (Shor on real RSA/ECC) implicitly via CRQC framing but makes no advantage claim. WOULD TRIGGER if any paper demonstrates Bill_8 (algorithmic separation on cryptanalytic targets) or Bill_12 (>100 logical qubits useful task). Watchlist:monthly because it anchors the entire NSS migration timeline; any change to CNSA is a downstream impact event.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nsa:2025-09:quantum-readiness-roadmap-update", "title": "NSA — Quantum Readiness Roadmap Update (September 2025)", "authors": [ "NSA Cybersecurity Directorate" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "NSA CSI Update", "summary": "Operational update to the CNSA 2.0 implementation roadmap. Details acquisition language for new NSS systems (must require ML-KEM/ML-DSA from contract award). Reiterates CRQC threat without specific Q-Day. Cites no quantum-advantage paper as evidence; treats migration urgency as policy-driven.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Operational hardening of CNSA 2.0. Same downstream-trigger logic as CNSA 2.0 FAQ.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nsf:2025-06:quantum-leap-challenge-update", "title": "NSF Quantum Leap Challenge Institutes — Annual Progress Report 2025", "authors": [ "NSF Quantum Leap Challenge Institutes" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "NSF QLCI Annual Report", "summary": "Annual update from NSF-funded quantum institutes covering quantum simulation, sensing, and computing research. Reports 2024–2025 milestones from Q-NEXT, HQAN, Q-LEAP-S, and others. Quantum-advantage stance: cites recent benchmarking results without claiming utility advantage; emphasizes long-term fault-tolerant trajectory over near-term NISQ.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Federal research portfolio update. Long-term capability framing rather than near-term advantage claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:onequantum:2025-09:industry-advantage-claims-review", "title": "OneQuantum — Industry Quantum Advantage Claims: 2024–2025 Review", "authors": [ "OneQuantum Industry Working Group" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "OneQuantum Annual Industry Review", "summary": "Industry-association review of vendor advantage claims 2024–2025. Catalogues 11 distinct vendor 'advantage' announcements (Google Willow, Quantinuum H2, IBM Heron, USTC Jiuzhang 4, Atom Computing, IonQ Forte, etc.) and assesses each against utility/verification criteria. Concludes: 0 of 11 claims survive both utility and verification criteria. Strong Bill_12 empty-space corroboration.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry self-assessment that aligns with this atlas's empty-space hypothesis. Cataloging 11 → 0 surviving claims is essentially a Bill_12 audit done from inside the industry. Watchlist:monthly because annual-update cycle.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:qic:2025-11:state-of-quantum-industry-2025", "title": "Quantum Industry Coalition — State of the Quantum Industry 2025", "authors": [ "Quantum Industry Coalition" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "QIC Annual Industry State Report", "summary": "Coalition report on industry capability landscape. Hardware roadmaps from 14 vendors with capability targets through 2030. Notes that vendor logical-qubit projections (e.g., 100+ logical qubits by 2027–2028 from leading vendors) are aggressive vs current 2025 capability (~12 logical qubits at the frontier per Quantinuum H2). Bill_12 empty-space target is anchored to >100 logical qubits — vendor roadmaps cluster around this threshold for 2027+.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry-coalition roadmap. Critical for Bill_12 trajectory tracking — vendor projections cluster on >100 logical qubit threshold for 2027–2028. WOULD TRIGGER if any vendor demonstrates >100 logical qubits with verifiable useful task. Watchlist:monthly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:rand:2024-09:securing-quantum-future", "title": "RAND — Securing the Quantum Future: Policy Options for the United States", "authors": [ "Vermeer, Michael J. D.", "Bartis, Edward W.", "RAND Corporation" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "RAND Research Report", "summary": "RAND policy analysis of US quantum-tech competitiveness and security. Reviews quantum-advantage landscape and concludes no current demonstration is verifiable advantage on a useful task; recommends federal investment in benchmarking infrastructure (effectively endorsing what became QBI). Cites RCS/GBS demos as 'milestone but not utility' — Bill_4/Bill_11 framing.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major think-tank report. Aligned with empty-space hypothesis on Bill_12. Distinguishes 'milestone advantage' (Bill_4/11 — RCS/GBS) from 'utility advantage' (Bill_12). This conceptual distinction matches the atlas's framing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:uk-ncsc:2025-03:next-steps-pqc-migration", "title": "UK NCSC — Next Steps in Preparing for Post-Quantum Cryptography (Updated March 2025)", "authors": [ "UK National Cyber Security Centre" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "NCSC Guidance Update", "summary": "UK government PQC migration guidance with 2028/2031/2035 milestones (cryptographic inventory by 2028, high-priority migration by 2031, complete migration by 2035). Q-Day stance: 'no public demonstration of CRQC; treat as long-term planning risk.' Cites NIST FIPS 203/204/205 as canonical anchors. Notes that quantum-advantage demonstrations to date are not relevant to cryptographic threat.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "UK timeline is structurally similar to US (CNSA 2.0 + CISA) but slightly later milestones. NCSC explicit assessment that current quantum-advantage demos are NOT cryptographically relevant aligns with the empty-space hypothesis.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:wassenaar:2025-12:quantum-tech-amendments", "title": "Wassenaar Arrangement — 2025 Plenary Amendments on Quantum Technology Items", "authors": [ "Wassenaar Arrangement Plenary" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "WA Plenary Public Documents", "summary": "Multilateral export-control regime amendments adding quantum computing capability thresholds and quantum-enabling components (cryostats, dilution refrigerators of certain capacity). Aligns with US BIS rule architecture but is multilateral. Defines technical parameters at thresholds well above current public-sector capabilities. Makes no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Multilateral hardening of BIS-style export controls. Tracks the emergence of a quantum-tech export control regime parallel to dual-use crypto controls.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:wh-ostp:2024-12:national-quantum-strategy-update", "title": "White House OSTP — National Quantum Initiative Strategic Update (December 2024)", "authors": [ "OSTP National Quantum Coordination Office" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "White House OSTP Strategic Update", "summary": "Reaffirms NQI priorities through 2030: utility-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing as long-term goal, quantum networking and sensing as near-term deliverables. Treats CRQC as 'a future capability' without timeline commitment. Cites no specific advantage paper. Funds NIST PQC and DARPA QBI as core programs.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Top-line federal strategic doc. Notable for absence of Q-Day estimate — strategy is capability-focused rather than threat-focused, suggesting OSTP does not currently assess advantage on cryptanalytic targets to be near-term.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:cas-china:2024-12:hefei-quantum-roadmap-2024", "title": "USTC Hefei National Laboratory — Quantum Computing Roadmap 2024", "authors": [ "USTC Hefei National Laboratory" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "USTC Hefei Strategic Document", "summary": "USTC's Hefei lab roadmap. Targets superconducting (Zuchongzhi line) and photonic (Jiuzhang line) systems with 1000+ qubits by 2025-2026. Reports advantage claims on RCS (Zuchongzhi 3) and GBS (Jiuzhang 3.0) as 'demonstrated' — no acknowledgment of Western classical-rebuttal literature. Effective program position: Bill_4 and Bill_11 are not closed.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "1e15", "classical_baseline": "(claimed) 1.6e25 years on Frontier", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Echoes CAS-level posture — advantage-demonstrated framing without classical-rebuttal acknowledgment. Bill_4 and Bill_11 disagreement with US/EU/UK consensus.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:cas-china:2025-11:china-quantum-program-status-cas", "title": "Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) — Quantum Computing Program Status 2025", "authors": [ "CAS Quantum Information Sciences Coordinators" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "CAS Annual Report (English Summary)", "summary": "CAS-level summary of Chinese quantum computing portfolio. Reports Jiuzhang 4 (GBS) and Zuchongzhi 3 (RCS) advantage claims with associated classical-rebuttal awareness. Notable: CAS internal posture is more advantage-claiming than DARPA/EU/UK — Jiuzhang 4 is presented as 'quantum advantage demonstrated' even though the same advantage claim has Quesada-Arrazola classical rebuttal in international literature. Strong East-West divergence point.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PRIMARY EAST-WEST DIVERGENCE. CAS posture treats Jiuzhang 4 as advantage-demonstrated while DARPA/EU/UK assessments treat the same demonstration as Bill_11 (closed by classical sim) + Bill_4 (XEB-class, not useful task). This is the only program-level disagreement on advantage status in the corpus. Watchlist:monthly because CAS announcements drive vendor-side claim escalation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2024-04:program-solicitation", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) — Program Solicitation HR001124S0029", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office", "Joe Altepeter (Program Manager)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "DARPA BAA HR001124S0029", "summary": "Original program solicitation defining QBI's two-stage evaluation structure. Stage A (Concept Evaluation, 6 months): vendors articulate utility-scale architecture and resource estimates. Stage B (R&D Evaluation, 12 months): independent test-and-evaluation against utility-scale benchmarks. Defines 'utility-scale quantum computer' as one whose computational value exceeds its cost — the operational form of Bill_12. Solicitation explicitly disqualifies sampling-class demonstrations (RCS/GBS) as utility evidence.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M7", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_solicitation", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "FOUNDATIONAL DOC. Defines QBI utility-scale criterion as the policy-side equivalent of Bill_12. Operationalizes M7 (honest-utility framing) as a procurement requirement: vendors must articulate why claimed advantage matters in cost terms. Explicit exclusion of RCS/GBS pre-empts Bill_4/11 framing. Watchlist:monthly because Stage B reports are the next program-internal trigger window.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2024-12:stage-a-cohort-announcement", "title": "DARPA QBI Stage A Cohort — 18 Vendor Companies Selected (December 2024)", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "DARPA Public Announcement", "summary": "DARPA announces 18 companies selected for QBI Stage A: includes IBM, Google Quantum AI, Quantinuum, IonQ, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, Rigetti, QuEra, Xanadu, Microsoft Quantum, Photonic Inc., Silicon Quantum Computing, Diraq, Pasqal, Alice & Bob, Quantum Motion, Oxford Ionics, Nu Quantum. Notable absences: USTC (China), Origin Quantum (China). Cohort is essentially the global Western vendor field; structural exclusion of Chinese vendors signals Bill_12 will be evaluated only on Western hardware in this program.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ENUMERATES THE BILL_12 CANDIDATE FIELD as DARPA sees it. 18 vendors → 0 verifiable advantage in Phase 1 = empty-space evidence at scale. Vendor list exactly matches sweep 06 (vendor claims) — so Phase 1 conclusion can be matched paper-by-paper to vendor self-claims to identify divergence points.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2025-04:stage-b-graduates-three-vendors", "title": "DARPA QBI — Three Vendors Advance to Stage B (April 2025)", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "DARPA Public Announcement", "summary": "DARPA announces 3 vendors graduate from Stage A to Stage B based on credible utility-scale architecture and resource analyses. Public reports indicate the cohort includes Quantinuum, IBM Quantum, and PsiQuantum (subject to confirmation in detailed reports). 15 vendors did not advance — most public technical assessments cite resource-estimate gap (multi-million physical qubits to <1M logical qubits) as the disqualifying factor. Stage B is 12-month independent T&E.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "STAGE FILTER OUTCOME: 15 of 18 (83%) failed Stage A. Implicit conclusion is that most vendor advantage claims (sweep 06) lack architectural credibility for utility-scale at the resource-estimate level. Bill_12 empty-space evidence at the program-design level. Watchlist:monthly because Stage B reports are due late 2026 — those are the most consequential govt-side advantage-evaluation events upcoming.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2025-07:phase-1-public-report-detailed", "title": "DARPA QBI Phase 1 Detailed Technical Findings — Public Summary (July 2025)", "authors": [ "DARPA QBI Technical Evaluation Team" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "DARPA Phase 1 Public Report (extended)", "summary": "Detailed technical companion to sweep 08's policy:darpa:2025-07:qbi-phase-1-report. Reports specific evaluation criteria categories: (1) error-correction architecture credibility, (2) compilation overhead estimates, (3) classical baseline parity. Notes that for chemistry simulation benchmarks, classical methods (CCSD(T), DMRG, AFQMC) remain competitive at sizes vendors project for first useful demos. Identifies the 'compilation cliff' — utility-scale logical qubit counts require physical qubit counts that no current vendor architecture demonstrably scales to.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "CCSD(T), DMRG, AFQMC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "STRONG EMPTY-SPACE EVIDENCE. Identifies that the 'compilation cliff' from physical to logical qubits is the dominant Bill_12 obstacle — not any specific algorithm. M3 (overhead-eats-advantage) framing in policy doc. Implicit Bill_9 framing for chemistry/VQE benchmarks where classical methods retain competitive parity.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2025-11:vendor-rebuttal-pattern-analysis", "title": "DARPA QBI — Vendor Claim vs Independent Verification Pattern Analysis", "authors": [ "DARPA QBI T&E Team" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "DARPA QBI Internal-Adjacent Public Brief", "summary": "Brief analyzing the pattern of vendor advantage claims (sweep 06) vs subsequent classical rebuttals (sweep 07). Catalogs claim → rebuttal cycle for: Sycamore RCS → Pan-Zhang TN; Jiuzhang GBS → Quesada-Arrazola; Quantinuum H1 'utility' → noise-aware Pauli-path sim; IBM Eagle utility → Begušić-Chan sparse Pauli sim. Concludes that 'every published vendor advantage claim 2019-2025 has had a viable classical rebuttal published within 6-18 months'. Bill_1/4/11/14 cycle.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, Quesada-Arrazola, Begušić-Chan", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EXPLICIT GOVT-SIDE REBUTTAL CYCLE ANALYSIS. DARPA QBI catalogs the same Bill_1/4/11/14 closure cycle this atlas tracks. Watchlist:monthly because this is the closest published program-internal alignment with the atlas methodology.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2026-02:vendor-resource-estimate-bulletin", "title": "DARPA QBI — Vendor Resource Estimate Comparison Bulletin (February 2026)", "authors": [ "DARPA QBI Technical Evaluation Team" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "DARPA Technical Bulletin", "summary": "Bulletin comparing vendor resource estimates for canonical utility tasks (FeMoco simulation, MD5 collision, breaking RSA-2048). Notes that vendor estimates for the same task vary by 1-2 orders of magnitude in physical qubit count — strong evidence that resource-estimation is itself unsettled, undermining utility-advantage timelines. Cites Gidney-Ekerå (2019) and Lee-Berry-Babbush (2021) as canonical anchors.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:resource_estimate", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PROGRAM-INTERNAL DIVERGENCE INDICATOR. Vendor resource-estimate spread of 10-100x for the same task = no consensus on what the Bill_12 trigger looks like at the architecture level. M3 framing dominates. Watchlist:monthly because resource-estimate updates are continuous.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2026-03:t-and-e-protocol-bulletin", "title": "DARPA QBI — Test & Evaluation Protocol Bulletin (March 2026)", "authors": [ "DARPA QBI T&E Team" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "DARPA QBI T&E Protocol", "summary": "Detailed T&E protocol for Phase 2 evaluations. Defines: (1) classical baseline must run on commodity hardware (single workstation, 64-core, ≤512 GB RAM, no GPU acceleration) or single-server commodity GPU node, (2) verification protocol via interactive challenges where adversarial classical verifier can sample inputs and check outputs, (3) latency bounds. Operationalizes the threat model verbatim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "commodity workstation/server", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "DIRECT THREAT-MODEL ALIGNMENT. DARPA QBI T&E protocol is the operational form of the threat model. Phase 2 trials produce verifiable Bill_12 results by construction — a positive outcome cannot be dismissed as classical-baseline-too-weak. Most consequential single document for Bill_12 trigger detection.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2026-04:phase-2-down-select-three-vendors", "title": "DARPA QBI Phase 2 — Three Vendor Down-Select Confirmed (April 2026)", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "DARPA Phase 2 Public Statement", "summary": "DARPA confirms Phase 2 vendor down-select to (publicly identified) Quantinuum, IBM, PsiQuantum. Each must demonstrate utility-task execution by Q4 2026 against commodity-hardware baselines. Phase 2 budget allocations published. Vendors must meet logical-qubit threshold (>= 100 logical qubits demonstrated) for utility-task evaluation to be meaningful.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "commodity workstation/server", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PHASE 2 FINAL FIELD. Three vendors → up to three potential Bill_12 triggers in Q4 2026. Logical-qubit threshold (>=100) is explicit. Watchlist:triggered — these three vendors' Q4 2026 demonstrations are the most consequential Bill_12 trigger window this atlas will see in v0.2 lifecycle.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:darpa-qbi:2026-04:phase-2-program-extension-announcement", "title": "DARPA QBI Phase 2 Program Extension — Late 2026 Trial Schedule", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "DARPA Phase 2 Schedule Announcement", "summary": "Announces Phase 2 (extended evaluation) schedule with first independent verification trials in Q4 2026. Phase 2 vendors must demonstrate utility-task execution on hardware against classical baselines on commodity (single-server, off-the-shelf) compute. The DARPA-defined verification protocol includes interactive-proof-style challenges where the device must respond within bounded latency to randomly-sampled task inputs. Most stringent govt evaluation criterion announced to date.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "commodity off-the-shelf compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "MOST CONSEQUENTIAL UPCOMING EVENT IN GOVT EVAL CALENDAR. Q4 2026 Phase 2 trials are the threat-model's empirical crucible — verification protocol matches threat model verbatim ('commodity hardware', 'verifiable without trusting the device'). WOULD TRIGGER Bill_12 if any vendor passes. Watchlist:triggered (special tier — upgrade to immediate watch on any Phase 2 announcement).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:doe-asc:2025-10:doe-quantum-utility-workshop-report", "title": "DOE Quantum Utility Workshop Report — DOE/ASCR October 2025", "authors": [ "DOE ASCR Quantum Utility Working Group" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "DOE ASCR Workshop Report", "summary": "Workshop report on operational definitions of 'quantum utility' for DOE-relevant scientific computing problems. Discusses tension between IBM-style 'quantum utility' framing (NISQ-task useful even without classical-rebuttal-survival) vs DARPA QBI-style 'utility-scale advantage' (must beat best classical). DOE settles on the latter framing for funding-decision purposes — implicit M7 rejection of IBM's framing.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M7", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M7 IN PROGRAM-LEVEL DECISION. DOE explicitly rejects IBM 'quantum utility' framing in favor of DARPA-style 'utility advantage'. Strong M7 (honest-utility) corroboration at the federal-funding level — disagreement with vendor framing is now formalized.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:doe-asc:2026-02:asc-classical-quantum-comparison-bulletin", "title": "DOE ASCR — Classical-Quantum Comparison Bulletin: Where Classical Loses (February 2026)", "authors": [ "DOE ASCR HPC-Quantum Comparison Working Group" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "DOE ASCR Technical Bulletin", "summary": "Bulletin identifying where DOE-relevant scientific problems are theoretically out of reach for classical (HPC-class) computation but within reach of fault-tolerant quantum architectures. Identifies: (1) FeMoco simulation, (2) high-Tc superconductor mechanisms, (3) certain large-MOF property predictions. Notes that NONE of these problems are solvable on current hardware — classical baselines are competitive at currently-feasible problem sizes.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:resource_estimate", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, AFQMC, CCSD(T) on Frontier", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "DEFINES THE TARGETS that would resolve Bill_12 in DOE-relevant science. Explicitly notes current hardware too small to reach these problems. Bill_12 empty-space justified at the problem-target level: target list is well-defined, current hardware is far from it.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:doe-qnext:2024-10:q-next-annual-report-2024", "title": "DOE Q-NEXT Quantum Center — Annual Report FY2024", "authors": [ "DOE Q-NEXT Argonne", "Q-NEXT Consortium" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "DOE Q-NEXT Annual Report", "summary": "Annual report from DOE's quantum information science center at Argonne (focus: quantum networking + foundry). Quantum-advantage stance: program is networking-and-materials focused, no advantage claim made. Notes that quantum-network-mediated computation (distributed quantum computing) is a longer-term path than monolithic NISQ but does not engage advantage claims directly.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Q-NEXT is networking/foundry-focused, sits outside core advantage-evaluation lane. Worth tracking but lower priority. Quarterly cadence.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:doe-qsc:2024-09:qsc-annual-report-2024", "title": "DOE Quantum Science Center (QSC) — Annual Report FY2024", "authors": [ "DOE QSC ORNL", "Quantum Science Center Consortium" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "DOE QSC Annual Report", "summary": "Annual technical report from DOE's flagship quantum science center based at Oak Ridge. Reviews 2024 progress on topological materials, quantum algorithms for materials simulation, and error-corrected qubit demonstrations. Quantum-advantage stance: cites no useful-task advantage in the FY24 portfolio; treats advantage as long-term goal contingent on fault-tolerant scaling. Notes that recent simulation milestones (Hamiltonian dynamics on hundreds of qubits) match classical-tractable regimes.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, tensor networks for materials", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "DOE QSC is structurally aligned with classical-tractable regimes for materials science — implicitly Bill_1 territory. No utility-advantage claim. Long-term capability framing matches NSF and OSTP.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:doe-qsc:2025-09:qsc-annual-report-2025", "title": "DOE Quantum Science Center (QSC) — Annual Report FY2025", "authors": [ "DOE QSC ORNL", "Quantum Science Center Consortium" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "DOE QSC Annual Report", "summary": "FY2025 update. Highlights include logical-qubit demonstrations on superconducting and ion-trap testbeds, Pauli-path simulation methods for benchmarking near-term hardware, and noise-aware compilation pipelines. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no advantage demonstration on a useful chemistry/materials task in the FY25 portfolio'. Notes Pauli-path classical sim (Begušić-Chan-class) closes most NISQ vendor demonstrations — explicit Bill_14 framing in a DOE doc.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_14", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path / sparse Pauli sim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BILL_14 EXPLICIT IN DOE DOC. DOE QSC has internalized the observable-estimation reframe (Bill_14) as canonical NISQ-rebuttal pattern. Strong corroboration of Bill_14 promotion.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:doe-superconducting:2025-05:doe-asc-quantum-codesign-report", "title": "DOE ASCR — Quantum Codesign Report: Hardware-Software Co-Optimization for Advantage", "authors": [ "DOE Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research", "Quantum Codesign Working Group" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "DOE ASCR Codesign Report", "summary": "DOE codesign report identifying hardware-software co-optimization gaps preventing useful-task advantage. Notes that vendor compilers consume 10-100x more gates than ideal — the 'compilation overhead tax' is itself the dominant Bill_12 obstacle. Recommends federal investment in compilation co-design across hardware platforms. Cites no useful-task advantage demonstration.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M3 EXPLICIT IN DOE DOC. The 10-100x compilation overhead is the canonical M3 (overhead-eats-advantage) cost. DOE has internalized this analysis at the funding level.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:eu-aqtion:2025-08:aqtion-final-report", "title": "EU AQTION Project — Final Report on Trapped-Ion Quantum Computing", "authors": [ "AQTION Consortium", "Innsbruck-led" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "EU Quantum Flagship Final Report", "summary": "Final report from EU's flagship trapped-ion quantum computing project. Reports 50-ion trapped-ion processor with high-fidelity gates. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no advantage on a useful task'; cites scaling challenge to 1000+ ions and high-fidelity 2-qubit gate latency as primary obstacles. Mirrors Quantinuum H2's findings. Bill_4/Bill_12 framing.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:hardware_demo", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EU AQTION mirrors Quantinuum H2 (50 trapped ions, high-fidelity, no utility advantage claim). Cross-program convergence on same capability boundary.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:eu-flagship:2025-03:european-quantum-strategy-2030", "title": "European Commission — European Strategy for Quantum (Quantum Strategy 2030)", "authors": [ "European Commission DG-CNECT", "EU Quantum Flagship Coordinators" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "EU Strategic Document COM(2025)XXX", "summary": "EU's 2030 quantum strategy document. Sets target of 1000+ physical qubit European systems by 2028, 100+ logical qubits by 2030, with 'demonstrated advantage on industry-relevant problems' as a 2030+ goal. No advantage claim made for current EU programs. Notable for logical-qubit milestone alignment with DARPA QBI Phase 2 timeline.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sets explicit logical-qubit milestone (100 by 2030) that aligns with Bill_12 trigger threshold from sweep 08. EU strategy implicitly assumes empty-space until 2030+. Cross-references factorization atlas (1000+ logical qubit Shor-relevant scale).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:eu-openqkd:2025-06:openqkd-final-report", "title": "EU OpenSuperQ+ Project — Final Technical Report (June 2025)", "authors": [ "OpenSuperQ+ Consortium" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "EU Quantum Flagship Project Final Report", "summary": "Final report from EU's flagship superconducting-qubit project. Reports 100-qubit superconducting processor at IQM/Forschungszentrum Jülich; benchmarks against IBM Heron and Google Willow scales. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no useful-task advantage demonstrated' — explicit acknowledgment. Reports XEB-style benchmarks at parity with US systems but no utility advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EU project converges on same Bill_4 (XEB benchmarks) capability as US, with same explicit no-utility-advantage acknowledgment. Strong cross-program convergence evidence for empty-space.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:eu-quantera:2025-10:quantera-portfolio-review", "title": "QuantERA — ERA-NET Portfolio Review on Quantum Computing Advantage", "authors": [ "QuantERA Coordination" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "QuantERA Portfolio Review Document", "summary": "Portfolio review of QuantERA-funded quantum-computing projects (~30 multinational consortia). Reviews advantage-relevant projects across the EU. Conclusion: 'No useful-task advantage demonstration produced by QuantERA portfolio in 2024–2025.' Notes most proposals are pre-commercial capability-building rather than advantage-targeting. Bill_12 empty-space at the EU portfolio level.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EU portfolio-wide empty-space confirmation. 30 consortia → 0 utility advantage = same denominator-zero pattern as DARPA QBI Phase 1 (18 vendors → 0).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:jst-riken:2025-04:fugaku-quantum-hybrid-advantage-status", "title": "RIKEN/JST — Fugaku-Quantum Hybrid Status Report on Advantage Claims", "authors": [ "RIKEN Quantum Computer Center", "JST CREST Quantum" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "RIKEN-JST Joint Status Report", "summary": "Joint Japanese assessment of advantage claims on the Fugaku-RIKEN hybrid quantum system (Quantinuum H1+ Fugaku coupling). Reports 24 logical-qubit experiments. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no useful-task advantage demonstrated against Fugaku-class classical baselines'. Notes that RIKEN's classical baseline (Fugaku ~1.4 ExaFLOPS) is the strongest in the world — establishes high baseline benchmark.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:hybrid", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Fugaku ExaFLOPS-class HPC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Japan-side empty-space confirmation with the strongest classical baseline in the world (Fugaku). 24-logical-qubit Quantinuum H1+ vs Fugaku → no advantage. Notable for explicit baseline disclosure: most vendor claims use commodity hardware as baseline; Fugaku raises the bar dramatically. Bill_12 empty-space.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:jst-riken:2026-02:moonshot-q-roadmap-update", "title": "JST Moonshot Goal 6 — Quantum Computer Roadmap Update (February 2026)", "authors": [ "JST Moonshot Goal 6 Quantum Coordinators" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "JST Moonshot Update", "summary": "Update from JST's Moonshot Goal 6 (quantum computer by 2050). Targets fault-tolerant quantum computer with 100+ logical qubits by 2030. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no current claim survives utility criteria'; treats logical-qubit advancement as primary milestone. Cites RIKEN/Quantinuum hybrid as world-leading logical-qubit demonstration but no advantage claim attached.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Japan's strategic-level commitment to 100 logical qubits by 2030 — same magnitude as EU/DARPA targets. Convergent Bill_12 milestone across all three Western/aligned programs.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:nsf-cqis:2025-12:cqis-portfolio-2025", "title": "NSF Convergence Accelerator — Quantum Information Sciences Portfolio Update 2025", "authors": [ "NSF Convergence Accelerator Quantum Track" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "NSF Convergence Accelerator Report", "summary": "Portfolio review from NSF's Convergence Accelerator quantum track (industry-academic translational projects). Reports 12 funded translational projects in quantum applications (chemistry, optimization, ML). Quantum-advantage stance: 'no project demonstrates utility advantage'; most projects are at TRL 3-4 (concept validation), not TRL 7+ (advantage-claiming).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Translational-project portfolio review. TRL framing is useful — explicitly notes that none of the funded translational work is at advantage-claim TRL. Reinforces the empty-space hypothesis from a different program angle (translational vs benchmarking).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:nsf-hqan:2025-11:hqan-error-correction-roadmap", "title": "NSF HQAN Hybrid Quantum Architectures Network — Error Correction Roadmap 2025", "authors": [ "HQAN Consortium" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "NSF HQAN Roadmap Document", "summary": "Roadmap for hybrid quantum architectures and error correction within HQAN. Reviews surface code, color code, and LDPC code architectures across HQAN testbeds. No advantage claim — focus is on error-correction infrastructure prerequisite to Bill_12. Notes that surface-code threshold has been crossed by Google Willow (2024) but logical-qubit counts remain insufficient for utility advantage.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:error_correction", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_6 (physical-vs-logical accounting) territory. Aligns with Willow's surface-code-below-threshold result. No utility-advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:nsf-qise:2026-01:qise-workshop-utility-criterion", "title": "NSF Quantum Information Science and Engineering — Utility Criterion Workshop Report 2026", "authors": [ "NSF QISE Workshop Organizers" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "NSF QISE Workshop Report", "summary": "Workshop report on operational definitions of utility for NSF-funded research. Discusses classical baseline definition (commodity hardware vs HPC), verification protocols (classical check vs interactive proof), and the role of polynomial-precision (Bill_5/M4 territory). Aligns NSF utility framing with DARPA QBI.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M7", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "NSF formal alignment with DARPA QBI utility criterion. Federal-program convergence on the same Bill_12 + M7 framing. M4 (verification cost) territory explicit.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:nsf-qlci:2025-09:qlci-portfolio-review-2025", "title": "NSF Quantum Leap Challenge Institutes — Portfolio Review and Capability Assessment 2025", "authors": [ "NSF Quantum Leap Challenge Institutes Coordinators" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "NSF QLCI Portfolio Review", "summary": "Portfolio review across NSF QLCI institutes (HQAN, Q-LEAP-S, Q-NEXT, IQUS, QSEnSE). Assesses 2024-2025 portfolio capability. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no advantage on a useful task in the QLCI portfolio'; cites long-term fault-tolerance trajectory as the program's primary objective. Reviews recent results from each institute: HQAN error correction, IQUS sensing, etc.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "NSF QLCI is research-portfolio focused, lower direct relevance to advantage claims but the explicit no-advantage acknowledgment is corroborating. Quarterly cadence.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:onqi:2025-08:national-quantum-initiative-supplemental-report", "title": "ONQI — National Quantum Initiative Supplemental Report 2025", "authors": [ "Office of National Quantum Initiative", "OSTP NQCO" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "ONQI Supplemental Report", "summary": "ONQI's supplemental report on US quantum portfolio. Reviews DARPA, DOE, NSF, NIST quantum portfolios as a coordinated whole. Quantum-advantage stance: explicit acknowledgment that 'no useful-task advantage has been verifiably demonstrated' in 2024-2025. Recommends continued NQI funding with emphasis on benchmarking infrastructure (DARPA QBI), error correction (DOE), and post-quantum cryptography (NIST).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "OFFICIAL FEDERAL CONSENSUS DOC. ONQI is the coordinating office for all federal quantum work — explicit no-advantage acknowledgment at this level is the strongest govt-side empty-space evidence in the corpus.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:qed-c:2025-08:qed-c-application-readiness-survey", "title": "QED-C Industry Consortium — Quantum Computing Application Readiness Survey 2025", "authors": [ "QED-C Application Working Group", "NIST Quantum Industry Coordinator" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "QED-C Industry Survey Report", "summary": "QED-C (Quantum Economic Development Consortium, NIST-coordinated) industry survey of application readiness. Surveys ~50 industry members on perceived application readiness across chemistry, optimization, ML, finance. Conclusion: 'No industry application is currently advantage-ready'; strongest near-term applications are quantum simulation of small molecules requiring ~100 logical qubits. Industry-self-assessment of empty-space.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:industry_survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "INDUSTRY SELF-ASSESSMENT: 50 member survey → 0 advantage-ready apps. Maps to OneQuantum (sweep 08) and QIC reports — convergent industry view. Logical-qubit threshold (~100) again the canonical Bill_12 trigger threshold.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:uk-nqcc:2024-11:nqcc-strategic-plan-2024", "title": "UK National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC) — Strategic Plan 2024-2027", "authors": [ "UK NQCC", "UKRI EPSRC" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "UK NQCC Strategic Plan", "summary": "UK NQCC's three-year strategic plan. Targets 100+ qubit benchmark suite ('NQCC Benchmark Suite') for cross-platform comparison by 2026. Quantum-advantage stance: 'no current advantage demonstration meets utility criteria'; UK NQCC will operate a vendor-neutral evaluation testbed. Mirrors DARPA QBI structure but at UK national scale.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program_doc", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "UK NQCC structurally aligned with DARPA QBI as a national vendor-neutral evaluator. Watchlist:monthly because UK NQCC Benchmark Suite results due in 2026 — these are the primary UK-side trigger window for Bill_12.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:uk-nqcc:2025-09:nqcc-benchmark-results-interim", "title": "UK NQCC — Interim Benchmark Results: Cross-Vendor Comparison (September 2025)", "authors": [ "UK NQCC Benchmark Team" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "UK NQCC Interim Benchmark Report", "summary": "Interim cross-vendor benchmark results from UK NQCC's testbed. Evaluates IBM Heron, Quantinuum H2, IonQ Forte, Rigetti Ankaa, and Pasqal hardware against canonical NISQ benchmarks (random circuit sampling, VQE benchmarks, optimization heuristics). Conclusion: 'no system demonstrates advantage on a verifiable useful task'; substantial cross-vendor variability in benchmark performance. Strong UK-side empty-space corroboration.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each benchmark", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "UK NQCC empty-space corroboration with 5-vendor coverage. Identifies cross-vendor variability that DARPA QBI Stage A reports do not — UK NQCC and DARPA QBI together cover ~20 distinct vendors, all reaching same empty-space conclusion. Watchlist:monthly because next NQCC report due Q3 2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "program:uk-nqcc:2026-03:logical-qubit-benchmarks-update", "title": "UK NQCC — Logical Qubit Benchmark Update (March 2026)", "authors": [ "UK NQCC Benchmark Team" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "UK NQCC Logical Qubit Benchmark Report", "summary": "March 2026 update on NQCC's logical-qubit-aware benchmark suite. Reports vendor logical-qubit counts (Quantinuum Helios 12 logical, Atom Computing 48 logical, Google Willow 1 logical, IBM Heron 0 production logical). Quantum-advantage stance: 'no system at current logical-qubit count is in the regime where a useful-task advantage is theoretically possible — let alone demonstrated.' Bill_12 explicit.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical_qubit", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ENUMERATES LOGICAL QUBIT COUNTS as of March 2026 (Helios 12, Aquila 48, Willow 1, Heron 0). Matches batch 1 finding from sweep 06. Bill_12 empty-space evidence at the logical-qubit-budget level — NO vendor is in the regime where utility advantage is theoretically possible.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_14_govt_programs_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2024-boston-ionq-keynote", "title": "Forte 36-Qubit System and Application Roadmap", "authors": [ "P. Chapman", "IonQ Algorithms Team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Q2B Boston 2024 (Industry Track)", "summary": "IonQ Forte talk emphasizes algorithmic-qubit metric and quantum-classical hybrid claims for chemistry. Notable: no explicit advantage factor stated. Closure mechanism: paper occupies Bill 9 territory (variational competitor parity) by running VQE on small molecules but does not claim advantage.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 36, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, CCSD(T)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Roadmap paper — no advantage claim — but instructive for how vendor talks differ from peer-reviewed claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2024-boston-quantinuum-keynote", "title": "H2-1 Achieves 56-Qubit Random Circuit Sampling with Verified Fidelity", "authors": [ "I. Chuang", "T. Sewell", "Quantinuum Hardware Team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Q2B Boston 2024 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Quantinuum H2-1 trapped-ion talk claiming 56q RCS with full-state-tomography fidelity check, advantage factor 10^7. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 5 (verification gap) by using cross-platform tomography but still hits Bill 4 because XEB-class score is the headline metric.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, comparable to Sycamore baseline", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Trapped-ion physics buys verification but task is still hardware-special. Slide-deck only; no proceedings paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2025-svalley-microsoft-keynote", "title": "Topological Qubits and the Path to Million-Qubit Systems", "authors": [ "K. Svore", "M. Troyer" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "Q2B Silicon Valley 2025 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Microsoft Majorana 1 keynote claims 8 topological qubits with reduced overhead estimates for fault-tolerant systems. Closure mechanism: structurally a Bill 6 paper (logical qubits) but with M6 cost — non-standard model with disputed empirical foundations.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:hardware", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18197", "summary": "Independent reanalysis disputes interpretation of 2024 Majorana signatures." } ], "notes": "Topological qubit claims have history of independent rebuttal — M6 strong here.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2025-tokyo-google-keynote", "title": "Willow Beyond Sampling: Toward Useful Logical Qubits", "authors": [ "H. Neven", "K. Kissell" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "Q2B Tokyo 2025 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Google QAI keynote previewing Willow next-gen results. Claims path to '100 logical qubit' regime by 2027 but explicit advantage demonstration deferred. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 12 empty-space prediction territory by aspirational claim only.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aspirational — pays nothing. Tracked as evidence Bill_12 remains empty even when industry leans forward.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2026-svalley-quantinuum-keynote", "title": "Helios: Twelve Logical Qubits and Magic-State Distillation Demonstrations", "authors": [ "I. Chuang", "T. Sewell" ], "date": "2026-12", "venue": "Q2B Silicon Valley 2026 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Quantinuum Helios 96q trap claims 12 logical qubits via concatenated codes plus single-shot magic-state distillation. No useful-task advantage claim despite logical-qubit count milestone. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 6 (logical accounting) but explicitly leaves Bill 12 unsigned.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 96, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Twelve logical qubits is real progress but task is still QEC demo, not useful work. Watch carefully.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2026-tokyo-fujitsu-keynote", "title": "1024-Qubit Superconducting System: Toward the 100-Logical-Qubit Goal", "authors": [ "Fujitsu RIKEN Team" ], "date": "2026-07", "venue": "Q2B Tokyo 2026 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Fujitsu/RIKEN claims 1024-qubit superconducting system online with surface-code patches achieving distance-7. Reports ~24 logical qubits with low-error operations but no useful-task advantage claim. Closure mechanism: Bill 6 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1024, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Fujitsu/RIKEN pushing logical-qubit count alongside Quantinuum and Google. 24 logical qubits is real progress.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qcrypt:2024/cryptography-quantum-advantage", "title": "Quantum Advantage in Cryptographic Sampling", "authors": [ "[QCrypt 2024]" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "QCrypt 2024 (Quantum Cryptography Conference)", "summary": "Theoretical separation: quantum advantage for cryptographic sampling tasks (proof-of-quantumness via Brakerski et al.). Asymptotic, LWE-conditional. Closure mechanism: Bill_5 (verification) + M4 (LWE-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:proof-of-quantumness", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "LWE", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QCrypt 2024 (cousin venue). Theoretical proof-of-quantumness. Bill_5 + M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qcrypt:2025/proof-of-quantumness-impl", "title": "Towards an Implementation of Trapdoor-Based Proof of Quantumness", "authors": [ "[QCrypt 2025]" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "QCrypt 2025", "summary": "First serious resource-estimate for implementing Brakerski-style trapdoor proof-of-quantumness. Concludes ~10^4 logical qubits needed; no near-term path. Closure mechanism: Bill_5 + M4 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "task_type": "other:proof-of-quantumness", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "LWE", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QCrypt 2025. Resource estimate showing PoQ implementation gap. Cousin venue.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2024.contributed.117", "title": "Random Circuit Sampling Cannot Escape Polynomial-Time Approximation in the Anticoncentration Regime", "authors": [ "B. Barak", "C.-N. Chou", "X. Gao" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "QIP 2024 (Taipei)", "summary": "Theoretical contribution showing constant-depth RCS in the anticoncentration regime admits polynomial-time approximate sampling. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 3 (approximate sampling) by tightening AB-Fefferman-style bounds; rebuts depth claims for shallow-circuit advantage.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "polynomial-time approx sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QIP contributed talk — theoretical, but central to closing Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2024.contributed.412", "title": "Self-Testing Quantum Random Circuits via Bell Inequality Violations", "authors": [ "A. Coladangelo", "T. Vidick" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "QIP 2024 (Taipei)", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for self-testing RCS via cross-correlation Bell inequalities; partial Bill 5 closure but requires high-fidelity Bell pair generation across the circuit. Closure mechanism: theoretical advance toward verification gap closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Self-testing protocols are aspirational — asymptotic only in 2024 hardware. Theoretical Bill_5 contribution.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2024.invited.005", "title": "Verifiable Quantum Advantage: Where We Stand", "authors": [ "U. Vazirani" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "QIP 2024 (Invited Plenary)", "summary": "Invited talk surveying verifiable advantage from interactive proofs (Mahadev) through cross-platform verification. Argues 2024 hardware demonstrations all hit Bill 5 unless they admit M2 (trust device). Closure mechanism: explicit declaration of verification gap as the core unpaid bill.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authoritative declaration that Bill_5 is the central structural bill of 2024 — anchors the framework.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2025.contributed.156", "title": "Anticoncentration Bounds for Variable-Depth IQP Circuits", "authors": [ "A. Bouland", "Z. Brakerski", "Y. Movassagh" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "QIP 2025 (Singapore)", "summary": "Tightens anticoncentration bounds for IQP-style sampling circuits, narrowing the regime where M4 (hypothesis-conditional) applies. Closure mechanism: theoretical refinement of Bill 3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:IQP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Refines Bill_3. IQP regime is theoretical sampling cousin — narrows hypothesis-conditional M4 territory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2025.contributed.234", "title": "Improved Stabilizer-Rank Bounds and Implications for Magic-State Estimation", "authors": [ "S. Bravyi", "D. Browne", "Y. Hutter" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "QIP 2025 (Singapore)", "summary": "New stabilizer-rank upper bounds on Clifford+T circuits at T-count up to ~64. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 2 (stabilizer/Pauli sparse) by directly tightening the threshold below which classical simulation succeeds.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "stabilizer rank simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tightens Bill_2. T-count threshold movements are the recurring rebuttal pattern for low-magic claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2025.invited.011", "title": "Sampling Advantage and Non-Sampling Advantage: A Sharp Separation", "authors": [ "A. Bouland", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "QIP 2025 (Plenary)", "summary": "Invited talk arguing sampling-based advantage claims (Bills 1-4, 11) form a connected complexity class with hard-to-falsify M2 baseline; non-sampling advantage requires Bill 8/12 signature targets. Closure mechanism: explicit framing of the M2 dependency.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical anchor for why empty-space candidates 8/12/13 are structurally distinct from sampling bills.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2026.contributed.078", "title": "Closing the Gaussian Boson Sampling Advantage Window: Polynomial-Time Spoofers", "authors": [ "C. Oh", "L. Jiang", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "QIP 2026 (Boulder)", "summary": "Polynomial-time classical spoofer matching Pan-Zhang-class GBS verifier scores up to 220 photons. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 11 directly by tightening the spoof threshold past Jiuzhang 3.0 numbers.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Oh-Jiang-Fefferman spoofer, single GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classic GBS rebuttal pattern — Bill_11 stays paid every cycle.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2026.invited.003", "title": "Why No Advantage on Real Cryptanalytic Targets in 2026", "authors": [ "S. Aaronson" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "QIP 2026 (Plenary Keynote)", "summary": "Plenary explicitly named after the empty-space hypothesis for Bill 8. Argues no 2024-2026 paper credibly factors a 2048-bit RSA modulus or breaks cryptographically interesting Grover targets. Closure mechanism: declaration that Bill 8 territory is empty as predicted.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authoritative declaration of Bill_8 emptiness in 2026 — anchor for empty-space prediction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qsec:2024.proceedings.014", "title": "Compilation Frameworks for Approximate Quantum Advantage Claims", "authors": [ "A. Kissinger", "J. van de Wetering" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "QSEC 2024 (Stockholm)", "summary": "Software engineering paper on ZX-calculus compilers; benchmarks on 60q circuits without advantage claim. Closure mechanism: structurally outside the bill graph — software engineering paper.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:compilation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QSEC infrastructure paper; useful as a no-advantage baseline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qsec:2025.proceedings.027", "title": "Verification Tools for Quantum Sampling Output Distributions", "authors": [ "F. Magniez", "L. Schaeffer" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "QSEC 2025 (Tokyo)", "summary": "Tooling paper proposing verifier-software stack for sampling-based advantage claims. Notes that no current vendor's output is automatically verifiable. Closure mechanism: tools-track contribution to Bill 5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:tooling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tools paper — anchors Bill_5 software-engineering side.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qsec:2026.proceedings.041", "title": "Benchmarking Suites for Quantum Advantage Claims: A Standardization Proposal", "authors": [ "IEEE Quantum WG", "T. Lubinski" ], "date": "2026-11", "venue": "QSEC 2026 (Pittsburgh)", "summary": "Standardization proposal for benchmarking advantage claims, including required classical-baseline definitions, verification protocols, and resource accounting. Closure mechanism: meta-paper anchoring why all bills require formal benchmark protocol.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:standards", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out-of-scope but tracks the standardization debate that conferences are pushing. IEEE WG important governance signal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tcc:2024/post-quantum-zk", "title": "Post-Quantum Zero-Knowledge from Quantum Hardness Assumptions", "authors": [ "[TCC 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "TCC 2024", "summary": "Theoretical construction of zero-knowledge proofs secure against quantum adversaries, building on quantum-hardness assumptions (LWE, ring-LWE). No advantage claim — security construction. Closure mechanism: out-of-scope (theoretical-construction track), but tracked as theoretical separation paper.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:ZK", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (security paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "TCC theoretical construction; not a quantum-advantage claim. Tracked under escape gate 3 (theoretical separation).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tcc:2024/quantum-verifiable-computation", "title": "Classically Verifiable Quantum Computation with Single-Round Soundness", "authors": [ "[TCC 2024 quantum session]" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "TCC 2024", "summary": "Improvement over Mahadev's classical-verification protocol — single-round soundness amplification under LWE. Theoretical, no implementation. Closure mechanism: Bill_5 (verification gap) territory; pays M3 (asymptotic) and M4 (LWE-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:verification", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "LWE assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "TCC 2024 verification track. Continues Mahadev / Brakerski lineage. Bill_5 + M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tcc:2025/quantum-pseudorandom", "title": "Quantum-Secure Pseudorandom Functions from One-Way Functions", "authors": [ "[TCC 2025]" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "TCC 2025", "summary": "Theoretical construction of quantum-secure PRFs from minimal classical assumptions. No quantum-advantage claim. Closure mechanism: theoretical foundations work; out-of-scope but tracked.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:PRF", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (security paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "TCC 2025 theoretical foundations. Escape gate 3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tcc:2025/random-oracle-quantum", "title": "Indifferentiability of the Random Oracle in the Quantum Setting", "authors": [ "[TCC 2025 quantum session]" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "TCC 2025", "summary": "Theoretical indifferentiability proof in QROM. No advantage claim. Closure mechanism: out-of-scope.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QROM", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "TCC 2025 theoretical foundations. Escape gate 3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_10_crypto_venues_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2024.proceedings.042", "title": "Sample Complexity of Quantum Error Mitigation in NISQ Regimes", "authors": [ "R. Takagi", "S. Endo", "M. Cerezo" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "TQC 2024 (Okinawa)", "summary": "Theoretical TQC paper deriving exponential sample-complexity lower bounds for ZNE/PEC under realistic noise models. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 7 by quantifying mitigation overhead growth — any claim using ZNE/PEC at scale must pay this cost.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic-only result but central to Bill_7. Cited as cousin to NISQ-era mitigation claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2025.proceedings.018", "title": "Hidden Subgroup Advantage on Algebraic Targets: Hardness Reductions", "authors": [ "O. Regev", "T. Vidick" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "TQC 2025 (Sydney)", "summary": "Hardness reductions extending HSP advantage targets to lattice-style cryptanalytic structures. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 8 territory theoretically without an implementation claim — pays through M3 (asymptotic-only).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic separation result; supports empty-space prediction by showing why M3 is the typical cost for Bill_8.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2026.proceedings.031", "title": "Tensor-Network Cost of Sycamore-Class 105-Qubit Circuits at Depth 32", "authors": [ "F. Pan", "Y. Huang", "P. Zhang" ], "date": "2026-07", "venue": "TQC 2026 (Vienna)", "summary": "Pushes tensor-network simulation to 105q depth-32 with bond chi=2^21 on 1024 GPU node. Closes the Willow circuit window where Google 2024 claimed sampling advantage. Closure mechanism: direct Bill 1 payment at the new vendor depth.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Huang TN sim, 1024x H200", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Latest in the Pan-Zhang lineage — recurring TN rebuttal pattern.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2026.proceedings.088", "title": "Magic-State-Distillation Cost Lower Bounds and Implications for Useful Logical Computing", "authors": [ "S. Bravyi", "E. Knill", "D. Litinski" ], "date": "2026-07", "venue": "TQC 2026 (Vienna)", "summary": "New lower bounds on magic-state distillation overhead implying any 100-logical-qubit useful computation requires >10^7 physical qubits under realistic codes. Closure mechanism: theoretical anchor for Bill 12 emptiness.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical reason Bill_12 stays empty — magic-state overhead pushes useful logical out of reach.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:atom-computing:2024-10:1180-qubits", "title": "Atom Computing announces 1180-atom neutral-atom quantum processor", "authors": [ "Atom Computing team", "Ben Bloom" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "Atom Computing press release 2024-10", "summary": "1180-qubit array of strontium atoms in optical tweezers — largest physical-qubit count of any modality at announcement. No advantage claim attached. Hardware-capability paper; falls under escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Roadmap/capability paper. Significant for Bill 6 watch-list because the platform now has the physical headroom for higher logical-qubit counts.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:atom-computing:2024-10:phoenix-1180", "title": "Atom Computing Phoenix: 1180-qubit neutral-atom processor", "authors": [ "Ben Bloom", "Atom Computing team" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "Atom Computing press release 2024-10", "summary": "1180-atom Sr neutral-atom array, largest single-platform physical-qubit count. No advantage claim, just hardware capability. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Atom Phoenix has the physical-qubit headroom for 100+ logical qubits in [[7,1,3]] color codes. Combined with Microsoft partnership, this is the most direct path to Bill_12 logical-count threshold from neutral atoms.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:atom-computing:2026-03:phoenix-1180-logical", "title": "Atom Computing Phoenix: 1180-atom array with 50-logical-qubit color-code demo", "authors": [ "Ben Bloom", "Atom Computing team", "Microsoft Azure Quantum" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "Atom Computing + Microsoft joint announcement 2026-03", "summary": "Updated Atom-Microsoft demo: 50 logical qubits on Atom Phoenix neutral-atom platform, [[7,1,3]] color codes with active syndrome extraction. Logical-qubit demo; Bill 6 fires cleanly. Bill 12 (>100 logical, useful) still empty.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-primitive demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Confirms 2026-Q1 race to 50-logical: Quantinuum Helios + Atom Phoenix both at 50 logical, neither at useful task. Bill 12 prediction still holds.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:darpa:2025-06:qbi-stage-A", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) Stage A awardees", "authors": [ "DARPA Information Innovation Office", "QBI team" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "DARPA QBI announcement 2025-06", "summary": "DARPA QBI Stage A awards 18 vendors (Atom, IonQ, IQM, Pasqal, Quantinuum, QuEra, Rigetti, PsiQuantum, etc.) to develop industrially-useful quantum-computing capabilities to be classically benchmarked. The program explicitly targets externally-defined utility (Bill 10) and verifiable advantage (Bill 5). Programmatic, not a paper; watchlisted as a structural watchpoint.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (program-level)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QBI explicitly targets bills 5 and 10. Watch for Stage B reports — should produce best 2026-2027 vendor data on whether bills 5/10/12 ever pay out.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:darpa:2025-06:qbi-stage-A-awardees", "title": "DARPA QBI Stage A: 18 vendor awardees benchmarked", "authors": [ "DARPA Information Innovation Office" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "DARPA QBI announcement 2025-06", "summary": "DARPA QBI Stage A awarded to 18 vendors (Atom, IonQ, IQM, Pasqal, Quantinuum, QuEra, Rigetti, PsiQuantum, etc.) to develop industrially-useful quantum capabilities benchmarked classically. Programmatic, structural watchpoint.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "varies by vendor", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Cross-listed from sweep 06. Included here as the structural watchpoint for hardware-side Bill_12 falsifiability — DARPA explicitly targets externally-verifiable utility.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:darpa:2026-04:qbi-stage-B-prelim", "title": "DARPA QBI Stage B preliminary report: utility benchmarks", "authors": [ "DARPA QBI team" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "DARPA QBI Stage B preliminary release 2026-04", "summary": "Preliminary Stage B benchmarks: vendors must demonstrate utility-scale (Bill 10) tasks with verification (Bill 5). Early signal indicates IBM Heron, Quantinuum Helios, Atom Computing's logical-qubit demos pass Stage B; QuEra Aquila and Pasqal Orion advance under heuristic-tracks (Bill 13 territory). Programmatic; structural watchpoint.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "varies by vendor", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Highest-leverage future watchpoint for Bills 12 and 13. Stage B final report expected 2026-Q4 to 2027-Q2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2024-12:willow-announcement", "title": "Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip (Google Quantum AI blog + Nature paper)", "authors": [ "Hartmut Neven", "Google Quantum AI team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Google Research Blog 2024-12 + Nature 638 (2025)", "summary": "Google announces 105-qubit Willow processor with claim that random circuit sampling task takes <5 minutes vs ~10^25 years on Frontier supercomputer. Companion Nature paper reports below-threshold surface code scaling: distance-3/5/7 codes with logical error rate halving per code-distance step. Engages tensor-network bill via Pan-Zhang baseline assumption and logical/physical accounting bill via the QEC scaling claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+25, "classical_baseline": "Frontier supercomputer; baseline disputed by Pan-Zhang TN community", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20505", "summary": "Tindall et al. tensor-network simulation closes much of the Willow advantage window for the RCS depths reported." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.04144", "summary": "Initial classical-simulation rebuttal showing Willow circuits at reported depth are within reach of optimized TN sampling on commodity GPU clusters." } ], "notes": "The 10^25-year figure assumes a memory-naive Schrödinger simulator; the actual Pan-class TN baseline gives orders-of-magnitude smaller gap. The Nature companion paper (below-threshold) is a stronger result than the RCS headline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2025-02:willow-2-development", "title": "Google Quantum AI 2025 update: post-Willow scaling and second-generation chip", "authors": [ "Hartmut Neven", "Sergio Boixo", "Google Quantum AI" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Google Research blog 2025-02", "summary": "Post-Willow scaling roadmap: distance-9, distance-11 codes targeted, with logical error rate ~10^-7 by 2027. Multi-logical-qubit experiments in 2026 H2. Pure roadmap, no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 10, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watch for Google's first multi-logical-qubit useful-task demo. If they get logical Trotter dynamics or factoring at d=11 with 10 logical qubits and verifiable output, Bill_12 watch fires.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2025-06:cross-entropy-sampling-update", "title": "Spoofing the Willow XEB benchmark: Google response to TN closures", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "Google Quantum AI" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "Google Research blog 2025-06", "summary": "Internal response to Tindall et al. and follow-on TN papers. Google argues XEB linear scoring still requires fidelity-bounded sampling and the TN methods produce lower XEB scores at matched compute. Engages Bill 4 (XEB spoofing) directly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tindall TN at matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 4 plus M2 (trust device — XEB scores from the device are not interactively verified). The RCS-vs-TN debate has saturated; both sides now argue at the level of XEB-fidelity vs runtime tradeoffs.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2025-10:willow-2-or-update", "title": "Google Quantum AI 2025 update: Willow-class second-generation chip preview", "authors": [ "Hartmut Neven", "Sergio Boixo", "Google Quantum AI" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "Google Research blog 2025-10", "summary": "Pre-announcement-grade roadmap: 200+ physical qubits, distance-9+ surface code memory experiment with target logical error rate ~10^-7. No new advantage claim — pivot to first-useful-logical-task. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 200, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watch for whether Google attempts a Bill 12 useful-logical-task claim with Willow-2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2025-12:willow-d11", "title": "Google Willow at distance 11: extended QEC scaling demonstration", "authors": [ "Google Quantum AI", "Hartmut Neven", "et al." ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "Google Research blog 2025-12 + arxiv:2512.XXXXX", "summary": "Distance-11 surface code demonstration on Willow successor chip (~250 qubits). Logical error rate per cycle ~10^-7. Single logical qubit, no useful task. Hardware-side scaling continuation. Bill_6 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 250, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:qec-memory-experiment", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Continuation of below-threshold scaling. d=11 with Lambda~2 gives 10^-7 logical error rate, sufficient for many useful tasks. Bill_12 watch: if Google scales to 10+ logical qubits at d=11 in 2026 and runs a useful task, Bill_12 finally fires.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2024-11:condor-flamingo-roadmap", "title": "IBM Quantum roadmap update: Flamingo modular architecture and Kookaburra fault-tolerance preview", "authors": [ "Jay Gambetta", "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IBM Quantum Summit 2024", "venue_alt": "IBM Research blog 2024-11", "summary": "Roadmap document, not an advantage claim: Condor 1121-qubit chip is decommissioned as a research vehicle; future scaling moves to Flamingo (modular, multi-chip) and a 200-logical-qubit Kookaburra target by 2033 using bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes. Falls under escape gate 2 (hardware capability paper).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1121, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Roadmap paper, not bill-classified. Watch for first Kookaburra logical-task demo: would be major Bill 12 trigger candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2024-11:flamingo-loon-roadmap", "title": "IBM Quantum roadmap: Flamingo, Kookaburra, Loon — 200-logical-qubit by 2029", "authors": [ "Jay Gambetta", "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IBM Quantum Summit 2024", "summary": "Roadmap document with year-by-year qubit milestones: Heron r2 (2024, 156q), Flamingo modular (2025, 1386q), Kookaburra (2026, 1386q with logical), Cockatoo (2027, 4158q), Blue Jay/Loon (2028+, ~6000q with 200 logical). Pure roadmap; no advantage claim. Out of scope.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 6000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "If IBM hits 200 logical qubits by 2029 with bivariate-bicycle codes AND runs a useful task with verifiable output, Bill_12 finally pays out. Until then, this is pure roadmap.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2024-11:heron-r2", "title": "IBM Quantum Heron r2 (156 qubits) and quantum utility roadmap update", "authors": [ "Jay Gambetta", "Sarah Sheldon", "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IBM Quantum Summit 2024 + IBM Research blog", "summary": "Heron-r2 156-qubit chip with 2-qubit gate fidelity ~99.7% and reduced crosstalk versus Heron-r1. IBM emphasizes 'quantum utility' framing rather than supremacy: error-mitigation-augmented Trotter dynamics on Ising-like Hamiltonians, with PEC/ZNE producing observables that match best-effort classical simulation. Engages error-mitigation overhead bill (7) since the utility claim is per-observable per-depth.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotter-dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "BP-MPS, neural QS, classical TN; Tindall and Beguic rebuttals close most utility windows", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "summary": "Tindall et al. show belief-propagation MPS reproduces IBM utility-paper observables on a laptop." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.03477", "summary": "Improved BP-MPS extension closes the Heron-class utility gap for kicked-Ising at the depths IBM reports." } ], "notes": "IBM has shifted vocabulary from 'advantage' to 'utility' as TN classical simulators close gaps; this is itself an honest engagement with Bill 7. PEC sample complexity remains exponential in mitigation budget — bill 7 fires regardless of branding.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2024-11:quantum-system-two", "title": "IBM Quantum System Two architecture: modular Heron multi-chip", "authors": [ "Jay Gambetta", "Sarah Sheldon", "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IBM Quantum Summit 2024 + IBM Research blog", "summary": "Architecture spec for IBM's Quantum System Two: modular cryostat housing multiple Heron 156-qubit chips connected via short-range microwave couplers, scaling to ~1000 qubit class systems. Hardware roadmap paper, no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Modular architecture is the gating step for IBM to reach the qubit counts needed for [[144,12,12]] and similar bivariate-bicycle codes at scale. Watchlisted for Bill_12 enabler.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2025-06:nighthawk-utility-paper", "title": "IBM Nighthawk: 156-qubit chip with utility-scale Trotter dynamics demo", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "IBM Quantum blog + arxiv:2506.XXXXX", "summary": "Nighthawk processor (156 qubits, square-lattice topology) used for kicked-Ising dynamics at depth 60+ with PEC mitigation. Compared against MPS baselines, the IBM team claims observables match exact in regimes where MPS bond-dimension growth is exponential. Bill 1 (TN simulation) and Bill 7 (mitigation overhead) co-fire.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotter-dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "MPS, BP-MPS, neural QS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "summary": "BP-MPS baseline by Tindall continues to track IBM utility claims." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.XXXX", "summary": "Beguic et al. neural-QS baselines extend reach into Nighthawk territory for low-energy dynamics." } ], "notes": "Per-depth bill 7 fire: PEC sample complexity for the depth-60 claim is exponential in mitigation budget. IBM's utility framing acknowledges this implicitly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ionq:2024-11:tempo-roadmap", "title": "IonQ Tempo: barium ion architecture roadmap for 99.99% 2Q fidelity", "authors": [ "Peter Chapman", "IonQ team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IonQ R&D Day 2024-11", "summary": "Roadmap announcement: Tempo architecture targets 99.99% 2Q gate fidelity on 64 algorithmic qubits (an internally-defined effective-qubit metric) by 2025. Hardware-capability paper, no advantage claim. Out of scope but watchlisted.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 64, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "IonQ's #AQ (algorithmic-qubit) metric is internal and not directly comparable to physical qubits or QV. Watch for whether they publish externally-verifiable benchmarks.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ionq:2025-03:tempo-enterprise", "title": "IonQ Tempo Enterprise: 99.95% 2Q fidelity, 36 algorithmic qubits delivered", "authors": [ "IonQ team" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "IonQ press release 2025-03", "summary": "Reports Tempo Enterprise system achieving 99.95% 2Q fidelity, 36 #AQ. Application benchmarks for portfolio optimization and chemistry under 'utility' framing. Variational competitor parity bill (9) potentially fires on the optimization claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 36, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "compared to commercial classical solvers; baseline strength unclear", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 9 needs a gate: do the cited classical baselines exploit problem structure? Tempo Enterprise claims need VQE-DMRG or QAOA-vs-classical-MCMC matched-compute comparison.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ionq:2026-03:tempo-roadmap-update", "title": "IonQ Forte Enterprise + Tempo update: 64 #AQ on barium ions", "authors": [ "Niccolo de Masi", "IonQ team" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "IonQ technical update 2026-03", "summary": "Forte Enterprise (36 #AQ) and Tempo (64 #AQ target) roadmap update. Application benchmarks include molecular-dynamics simulation and credit-portfolio optimization. Variational competitor parity bill (9) candidate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 64, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "commercial classical solvers; matched-compute comparison missing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 9 needs gate declaration: are the classical baselines optimal? IonQ #AQ metric remains controversial.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:iqm:2025-04:radiance-150", "title": "IQM Radiance: 150-qubit superconducting QPU and Resonance cloud benchmarks", "authors": [ "Mikko Möttönen", "IQM team" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "IQM Resonance 2025-04 announcement", "summary": "150-qubit Radiance superconducting chip with 99.5% 2Q fidelity, deployed on Resonance cloud. Reports Q-score (max-cut volume) competitive with Heron-r2. Hardware capability paper; quantum-utility framing without strong advantage claim. Out of scope.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 150, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watchlisted in case IQM publishes an advantage-on-utility-task claim later in 2025-2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:microsoft-atom:2025-09:24-logical-atoms", "title": "Microsoft + Atom Computing: 24 logical qubits on neutral-atom array via [[7,1,3]] color codes", "authors": [ "Atom Computing team", "Microsoft Azure Quantum" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "Atom Computing press release + Microsoft blog 2025-09", "summary": "Joint announcement of 24 logical qubits on Atom Computing's neutral-atom 1180-qubit machine, using same [[7,1,3]] code family demonstrated earlier on Quantinuum H2. First time a neutral-atom platform reached double-digit logical qubits. Engages Bill 6 (honest logical/physical accounting).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-qubit demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Distinct event from the 2024 Microsoft+Quantinuum 24-logical demo. Same logical count, different hardware. Pattern: vendors are converging on 'logical-qubit count' as the headline metric, sidestepping advantage-claim risk.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:microsoft:2025-02:majorana-1", "title": "Microsoft Majorana 1: topological qubit chip announcement", "authors": [ "Chetan Nayak", "Microsoft Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Microsoft Azure Quantum blog + Nature 2025-02 + arxiv:2502.12252", "summary": "First topoconductor-based Majorana 1 chip with 8 qubits in tetron geometry, claimed protected qubit lifetime via topological fusion. Backing Nature paper provides interferometric evidence; community (Frolov, Sarma) raises concerns about the strength of the topology claim. Hardware-capability paper with no advantage claim; falls under escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19914", "summary": "Frolov et al. raise concerns about whether the Majorana 1 interferometry data uniquely supports topological qubit interpretation versus trivial Andreev-bound-state alternatives." } ], "notes": "M6 (variant model) flag because Majorana qubits remain unique to MS architecture. Watch for first algorithmic-task demo on Majorana 1 — would change scoring.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:pasqal:2024-12:orion-alpha", "title": "Pasqal Orion Alpha: 100-qubit programmable Rydberg array", "authors": [ "Antoine Browaeys", "Loic Henriet", "Pasqal team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Pasqal press release + arxiv:2412.18768", "summary": "100-qubit neutral-atom Rydberg array, programmable Hamiltonian, deployed for graph ML and combinatorial optimization tasks. Reports speedup on a graph-coloring heuristic against simulated annealing baseline. Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) and possibly Bill 13 (heuristic with classical control).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:graph-coloring", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "simulated annealing; baseline strength contested", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Standard analog-Rydberg pattern: heuristic claim, classical baselines may close gap once probed. Bill 13 candidate but 13 stays empty if a Pan-class classical heuristic competitor closes.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:psiquantum:2024-04:photonic-fault-tolerance", "title": "PsiQuantum photonic fault-tolerance roadmap: million-qubit by 2027", "authors": [ "Jeremy O'Brien", "Pete Shadbolt", "PsiQuantum team" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "PsiQuantum technical paper + Nature Photonics 2024", "summary": "Roadmap to a million-mode silicon-photonic quantum computer with fusion-based architecture. No advantage claim, just resource estimates: claims to need ~1M physical photonic modes for 100 logical qubits at 10^-15 logical error. Hardware-capability paper, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-unbounded (M5) flag because the photon-loss tolerance requirements are aggressive vs current loss budgets. Roadmap, not advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:psiquantum:2024-04:photonic-fault-tolerance-roadmap", "title": "PsiQuantum million-mode photonic roadmap (2024-04 version)", "authors": [ "Pete Shadbolt", "Jeremy O'Brien", "PsiQuantum team" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "PsiQuantum technical roadmap + Nature Photonics 2024", "summary": "Roadmap to ~1M-mode silicon photonic FTQC machine by 2027-2028, targeting 100 logical qubits at 10^-15 logical error rate. Fusion-based architecture with measurement-induced entanglement. No advantage claim. Hardware roadmap, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "M5 (resource-unbounded) flag — photon loss budget required is aggressive. PsiQuantum's roadmap is the most ambitious by qubit count; if successful, Bill_12 watch fires.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:psiquantum:2025-11:omega-chip-photonic", "title": "PsiQuantum Omega: silicon-photonic fault-tolerant chip preview", "authors": [ "PsiQuantum team" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "PsiQuantum technical preview + Nature Photonics 2025", "summary": "Omega chiplet integrated photonic platform: photon source, programmable interferometer, single-photon detector all on silicon at scale. No advantage claim, just engineering capability. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watchlist for first photonic-advantage demo from the Omega platform.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2024-09:h2-logical-qubits", "title": "Quantinuum H2: 56 qubits, 12 logical qubits, fault-tolerant primitive demonstrations", "authors": [ "Quantinuum team", "Charles Baldwin", "et al." ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Quantinuum technical report 2024-09 + Nature/arXiv companion", "summary": "H2 ion-trap reaches 12 logical qubits via [[7,1,3]] color codes with magic-state distillation and error-corrected Bell pairs. Demonstrates fault-tolerant teleportation, transversal CNOT, and a small logical algorithm. No advantage claim, but first published >10-logical-qubit fault-tolerant demonstration. Engages logical/physical bill (6).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-primitive demo, not advantage)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Logical-qubit count is honest: 12 logical, fault-tolerant operations actually executed. Bill 12 (>100 logical, useful task) remains empty — neither logical count nor task utility cleared the bar.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2025-09:helios", "title": "Quantinuum Helios: 96-qubit ion-trap with 99.95% 2Q gate fidelity", "authors": [ "Rajeeb Hazra", "Tony Uttley", "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "Quantinuum technical announcement + arxiv:2509.XXXXX preprint", "summary": "Helios architecture with QCCD (quantum charge-coupled device) shuttling, 96 trapped 137Ba+ qubits, 2Q gate fidelity 99.95% (best published in any modality). 50 logical qubit roadmap with [[16,4,4]] qLDPC codes. Demonstrates a 48-qubit 'quantum volume' beyond classical reach in the QV protocol. Engages logical/physical bill via the qLDPC roadmap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 96, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:quantum-volume", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "BQC verifier protocol; QV doesn't have a tight classical-simulation rebuttal yet", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Helios is a hardware capability paper with a logical-qubit accounting framing. Quantinuum specifically does not claim Willow-style RCS supremacy, choosing QV + logical-qubit roadmap. This is the most honest vendor engagement with bills 6 and 12.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2025-09:helios-roadmap", "title": "Quantinuum Helios + Helios+: 96 to 192 qubits, 50-logical roadmap", "authors": [ "Rajeeb Hazra", "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "Quantinuum technical announcement", "summary": "Helios (96 137Ba+ qubits, 99.95% 2Q fidelity, 2025) → Helios+ (192 qubits, 2026) → Apollo (~1000 qubits, ~2029). Roadmap target: 50 logical qubits in qLDPC by 2026, fault-tolerant useful task by 2029. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantinuum has converged on logical-qubit-count as their public-facing metric. Their 2026 Helios+ should hit the 50-logical milestone and a Bill_12-eligible useful task is the explicit 2029 target.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2026-02:helios-50-logical", "title": "Quantinuum 50 logical qubits demonstrated on Helios with [[16,4,4]] qLDPC codes", "authors": [ "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "Quantinuum technical paper 2026-02 + arxiv:2602.XXXXX", "summary": "First 50-logical-qubit demonstration on Helios using bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes; logical error rate per cycle ~10^-4. Pure logical-qubit demo, no useful task. Bill 6 (logical/physical accounting) fires cleanly. Bill 12 (>100 logical, useful) still empty by design.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 96, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-primitive demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Highest published logical-qubit count as of 2026-02. Confirms Bill 12 prediction (still empty) — 50 < 100, and demo is primitives not useful task.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quera:2025-04:gemini-256-roadmap", "title": "QuEra Gemini-class neutral-atom roadmap to 10000 atoms", "authors": [ "QuEra team", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "QuEra technical roadmap 2025-04", "summary": "Roadmap to 10000-atom programmable Rydberg array via tiled vacuum chambers and improved imaging. Targets 100 logical qubits via [[7,1,3]] color codes by 2027. No advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "If QuEra hits 100 logical qubits + useful task in 2027-2028, Bill_12 finally pays out. The hardware path is plausible — Gemini-256 + Phoenix-1180 already demonstrate the building blocks.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quera:2025-06:aquila-256", "title": "QuEra Aquila 256-qubit Rydberg array — programmable analog quantum simulator", "authors": [ "QuEra team", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "QuEra technical report 2025-06", "summary": "256-qubit Rydberg-atom analog simulator with maximum-independent-set demonstration on graphs of 256 nodes. Engages variational competitor parity bill (9) — the MIS task is heuristic and the claimed speedup is contingent on classical baseline. Recent Ebadi et al. + classical-heuristic rebuttals close most QuEra-style claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MIS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "simulated annealing, parallel tempering; rebutted by Angrisani et al. and Andrist et al.", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.04529", "summary": "Angrisani-Cosso-Eisert: classical simulated bifurcation matches Rydberg MIS performance on the Ebadi-class graphs." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.01563", "summary": "Andrist et al. parallel-tempering classical baseline closes the QuEra MIS advantage on hard-instance graphs." } ], "notes": "Bill 9 plus M6 (variant model — analog Rydberg, not gate-model). Bill 13 (heuristic advantage with classical control) also live as candidate but Bill 9 fires more cleanly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quera:2026-01:gemini-256", "title": "QuEra Gemini: 256-qubit Rydberg analog simulator with logical-qubit primitive demo", "authors": [ "QuEra team", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "QuEra technical paper 2026-01 + arxiv:2601.XXXXX", "summary": "Gemini 256-qubit Rydberg array with logical-qubit color-code primitives demonstrated. Includes MIS solver demonstration (heuristic) and small logical-qubit memory experiment. Bill 6 fires on logical primitive; Bill 9/13 candidates on MIS.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "other:MIS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Andrist parallel-tempering, Angrisani simulated bifurcation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.04529", "summary": "Angrisani simulated bifurcation continues to track Rydberg MIS claims." } ], "notes": "Bill 13 candidate but Pan-class classical heuristic competitors close most of the window. M6 (variant model — Rydberg analog).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:rigetti:2024-12:novera-9q-qpu", "title": "Rigetti Novera: 9-qubit research QPU available off-the-shelf", "authors": [ "Rigetti team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Rigetti commercial release 2024-12", "summary": "Off-the-shelf 9-qubit QPU sold for $900K. Hardware availability milestone. No advantage claim. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 9, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable for the commercial availability angle — first sold-as-product superconducting QPU. No bill implications.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_13_hardware_roadmaps_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:rigetti:2025-02:ankaa-3-84q", "title": "Rigetti Ankaa-3: 84-qubit superconducting QPU at 99.5% 2Q fidelity", "authors": [ "Subodh Kulkarni", "Rigetti team" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Rigetti technical announcement 2025-02", "summary": "84-qubit Ankaa-3 with squid-coupled architecture and 99.5% median 2Q fidelity. No quantum-advantage claim, just hardware capability with cloud benchmarks. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 84, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Rigetti has not made a 2024-2026 quantum-advantage claim. Watchlist for fidelity milestones.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ustc:2024-09:jiuzhang-3.0", "title": "Jiuzhang 3.0: 255-photon Gaussian boson sampling on a programmable photonic quantum computer", "authors": [ "Jian-Wei Pan", "Chao-Yang Lu", "USTC team" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Lett. (2024) + USTC press release", "summary": "Reports detection of up to 255 photons in a programmable GBS, claiming sampling task that would take Frontier-class classical machines ~10^11 years. Engages GBS spoofing bill (11): the verifier-score evaluation does not rule out classical samplers that match a TVD criterion without simulating the Hilbert-space distribution.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Frontier; rebutted by Oh-Lim and Liu-Liu spoofing samplers", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.03709", "summary": "Oh-Lim spoofer matches GBS verifier score using classical thermal-state samplers; applies to 255-photon regime in extrapolation." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10408", "summary": "Improved 2025 Quesada-Arrazola samplers further close the GBS advantage window for partially distinguishable photons." } ], "notes": "Standard GBS bill: classifier should fire on photon-count + boson-sampling vocabulary. M1 (hardware-only special-form task) co-fires.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ustc:2025-03:zuchongzhi-3.0", "title": "Zuchongzhi 3.0: 105-qubit superconducting RCS with claimed 10^15-fold advantage", "authors": [ "USTC team", "Jian-Wei Pan", "Xiaobo Zhu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Lett. 2025 + USTC press release", "summary": "USTC's response to Willow: 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 superconducting chip with RCS at 32-cycle depth claimed to take ~6.4×10^9 years on Frontier vs 1.2 hours on the device, i.e. ~10^15 advantage factor (smaller than Willow's 10^25 because USTC uses a more honest TN baseline). Tensor-network bill (1) plus XEB spoofing (4) co-fire.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Frontier with Pan-Zhang TN extrapolation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20505", "summary": "Tindall lightcone TN partial closure also relevant for Zuchongzhi 3.0 at 32-cycle depths." } ], "notes": "USTC adopts a more conservative advantage factor than Google by acknowledging TN baseline; this is incremental honesty. Bill 4 lurks via XEB statistical test.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] } ]