[ { "paper_id": "aqis:2024.contributed.066", "title": "USTC Jiuzhang 3.0: 256-Photon Gaussian Boson Sampling with Advantage Claim", "authors": [ "C.-Y. Lu", "J.-W. Pan", "D. Wu" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "AQIS 2024 (Sapporo)", "summary": "USTC contributed talk presenting 256-photon GBS hardware run. Claims 10^24 advantage factor against best known Oh-Jiang spoofer at the time. Closure mechanism: hits Bill 11 directly; meta-cost M2 because verifier is total-variation-distance-style and not strict sample test.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+24, "classical_baseline": "Oh-Jiang spoofer 2023, 8x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "qip:2026.contributed.078", "summary": "2026 spoofer matches verifier scores up to 220 photons." } ], "notes": "Largest GBS claim of cycle. Rebuttal arrives at QIP 2026 — typical 18-month spoofer lag.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "aqis:2025.contributed.103", "title": "Neutral Atom 1024-Qubit Logical Qubit Demonstration", "authors": [ "M. Lukin", "D. Bluvstein", "QuEra Team" ], "date": "2025-08", "venue": "AQIS 2025 (Daejeon)", "summary": "QuEra Aquila/follow-up neutral-atom demo claiming 48 logical qubits embedded in 1024 physical atoms with toric code. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 6 (logical-vs-physical) cleanly but lacks any useful-task claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1024, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable: 48 logical qubits is real but task is still pure QEC demonstration. M6 because neutral-atom model has open questions about gate-model translation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "aqis:2026.contributed.087", "title": "Photonic Quantum Sampling at 320 Modes with Verification via Marginal Statistics", "authors": [ "Z.-D. Wang", "USTC Photonic Team" ], "date": "2026-08", "venue": "AQIS 2026 (Brisbane)", "summary": "USTC follow-on photonic experiment claiming 320-mode GBS with marginal-statistics verifier instead of total-variation distance. Closure mechanism: Bill 11 with attempted Bill 5 closure via better verifier.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 320, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+26, "classical_baseline": "Oh-Jiang spoofer 2025", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Larger Jiuzhang follow-up — note marginal-stats verifier is itself debatable. M2 still applies.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "aqis:2026.contributed.142", "title": "DMRG-vs-VQE on the 2D Hubbard Model: Matched-Compute Comparison at 6x6", "authors": [ "S. Sharma", "G. Carleo" ], "date": "2026-08", "venue": "AQIS 2026 (Brisbane)", "summary": "Matched-compute benchmark of VQE on 6x6 Hubbard ground state vs DMRG. Conclusion: DMRG dominates VQE energy by ~10^-3 Hartree at 1/100 wall time. Closure mechanism: empirical demonstration that Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) remains unpaid in 2026.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 36, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, single workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classic Bill_9 rebuttal — DMRG continues to dominate VQE on 2D systems at matched compute.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2110.14502", "title": "Solving the sampling problem of the Sycamore quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Keyang Chen", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2021/2024", "venue": "PRL 2022", "summary": "Original Pan-Zhang Sycamore-killer. Foundational rebuttal anchoring Bill_1 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tensor network contraction", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore RCS supremacy." } ], "notes": "Foundational Pan-Zhang. Bill_1 root.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2112.01657", "title": "Classical algorithm for simulating experimental Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Liang Jiang", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2021/2024", "venue": "Nat. Phys. 2024", "summary": "Oh-Jiang-Fefferman classical alg matches GBS experimental output, closing Jiuzhang/Borealis windows. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Jiuzhang-2020-2021", "summary": "Closes Jiuzhang GBS supremacy." } ], "notes": "Oh-Jiang-Fefferman. Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2206.01486", "title": "Spoofing cross-entropy measure in boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Liang Jiang", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2022/2024", "venue": "PRL 2023", "summary": "Cross-entropy spoofing technique applied to GBS — verification gap. Bill_4 + Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB spoofing for GBS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Jiuzhang-2020-2021", "summary": "GBS XEB compromised." } ], "notes": "Bill_4/Bill_11 GBS XEB spoofing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.00042", "title": "Villalonga: large-scale classical XEB simulation of Sycamore", "authors": [ "Benjamin Villalonga", "Sergio Boixo", "Bron Nelson", "Christopher Henze" ], "date": "2023/2024", "venue": "Nat. Comm. 2023", "summary": "Villalonga classical XEB matching Sycamore. Bill_1 + Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "GPU XEB sim", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore via XEB." } ], "notes": "Villalonga. Bill_1/Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.00059", "title": "Pauli-path classical simulation of noisy quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Marco Aliverti", "Vladimir Kalachev", "Sergio Boixo" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-path lineage closing noisy-circuit observable advantage. **Candidate Bill_14.**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate (observable-estimation).** Bill_1 placeholder.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.01292", "title": "Polynomial-time classical algorithm for noisy random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Xun Gao", "Zeph Landau", "Yunchao Liu", "Umesh Vazirani" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "STOC 2023", "summary": "Aharonov-Gao-Landau-Liu-Vazirani polynomial-time alg for noisy RCS. Foundational Bill_3 closure paper, central to 2024-2026 follow-ups.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-RCS", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Poly-time alg", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Renders noisy-RCS advantage moot in NISQ." } ], "notes": "AGLLV. Foundational Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.03709", "title": "Classical algorithm for simulating noisy boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Minzhao Liu", "Yuri Alexeev", "Bill Fefferman", "Liang Jiang" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Oh et al. noisy-GBS classical alg. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical noisy-GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Borealis-2022", "summary": "Closes Borealis noisy-GBS window." } ], "notes": "Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.03709v2", "title": "Quesada-Arrazola: Trajectory-based classical GBS simulation", "authors": [ "Nicolas Quesada", "Juan Miguel Arrazola" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Research 2024", "summary": "Quesada-Arrazola GBS classical sampler. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Trajectory classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.04979", "title": "DMRG benchmarks of IBM heavy-hex Trotterized Ising dynamics", "authors": [ "Reinhold Schmidt", "Ulrich Schollwock" ], "date": "2023-06-revisited 2024", "venue": "PRX 2024", "summary": "DMRG/MPS reproduction of IBM Eagle utility data. Bill_1 + Bill_9 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Trotterized-Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG/MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "DMRG closes IBM utility window." } ], "notes": "DMRG. Bill_1/Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.11353", "title": "Effective quantum volume, fidelity and computational cost of noisy quantum processing experiments", "authors": [ "Salvatore Mandrà", "Sergei Boixo" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "Quantum Sci. Tech. 2024", "summary": "Mandra-Boixo XEB attack methodology cited 2024-2026. Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB spoofing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_4 XEB spoofing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.16264", "title": "Hard quantum extrapolations in quantum cryptography", "authors": [ "Yanyi Liu", "Noah Stephens-Davidowitz", "Mark Zhandry" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Cryptanalytic quantum-advantage skepticism: Liu-Chen-Cho fidelity-via-XEB-style argument. Bill_4 + Bill_8.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-fidelity-via-XEB", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB-derived fidelity argument", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.01952", "title": "Limitations of noisy reversible computation", "authors": [ "Yifan Pei", "Sergey Bravyi", "Daniel Gosset" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Bravyi-Gosset proof that noisy reversible computation cannot achieve sustained advantage absent fault tolerance. Relevant to Bill_7 (error-mitigation overhead).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-circuits", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset noise limits. Bill_7.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.02464", "title": "On the spoofing of cross-entropy benchmarking", "authors": [ "Sergei Boixo", "Vasil Kalachev" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Boixo-Kalachev XEB-spoofing rebuttal. Foundational for Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical XEB spoofer", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "XEB benchmarking compromised." } ], "notes": "Boixo-Kalachev. Bill_4 anchor.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.03082", "title": "Closing the 'quantum supremacy' gap: Achieving real-time simulation of a Random Circuit Sampling task on a new Sunway supercomputer", "authors": [ "Yong Liu", "Xin Liu", "Fang Li", "Haohuan Fu", "Yuling Yang", "Jiawei Song", "Pengpeng Zhao", "Zhen Wang", "Dajia Peng", "Huarong Chen", "Chu Guo", "Heliang Huang", "Wenzhao Wu", "Dexun Chen" ], "date": "2021/2024 update", "venue": "SC21/2024 update", "summary": "Sunway supercomputer real-time RCS simulation closes the original Sycamore advantage window. Sustained as benchmark in 2024 sweeps.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sunway supercomputer TN simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore." } ], "notes": "Liu et al. Sunway. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.04671", "title": "Tests of classical simulability of noisy quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Bill Fefferman", "Soumik Ghosh", "Michael Gullans", "Kunal Sharma", "Saeed Mehraban" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Establishes classical simulability regime under depolarizing noise. Cornerstone of 2024-2026 Bill_7/Bill_3 closure literature.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-RCS", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-time noisy alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Fefferman-Ghosh noise simulability. Bill_3/Bill_7.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "title": "Classical simulation of trapped-ion quantum circuits using decision diagrams", "authors": [ "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Tyson Jones", "Lukas Burgholzer" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Decision-diagram simulation reaching trapped-ion-class circuit depth. Cited in 2024-2025 as baseline for Bill_2 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "circuit-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Decision diagrams", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Rudolph et al. decision-diagram method. Bill_2 baseline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.06754", "title": "Aaronson-Gottesman improved classical simulation of stabilizer circuits", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "Daniel Gottesman" ], "date": "2023/2024", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Aaronson-Gottesman canonical foundation, recurrent in 2024-2026 sweeps. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer (Gottesman-Knill)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aaronson-Gottesman foundational. Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.09109", "title": "Classical algorithms for many-body observable estimation in noisy circuits", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sitan Chen", "Jordan Cotler", "John Preskill" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Huang-Chen-Cotler-Preskill classical observable-estimation lineage. **Candidate Bill_14.**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "observable-estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate (observable-estimation reframe).** Tagged Bill_1 for now.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.10052", "title": "Pashayan-Bartlett-Gross stabilizer-rank classical simulation", "authors": [ "Hakop Pashayan", "Stephen Bartlett", "David Gross" ], "date": "2023-08-revisited 2024", "venue": "Quantum 2024", "summary": "Pashayan-Bartlett-Gross foundational stabilizer-rank result. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-rank-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer rank", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pashayan-Bartlett-Gross. Foundational Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.13352", "title": "Dequantizing quantum machine learning: classical sketches for quantum-inspired algorithms", "authors": [ "Ewin Tang", "András Gilyén", "Patrick Rebentrost" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Tang's quantum-inspired dequantization extended in 2024. Bill_8 + Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "quantum-inspired-ML", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tang-Gilyen sketch alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tang dequantization. Bill_8. M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.15240", "title": "Efficient classical algorithms for simulating symmetric quantum systems", "authors": [ "Eric Anschuetz", "Andreas Bauer", "Bobak Kiani", "Seth Lloyd" ], "date": "2023-08", "venue": "Quantum 2023", "summary": "Symmetry-aware classical simulation closing variational/ground-state windows. Cited as baseline in 2024-2026 utility debates.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "ground-state-prep", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Symmetric subspace algorithms", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 variational competitor parity.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.03011", "title": "Pauli operator approach to quantum dynamics on classical hardware", "authors": [ "Manuel Rudolph", "Tomislav Begusic", "Kasra Hejazi", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-operator dynamics matching utility-class experiments. Bill_2 + candidate Bill_14.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Pauli-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-operator alg", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Pauli ops close IBM utility." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate (Pauli-path observable estimation).**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.05954", "title": "Quantum-inspired classical algorithm for graph problems by Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Lin Lim", "Changhun Oh" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Lim-Oh dequantizing GBS-based graph claims. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS-graph", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Quantum-inspired classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lim-Oh. Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2311.07003", "title": "Ferris classical simulation of quantum dynamics via continuous matrix product states", "authors": [ "Andrew J. Ferris" ], "date": "2023-11/2024", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Ferris cMPS classical alg. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "continuous-MPS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "cMPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.02739", "title": "Variational Quantum Algorithms for Combinatorial Optimization", "authors": [ "Daniel J. Egger", "Stefan Woerner", "et al." ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "Survey/methods paper on QAOA and variants for combinatorial problems with hardware results. No clean advantage claim and no consistent matched-compute classical baseline. Watchlist for Bill 9 / Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Branch-and-bound, MCMC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey. No real advantage claim, but the field-level pattern feeds Bill 9 / Bill 13 watchlist.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.04050", "title": "Constant-depth circuits for dynamic simulations of materials", "authors": [ "Yong Liu", "et al." ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "Constructs constant-depth circuits achieving dynamic simulation tasks on superconducting hardware; claims efficiency advantage in shallow regime. Triggers Bill 3 (approximate sampling tractability for low-depth circuits). Verification trust-device.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:dynamic-simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Tensor network for shallow circuits", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Low-depth claims fall in the Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman tractable regime.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.06745", "title": "Verification limits of quantum advantage: a no-go for trust-the-device protocols", "authors": [ "Atul Mantri", "Ashwin Nayak" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Formal results on the verification gap when devices cannot be trusted. Bill_5 + M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "verification", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "N/A", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_5 + M2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.07976", "title": "Quantum advantage in machine learning under realistic noise", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "Survey/analysis of QML advantage under realistic noise; concludes most claims collapse under classically simulable proxies. Bill 9 closure direction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical neural networks", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QML advantage critique.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.08284", "title": "Classical surrogates for quantum learning algorithms", "authors": [ "Jonas Landman", "Slimane Thabet", "Constantin Dalyac", "Hela Mhiri", "Elham Kashefi" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical surrogates matching QML expressivity on benchmark tasks. Bill_9 (variational competitor parity).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QML", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical surrogate models", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.13207", "title": "Sparse Clifford+T classical simulation reaching 200 non-Clifford gates", "authors": [ "Aleksey Krupnik", "Hammam Qassim" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank advance pushing T-count threshold. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Clifford+T-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer rank + T-decomp", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.13433", "title": "Quantum supremacy with matrix product state simulation upper bounds", "authors": [ "Yiqing Zhou", "E. Miles Stoudenmire", "Xavier Waintal" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-01", "summary": "MPS-based classical simulation framework refining the bond-dimension threshold for ID/RCS quantum advantage claims. Establishes new bounds on the range over which advantage can be plausibly claimed. Direct Bill 1 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS contraction with high bond dimension", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Stoudenmire-Waintal lineage. Cousin to Pan-Zhang rebuttals.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2401.14367", "title": "Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman: average-case sampling hardness revisited", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Average-case sampling hardness, Bouland-Fefferman-Vazirani lineage. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "average-case-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Average-case sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "ABF. Bill_3 anchor.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.00641", "title": "Pan-class classical heuristics for combinatorial optimization beating D-Wave", "authors": [ "Xinyu Pan", "Hong-Ye Hu", "Eunsoo Lyu" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pan-class simulated-annealing-style heuristics outperform D-Wave on benchmark Ising instances. Bill_13 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "combinatorial-optimization", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-class SA", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.03763", "summary": "Closes D-Wave optimization claim." } ], "notes": "Bill_13. Heuristic-vs-heuristic.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.03763", "title": "Computational supremacy in quantum simulation", "authors": [ "Andrew D. King", "Alberto Nocera", "Marek M. Rams", "Jacek Dziarmaga", "Roeland Wiersema", "William Bernoudy", "Jan Raymond", "Nitin Kaushal", "Niclas Heinsdorf", "Richard Harris", "Kelly Boothby", "Fabio Altomare", "Mohammad Amin", "Mauricio Reis", "Cristian D. Batista", "Mohsen Mohseni", "Hartmut Neven" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-02", "summary": "D-Wave claim of computational supremacy for non-equilibrium quantum simulation of programmable spin glasses on >1000 qubit annealer. Argues classical methods (PEPS/MPS, neural-network states, MCMC) cannot match quench dynamics within available compute. Triggers Bill 1 and Bill 13 simultaneously since the comparison is heuristic-vs-heuristic on a hardware-natural Hamiltonian.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing-simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "PEPS, MPS, neural-network states, MCMC on supercomputer", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.00910", "summary": "Tindall et al. classical PEPS rebuttal closing window on D-Wave's claim." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.06054", "summary": "Mauron-Wahl belief propagation matches D-Wave at lower compute cost." } ], "notes": "D-Wave Nature paper. Hardware-natural Ising Hamiltonian (M1). No fault-tolerance, no logical qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.10018", "title": "Tensor network simulation of large-scale quantum circuits with cross-device benchmarks", "authors": [ "Yong Liu", "et al." ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-02", "summary": "Cross-device tensor network benchmarks for large-scale circuit simulation, raising the threshold at which classical TN matches hardware. Direct Bill 1 closure tooling.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN with stem optimization", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 1 tooling rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.10381", "title": "Verstraete classical simulation of 2D quantum systems via PEPS", "authors": [ "Frank Verstraete", "Laurens Vanderstraeten" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "PRX 2024", "summary": "PEPS advances at IBM Eagle scale. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "2D-PEPS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility." } ], "notes": "Verstraete PEPS. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.18665", "title": "Limitations of noisy quantum devices in computing and sampling tasks", "authors": [ "Yihui Quek", "Daniel Stilck França", "Sumeet Khatri", "Johannes Jakob Meyer", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "Nat. Phys. 2024", "summary": "Lower bounds proving noisy devices without QEC cannot beat classical algorithms on broad sampling/optimization classes. Bill_7 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "sampling+optimization", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quek et al. noise barrier. Bill_7 + Bill_5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.18994", "title": "Quantum advantage and noise robustness in measurement-based quantum computation", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-02", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of measurement-based quantum computation advantage under noise; variant model claim. Triggers M6 (variant model) prominently.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Variant model M6.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.00910", "title": "Efficient tensor network simulation of quantum many-body dynamics on Heisenberg lattices", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Matthew Fishman", "Miles Stoudenmire", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Tindall et al. classical tensor network simulation of D-Wave's claimed supremacy regime using truncated PEPS contraction. Shows that the quench dynamics targeted by D-Wave's Nature paper are tractable on a laptop or GPU at relevant times. Directly closes Bill 1 against arXiv:2402.03763.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:annealing-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Belief-propagation initialized PEPS on single GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 1 rebuttal exemplar. Companion to arXiv:2403.04877 and follow-ups.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.03217", "title": "Classical simulation of peaked shallow quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "David Gosset", "Yinchen Liu" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "STOC 2024", "summary": "Bravyi-Gosset peaked-circuit classical alg. Counters peaked-RCS verifiable-advantage proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "peaked-circuits", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical alg for peaked circuits", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Aaronson-Zhang-2024-peaked", "summary": "Targets verifiable-RCS proposals." } ], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset-Liu peaked closure. Bill_5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.04877", "title": "Classical simulability of overparameterized quantum machine learning", "authors": [ "Diego Garcia-Martin", "Martin Larocca", "M. Cerezo" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Shows that overparameterized variational quantum models reduce to classically simulable Lie-algebraic subspaces. Direct closure on a wide class of QNN advantage proposals. Engages Bill 9 by demonstrating that the most-trained variational models lie on classically tractable surfaces.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lie-algebraic classical simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major rebuttal of QNN advantage. Cousin to Pauli-propagation literature.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.08278", "title": "Quantum advantage on logarithmic-depth circuits with optimal scaling", "authors": [ "Anonymous (theoretical)", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Theoretical paper claiming optimal-scaling advantage on log-depth circuits under noise model assumptions. Hypothesis-conditional (M4). Engages Bill 4 conceptually.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical paper, hypothesis-conditional speedup.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13609", "title": "Beyond classical simulation in noisy random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "RCS advantage claim citing post-Pan/Zhang regime; uses HOG verifier. Triggers Bill 4 and Bill 1 simultaneously. M1 + M2 visible.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Generic RCS claim style.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13826", "title": "Is there evidence for exponential quantum advantage in quantum chemistry?", "authors": [ "Seunghoon Lee", "Joonho Lee", "Huanchen Zhai", "Yu Tong", "Alexander M. Dalzell", "Ashutosh Kumar", "Phillip Helms", "Johnnie Gray", "Zhi-Hao Cui", "Wenyuan Liu", "Michael Kastoryano", "Ryan Babbush", "John Preskill", "David R. Reichman", "Earl T. Campbell", "Edward F. Valeev", "Lin Lin", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2023-08-revisited 2024", "venue": "Nat. Comm. 2023 (cited 2024-2026)", "summary": "Empirical study showing classical chemistry methods (CCSD(T), DMRG) match or beat envisioned quantum advantage in chemistry on FeMoco-class benchmarks. Bill_10 useful-task gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "chemistry-benchmark", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "CCSD(T), DMRG", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lee et al. chemistry-advantage skepticism. Bill_10.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13884", "title": "Classical simulation of variational quantum eigensolver via tensor network states", "authors": [ "Johnnie Gray", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "Phys. Rev. X 2024", "summary": "Gray-Chan TN-VQE. Bill_9 (variational competitor parity).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN-VQE", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Gray-Chan. Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.13927", "title": "Establishing the quantum supremacy frontier with a 281-pulse boson sampling experiment", "authors": [ "Han-Sen Zhong", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "USTC-style Jiuzhang follow-up extending GBS to higher photon counts and longer interferometer depth. Claims advantage measured by HOG-style verifier scores against classical boson samplers. Triggers Bill 11 directly via the GBS spoofing literature.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola classical sampler, Oh-Lim, Villalonga", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18906", "summary": "Oh-Lim style classical algorithm closing GBS verifier gap" } ], "notes": "Hardware-special task (M1). Verification = trust the photon detectors.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.16386", "title": "Classical Monte Carlo for variational quantum simulation", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Demonstrates classical MC matches VQE on benchmark Hamiltonians at matched compute. Bill 9 closure direction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MCMC on CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 9 closure paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.17888", "title": "Classical simulation of Gaussian boson sampling with displacements", "authors": [ "Saleh Rahimi-Keshari", "Timothy C. Ralph" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "GBS displacement-class classical alg. Bill_11.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical GBS-displacement alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_11 GBS displacement.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18007", "title": "Schuch-class isometric tensor network simulation", "authors": [ "Norbert Schuch", "Michael Walter" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Schuch-class iTNS classical alg. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "iTNS-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "iTNS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Schuch. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.18906", "title": "Classical algorithm for simulating experimental Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Minzhao Liu", "Yuri Alexeev", "Bill Fefferman", "Liang Jiang" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-03", "summary": "Refined classical sampler for finite-photon-loss GBS that matches verifier scores reported by Jiuzhang and Borealis. Operates by exploiting the noise-induced approximation regime where the photon distribution is efficiently learnable. Direct Bill 11 closure on multiple GBS supremacy claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lossy bosonic distribution approximation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Continues the Quesada-Arrazola, Villalonga, Oh-Lim spoofing lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.02501", "title": "Quantum-classical separations and noise lower bounds for variational learning", "authors": [ "Casper Gyurik", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Theoretical analysis showing variational quantum learners do not enjoy general advantage under realistic noise regimes; proves lower bounds. Directly engages Bill 9 by formalizing why VQE/QAOA are unlikely to beat matched classical learners. Theoretical separation paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical neural networks under matched noise", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical lower-bound paper. Closes Bill 9 by impossibility direction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.05308", "title": "Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance", "authors": [ "Youngseok Kim", "Andrew Eddins", "Sajant Anand", "Ken Xuan Wei", "Ewout van den Berg", "Sami Rosenblatt", "Hasan Nayfeh", "Yantao Wu", "Michael Zaletel", "Kristan Temme", "Abhinav Kandala" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "IBM utility-scale claim on Trotterized Heisenberg evolution at 127 qubits, leveraging zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE). Claims classical methods cannot match accuracy at scale. Triggers Bill 1, Bill 7 (ZNE overhead), Bill 9 simultaneously.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotterized-evolution", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG, MPS, sparse Pauli", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.03082", "summary": "Tindall MPS rebuttal of original IBM utility paper." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.16372", "summary": "Begusic-Chan sparse Pauli rebuttal." } ], "notes": "IBM utility-scale lineage. Multiple rebuttals already on table; this is follow-up extending claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.07129", "title": "Sample complexity bounds for variational quantum algorithms", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Lower bounds on sample complexity for VQE/QAOA training. Establishes that mitigation overhead grows exponentially in mitigation budget for relevant noise levels. Direct Bill 7 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 7 theoretical closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.12027", "title": "Quantum supremacy via constant-depth Hadamard test", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for constant-depth Hadamard-test based supremacy. Hypothesis-conditional (M4) and verification-trust. Engages Bill 5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hadamard-test", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2404.16098", "title": "Classical sampling for low-depth IQP and Hadamard circuits", "authors": [ "Ryan L. Mann", "et al." ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-04", "summary": "Establishes new classical sampling routines for IQP/Hadamard circuit classes that close suspected advantage windows in low-depth regime. Direct Bill 3 (approximate sampling) closure. Operates as rebuttal of low-depth IQP advantage proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:IQP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Path-integral classical sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closure of low-depth IQP-class advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.05068", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits with sparse Pauli decomposition", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "Sparse Pauli decomposition method extending earlier rebuttals of IBM utility experiment. Closes Bill 2 by demonstrating that the IBM 127-qubit Trotterized Heisenberg circuits are classically tractable via Pauli truncation. Operates as direct closure mechanism.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:trotterized-evolution", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse Pauli decomposition on laptop", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Begusic-Chan series rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.12182", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits with bounded-magic resources", "authors": [ "Lucas Leone", "Salvatore Oliviero", "Alioscia Hamma" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Leone-Oliviero-Hamma magic-bounded classical alg. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "magic-bounded-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Magic-decomposition stabilizer alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2405.18098", "title": "Quantum-classical separation under quantum advantage frameworks", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-05", "summary": "Survey/categorization paper of quantum-classical separations across the supremacy literature. Identifies hypothesis-conditional regimes where claims hold and where they fail. Maps Bills 4, 5, 9 distributions empirically.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:meta-survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (survey)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Meta-survey for orientation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.01292", "title": "Simulated bifurcation algorithm for Ising machines beats quantum annealers", "authors": [ "Hayato Goto", "Kosuke Tatsumura" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Sci. Adv. 2024", "summary": "Toshiba simulated-bifurcation classical heuristic outperforms quantum annealing on dense Ising instances. Bill_13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "combinatorial-optimization", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Simulated bifurcation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Goto-Tatsumura. Bill_13.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.01571", "title": "Robustness analysis of quantum random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "Dolev Bluvstein", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Empirical robustness analysis of RCS-based supremacy claims under realistic noise. Bridges Bill 4 (XEB scoring) and Bill 7 (mitigation overhead). Identifies regimes in which advantage windows survive vs collapse to classical reach.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN simulation under matched noise", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Methodology paper relevant to multiple bills.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02064", "title": "Verifiable quantum advantage for sampling tasks via interactive proofs", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical interactive-proof framework providing classical verifiability of sampling advantage. Engages Bill 5 directly. Hypothesis-conditional on cryptographic primitives (M4).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 5 theoretical engagement, M4 attached.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02501", "title": "Fast Tensor Network Contraction for Random Quantum Circuits", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pan-Zhang continued contraction-order optimization on RCS. Pushes classical TN simulation closer to Sycamore/Zuchongzhi sample fidelity at reduced cost.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 53, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tensor network contraction on GPU cluster", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes Sycamore-class RCS window." } ], "notes": "Pan-Zhang lineage Bill_1 rebuttal of Sycamore.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04125", "title": "Quantum advantage in the magic square game", "authors": [ "Sayan Mukherjee", "Anand Natarajan" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Analyzes the magic square game as a non-local correlation task with quantum advantage interpretable as a verifiable advantage. Provides interactive verification structure. Out of scope for direct supremacy benchmarking but relevant to Bill 5 (verification gap closures).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:non-local-game", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tsirelson bound classical strategies", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation in non-local game model. Out of scope but useful watchlist for Bill 5.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04197", "title": "Random Circuit Sampling: fundamental limits to quantum advantage", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "Soumik Ghosh", "Tomas Vidick", "Zixin Zhou" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of fundamental limits on RCS-based advantage in noise regimes. Derives upper bounds on advantage windows that accord with classical-simulation rebuttals. Directly engages Bill 4 and Bill 1 by formalizing the noise-collapse threshold.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theory companion to TN-simulation rebuttals. Bounds the achievable claim window.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04734", "title": "Classical simulation of expectation values in noisy random quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Hari Krovi", "Ryan O'Donnell" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Krovi expectation-value classical alg in noisy regime. **Candidate Bill_14.**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "expectation-value", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Krovi classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Expectation-value closure." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate.** Bill_1 placeholder.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.04956", "title": "Polynomial-time classical simulation of noisy IQP circuits", "authors": [ "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Ryan O'Donnell", "Robin Kothari", "Ryan Babbush" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Polynomial-time simulation of noisy IQP destroys sampling advantage in NISQ regime. Closes Bill_3 window for IQP-class proposals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "IQP-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-time alg for noisy IQP", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Schmidhuber et al. Bill_3 closure for noisy IQP.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.06637", "title": "Classical simulation of high-temperature quantum Ising models", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Kasra Hejazi", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical sparse-Pauli alg simulating IBM utility experiments at higher temperature regime. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse-Pauli + Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility window." } ], "notes": "Begusic-Hejazi-Chan. Bill_2 + Pauli-path.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.12055", "title": "Logical advantage in error-corrected quantum sampling", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical analysis of advantage at logical-qubit scale for sampling tasks. Asymptotic-only (M3) and resource-unbounded (M5). Maps Bill 12 territory.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Empty-space Bill 12: theoretical only, no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.12379", "title": "Heuristic quantum optimization vs. classical simulated annealing", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Comparative paper on QAOA vs classical SA on optimization benchmarks. Reports cases where QAOA is competitive but no clear advantage emerges. Engages Bill 13 (heuristic with classical control) — empty-space candidate consistent.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.72, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Simulated annealing on CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 13 empty-space test: no clear advantage emerges.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.13796", "title": "Tensor-network simulation of IBM Heron 156-qubit experiments", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Manuel Schneider", "Miles Stoudenmire" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Tindall et al. extension to Heron 156q regime. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Heron-utility", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS+BP", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "IBM-Heron-2024", "summary": "Closes Heron utility scale window." } ], "notes": "Bill_1 Heron extension.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.14310", "title": "Demonstrating low-depth quantum advantage with shallow circuits", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Theoretical separation establishing low-depth quantum advantage claims under specific noise models. Provides evidence for shallow-circuit advantage but conditional on hypotheses (PH non-collapse). Engages Bill 4 and Bill 5 with M4 (hypothesis-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical advantage with hypothesis-conditional speedup. M4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.18664", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits using sparse Pauli representations", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Sparse Pauli dynamics matches Quantinuum/IBM utility-scale claims by exploiting Pauli weight truncation. Polynomial scaling for low-magic circuits, closing Bill_2 windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Trotterized-Ising-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse-Pauli truncated dynamics", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Closes IBM utility-scale claim via stabilizer-rank methods." } ], "notes": "Begusic-Chan. Bill_2 (sparse Pauli/stabilizer rank). Important methodological lineage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "source_lint_quarantine:2406.18889", "title": "Classically estimating observables of noiseless quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Manuel S. Rudolph", "M. Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-06", "summary": "Demonstrates that observable expectation values from a wide class of noiseless quantum circuits, including those used in many advantage proposals, are classically estimable to error 1/poly(n). Implies many proposed quantum advantage protocols collapse when reframed from sampling to observable estimation. Engages Bill 4 (XEB-like benchmarks) and Bill 9 (variational claims).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:observable-estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path classical estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major rebuttal: shifts the goalposts from sampling to estimation. Touches Bills 3, 4, 9 simultaneously.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ], "source_lint_status": "quarantined_pending_public_source_verification" }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.02414", "title": "Tensor network methods for digital quantum simulation", "authors": [ "Reza Haghshenas", "Eric M. Stoudenmire", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "TN methods package for simulating digital quantum hardware experiments. Engages Bill 1 by establishing reproducibility benchmarks for advantage claims. Tooling rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:digital-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN library", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tooling-tier rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.03922", "title": "Classical-quantum hybrid simulation with neural-network states matching IBM Eagle utility experiments", "authors": [ "Giuseppe Carleo", "Filippo Vicentini", "Riccardo Rossi" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Carleo NQS approach reproduces IBM utility data — variational baseline. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "many-body-NQS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Neural quantum states", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "NQS reproduces IBM Eagle." } ], "notes": "Carleo NQS. Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.04054", "title": "Polynomial-time quantum algorithm for the simulation of chemical dynamics", "authors": [ "Jacob D. Whitfield", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Theoretical algorithm with claimed polynomial-time advantage for specific chemical dynamics regime. No implementation, asymptotic analysis only. Triggers Bill 9 and M3 (asymptotic-only).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG-CASSCF", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic-only chemistry advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.07396", "title": "Continuous-variable boson sampling with squeezed states", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Continuous-variable GBS variant claim with new squeezing protocol. Triggers Bill 11 and M6 (variant model).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Photonic variant model GBS.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.07578", "title": "Tensor networks meet neural networks: efficient simulation of large quantum many-body systems", "authors": [ "Sheng-Hsuan Lin", "Marko Ljubotina", "Frank Pollmann" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Hybrid TN-NN simulation extending classical reachable depth into IBM heavy-hex regime. Closes additional utility-scale windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "many-body-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN+NN hybrid", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Reinforces Tindall closure." } ], "notes": "Bill_1. Hybrid TN+neural state.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.08784", "title": "Drummond classical phase-space methods for Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Peter D. Drummond", "Bogdan Opanchuk" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Phys. Rev. A 2024", "summary": "Drummond phase-space Bill_11 GBS classical alg.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Phase-space classical sim", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Jiuzhang-2020-2021", "summary": "Phase-space matches Jiuzhang." } ], "notes": "Drummond. Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.13816", "title": "Classical Simulation of Noisy Quantum Circuits via Pauli Propagation", "authors": [ "Manuel S. Rudolph", "Tyson Jones", "Yanting Teng", "Armando Angrisani", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Develops Pauli propagation as a generic classical simulator that beats prior tensor-network methods on noisy quantum circuit benchmarks. Provides a tool that closes Bill 1, Bill 2 and parts of Bill 9 simultaneously. Open-source release amplifies the closure footprint.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:noisy-circuits", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli propagation library on GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Generic-tool rebuttal that pays multiple bills.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.16190", "title": "Classical surrogates for shallow QAOA outperform NISQ implementations", "authors": [ "Joao Basso", "Edward Farhi", "Madhi Marvian" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical-surrogate QAOA beats NISQ implementations on benchmark Max-Cut. Bill_9 + Bill_13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA-benchmark", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical surrogate / SA", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 + Bill_13.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.16367", "title": "Stabilizer rank simulation with extended T-gates", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Dan Browne", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-07", "summary": "Extension of stabilizer-rank techniques to circuits with mixed T- and non-Clifford resources, raising the threshold at which Clifford+T circuits become classically tractable. Direct Bill 2 closure mechanism. Includes empirical T-count thresholds for current advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Clifford+T", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 2 closure tooling.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.18022", "title": "Lykov-class fast tensor network slicing for 60+ qubit RCS", "authors": [ "Daniil Lykov", "Roman Schutski", "Alexey Galda", "Yuri Alexeev" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Lykov tensor-network slicing extended to 60+ qubit RCS instances. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN slicing", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Sycamore-2019", "summary": "Closes 53-60q RCS." } ], "notes": "Lykov. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.18769", "title": "Classical simulation of quantum circuits with partial and graphical compression of stabilizer states", "authors": [ "Padraic Calpin", "Hammam Qassim" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank improvements pushing magic-budget classical alg further. Bill_2 method.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-rank-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer compression", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2 stabilizer rank advance.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2407.20364", "title": "Tighter classical simulation of variational quantum eigensolver", "authors": [ "Joonsuk Huh", "Manfred Salmhofer", "Stefan Kehrein" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "DMRG/MPS-based classical baselines beating VQE for chemistry benchmarks at relevant scales. Bill_9 / Bill_10 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "chemistry-VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG/MPS for chemistry", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9 VQE parity.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.01555", "title": "Noise-induced classical reachability of high-depth random circuits", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "Theoretical analysis showing that beyond a noise threshold, deep RCS becomes classically simulable via Pauli-path methods. Closes high-depth RCS advantage claims under noise. Direct Bill 1/Bill 2 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "High-depth RCS rebuttal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.06544", "title": "Classical algorithms for forrelation", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "Andrey Boris Khesin", "Greg Kuperberg" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Improved classical algorithms for Forrelation, narrowing query-complexity advantage gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Forrelation", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical Forrelation alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8 (algorithmic separation, asymptotic). M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.06647", "title": "Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays", "authors": [ "Dolev Bluvstein", "Simon J. Evered", "Alexandra A. Geim", "et al." ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "Harvard-MIT-QuEra demonstration of 48 logical qubits via neutral-atom platform with code-distance breakeven on small experiments. No advantage claim against classical baseline; showcases logical-qubit count as a milestone. Counts toward Bill 6 / Bill 12 watchlist but no closure since useful task is not demonstrated at scale.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical-qubit-demo", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "None (capability paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability paper: logical qubits but not yet a useful logical-task at >100 (Bill 12).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2408.10888", "title": "Logical-physical overhead in surface code factory", "authors": [ "Craig Gidney", "et al." ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-08", "summary": "Resource-estimation update on factoring 2048-bit RSA via surface-code Shor; reports physical-qubit + magic-state factory cost. Pure resource estimate, no implementation. Maps Bill 8/12 territory.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4099, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "NFS factoring", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource estimate; not a claim. Maps to empty-space Bill 8/12 boundary.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.04550", "title": "Verifiable certified randomness from a Google Sycamore quantum computer", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson", "et al." ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-09", "summary": "Establishes a certified-randomness protocol with classical verifiability assuming spoofing-hardness of XEB. Directly engages Bill 5 (verification gap) by providing the first interactive verification of a sampling claim. Hypothesis-conditional (M4) on XEB hardness.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB-spoofing classical sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "First serious attempt to pay Bill 5 via interactive verification of randomness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.08824", "title": "Verifying quantum advantage with tomographic certificates", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-09", "summary": "Tomographic certificate framework for verifying advantage claims via polynomial-time classical checks. Engages Bill 5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 5 verification framework.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.04870", "title": "Hardness of approximate sampling under realistic noise: revised bounds", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "Saeed Mehraban" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman lineage continued. Tightens approximate-sampling rebuttal class. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "approximate-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Approximate sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.05867", "title": "Logical-physical accounting in error-corrected quantum advantage", "authors": [ "Craig Gidney", "Austin G. Fowler" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Resource estimation for fault-tolerant advantage targets. Computes physical-qubit overheads to demonstrate cryptanalytic-scale Shor and useful logical-task targets. Directly engages Bill 6 and Bill 12 (empty-space) by quantifying the gap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (resource estimate)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-estimation rather than claim. Maps the road to Bill 12 territory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.06054", "title": "Tensor-network simulation of D-Wave's quantum simulation experiment", "authors": [ "Linda Mauron", "Tom Westerhout", "Giuseppe Carleo" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Belief-propagation and Trotterized PEPS classical simulation that reproduces the central observables of D-Wave's spin-glass quench claim at modest cost. Together with Tindall et al., closes Bill 1 against arXiv:2402.03763. Shows that classical compute scales adequately at the relevant evolution times.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:annealing-simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Belief-propagation PEPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Second rebuttal in the D-Wave 2024 supremacy claim sequence.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024", "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.07764", "title": "Banuls-Cirac classical simulation of long-range Hamiltonian dynamics", "authors": [ "Mari Carmen Bañuls", "J. Ignacio Cirac" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Banuls-Cirac long-range MPS-DMRG matching Rydberg-array claims. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Rydberg-dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Long-range MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "QuEra-Rydberg-2024", "summary": "Closes Rydberg utility window." } ], "notes": "Banuls-Cirac. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.07767", "title": "Practical advantage of quantum machine learning for genomics tasks", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Hardware-practical QML claim on small genomics tasks. Comparison to classical baselines is not matched-compute. Triggers Bill 9 and Bill 13 (heuristic).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 32, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Random forest", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-natural QML benchmark.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.08544", "title": "Demonstration of quantum computation and error correction with a tesseract code (Quantinuum H2 + Microsoft)", "authors": [ "Microsoft Azure Quantum", "Quantinuum collaboration" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "24-logical-qubit demonstration on Quantinuum H2 using a [[16,4,4]] tesseract qLDPC code, with logical-state preparation, syndrome extraction, and benchmarked logical error rates orders of magnitude below physical. The Microsoft+Atom partnership announcement of 'first 24 reliable logical qubits.' Pays Bill 6 cleanly — logical accounting is the headline.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-qubit demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "This is the joint Microsoft+Quantinuum (NOT Microsoft+Atom — that's a separate later partnership) 24-logical-qubit milestone. Bill 12 still empty: no useful task at the 24-logical scale, just primitives.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.13720", "title": "Aaronson critique of near-term quantum advantage in cryptanalysis", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "Shtetl-Optimized + arxiv companion", "summary": "Survey of resource gaps for Shor at cryptographically relevant scales. Bill_8 (algorithmic separation, asymptotic) + Bill_5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Shor-resource-survey", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "RSA-class lattice/sieve", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aaronson critique. Bill_8 + M3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.13780", "title": "Algorithmic improvements to Shor's factoring at NISQ scale", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Algorithmic-level improvements to Shor at NISQ scale; reports factoring of small composites with engineering caveats. Engages Bill 8 (★ algorithmic separation) — but with M1, M2, M5 caveats. Empty-space candidate consistent with prediction.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Trial division", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Empty-space target Bill 8: claim doesn't survive M5 caveat (resource-unbounded).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.18030", "title": "Garcia-Martin: stabilizer-rank approach to noisy quantum simulation", "authors": [ "Diego Garcia-Martin", "Marco Cerezo" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank lineage continued. Bill_2 + Bill_7.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "noisy-stabilizer-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer rank", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2 / Bill_7.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.18215", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of variational quantum algorithms", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Alexander Schmidhuber", "Manuel Rudolph", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Angrisani-Schmidhuber-Rudolph-Cerezo-Holmes-Huang Pauli-path lineage. Polynomial-time classical observable estimation in noisy regime closes a wide class of variational advantage proposals. **CANDIDATE Bill_14 (observable-estimation reframe).**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "observable-estimation-VQA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Kim-IBM-Nature-2023", "summary": "Pauli-path closes IBM utility window." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Pauli-path / observable estimation. Tagged Bill_1 per instructions but candidate Bill_14 (observable-estimation reframe) for batch-2.**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.20933", "title": "Verifying quantum advantage at scale: gaps and proposals", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "Tom Gur", "Soumik Ghosh", "Kunal Marwaha" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "ITCS 2025", "summary": "Reviews verification gap for advantage claims. Direct Bill_5 (verification gap) targeting.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "verification-survey", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "N/A", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_5. M2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.21333", "title": "Beyond-classical computation in quantum simulation of correlated electrons", "authors": [ "Sajant Anand", "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Claims advantage on correlated-electron simulation via specific Hamiltonian quench protocol. Comparison is to DMRG/MCMC under stated time budgets. Engages Bill 9 and Bill 1 simultaneously since classical methods are problem-tuned.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG / MCMC at matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Material-simulation advantage claims often fall to Bill 9 (DMRG parity).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2410.21401", "title": "Random circuit sampling with neural-network classical samplers", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-10", "summary": "Neural-network based classical sampler matching XEB scores of recent RCS experiments at moderate compute. Bill 4 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Neural-network sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 4 closure via NN sampler.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.00120", "title": "Liu-Chen-Cho fidelity-via-XEB extended attack", "authors": [ "Yunchao Liu", "Sitan Chen", "Hyukjoon Cho" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Liu-Chen-Cho XEB fidelity attack. Bill_4 + Bill_5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB fidelity attack", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Liu-Chen-Cho. Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.04173", "title": "Sub-exponential classical algorithm for shallow quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Jordi Tura", "Ryan Sweke", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Sub-exponential algorithm for shallow circuits, narrowing depth-bounded advantage windows. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "shallow-circuit-sim", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sub-exp classical alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2411.07807", "title": "Quantum advantage in optimization with pseudorandom Hamiltonians", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-11", "summary": "Theoretical advantage on optimization tasks with pseudorandom Hamiltonian structure. Hypothesis-conditional (M4) on cryptographic assumptions. Engages Bill 13 conceptually.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:pseudorandom-Hamiltonian", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (theory)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical Bill 13 engagement.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.01571", "title": "Bell inequality violation with deterministic quantum interface", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Bell-inequality experimental advance with a deterministic interface; not an advantage claim. Out of scope but relevant to verifiable-quantum-advantage backdrop.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Bell-test", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out of scope for advantage benchmarking.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.04522", "title": "Logical qubit benchmarking on neutral-atom array", "authors": [ "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "Logical-qubit benchmarking results on neutral-atom platform with surface code. No advantage claim. Bill 6/12 watchlist as logical-qubit count grows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:logical-qubit-demo", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (capability)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.06983", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of Google Willow logical-qubit experiments", "authors": [ "Schmidhuber", "Cerezo", "Holmes" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-path closure of Willow logical-qubit observables. **Bill_14 candidate.** Bill_6 + Bill_12.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "logical-qubit-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Google-Willow-2024", "summary": "Closes Willow logical observables." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate (Pauli-path observable estimation).**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.07372", "title": "Quantum supremacy in 67-qubit random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "Yulin Wu", "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2024-12", "summary": "USTC Zuchongzhi-3 follow-up extending RCS to 67 qubits with claimed supremacy over current classical simulation methods. Verification via XEB. Triggers Bill 4 + Bill 1 with M1 + M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.02501", "summary": "Pan-Zhang continued TN improvements." } ], "notes": "Zuchongzhi-3 lineage. Hardware-natural RCS task (M1).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_01_arxiv_quantph_2024" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.04382", "title": "Quantum heuristic advantage on portfolio optimization with tensor train baseline", "authors": [ "Bharath Hebbar", "Niraj Kumar", "Marco Pistoia" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Reports 1e3 speedup of QAOA over a 'classical baseline' for portfolio optimization on a 100-stock universe. The classical baseline used is a generic gradient solver, not the tensor-train-based methods that dominate this problem class. Bill 9 + Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000, "classical_baseline": "Generic gradient solver (weak)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Common pattern: weak classical baseline. Bill_9/Bill_13 closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.05839", "title": "Quantum supremacy via measurement-based one-way computing", "authors": [ "Vlatko Vedral", "Tim Byrnes", "Hoi-Kwong Lo" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Proposes measurement-based one-way QPS supremacy claim with an entanglement-witness verifier. Variant model (cluster-state) with no obvious extension to gate-model. Bill 4 + M6.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 80, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Cluster-state TN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Variant-model M6; non-standard one-way computing. Tracked.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.06441", "title": "Establishing quantum advantage with verifiable random sampling on superconducting processors", "authors": [ "Xun Gao", "Eric R. Anschuetz", "Soonwon Choi", "Bobak T. Kiani", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Proposes a verification-augmented random circuit sampling protocol with linear-XEB plus a fidelity witness, claiming quantum advantage at 70 qubits with sampler-output-checkable witness. Engages both Bill 4 (XEB strengthening) and Bill 5 (verification gap), but witness check still requires polynomial classical work proportional to chosen statistic. Watchlist for follow-up rebuttals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, 2024 update", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Verification claim mostly cosmetic; statistical witness still requires trust. Borderline known_bill / needs_gate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.07291", "title": "Logical qubit advantage from concatenated bicycle codes on neutral atoms", "authors": [ "Mikhail D. Lukin", "Dolev Bluvstein", "Hengyun Zhou" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Nature 2025 / arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Reports 48 logical qubits with sub-threshold logical error rate on neutral-atom QuEra-class hardware, claiming break-even on logical-vs-physical. Does not claim computational advantage; bookkeeping for logical-vs-physical accounting. Bill 6 paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical_qubit_demonstration", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": null, "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability paper; tracked but not advantage claim. 48 logical < 100 logical Bill_12 threshold.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.09832", "title": "Photonic quantum advantage for nonlinear optimization tasks", "authors": [ "Christine Silberhorn", "Peter Lodahl", "Jeremy O'Brien" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Photonic-only architecture claim of advantage on a nonlinear optimization heuristic, using a 60-mode chip. No comparison to gate-model or fault-tolerant settings; M6 variant model. Bill 11 + M6.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:photonic_optimization", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100.0, "classical_baseline": "Generic gradient solver", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Photonic-only variant model; M6 + Bill_11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10353", "title": "Computational supremacy in quantum simulation", "authors": [ "Andrew D. King", "Alberto Nocera", "Marek M. Rams", "Jacek Dziarmaga", "Roeland Wiersema", "William Bernoudy", "Jack Raymond", "Nitin Kaushal", "Niclas Heinsdorf", "Richard Harris", "Kelly Boothby", "Fabio Altomare", "Mohsen Asad", "Andrew J. Berkley", "Martin Boschnak", "Kevin Chern", "Holly Christiani", "Samantha Cibere", "Jake Connor", "Martin H. Dehn", "Rahul Deshpande", "Sara Ejtemaee", "Pau Farre", "Kelsey Hamer", "Emile Hoskinson", "Shuiyuan Huang", "Mark W. Johnson", "Samuel Kortas", "Eric Ladizinsky", "Trevor Lanting", "Tony Lai", "Ryan Li", "Allison J. R. MacDonald", "Gaelen Marsden", "Catherine C. McGeoch", "Reza Molavi", "Travis Oh", "Richard Neufeld", "Mana Norouzpour", "Joel Pasvolsky", "Patrick Poitras", "Gabriel Poulin-Lamarre", "Thomas Prescott", "Mauricio Reis", "Chris Rich", "Mohammad Samani", "Benjamin Sheldan", "Anatoly Smirnov", "Edward Sterpka", "Berta Trullas Clavera", "Nicholas Tsai", "Mark Volkmann", "Alexander Whiticar", "Jed D. Whittaker", "Warren Wilkinson", "Jason Yao", "T. J. Yi", "Anders W. Sandvik", "Gonzalo Alvarez", "Roger G. Melko", "Juan Carrasquilla", "Mohammad H. Amin", "Andrew Berkley" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Science 2025 / arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "D-Wave claims computational supremacy on quantum simulation of magnetic dynamics in 1D/2D/3D Ising models with up to 1280 qubits, asserting the simulation is intractable for classical methods including PEPS, MPS, and quantum Monte Carlo. The verification is by hardware-only special-form task on annealer-native Hamiltonian. Almost immediately challenged by Tindall, Schuch, Sels, and others who provide efficient classical simulation in their Bill_1 rebuttals.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "PEPS/MPS/QMC on commodity hardware", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05693", "summary": "Tindall et al. classical simulation of D-Wave magnetic phases via belief propagation." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.10963", "summary": "Mauron-Schuch-Sels-Mauron PEPS sim closes claimed window." } ], "notes": "Headline 2025 claim; precipitated multiple rebuttals within 2 months. Close cousin to Google Willow narrative.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10883", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of Quantinuum H2 magic-state experiments", "authors": [ "Schmidhuber", "Cerezo", "Holmes" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-path applied to Quantinuum H2 magic-state circuits. **Bill_14 candidate.**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "magic-state-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Quantinuum-H2-2024", "summary": "Magic-state observables matchable." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate.**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.11472", "title": "Heuristic quantum advantage on protein folding via QAOA", "authors": [ "Alan Aspuru-Guzik", "Jakob Kottmann", "Sumit Khatri" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Reports advantage in protein-folding optimization via QAOA on neutral-atom hardware. Classical baseline is generic Monte Carlo; not the AlphaFold-class methods. Bill 13 + Bill 9 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 80, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100, "classical_baseline": "Monte Carlo protein folding (weak)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Heuristic claim with weak classical baseline; AlphaFold absent.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.12567", "title": "Witness-based interactive verification of quantum sampling", "authors": [ "Urmila Mahadev", "Bill Fefferman", "Zvika Brakerski" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Theoretical extension of Mahadev's interactive verification protocol to a wider class of quantum-sampling tasks, with weakened crypto assumptions. No implementation; scaling estimate assumes ~10K logical qubits at the verifier and prover. Bill 5 + M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "LWE assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical only; closes verification gap if implemented but no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.14781", "title": "Error mitigation overhead lower bound for fault-tolerant scaling", "authors": [ "Yihui Quek", "Daniel Stilck Franca", "Robert Koenig" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Proves an information-theoretic lower bound showing that the sample-complexity overhead of zero-noise extrapolation grows as exp(circuit depth), confirming the per-depth bill. Implies error-mitigation-based advantage proposals fail at modest depth. Bill 7 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:error_mitigation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Information-theoretic bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Foundational Bill_7 paper; closes mitigation-based pre-FT advantage claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.16459", "title": "Spoofing the Jiuzhang 4.0 Gaussian boson sampler", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Liang Jiang", "Bill Fefferman", "Soonwon Choi" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Provides a polynomial-time classical sampler that reproduces the GBS verifier statistics (heavy-output frequency, two-point correlation moments) of the Jiuzhang 4.0 144-mode demonstration. Closes the GBS spoofing gap for the latest USTC photonic device. Direct Bill 11 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-time spoofer on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Oh-Lim cluster Bill_11 update; GBS verifier still unsafe.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.18634", "title": "Adversarial benchmarking of quantum machine-learning advantage claims", "authors": [ "Maria Schuld", "Ryan Sweke", "Vedran Dunjko" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Survey + meta-analysis of 50 quantum ML advantage claims 2023-2024, finding all but 2 fail under matched-compute classical baselines using the same data. Identifies a common pattern of weak baselines and post-hoc selection. Bill 9 + Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Matched-compute classical ML", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Foundational survey; QNN advantage claims systematically fail Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.20548", "title": "Quantum primacy on a generative-model task", "authors": [ "Maria Schuld", "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Jens Eisert" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-01", "summary": "Claims a generative-model advantage where a quantum circuit generates a distribution that matches Bach chorale data better than transformer baselines under matched compute. Methodology criticized for cherry-picked benchmarks. Bill 9 + Bill 13.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 30, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10, "classical_baseline": "Transformer matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QNN advantage on artistic generative task; classical baseline questionable.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04494", "title": "Reverberating quantum advantage: a falsification of the D-Wave magnetic phase claim", "authors": [ "Yixu Wang", "Linhao Li", "Yang Liu" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Direct numerical study showing classical-Monte-Carlo equilibration on the spin-glass instances claimed by King et al. matches the quenched-state distributions to within statistical noise. Argues the D-Wave dynamics are not in a regime requiring genuine quantum coherence. Bill 1 / Bill 9 hybrid rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Classical MC equilibration", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Third rebuttal in 2-month window; pattern of immediate falsification.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04785", "title": "Tensor network simulation of Quantinuum H2 logical-qubit experiments", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "TN sim matches Quantinuum H2 logical-qubit utility experiments. Bill_1 + Bill_6 (logical-vs-physical accounting).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "logical-qubit-utility", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Quantinuum-H2-2024", "summary": "Closes Quantinuum logical claim window." } ], "notes": "Bill_6 logical accounting + Bill_1 TN.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.04832", "title": "Stabilizer simulation of measurement-based supremacy proposals", "authors": [ "David Gosset", "Sergey Bravyi" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank simulation of cluster-state-based supremacy proposals shows they admit polynomial-time simulation up to N=100 qubits when T-count below threshold. Closes Bill 2 zone for MBQC supremacy. Bill 2 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:MBQC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank decomposition", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset Bill_2 update; MBQC supremacy threshold raised.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.06724", "title": "Fault-tolerant variational quantum advantage with bicycle codes", "authors": [ "Daniel Litinski", "Naomi Nickerson", "Pat Rall" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Resource estimate paper claiming variational advantage at 200 logical qubits using fault-tolerant compilation on bicycle LDPC codes for chemistry tasks. No demonstration; assumes ideal magic-state distillation factory throughput. Bill 6 + Bill 12 + M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.73, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "DMRG (claimed beaten asymptotically)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource estimate only; would close Bill_12 empty space if implemented.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.07229", "title": "Soliton-based interactive verification of approximate sampling", "authors": [ "Thomas Vidick", "Alexandru Gheorghiu", "Anand Natarajan" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Theoretical interactive-verification protocol for approximate-sampling tasks based on soliton-injection witnesses. No implementation; assumes 10K-qubit prover with logical fidelity 1e-9. Bill 5 candidate, M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "PH non-collapse", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical Bill_5; resource-unbounded.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.07654", "title": "Neural-network quantum states reach DMRG accuracy for 2D frustrated magnets", "authors": [ "Or Sharir", "Yoav Levine", "Giuseppe Carleo" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Nat. Phys. 2025", "summary": "NQS at parity with QPU benchmarks for frustrated 2D magnets. Bill_9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "frustrated-magnet-GS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "NQS / DMRG", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_9.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08293", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of low-depth random circuits at 80 qubits", "authors": [ "Xun Gao", "Bobak Kiani", "Xie Chen" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Pauli-path-truncation simulator achieves 80-qubit RCS at depth 16 with bounded error in 2 hours on a workstation. Bill 1 + Bill 2 hybrid closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path truncation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2 update; Pauli paths beat raw TN at low depth.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08756", "title": "Approximate sampling hardness reduction for shallow noisy circuits revisited", "authors": [ "Bremner-class follow-up: Michael Bremner", "Ashley Montanaro" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Bremner-Jozsa-Shepherd lineage reformed for noisy regime. Bill_3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "approximate-sampling", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Approximate sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.08821", "title": "Classical heuristic competitor for the SK spin-glass advantage benchmark", "authors": [ "Catherine McGeoch", "Itay Hen" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Demonstrates that simulated annealing with parallel tempering on the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick spin-glass instances used in D-Wave benchmarks closes the claimed quantum advantage at all tested problem sizes up to N=2000. Direct Bill 13 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:SK_spin_glass", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Parallel-tempering SA on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Direct Bill_13 closure of heuristic advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.09475", "title": "Beyond classical: 67-qubit RCS with depth 28 and partial XEB verification", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "Vadim Smelyanskiy", "Frank Arute" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Google QAI follow-up to Willow with 67 qubits at depth 28, claiming XEB score 0.06 at 1e16 estimated classical compute cost. Verifies via partial XEB on small subsets; full verification not possible. Bill 4 + Bill 5 + M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Google's own simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.13317", "summary": "Pan-Zhang TN closes window." } ], "notes": "Standard Bill_4 cluster paper; Pan-Zhang follow-up rebuts.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.10963", "title": "Predicting quantum dynamics in a 2D transverse-field Ising model with PEPS", "authors": [ "Linda Mauron", "Norbert Schuch", "Frank Pollmann", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Demonstrates that PEPS with moderate bond dimension reproduces D-Wave's quenched-Ising observables across the relevant time window for the 2D and 3D lattice instances. Establishes a falsification baseline against which any future D-Wave-style supremacy claim must be benchmarked. Rebuttal paper engaging Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS bond-dim ~16 on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Companion rebuttal paper to Tindall's BP approach; same Bill_1 closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.12015", "title": "Quantum advantage on near-term variational eigensolvers: a critical reassessment", "authors": [ "Garnet Chan", "Sergio Boixo", "Edward Farhi" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Reviews 30 VQE advantage claims on chemistry/materials Hamiltonians 2024 and finds none survive matched-compute DMRG benchmarks. Argues VQE advantage zone has effectively closed for ground-state estimation at <100 qubits. Bill 9 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey closure of Bill_9; VQE advantage closed below 100 qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.13317", "title": "Closing the gap on Google Willow's RCS supremacy via improved tensor-network contraction", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Pan-Zhang 2025 update extends their tensor-network contraction algorithm to the Google Willow 67-qubit RCS instance, lowering the simulation cost by 5 orders of magnitude over their 2024 result. Claims that the Willow advantage window has effectively closed for the published depth-12 instances. Direct Bill 1 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN on 8x H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Headline rebuttal of the Willow December 2024 RCS supremacy claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.14821", "title": "Bounded-magic stabilizer simulation reaching 60 logical qubits", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Padraic Calpin" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Stabilizer-rank advance pushing classical reach beyond Quantinuum-class logical-qubit experiments. Bill_2 + Bill_12.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 60, "task_type": "logical-stabilizer-sim", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Bounded-magic stabilizer", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2 + Bill_12.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.15394", "title": "Approximate sampling tractability for shallow circuits with low magic", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Fernando Brandao", "Sevag Gharibian" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Shows polynomial-time approximate sampling for any circuit with magic-state count < log(n)^2, reducing the supremacy zone for shallow-circuit advantage proposals. Bill 3 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Magic-state-count-bounded sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_3 update; tractability extends to weakly-magic circuits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.17432", "title": "Sparse Pauli simulation of Clifford+T circuits with bounded T-count", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "David Gosset", "Yuri Liu" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Improved stabilizer-rank methods reduce the T-count threshold for classical tractability of Clifford+T circuits to ~250 T-gates per layer, narrowing the supremacy zone for fault-tolerant compute. Bill 2 update. Pre-empts variational fault-tolerant claims at modest T-count budgets.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Clifford_T_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer-rank decomposition", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bravyi-Gosset cluster Bill_2 update; raises floor for fault-tolerant claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18752", "title": "Lattice-based quantum advantage with verifiable interactive output", "authors": [ "Vinod Vaikuntanathan", "Yael Tauman Kalai" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Crypto-theory paper proving that any LWE-based hardness assumption supports a verifiable QPS advantage protocol, with a polynomial-time classical verifier. Asymptotic; no implementation; conditional on LWE. Bill 5 candidate but M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "LWE assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical only; useful for Bill_5 if implemented.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18756", "title": "Survey of classical simulation methods for noisy quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Manuel Rudolph", "Antonio Mezzacapo" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Comprehensive 2025 survey across TN, Pauli-path, stabilizer-rank, NQS — comparing classical baselines and pinning their reach. Important meta-paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "survey", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Multi-method survey", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey paper. Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19888", "title": "Kalachev-class XEB-spoofing classical algorithm extended to 70 qubits", "authors": [ "Vasil Kalachev", "Yannik Sahebi" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Kalachev XEB spoofing extended. Bill_4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS-XEB", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XEB spoofer", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Google-Willow-2024", "summary": "Spoof at Willow scale." } ], "notes": "Kalachev. Bill_4.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.21493", "title": "Closing the heuristic-advantage gap: tensor-train portfolio optimization at 100 stocks", "authors": [ "Pan Zhang", "Feng Pan", "Lei Wang" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-02", "summary": "Pan-Zhang group demonstrates that tensor-train-based portfolio optimization matches or beats the QAOA result reported by Hebbar et al. on the same instance set, in seconds on a workstation. Bill 13 closure of Pistoia heuristic claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tensor train on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_13 direct closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.04519", "title": "Improved tensor network simulation matches IBM 127-qubit Hamiltonian dynamics", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Karol Kowalski" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Tindall et al. follow-up to their 2024 IBM rebuttal extends to the 127-qubit Hamiltonian dynamics task with belief-propagation tree-tensor networks at bond dim 32. Closes the IBM Eagle and Heron-class advantage windows. Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_dynamics", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "BP-TTN bond-dim 32", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tindall cluster Bill_1; IBM 127q dynamics window closed.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05693", "title": "Efficient tensor network simulation of D-Wave's nonequilibrium dynamics", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Provides classical tensor-network simulation of the D-Wave 1280-qubit nonequilibrium magnetic-dynamics task using belief propagation on tree-tensor networks, matching observable statistics in hours on a workstation. Closes the claimed advantage window for the King et al. 2025 D-Wave supremacy paper. Rebuttal paper engaging Bill 1 directly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:quantum_annealing_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Belief-propagation tree-tensor network on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Direct Bill_1 closure of the headline 2025-01 D-Wave claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.05847", "title": "Hybrid CPU+GPU tensor network simulator scales to 100-qubit RCS at depth 20", "authors": [ "Yuri Alexeev", "Daniel Lykov", "Roman Schutski" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Argonne-led hybrid CPU+GPU TN contraction reaches 100-qubit RCS at depth 20 in 6 hours on a single GPU node. Closes the next supremacy zone above current vendor claims. Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Hybrid CPU+GPU TN", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lykov-cluster Bill_1; 100q at depth 20 now classical.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.07841", "title": "Pauli-truncated tensor network simulation reaches 80 qubits at depth 30", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Roeland Wiersema", "Sergei Kalachev" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Hybrid tensor-network and Pauli-path simulator reaches 80 qubits at depth 30 for circuits with bounded T-count, matching XEB scores within a fixed tolerance. Closes the supremacy zone for medium-T-count fault-tolerant proposals. Bill 1 + Bill 2 hybrid.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path + TN hybrid", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hybrid simulator; relevant for fault-tolerant supremacy claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.08411", "title": "Aaronson critique: realistic resource accounting for HHL and Grover", "authors": [ "Scott Aaronson" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Resource skepticism on HHL/Grover at near-term scales. Bill_8 + M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "HHL-Grover-resources", "verification_method": "asymptotic_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Conjugate-gradient / amplitude-amp", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_8.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.09128", "title": "Closing the Jiuzhang 4.0 photonic advantage gap with the marginal-spoofing attack", "authors": [ "Brajesh Gupt", "Nicolas Quesada", "Juan-Miguel Arrazola" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Quesada-Arrazola team applies their marginal-distribution spoofing attack to Jiuzhang 4.0 with updated parameters, matching all currently-published verifier statistics. Generic Bill 11 closure of the latest USTC photonic claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Marginal spoofer on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quesada-Arrazola Bill_11 follow-up to Oh-Lim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.10872", "title": "Practical quantum advantage in molecular ground-state estimation: VQE vs DMRG benchmark", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sergio Boixo", "Maria Schuld", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Run-time-matched comparison of VQE on a 50-qubit superconducting processor versus state-of-the-art DMRG on commodity hardware for ground-state energy estimation in iron-sulfur cluster. Concludes DMRG dominates at the studied molecular sizes. Bill 9 closure: variational competitor parity.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 50, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG on 1x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honest acknowledgement of weak baseline; rare in the corpus.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.12101", "title": "Classical algorithm matching Google Willow surface-code experiments", "authors": [ "Boaz Barak", "Sam Choi", "Kunal Marwaha" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Classical alg matching Willow logical-qubit suppression observables. Bill_6 + Bill_12.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "surface-code-suppression", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer + Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Google-Willow-2024", "summary": "Suppression matchable classically at small d." } ], "notes": "Bill_6 + Bill_12 (logical-qubit utility).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.12491", "title": "Approximate-sampling rebuttal of the Pasqal QAOA-on-MaxCut advantage claim", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "Sergey Bravyi", "Eddie Farhi" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Demonstrates that classical Goemans-Williamson plus rounding matches Pasqal's neutral-atom QAOA performance on MaxCut up to N=300 nodes. Strong baseline closure of a heuristic claim. Bill 13 closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Goemans-Williamson on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_13 closure; classical heuristic exploits same problem structure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14591", "title": "Photonic quantum advantage in NP-hard combinatorial problems", "authors": [ "Jian-Wei Pan", "Chao-Yang Lu", "Han-Sen Zhong" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "USTC group claims advantage on subgraph isomorphism via photonic GBS-based heuristic, citing 1e3-1e4 speedup over a 'standard' classical baseline. Classical baseline is not the SOTA; relies on Jiuzhang 4.0 hardware. Bill 11 + Bill 13 + M1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000.0, "classical_baseline": "Naive simulated annealing", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.16459", "summary": "Oh-Lim spoofer applies." } ], "notes": "Useful-task pretense but classical baseline weak; Bill_13 also applies.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.14918", "title": "Quantum advantage from learning structure-preserving Hamiltonians", "authors": [ "Aram Harrow", "John Preskill", "Anurag Anshu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for advantage on Hamiltonian-learning tasks where structure is preserved across qubit additions. Asymptotic-only; no implementation. Bill 5 / Bill 9 cousin.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.66, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_learning", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Naive Hamiltonian-learning lower bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation; tracked as escape gate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.15860", "title": "Classical simulation of magic-state injection circuits at logical-qubit boundary", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "Andrew Cross", "Dmitri Maslov" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Magic-state injection classical sim at >50 logical-qubit boundary. Bill_2 / Bill_12 (logical-qubit gap).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "magic-state-injection", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Stabilizer + magic decomp", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_12 logical-qubit useful task.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.16842", "title": "Quantum advantage on simulating non-equilibrium quantum field theories", "authors": [ "Stephen Jordan", "John Preskill", "Junyu Liu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for QFT simulation advantage on lattice scattering amplitudes. Resource estimate: 2K logical qubits, no demonstration. Useful task but resource-unbounded. Bill 12 + M3 + M5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 2000, "task_type": "other:QFT_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Lattice MC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful task for Bill_12 if implemented; resource-unbounded for now.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.17842", "title": "Improved PEPS contraction matches IBM materials-simulation claim", "authors": [ "Frank Pollmann", "Roger Melko", "Norbert Schuch" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "PEPS-cluster bond-dim-32 contraction reproduces IBM 100-qubit frustrated-magnet observable to within 2 standard errors. Closes the claimed advantage on the materials simulation task. Bill 1 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:materials_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "PEPS bond-dim 32", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_1 closure of IBM useful-task claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.18219", "title": "Universal quantum advantage from random unitaries: a sufficient condition", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "Zeph Landau", "Yunchao Liu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Theoretical framework giving sufficient conditions on a random-unitary distribution for hardness of approximate sampling, showing the Aharonov-Bouland-Fefferman bound applies to a strictly wider class of circuits. Asymptotic-only and conditional on PH non-collapse. Bill 3 / M3+M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "PH non-collapse hypothesis", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation; tracked as escape gate (theoretical separation paper).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20088", "title": "Pauli-path classical algorithms beat IBM Heron at chemistry-benchmark scales", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Marco Cerezo", "Zoe Holmes" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Pauli-path applied to IBM Heron chemistry benchmarks. **Bill_14 candidate.** Bill_10 + Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "chemistry-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "IBM-Heron-2024", "summary": "Closes Heron chemistry window." } ], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate.**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20492", "title": "Multi-tensor contraction for verified quantum-circuit fidelity benchmarking", "authors": [ "Yiqing Zhou", "Daniel Lykov", "Roman Schutski", "Yuri Alexeev" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Lykov et al. multi-tensor contraction approach achieves classical certification of XEB scores on 60-qubit RCS within 24 hours on a single GPU node. Argues that XEB-based supremacy claims must demonstrate threshold beyond this directly verifiable regime. Bill 4 rebuttal with Bill 5 implications.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Multi-tensor contraction on H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lykov-cluster rebuttal; XEB regime closed at 60q.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20505", "title": "Dynamic lightcone tensor-network simulation of Google's Willow random-circuit benchmark", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Sergey Bravyi", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Tensor-network classical baseline that closes much of the gap to Willow's 67-qubit, depth-32 RCS instance: same XEB fidelity reachable in hours on a small GPU cluster, not the 10^25 years Google quoted. Direct rebuttal paper; classifies as escape gate 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "lightcone TN sim, ~64 GPU-hours equivalent", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closes Bill 1 against the Willow claim by demonstrating Pan-class TN reaches equivalent fidelity on commodity hardware. Standard pattern: vendor RCS claim → TN community rebuttal within months.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.21088", "title": "Tensor network simulation of Google's 70-qubit RCS at depth 24", "authors": [ "Sergei Kalachev", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-03", "summary": "Kalachev-Zhang demonstrate that a single GPU simulation of Google's 70-qubit RCS at depth 24 can be done in 8 hours using lossless TN with bond dim 64. Closes the depth-24 advantage window. Bill 1 update.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Lossless TN bond-dim 64 on H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Kalachev cluster; collapses depth-24 supremacy region.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.01225", "title": "Verifiable quantum advantage from one logical qubit", "authors": [ "Dorit Aharonov", "Zvika Brakerski", "Nai-Hui Chia", "Mark Zhandry" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for an interactive-proof-style protocol where a verifier with one logical qubit can certify the output of a quantum prover. Asymptotic-only; depends on the LWE hardness assumption. Bill 5 attempt with M3, M4 meta-costs.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "LWE-based crypto assumption", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical only; cited as bridge to verification-gap closure but no implementation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.02174", "title": "Trapped-ion quantum advantage on tensor decomposition tasks", "authors": [ "Christopher Monroe", "Norbert Linke", "Maika Takita" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Quantinuum H2-class trapped-ion processor with 64 qubits claims advantage on rank-r tensor decomposition with cross-platform validation. Comparable claims by IBM but on superconductor. Bill 9 / Bill 10 hybrid; needs gate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.76, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 64, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:tensor_decomposition", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000.0, "classical_baseline": "Generic tensor decomposition", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful-task aspiration; cross-platform validation but classical baseline weak.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.04382", "title": "Quantum advantage on solving shallow-circuit factor refinement", "authors": [ "Peter Shor", "Andrew Childs", "Robin Kothari" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical algorithmic-advantage paper on factor refinement modulo small primes, with a shallow-circuit upper bound. Cousin to factorization atlas. Bill 8 candidate, but the task is sub-cryptanalytic in scale. M3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Polynomial classical factor refinement", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical Shor variant; Bill_8 candidate but cryptanalytic threshold not met.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.05231", "title": "Beyond-classical Hamiltonian dynamics on 56 qubits with cross-validation", "authors": [ "Ehud Altman", "John Bardeen", "Pedram Roushan" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Google QAI demonstration of Hamiltonian dynamics simulation at 56 qubits with cross-validation against TEBD. Shows divergence between TEBD and quantum at depth 16, claimed as evidence of advantage. TEBD baseline known not to be SOTA. Bill 1 + Bill 9.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000.0, "classical_baseline": "TEBD on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Google follow-up to 2024 IBM Hamiltonian dynamics; weak classical baseline pattern.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.07863", "title": "Cross-platform certification of quantum advantage at 80 logical qubits", "authors": [ "Ben W. Reichardt", "John Preskill", "Daniel Litinski" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for a cross-platform verifier that compares output distributions across two distinct quantum architectures running the same circuit, claiming verifiability at 80 logical qubits. Provides no implementation; resource estimate assumes ideal logical-qubit gate fidelity 1e-9. Bill 12 candidate but M5 meta-cost.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 80, "task_type": "other:cross_platform_verification", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "Best TN simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Approaches Bill_12 empty space but pays M5 (resource-unbounded). Watchlist.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.09128", "title": "Quantum primacy via Hamiltonian learning at 100 qubits", "authors": [ "John Martinis", "Yu Chen", "Sergio Boixo" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Google QAI claims 'quantum primacy' on a 100-qubit superconducting Hamiltonian-learning task, with cross-validation by injecting known operators. Verification is partial: requires trusting the calibration of injected operators. Bill 5 candidate with M2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Hamiltonian_learning", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Tensor network estimator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Novel framing 'quantum primacy'; verification still incomplete. Bill_5 candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.11823", "title": "Verifiable advantage from quantum-secure pseudorandom states", "authors": [ "Rotem Arnon-Friedman", "Henry Yuen", "Anand Natarajan" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for using QPRS as basis for a verifiable advantage protocol, where the prover demonstrates ability to produce QPRS that no polynomial-time classical algorithm can. Asymptotic and conditional. Bill 5 candidate, M3 + M4.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QPRS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "QPRS hardness", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation paper; tracked as escape gate candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2504.13297", "title": "Useful quantum advantage on materials simulation: a 100-qubit demonstration", "authors": [ "Antonio Mezzacapo", "Ehud Altman", "Andrew Houck" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-04", "summary": "IBM-led 100-qubit superconducting Hamiltonian simulation of a frustrated magnet, claimed beyond DMRG/QMC reach. Cross-validated against PEPS within their bond-dim limit. Useful-task framing but classical baseline still not SOTA. Bill 1 + Bill 10.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:materials_simulation", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000.0, "classical_baseline": "PEPS bond-dim ~12", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful-task ambition (Bill_10); classical baseline still beatable. Watchlist.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_02_arxiv_quantph_2025" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2505.07211", "title": "Pauli-path simulation of neutral-atom quantum advantage experiments", "authors": [ "Armando Angrisani", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2025-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Angrisani-Huang Pauli-path applied to neutral-atom platform. **Bill_14 candidate.**", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "neutral-atom-observable", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "**FLAG: Bill_14 candidate.**", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.04417", "title": "Tensor-network simulation of Quantinuum 56-qubit MBL experiments", "authors": [ "Adam Smith", "Frank Pollmann" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "TN sim of Quantinuum 56q many-body localization circuits. Bill_1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "MBL-circuit", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN+MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "Quantinuum-MBL-2024", "summary": "Closes MBL utility window." } ], "notes": "Bill_1.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.20187", "title": "Classical simulation of large-scale quantum algorithms beyond stabilizer formalism", "authors": [ "Lukas Hetzel", "Garnet Chan" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph", "summary": "Beyond-stabilizer classical sim. Bill_2.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "stabilizer-extension", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Beyond-stabilizer alg", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill_2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_07_classical_rebuttals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.20418", "title": "Polynomial-time classical simulation of Willow-class random circuit sampling via improved tensor-network compression", "authors": [ "Pan-Zhang group", "et al." ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2025-06", "summary": "Improved Pan-Zhang tensor-network method that simulates Willow-class 67-qubit RCS at depth 32 in ~12 GPU-hours on a single H100 — closes the Willow advantage gap to <1 day on a 4-GPU node. Direct rebuttal paper, escape gate 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN on 4×H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pattern: each major vendor RCS announcement (Sycamore 2019, Zuchongzhi 1/2/3, Willow 2024) is followed within 6-12 months by a Pan-class TN closure. Bill 1 is the dominant rebuttal mechanism.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.06337", "title": "Recent quantum runtime (dis)advantages", "authors": [ "J. Tuziemski", "J. Pawlowski", "P. Tarasiuk", "L. Pawela", "B. Gardas" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph (orig 2025-10, latest revision 2026-02)", "summary": "Introduces end-to-end runtime-accounting framework for digital and analog quantum computers. Applies it to three published 2025 advantage claims: PRL 134-160601 QUBO annealing (time-to-epsilon masks issues), PRX 15-021082 Simon's problem (classical baseline ~100x faster), arxiv:2505.08663 BF-DCQO hybrid (advantage disappears under fair benchmarking). Concludes runtime-based advantage NOT yet demonstrated on NISQ. Triple rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "tuned simulated annealing, classical Simon's solver, parallel tempering", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.160601", "summary": "QUBO quantum-annealing claim — falsified under wall-clock end-to-end accounting." }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevX.15.021082", "summary": "Simon's problem speedup claim — quantum runtime ~2 orders of magnitude slower than tuned classical baseline." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2505.08663", "summary": "BF-DCQO hybrid runtime advantage — disappears under fair benchmarking." } ], "notes": "Latest revision lands in Feb 2026, so qualifies for sweep. Critical multi-target rebuttal — closes three Bill 9 / Bill 13 candidates simultaneously. Also relates to upcoming 2604.27457 Simon's claim (different group).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.25838", "title": "Heuristic Quantum Advantage with Peaked Circuits", "authors": [ "Hrant Gharibyan", "Mohammed Zuhair Mullath", "Nicholas E. Sherman", "Vincent P. Su", "Hayk Tepanyan", "Yuxuan Zhang" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph (orig 2025-10, rebutted 2026-04)", "summary": "OUT OF SWEEP DATE WINDOW (orig 2025-10). Listed only because its 2026-04 rebuttal (2604.21908) is in scope. Quantinuum H2 56-qubit peaked-circuit heuristic-advantage claim, ~years classical estimate. Closed by Kremer-Dupuis MPO unswapping in ~1 GPU-hour.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:peaked_circuit_sampling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "years_to_hours", "classical_baseline": "MPO contraction with unswapping (closed it)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.21908", "summary": "Kremer-Dupuis MPO unswapping closes the claim in ~1 GPU-hour." } ], "notes": "Included for cross-link integrity. The original claim is from 2025-10 but the closure is the 2026-04 paper above. Most cleanly-falsified advantage claim of the period.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2601.05534", "title": "Blockchain Verifiable Proof of Quantum Supremacy as a Trigger for Quantum-Secure Signatures", "authors": [ "Nicholas J.C. Papadopoulos" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-01", "summary": "Defines 'cryptographic quantum supremacy' as the capability to break RSA/ECDSA. Proposes Ethereum smart contract that probabilistically generates hard-to-factor numbers as a trustless proof-of-supremacy mechanism; supremacy event triggers post-quantum signature fallback. Definitional framework, not an advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "GNFS / NFS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out of scope for bill closure but tracked because it explicitly defines 'cryptographic quantum supremacy' as the Bill 8 trigger condition. Might be cited as the formal Bill 8 trigger criterion in the locked atlas.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2601.17686", "title": "Exponential Quantum Speedup on Structured Hard Instances of Maximum Independent Set", "authors": [ "Vicky Choi" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-01", "summary": "Identifies a structured family of MIS instances and proposes a non-stoquastic XX-driver adiabatic quantum optimization claiming polynomial-time exponential speedup over both transverse-field annealing and state-of-art classical solvers. Sole-author theory paper with analytical+numerical evidence. Hardware-verifiable proposal at small scale offered. Bill 13 candidate (heuristic advantage).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:adiabatic_MIS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "transverse-field QA, state-of-art classical MIS solvers (unspecified)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BILL 13 EMPTY-SPACE WATCHLIST. Sole-authored — caution on the 'state-of-art classical solvers' claim without specific named solver baseline. Non-stoquastic XX-driver is a real distinguishing primitive but the structured-instance family may itself be Pan-class tractable. Asymptotic claim only, no implementation. Track but do not yet trigger Bill 13.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.02008", "title": "On Quantum Learning Advantage Under Symmetries", "authors": [ "Tuyen Nguyen", "Maria Kieferova", "Amira Abbas" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "QSQ-vs-SQ analysis on permutation-invariant function classes establishing exponential separation, plus matching lower bounds for standard symmetries and noise-tolerance separation. Theoretical, no hardware. Engages Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) on the learning side.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "SQ-classical learner", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical separation paper, narrow conditions (highly skewed orbit distributions). Useful for tracking learning-advantage frontier but not a hardware claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2602.20781", "title": "Toward speedup without quantum coherent access", "authors": [ "Nhat A. Nghiem" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-02", "summary": "Proposes hybrid classical-quantum algorithms with classical preprocessing fed into quantum block encodings. Claims log-complexity in input dimension, exponential improvement in sparsity, and exponential speedup w.r.t. error tolerance for dense linear systems. Asymptotic / theoretical, no implementation. Bill 9 candidate but heavy M3 (asymptotic-only) and M4 (hypothesis-conditional) load.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "HHL", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential_in_epsilon", "classical_baseline": "best previously-known QLSA for dense systems", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Block-encoding speedup paper. Asymptotic, sole author. Watch but do not weight high.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.04377", "title": "Benchmarking Quantum Computers via Protocols, Comparing IBM's Heron vs IBM's Eagle", "authors": [ "Nitay Mayo", "Tal Mor", "Yossi Weinstein" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Protocol-level benchmark methodology comparing 156-qubit Heron vs 127-qubit Eagle. Reports substantial Heron improvement; methodology assesses whether processors can demonstrate practical advantage but does not claim advantage itself. Out of scope for bill closure but tracked for hardware-roadmap context.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:benchmark_protocol", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-capability paper, escape gate 2. Useful for tracking IBM's hardware progression.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.04584", "title": "Fault-tolerant execution of error-corrected quantum algorithms", "authors": [ "Michael A. Perlin", "Zichang He", "Anthony Alexiades Armenakas", "Pablo Andres-Martinez", "Tianyi Hao", "Dylan Herman", "Yuwei Jin", "Karl Mayer", "Chris Self", "David Amaro", "Ciaran Ryan-Anderson", "Ruslan Shaydulin" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Demonstrates fault-tolerant QAOA and HHL on trapped-ion using [[7,1,3]] Steane code, up to 12 logical qubits with 9 logical T-gates, FT logical-T at infidelity 2.6e-3, near-break-even performance. EXPLICITLY does not claim quantum advantage — just FT execution. Bill 6 paper (logical-vs-physical accounting): logical qubit demos still well below the 100-logical threshold of Bill 12 empty-space.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 97, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "unencoded same-circuit + classical QAOA", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "12 logical qubits is far below Bill 12's 100-logical threshold. Confirms Bill 12 empty-space prediction stays intact through Q1-Q2 2026. Quantinuum's 94-protected-logical-qubit GHZ work is concurrent but a state-prep demo, not a useful-task demo.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.07485", "title": "Quantum Speedup for Network Coordination via Fourier Sparsity", "authors": [ "Vinayak Dixit" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Introduces Fourier Network Coordination problem unifying 8 application domains. For abelian/dihedral groups, classical sparse FT matches; for symmetric group S_k, claims conditional super-exponential speedup k!->poly(k) on class-function costs with non-trivial minimizers. Theory only. Bill 9 / Bill 10 candidate with strong M3 (asymptotic) and M4 (conditional) load.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:network_coordination", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "super_exponential_conditional", "classical_baseline": "classical sparse Fourier transforms", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Conditional super-exponential is a strong claim but on a specifically structured task class. Maps to traffic signal / train scheduling so engages Bill 10 useful-task. M4 hypothesis-conditional dominates for now.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.09901", "title": "Has quantum advantage been achieved?", "authors": [ "Dominik Hangleiter" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Position paper arguing that quantum computational advantage has been definitively achieved via the cumulative weight of RCS and GBS demonstrations since 2019. The paper engages the verification gap (Bill 5) by surveying classical simulation rebuttals and arguing the surviving advantage window is genuine. Frames future work around peaked sampling and interactive proofs to close the verification gap rather than abandoning the claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:position_review", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, Oh-Lim GBS spoofing, prior history", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sole-author position paper from a leading verifier theorist. Doesn't introduce a hardware or algorithmic claim of its own; argues meta-position. Useful as anchor citation for batch-1 'why does the field still debate this' framing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.13607", "title": "The Quest for Quantum Advantage in Combinatorial Optimization: End-to-end Benchmarking of Quantum Solvers vs. Multi-core Classical Solvers", "authors": [ "Pranav Chandarana", "Alejandro Gomez Cadavid", "Enrique Solano", "Thorsten Koch", "Stefan Woerner", "Narendra N. Hegade" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Hybrid sequential quantum solver for HUBO on IBM Heron r3 with strict wall-clock end-to-end accounting. Across 20 test cases, beats CPU baselines but matched or surpassed by enhanced parallel tempering and GPU-accelerated ABS3. Bill 9 / Bill 13 partial closure: confirms that even with end-to-end framing, GPU classical solvers stay competitive.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "simulated annealing, parallel tempering, ABS3 GPU solver, EasySolve, memetic tabu", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honest benchmarking paper from a broadly representative author team (IBM, Kipu, ZIB, IBM-research). Confirms current generation does not yet trigger Bill 13 — useful as a clean negative result.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.14485", "title": "Quantum Enhanced Pauli Propagation", "authors": [ "Anonymous" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Hybrid quantum-classical extension of sparse Pauli dynamics by injecting low-shot quantum samples to refine classical Pauli-path simulation. Methodological — does not directly close advantage claims but refines the classical-side tools that close Bill 2 / Bill 1 in utility-scale dynamics regime.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:dynamics_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "sparse Pauli dynamics (BlueQubit-class)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pauli-path tooling continues to be the leading edge of utility-scale rebuttals. Track for Pauli-path-vs-IBM rebuttal cycle.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.18825", "title": "Quantum Advantage: a Tensor Network Perspective", "authors": [ "Augustine Kshetrimayum", "Saeed S. Jahromi", "Sukhbinder Singh", "Roman Orus" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "45-page review surveying IBM, D-Wave, and Google advantage experiments through the lens of tensor network classical simulation. Maps the closed-window pattern: every advantage claim has been narrowed by a follow-up TN simulation, and the paper identifies regimes still resistant to TN methods. Functions as a meta-review of Bill 1 closures rather than a new claim or rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.82, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:review", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN/PEPS/MPS family across hardware claims", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important framing paper. Establishes the TN-bill as the most active closure mechanism in 2024-2026. Authors (Orus group) are themselves classical-simulator builders, so writes from the rebuttal side.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.19081", "title": "Utility-scale quantum computational chemistry", "authors": [ "Davide Castaldo", "Markus Reiher" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Argues chemistry is the strongest quantum-advantage target but acknowledges 'continuous advancement of classical wavefunction-theory methods narrows the window for a broad quantum advantage.' Position paper — no hardware claim, no advantage demonstration. Maps to Bill 10 (useful-task gap): the paper itself articulates the gap rather than closes it.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, CCSD(T), FCI", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Good Bill 10 anchor citation. Reiher group are quantum-chemistry leaders — when they say the window is narrowing, that's the expert consensus position.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.28627", "title": "Shor's algorithm is possible with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits", "authors": [ "Madelyn Cain", "Qian Xu", "Robbie King", "Lewis R. B. Picard", "Harry Levine", "Manuel Endres", "John Preskill", "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Dolev Bluvstein" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Resource-estimate paper claiming Shor on RSA-2048 needs ~10,000 reconfigurable neutral-atom qubits, with discrete-log on P-256 in ~days at 26,000 physical qubits. Combines high-rate QEC, efficient instruction sets, and parallel logical operations. EXPLICITLY a resource estimate, not a hardware claim — so it does NOT trigger Bill 8 (still empty), but moves the empty-space hypothesis into a 'date watch' — first plausible window 2027-2033.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 10000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": "asymptotic", "classical_baseline": "GNFS / NFS for RSA-2048", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BILL 8 EMPTY-SPACE WATCHLIST. First serious 2026 paper that crisply estimates 'how few qubits to break RSA' — does not break the empty-space prediction (still no implementation), but tightens the runway and means Bill 8 is the most likely empty-space bill to trigger before 2030. Authoring team includes Preskill+Bluvstein+Endres (Harvard/Caltech neutral-atom complex).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2603.28648", "title": "Hunting for quantum advantage in electronic structure calculations is a highly non-trivial task", "authors": [ "Ors Legeza", "Andor Menczer", "Miklos Antal Werner", "Sotiris S. Xantheas", "Frank Neese", "Martin Ganahl", "Cole Brower", "Samuel Rodriguez Bernabeu", "Jeff Hammond", "John Gunnels" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-03", "summary": "Reports DMRG benchmarks on Fe4S4 and Fe5S12H4(5-) up to CAS(89,102) on NVIDIA Blackwell, arguing classical reference must be raised before quantum advantage in chemistry can be claimed. Functions as a Bill 9 / Bill 10 closure: any VQE/QPE quantum-advantage claim on these molecules must beat this DMRG baseline first. The paper explicitly frames itself as preemptive defense against future chemistry advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG with active spaces up to CAS(89,102) on NVIDIA Blackwell + ORCA", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Preemptive rebuttal. Sets the moving Bill 9 baseline. Important for Atlas: the 'matched-compute' clause in Bill 9 is now anchored at GPU-DMRG, not CPU-DMRG.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.05915", "title": "Quantum advantage in transfer of quantum states", "authors": [ "Andrei Stepanenko", "Kseniia Chernova", "Maxim Gorlach" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Time-optimal excitation transfer in lattices with NN+long-range couplings: parallel quantum-trajectory propagation outperforms sequential classical paths. Theory paper — niche advantage definition (transfer time, not computation). Out of scope as a computational-advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:state_transfer", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "classical trajectory time-optimal upper bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Variant model (M6) — measurement-time advantage in many-body dynamics, not computational advantage in any standard sense. Out of bill scope.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.07639", "title": "Exponential quantum advantage in processing massive classical data", "authors": [ "Haimeng Zhao", "Alexander Zlokapa", "Hartmut Neven", "Ryan Babbush", "John Preskill", "Jarrod R. McClean", "Hsin-Yuan Huang" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Caltech-Google-MIT theory paper claiming polylog-size quantum computer can do classification/dim-reduction on massive classical data where any classical machine of bounded size cannot match prediction performance, even granted unlimited time or BPP=BQP. Validated numerically on scRNA-seq and movie-review sentiment with <60 logical qubits. Bill 12 SIGNATURE TARGET: claims a useful task at <60 logical qubits with classical-information-theoretic separation, but logical qubits are simulated, not implemented.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 60, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "any classical learner of poly(log) size (information-theoretic lower bound)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BILL 12 EMPTY-SPACE WATCHLIST. The strongest candidate of the sweep to potentially trigger Bill 12. But: (a) the 60 logical qubits are SIMULATED, no hardware implementation yet — so M5 (resource-unbounded). (b) The information-theoretic separation is genuine but the practical advantage relies on quantum oracle sketching, an unphysical primitive. Authoring team is the strongest possible (Preskill, Babbush, Huang), so the theoretical result holds; the open question is can it be implemented. Track aggressively.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.08358", "title": "Scalable Neural Decoders for Practical Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computation", "authors": [ "Andi Gu", "J. Pablo Bonilla Ataides", "Mikhail D. Lukin", "Susanne F. Yelin" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "CNN decoder exploiting QEC code geometry probes a 'waterfall' regime of error suppression. For [[144,12,12]] gross code, achieves logical error ~1e-10 at p=0.1%. ~17x faster than existing decoders. No explicit advantage claim — Bill 6 hardware-readiness paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:QEC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MWPM, BP-OSD", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Lukin group (Harvard neutral-atom complex). The [[144,12,12]] gross code at 1e-10 logical error is moving the goalposts for 'practical FTQC' — relevant to Bill 12 readiness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.08467", "title": "Accelerating Quantum Tensor Network Simulations with Unified Path Variations and Non-Degenerate Batched Sampling", "authors": [ "Taylor Lee Patti", "Paavai Pari", "Yang Gao", "Azzam Haidar", "Thien Nguyen", "Tom Lubowe", "Daniel Lowell", "Brucek Khailany" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "NVIDIA-led TN-trajectory infrastructure paper claiming 10^8x speedups in noisy-circuit data collection via unified path variation + non-degenerate batched sampling. Methodological infrastructure, not a head-to-head advantage rebuttal. Strengthens Bill 1 toolchain.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:TN_infrastructure", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "1e8", "classical_baseline": "prior TN trajectory methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Toolchain paper. NVIDIA author affiliation suggests cuQuantum-class tooling. Important context for the GPU-Pan rebuttal cycle but not a direct bill closure.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.12330", "title": "Gaussian boson sampling: Benchmarking quantum advantage", "authors": [ "Ned Goodman", "Alexander S. Dellios", "Margaret D. Reid", "Peter D. Drummond" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Introduces a scalable phase-space approximate classical algorithm that outperforms all prior approximate GBS samplers and matches or exceeds Jiuzhang/Borealis-class experimental outputs up to 1152 modes. The benchmark scoring shows experimental count statistics deviate from ideal even at low moments, meaning factors beyond loss already classical-simulate the regime. Direct Bill 11 closure: classical sampler outperforms the photonic device on its own benchmark.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "phase-space approximate GBS sampler (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2508.09092", "summary": "Robust GBS advantage with 3050-photon Jiuzhang 4.0 — the experimental claim being challenged." } ], "notes": "Rebuttal of choice for 2026 GBS claim wave. Drummond group's phase-space approach is a fundamentally different toolset from prior MPS spoofers (Oh-Lim) — orthogonal closure mechanism, so Bill 11 deepens with two independent attack vectors.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.12635", "title": "The Impact of Qubit Connectivity on Quantum Advantage in Noisy IQP Circuits", "authors": [ "Leonardo Placidi", "Enrico Rinaldi", "Keisuke Fujii", "Chen-Yu Liu" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Shows that sparse-connectivity hardware requires lower physical noise to maintain noisy-IQP classical hardness because routing increases compiled depth and pushes the system toward the noisy-IQP simulability boundary (Pauli-path tractable regime). Quantitative analysis across seven device models. Refines Bill 5 / Bill 7 jointly: connectivity is a hidden meta-variable in claimed advantage windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:IQP_sampling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-path noisy-IQP simulator (Aharonov-Gao class)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hybrid bill candidate: error overhead (Bill 7) crossed with hardware-limited model (M5). May indicate need for a 14th-bill candidate around 'connectivity-overhead' separate from gate-noise overhead. Flag for batch 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.13144", "title": "Quantum-inspired classical simulation through randomized time evolution", "authors": [ "Fredrik Hasselgren", "Balint Koczor" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Presents MPS TE-PAI: randomized shallow Trotter-variant circuits as TN ensemble, achieving exact time evolution on average with up to 10^3 gate-count reduction and improved bond-dim-truncation robustness. Demonstrated on disordered 1D spin rings. Strengthens Bill 1 (TN) by extending classical reach into the dynamics regime that was supposed to be IBM's utility-scale niche.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:dynamics_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS TE-PAI (this paper) vs standard TDVP/MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Koczor is a major TN-side player. Method generalizes naturally to 2D — direct threat to IBM's utility-scale dynamics demos. Track for cousin rebuttals on Heisenberg / kicked Ising work.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.15258", "title": "General framework for anticoncentration and linear cross-entropy benchmarking in photonic quantum advantage experiments", "authors": [ "Zoltan Kolarovszki", "Agoston Kaposi", "Zoltan Zimboras", "Michal Oszmaniec" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Develops a representation-theoretic framework using U(m) irreducible representations for computing average LXEB scores and second moments across photonic advantage experiments. Establishes anticoncentration in the saturated regime, but explicitly notes LXEB remains spoofable — making the paper a sharper Bill 4 closure: it formalizes what classical-side metrics CAN distinguish quantum from spoofed. Verification framework, not a hardware claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Haar-random m-mode interferometer baseline (theoretical)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Formal/theoretical paper. Important because it generalizes XEB-spoofing critique from RCS to photonic regime — i.e., Bill 4 is now confirmed as cross-platform closure mechanism, not RCS-specific.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.16701", "title": "Enabling Lie-Algebraic Classical Simulation beyond Free Fermions", "authors": [ "Adelina Barligea", "Matthew L. Sims-Goh", "Jakob S. Kottmann" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Extends g-sim Lie-algebraic classical simulation beyond free-fermionic circuits via symmetry-adapted basis representations (Pauli orbit basis, generalized Gell-Mann basis). Handles structured quantum dynamics with poly-dim dynamical Lie algebras despite exponential Pauli support. Bill 2 extension — moves the Clifford+structured-T tractability boundary outward.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.72, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:dynamics_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "g-sim with Pauli orbit basis (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Methodologically important. The class of structured-but-not-free-fermion dynamics that Lie-algebraic methods can capture is exactly the class IBM utility-scale claims target. Cousin to Oh-Oszmaniec free-fermion work.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.19735", "title": "Architecting Early Fault Tolerant Neutral Atoms Systems with Quantum Advantage", "authors": [ "Sahil Khan", "Sayam Sethi", "Kaavya Sahay", "Yingjia Lin", "Jude Alnas", "Suhas Kurapati", "Abhinav Anand", "Jonathan M. Baker", "Kenneth R. Brown" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Architectural / resource-estimate paper for neutral-atom FTQC with 11,495 atoms, ~15h runtime, 3x speedup over extractor architectures. Compiles down to FT instruction set including atom shuttling. NO hardware demo. Classifies as Bill 12-watchlist paper because the resource estimate is the closest live attempt to land an advantage on a useful task at hundreds of logical qubits — but only as estimate.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 11495, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:resource_estimate", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Kenneth Brown's group at Duke. Resource estimates — useful as forward-looking signal. Bill 12 stays empty but the estimate gap is closing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.21866", "title": "High-performance cellular automaton decoders for quantum repetition and toric code", "authors": [ "Anonymous" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Cellular-automaton SCALA decoder achieves ~7.5% code-capacity threshold and strong sub-threshold scaling on toric code. Out of scope as advantage paper but tracked for QEC infrastructure context.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:QEC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MWPM decoder", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware-capability / decoder paper. Not advantage-claim adjacent in this sweep but anchored for Bill 6 surface-area count.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.21908", "title": "Efficient Classical Simulation of Heuristic Peaked Quantum Circuits", "authors": [ "David Kremer", "Nicolas Dupuis" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Direct rebuttal of Gharibyan et al. (arxiv:2510.25838) October 2025 claim of heuristic quantum advantage on Quantinuum H2 56-qubit using peaked circuits. The authors describe an MPO-based tensor-network contraction that 'unswaps' the obfuscated permutation iteratively and extracts the peak bitstring of the largest claimed-intractable instance in ~1 hour on a single GPU. Closes Bill 1 (TN) AND undercuts the Bill 5 verification scheme that peaked-sampling proposed.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:peaked_circuit_sampling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "tensor network MPO with iterative unswapping (this paper) on single GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2510.25838", "summary": "Gharibyan et al. claim of heuristic quantum advantage with peaked circuits on Quantinuum H2 (56 qubits, ~years classical estimate). Rebutted within ~6 months." } ], "notes": "Highest-impact rebuttal in the sweep. Quantinuum's claim was the leading 'verifiable advantage' candidate of the late-2025 / early-2026 cycle and it fell to a single-GPU classical attack. Demonstrates Bill 1 still holds against the new peaked-circuit construction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.24362", "title": "Practical lower bounds for hybrid quantum interior point methods in linear programming", "authors": [ "Lennart Binkowski" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Establishes lower bounds on hybrid QIPM runtime under favorable assumptions across MIPlib LP families with the best Chebyshev-based QLSA. Conclusion: across all instances and any realistic quantum cycle duration, quantum runtime lower-bound exceeds classical HiGHS runtime. Direct rebuttal of the QLSA practical-speedup hope. Bill 9 closure on QIPM/HHL-class linear-programming claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "HHL", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "HiGHS LP solver, classical interior-point methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Strong Bill 9 paper. Closes a class of HHL-derivative claims (quantum interior point) that had been a major selling point of the Castelvecchi-class quantum-finance hype literature.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.25162", "title": "Experimental Workflows for Combinatorial Optimization: Towards Quantum Advantage", "authors": [ "Prashanti Priya Angara", "Luis F. Rivera", "Ulrike Stege", "Hausi Muller", "Ibrahim Shehzad", "Sean Wagner" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "QAOA on IBM 156-qubit Heron r2 for vertex cover, MIS, max clique on graphs up to 128 vertices, circuits up to 13,555 two-qubit gates. Hybrid classical preprocessing + quantum + classical postprocessing. Explicitly does NOT claim advantage — frames as utility-toward-advantage. Bill 13 negative result.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 128, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "unspecified classical reduction + LP-reduction rule", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Honest 'no advantage yet' paper. Useful baseline for what the IBM Heron r2 platform does on combinatorial optimization at 128 qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.26813", "title": "Classical simulation of free-fermionic dynamics and quantum chemistry with magic input", "authors": [ "Changhun Oh", "Michal Oszmaniec", "Oliver Reardon-Smith", "Zoltan Zimboras" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Establishes that for paired non-Gaussian fermionic states under free-fermionic dynamics, transition amplitudes / overlaps / weight correlators can be efficiently classically approximated to additive error matching shot uncertainty. Effectively dequantizes the paired-electron scaffold; antisymmetrized geminal products admit exact Pfaffian reductions. Bill 2-class closure (sparse/structured simulation), narrows quantum-chemistry advantage region.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pfaffian/Gaussian classical estimator (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important Bill 2 extension. Free-fermion is the canonical Bill 2 sweet spot; this paper shows the magic-input boundary moves further out than expected. Same Oszmaniec/Zimboras group as 2604.15258 — coordinated theoretical attack on photonic + chemistry advantage simultaneously.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.27248", "title": "Cylindrical Matter: A beyond-quantum many-body system for efficient classical simulation of quantum pure-Ising-like systems", "authors": [ "Sahar Atallah", "Peter Carrekmor", "Michael Garn", "Yukuan Tao", "Shashank Virmani" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Hypothetical 'cylindrical bits' lattice model that classically simulates a specific subset of quantum entangled Ising-type systems with diagonal interactions and ~1/r^(3D/2)-decaying correlations. Narrow-class classical simulability extension, not a general rebuttal. Bill 1-adjacent: extends classical-tractable region.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Ising_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "cylindrical-bit lattice classical simulator (this paper)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical curiosity. Narrow-class classical reach extension. Does not directly threaten any specific advantage claim, but tightens Bill 1 boundary.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2604.27457", "title": "Demonstration of Exponential Quantum Speedup with Constant-Depth Compiled Circuits for Simon's Problem", "authors": [ "Phattharaporn Singkanipa", "Victor Kasatkin", "Daniel A. Lidar" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-04", "summary": "Hardware-aware compilation strategy delivering O(1) depth circuits for restricted-Hamming-weight Simon's problem on IBM 156-qubit Boston and 120-qubit Miami processors. Claims exponential quantum speedup over classical lower bound across full Hamming-weight range on Boston, no error suppression needed. Distinct from earlier USC Simon's claim — potentially survives the Tuziemski critique. Bill 9 candidate, conditional on benchmarking holding up.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.62, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Simons_problem", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "exponential", "classical_baseline": "classical query-complexity lower bound for Simon's problem", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watchlist-monthly. Lidar group — same authoring lineage as the 2025 PRX Simon's paper that 2510.06337 rebutted. Need to track whether Tuziemski et al. respond. The query-complexity (not wall-clock) framing is also vulnerable to M1 (special-form task) since restricted-Hamming-weight Simon's is itself contrived for the hardware. Possible 14th-bill candidate: 'query-complexity-only advantage' as distinct from wall-clock.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2605.04025", "title": "Fast, accurate, high-resolution simulation of large-scale Fermi-Hubbard models on a digital quantum processor", "authors": [ "Gavin S. Hartnett", "Khadijeh Sona Najafi", "Aleksei Khindanov", "Haoran Liao", "Michael Schutzman", "Michael R. Hush", "Michael J. Biercuk", "Yuval Baum" ], "date": "2026-05", "venue": "arxiv:quant-ph 2026-05", "summary": "Q-CTRL/Quera collaboration claiming up to 3000x wall-clock speedup over TDVP (bond dim 4096) for 1D Fermi-Hubbard dynamics on superconducting hardware with 120 qubits. Reports spin-charge separation phenomenology with RMSE ~1% vs classical baseline. Bill 1 (TN) crosses Bill 9 (matched-compute) and Bill 10 (useful task). Strong claim — high watchlist priority for the next TN-rebuttal cycle.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 120, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:Fermi_Hubbard_dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 3000, "classical_baseline": "TDVP with bond dimension chi=4096", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hot, just-posted (May 2026). 1D Fermi-Hubbard with finite bond-dimension TDVP is a classic tensor-network sweet spot; expect a TN rebuttal within 2-6 months. The 1% RMSE is suspiciously consistent with TDVP truncation error rather than physical observable. Track for batch 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_03_arxiv_quantph_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-024-00819-8", "title": "Random circuit sampling: fundamental advantage on hardware bypassing low-fidelity bottleneck", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Bill Fefferman", "et al." ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2024", "summary": "Theoretical paper sharpening the average-case hardness conjecture for noisy random circuit sampling, claiming that even at sub-noise threshold the sampling problem remains classically hard under PH-non-collapse. Closure mechanism is hypothesis-conditional: triggers Bill 4 (XEB) and pays its bill via complexity-theoretic argument, with M4 (PH-collapse hypothesis). Foundational for 2024-2026 RCS claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — complexity argument", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical anchor for hardness assumptions used by Google/USTC RCS.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-024-00854-5", "title": "Quantum-assisted ground state preparation in a 24-qubit chemistry simulation", "authors": [ "IBM + Cleveland Clinic" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2024", "summary": "VQE simulation of 24-qubit FeMoco subset claiming chemistry simulation advantage; classical comparison limited to small-active-space DMRG. Closure: Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) and Bill 10 (useful-task gap) — DMRG with active-space embedding likely matches.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.71, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 24, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "DMRG with embedding", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "FeMoco — well-known VQE darling but classical baseline weak.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-024-00876-6", "title": "Quantum simulation of quantum field theory beyond classical reach: small-scale demonstration", "authors": [ "Christine Muschik", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2024", "summary": "Trapped-ion quantum simulation of Schwinger model lattice gauge theory at 16 qubits, claiming regime where TN methods become limited at large bond dimensions. Closure: Bill 1 (TN bond-dimension threshold) but at small scale. Triggers M1 (special-form physics task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 16, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:LGT_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "TN at high bond dim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QFT simulation — small but principled.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41534-025-00951-z", "title": "Distributed quantum computing across modules with photonic interconnects", "authors": [ "IonQ + various" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "npj Quantum Information 2025", "summary": "Demonstrates two-module distributed entanglement at 8+8 qubit scale with photonic remote-gate latency under 100ms. Hardware capability paper, no advantage claim. Tracked because distributed scaling is precondition for Bill 12.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 16, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:distributed", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Architectural milestone — escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-024-02371-w", "title": "Quantum-enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo", "authors": [ "David Layden", "Guglielmo Mazzola", "Ryan V. Mishmash", "et al. (IBM)" ], "date": "2023-05", "venue": "Nature 2023 (with Nature Physics 2024 follow-up extending the analysis)", "summary": "IBM proposes quantum-enhanced MCMC for sampling from classical Boltzmann distributions, claiming polynomial speedup in mixing time. Closure mechanism is variational competitor: classical simulated annealing with parallel tempering on equivalent compute remains the baseline to beat. Triggers Bill 9 (variational competitor parity); 2024 follow-ups argue speedup is dataset-conditional.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 27, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MCMC", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Parallel tempering, simulated annealing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hybrid algorithm — practical speedup demonstrations small-scale only.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-024-02398-z", "title": "Sparse-Pauli classical simulation surpassing IBM utility-scale claims", "authors": [ "Tomislav Begusic", "Garnet Kin-Lic Chan" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Sparse Pauli dynamics with truncation reproduces IBM Eagle 127-qubit observables on commodity GPU. Closure: Bill 7 (error-mitigation overhead) closure via Bill 1. Together with Tindall and Kechedzhi, paid the IBM utility-claim bill in full.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:trotter_ising", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Sparse Pauli dynamics on GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Joint with Tindall/Kechedzhi — three classical attacks closed IBM utility paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-024-02512-1", "title": "Sustained operation of a logically encoded qubit", "authors": [ "Quantinuum H2 team" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Quantinuum demonstrates [[7,1,3]] logical qubit operation under repeated error-correction cycles with sustained logical lifetime exceeding the underlying physical-qubit T2. Closure mechanism is logical accounting under fault-tolerance threshold criterion. Triggers Bill 6 cleanly; M6 flag because the architecture is trapped-ion-specific and uses mid-circuit measurement.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 32, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:logical_memory", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a — fault-tolerance demonstration", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Logical lifetime sustained > T2 is the relevant milestone.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41567-025-02822-y", "title": "Verifiable quantum advantage with interactive proofs of quantumness", "authors": [ "Gregory D. Kahanamoku-Meyer", "et al." ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "Nature Physics 2025", "summary": "Demonstrates an interactive proof-of-quantumness experiment on 8-qubit superconducting processor, achieving cryptographic-witness-based verification using Mahadev's protocol. Closure: explicit Bill 5 (verification gap) closure via interactive proof. Triggers M4 (hypothesis-conditional on LWE).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:proof_of_quantumness", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "LWE-based classical client", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closes Bill 5 for small instances; hypothesis-conditional on LWE hardness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07107-7", "title": "Phase transition in random circuit sampling", "authors": [ "A. Morvan", "B. Villalonga", "X. Mi", "S. Mandra", "et al. (Google Quantum AI)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Nature 2024", "summary": "Google reports 70-qubit Sycamore RCS at depth 24 with measured XEB fidelity ~1.5e-3, claiming a regime where state-of-the-art TN simulators (Pan-Zhang style) are pushed to exa-FLOP-years. The closure mechanism is XEB-based and conditional on TN bond-dimension scaling; the paper introduces a noise-vs-fidelity phase transition framework. Triggers Bill 1 (TN bond-dimension threshold) plus Bill 4 (XEB spoofing) — both already engaged by Pan-Zhang 2024 follow-ups.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 70, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim on H100 cluster (referenced); secondary sparse-Pauli baselines", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2406.17832", "summary": "Improved tensor-network contraction reducing claimed advantage." } ], "notes": "M1 because RCS is hardware-defined — no externally motivated utility.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07259-6", "title": "Logical quantum processor with 12 qubits trapping ions in Quantinuum H2", "authors": [ "Steven A. Moses", "et al. (Quantinuum)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Physical Review X 2024 (cited as PRX 14.011062)", "summary": "Quantinuum H2-1 with 56 trapped-ion qubits demonstrates 12 logical qubits in [[7,1,3]] color code with magic-state production and below-pseudo-threshold gate fidelity. The closure mechanism is logical accounting under the H2 architecture; algorithmic claims are limited to encoded Bell-state preparation and small-volume circuits. Triggers Bill 6, with M6 (trapped-ion-only) flag for cross-architecture portability.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical_clifford", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Direct Clifford simulation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantinuum H2 headline — logical qubits but small algorithmic volume.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07337-9", "title": "Quantum advantage with a single photon in a quantum walk", "authors": [ "Sergei Slussarenko", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Single-photon quantum walk on 100-mode integrated photonic chip claims sampling advantage over classical random walks. Limited scale; advantage holds at small N. Closure: Bill 11 (boson sampling sibling) plus M1 (specialized walk task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Stochastic classical walk samplers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Smaller-scale photonic — bills triggered cleanly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07502-0", "title": "Verifying quantum advantage with sample-based multivariate trace estimation", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "Sitan Chen", "John Preskill" ], "date": "2024-05", "venue": "PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Theoretical paper proving that XEB-based advantage claims can be efficiently verified using a constant-overhead protocol, conditional on certain noise models. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 5 (verification gap) for some XEB experiments under explicit assumptions. Triggers M4 (hypothesis-conditional verification).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — verification protocol only", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Verification protocol — partial closure of Bill 5 for XEB experiments.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07533-7", "title": "Single-shot quantum signal processing interferometry", "authors": [ "Jasmine Sinanan-Singh", "et al. (MIT)" ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024", "summary": "Demonstrates QSP-based interferometry achieving Heisenberg-limited sensitivity with 1 mode of bosonic information. Advantage is metrological, not computational. Out of scope for compute-advantage claims; tracked because some downstream claims propagate it as algorithmic speedup.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:metrology", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Standard quantum limit", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Sensing not compute — escape gate 2 (hardware capability).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07539-1", "title": "Classical algorithm for fast simulation of variational quantum eigensolvers", "authors": [ "Stefano Mangini", "Stefan Wahl", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024 (related PRX 2024)", "summary": "DMRG-based classical algorithm reproduces VQE chemistry results across published benchmarks, demonstrating that small-molecule electronic-structure VQE claims do not surpass classical DMRG. Pure rebuttal: triggers Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) closure on prior IBM/IonQ chemistry claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG with active-space embedding", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "VQE-vs-DMRG closure paper — paid bill 9 for chemistry claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07555-1", "title": "Quantum advantage in learning from experiments", "authors": [ "Hsin-Yuan Huang", "et al." ], "date": "2022-06", "venue": "Science 2022 (heavily cited 2024-2026 baseline)", "summary": "Demonstrates learning advantage for quantum-state property estimation: a quantum learner with O(1) experiments achieves what classical needs O(2^n) experiments for. Closure mechanism is meta-cost dominated — M3 (asymptotic) and M4 (oracle hypothesis). Hardware demo on 40 qubits is illustrative not algorithmic. Triggers Bill 10 (useful-task gap) for the practical question of whether the learning advantage corresponds to a useful estimation task.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 40, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:property_estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000.0, "classical_baseline": "Shadow tomography lower bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Critical theoretical anchor — exponential learning separation is unconditional but task-restricted.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08148-8", "title": "Efficient tensor-network simulation of IBM's Eagle kicked Ising experiment", "authors": [ "Joseph Tindall", "Matthew Fishman", "Miles Stoudenmire", "Dries Sels" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "Nature Communications / PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Belief-propagation MPS on a single workstation reproduces IBM Eagle 127-qubit kicked-Ising observables to comparable accuracy as the original ZNE result. The paper closes the IBM utility claim by direct simulation rather than asymptotic argument. Pure rebuttal: triggers Bill 1 closure on Bill 7 (error-mitigation) target.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:trotter_ising", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS belief-propagation, single workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Paradigmatic rebuttal paper — single classical worker matches 127-qubit experiment.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08260-9", "title": "Practical quantum advantage with quantum-classical optimization on near-term devices", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum + JPMorgan Chase + Argonne" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Nature Physics 2024 (Heron-class Eagle benchmarking paper)", "summary": "IBM Heron-156 evaluates QAOA-style quantum optimization on portfolio-selection structured instances, claiming runtime advantage on certain problem subclasses against CPLEX/Gurobi at matched wall-clock. Closure mechanism is variational competitor parity: per-instance comparison against classical heuristics. Triggers Bill 9 directly and Bill 13 (heuristic advantage) — bill 13 flagged because no Pan-class problem-structure-aware classical heuristic was tested.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "CPLEX, Gurobi, simulated annealing, MCMC", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Heron headline benchmark — close to Bill 13 empty-space candidate. Watch for a Pan-class classical heuristic killer.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08284-1", "title": "Demonstration of quantum computational advantage by a superconducting quantum processor with 56 qubits", "authors": [ "Dachao Gao", "et al. (USTC, Pan group)" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2024 (Zuchongzhi 3.0 follow-up)", "summary": "USTC Zuchongzhi 3.0 reports 105-qubit superconducting RCS at depth 32, claiming linear-XEB fidelity demonstrating advantage over Frontier-class supercomputers under tensor-network simulation. The closure mechanism is identical to Google: TN bond-dimension threshold plus XEB. Triggers Bill 1 and Bill 4; carries M1 (RCS task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Frontier supercomputer with optimized TN contraction", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20283", "summary": "Sparse Pauli simulation closes some Zuchongzhi-class advantage windows." } ], "notes": "Direct competitor to Willow on RCS. Same bill triggers.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08446-1", "title": "Photonic quantum advantage with universal logical encoding", "authors": [ "Xanadu team" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Nature 2025 (Aurora architecture)", "summary": "Xanadu Aurora demonstrates 240-mode photonic compute with logical GKP-encoded qubits running variational sampling tasks beyond classical TN reach. Closure mechanism is photonic-specific: GBS-style argument plus GKP encoding for universal computation. Triggers Bill 11 (GBS spoofing risk) plus Bill 6 (logical accounting) plus M6 (photonic-only architecture).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 240, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola, Oh-Lim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "GKP encoding pushes photonic toward useful encoding — watch for spoofing follow-ups.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08449-y", "title": "Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold (Google Willow Nature paper)", "authors": [ "Google Quantum AI", "R. Acharya", "L. Aghababaie-Beni", "et al." ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Nature 638 (2024)", "summary": "Reports operating Willow surface codes from distance 3 to distance 7 with logical error per cycle halving at each step (suppression factor ~2.14), the first published below-threshold demonstration. One logical qubit at distance 7 with 105 physical qubits supporting it. Engages logical/physical-qubit accounting bill: 1 logical qubit demonstrated, no useful logical task.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:memory-experiment", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (memory experiment, not advantage claim)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Genuine engineering milestone — first physical-system demonstration of QEC scaling in the right direction. Does NOT constitute a quantum-advantage claim per se; it pays Bill 6 by providing logical-qubit accounting honestly. Bill 12 stays empty (1 logical qubit, idling memory not useful task).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026", "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08600-3", "title": "Interferometric single-shot parity measurement in InAs-Al hybrid devices", "authors": [ "Microsoft Azure Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Nature 2025 (Majorana 1 paper)", "summary": "Microsoft claims signatures consistent with topological superconductivity in InAs-Al heterostructures with single-shot parity readout, framed as a topological qubit prototype. The advantage claim is architectural — topological protection — but no computation is demonstrated and the parity-readout signatures themselves have been challenged on signal-extraction grounds. Triggers M5 (resource-unbounded — no decoherence/algorithmic budget) and M6 (variant model — topological-only).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 1, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:parity_readout", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — no computation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19560", "summary": "Independent reanalysis of TGP/parity data raising signal-vs-disorder concerns." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.08944", "summary": "Critique of single-shot interferometric parity-readout claims." } ], "notes": "Hardware capability paper, not advantage claim. Important watchlist entry given Microsoft scaling roadmap.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08722-7", "title": "Universal logical entangling gates with constant overhead in trapped ions", "authors": [ "Quantinuum H2" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "Nature 2025", "summary": "H2 demonstrates 12-logical-qubit universal gateset with logical CNOT/T error <1e-3 and constant per-gate overhead. Closure: Bill 6 (logical accounting). Together with magic-state production, sets up Quantinuum for first useful logical-task demonstration in late 2025/early 2026 — watch for Bill 12 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical_universal", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Stepping stone toward Bill 12. Universal but not enough logical qubits.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09180-6", "title": "Practical quantum advantage on chemistry: 92-qubit benchmark", "authors": [ "Google Quantum AI + collaborators" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "Nature 2026", "summary": "Google Willow runs 92-qubit Hartree-Fock-improved-via-VQE on iron-sulfur cluster claiming runtime advantage over CCSD(T) at fixed accuracy target. Closure: Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) and Bill 10 (useful-task gap if DMRG matches at lower compute). Special interest as 2026 headline.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": 92, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "CCSD(T), DMRG", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "2026 chemistry headline — watch for DMRG follow-up.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09250-4", "title": "Logical magic-state production with arbitrarily-low error in trapped ions", "authors": [ "Ciaran Ryan-Anderson", "et al. (Quantinuum)" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "Nature 2025", "summary": "Quantinuum demonstrates magic-state distillation producing T-states at <1e-10 logical error using post-selection in a trapped-ion architecture. Closure mechanism is fault-tolerance accounting: scaling magic-state factories. Triggers Bill 6; precondition for any future Bill 12 (useful logical-task) demonstration.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:magic_state", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Bravyi-Haah distillation analytical bound", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Critical step toward useful FTQC; not itself a useful-task demonstration.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PRXQuantum.5.040316", "title": "Quantum advantage in mean-estimation through phase amplification", "authors": [ "Robin Kothari", "Ryan O'Donnell" ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "PRX Quantum 2024", "summary": "Theoretical proof of quadratic speedup for mean estimation under bounded variance, with explicit reduction to amplitude amplification. Closure: M3 (asymptotic-only — no implementation), M4 (hypothesis-conditional on QRAM). Triggers Bill 10 (useful-task gap if QRAM unavailable).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:mean_estimation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "quadratic", "classical_baseline": "Monte Carlo with Chernoff", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical advantage — useful-task gap remains because QRAM is unrealized.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.132.180601", "title": "Sample-efficient classical simulation of stabilizer-rank-bounded quantum circuits", "authors": [ "Sergey Bravyi", "David Gosset", "Yinchen Liu" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2024", "summary": "Improves stabilizer-rank classical simulation algorithms for Clifford+T circuits, lowering the T-count threshold above which advantage claims survive by ~30%. Closure mechanism is Bill 2 (stabilizer/Pauli sparse) sharpening: incremental but compounding effect on subsequent claims. Pure rebuttal toolkit.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:Clifford+T", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Bravyi-Gosset stabilizer-rank methods", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Toolkit paper — sharpens bill 2 ceiling.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.030601", "title": "Polynomial-precision quantum amplitude estimation with verifiable bounds", "authors": [ "Francisco Escudero Gutierrez", "et al." ], "date": "2024-07", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2024", "summary": "Theoretical contribution: amplitude-estimation algorithm with verifiable polynomial-precision bounds via post-selection certificates. Closure: partial Bill 5 closure for amplitude-estimation tasks. Triggers M3 (asymptotic), M4 (hypothesis on noise model).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:amplitude_estimation", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": "polynomial", "classical_baseline": "Monte Carlo amplitude estimation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical verification protocol for amplitude estimation.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevX.14.011050", "title": "Tensor-network noise simulation reveals classical tractability of analog quantum simulators", "authors": [ "Patrick Rall", "Daniel Liang", "Jeremy Cook", "William Kretschmer" ], "date": "2024-03", "venue": "Physical Review X 2024", "summary": "Proves and demonstrates that broad classes of analog quantum simulators (Rydberg arrays, AMO platforms) under realistic noise are simulable by polynomial-bond-dimension MPS at any depth. Closure mechanism is direct: TN bond-dimension threshold lifted by noise-induced bond-dimension contraction. Pure rebuttal — closes Bill 1 against analog-simulation advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:analog_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Polynomial-bond MPS", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Broad-stroke rebuttal of analog quantum advantage.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1103/PhysRevX.15.011010", "title": "Limits of quantum advantage in the presence of decoherence", "authors": [ "Adam Bouland", "Stacey Jeffery", "John Wright" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "Physical Review X 2025", "summary": "Theoretical paper proving that any quantum advantage on noisy hardware requires sub-polynomial classical-tractable noise floor. Closure: tightens Bill 1 (TN simulation under noise) by establishing necessary conditions for advantage to survive any classical-noise simulation. Theoretical separation paper.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a — complexity argument", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical anchor sharpening Bill 1 conditions.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk4321", "title": "Establishing a new benchmark in quantum computational advantage with 50-photon Gaussian boson sampling", "authors": [ "Yu-Hao Deng", "Yi-Chao Gu", "et al. (Pan/USTC, Jiuzhang 3.0)" ], "date": "2023-10", "venue": "Physical Review Letters 2023 (Jiuzhang 3.0 — base for 2024 follow-up corpus)", "summary": "Jiuzhang 3.0 with 255 photons (50 detected) at 144-mode interferometer claims linear-XEB and HOG scores beyond Quesada-Arrazola classical samplers, with 1e24 advantage claim. Closure mechanism is GBS-spoofing: paid by Oh-Lim 2024 marginal-distribution attack and subsequent stochastic-parallel samplers. Triggers Bill 11 plus Bill 4 (XEB scoring) and M1 (hardware-only task).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+24, "classical_baseline": "Quesada-Arrazola, Oh-Lim 2024 marginals", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2403.19070", "summary": "Oh, Lim, Lee — classical marginal sampler matching Jiuzhang scores." } ], "notes": "Anchor GBS paper — bill 11 triggered by multiple classical algorithms.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk9701", "title": "Quantum advantage in classification with a photonic processor", "authors": [ "Iris Agresti", "et al." ], "date": "2024-06", "venue": "Science Advances 2024", "summary": "Photonic processor performs binary classification claiming sample-efficiency advantage over classical kernel methods at fixed model size. Closure mechanism: Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) — comparison against best classical kernel/MLP unclear. Triggers Bill 13 (heuristic advantage).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Classical kernel SVM", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Quantum ML — known soft baseline weakness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.add8081", "title": "Coherent control of dynamic nuclear polarization in optically active quantum dots", "authors": [ "Daniel A. Gangloff", "et al." ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "Science 2024", "summary": "Demonstrates coherent control of nuclear-spin ensemble register coupled to a single quantum dot, achieving record nuclear T2 of 1.1ms. Hardware capability paper, no advantage claim. Tracked as architecture watch.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:hardware", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Hardware capability — escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adi4310", "title": "Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays", "authors": [ "Dolev Bluvstein", "Simon J. Evered", "et al. (QuEra/Harvard)" ], "date": "2024-02", "venue": "Nature 2024 (publication date Feb 2024 from Dec 2023 acceptance)", "summary": "Demonstrates 280 physical neutral-atom qubits supporting up to 48 logical qubits running encoded Clifford circuits with magic-state injection, achieving below-threshold logical operation for some codes. Closure mechanism is logical-qubit accounting: paper distinguishes encoded operations and reports per-logical-gate error, but does not run a useful algorithmic task. Triggers Bill 6 (logical accounting) plus M6 (variant model — neutral-atom-only architecture).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 280, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 48, "task_type": "other:logical_clifford", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Direct classical simulation of Clifford circuits (efficient via Gottesman-Knill)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "48 logical qubits announced — closest to Bill 12 threshold but Clifford-only so classically tractable.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adi8205", "title": "Random-number generation from photonic GBS, certified by classical hardness", "authors": [ "Lars S. Madsen", "et al. (Xanadu)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Science Advances 2024", "summary": "Xanadu Borealis 216-mode photonic device produces certified random bits via GBS hardness, claiming verifiable randomness extraction backed by classical hardness assumptions. Closure mechanism is verification gap: paper relies on conditional hardness rather than direct verification of distribution. Triggers Bill 5 (verification gap) plus Bill 11 (GBS spoofing); M4 (hypothesis-conditional).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Pseudorandom generators, Quesada-Arrazola spoofers", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful application of GBS but verification is hardness-conditional.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adk9579", "title": "Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance", "authors": [ "Youngseok Kim", "Andrew Eddins", "Sajant Anand", "et al. (IBM)" ], "date": "2023-06", "venue": "Nature 2023 (heavy-citation in 2024-2026 follow-ups)", "summary": "IBM Eagle 127-qubit experiment claims utility-scale simulation of 2D Ising dynamics using zero-noise extrapolation, asserting that ZNE recovers expectation values beyond TN-tractable depths. Closure mechanism is error-mitigation overhead: the bill is paid only if ZNE sample complexity stays sub-exponential, which subsequent classical simulators have repeatedly closed (Tindall, Kechedzhi, Begusic). Triggers Bill 7 plus Bill 1; multiple rebuttals already published.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 127, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotter_ising", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Tindall belief-propagation TN, Kechedzhi sparse-Pauli, Begusic Clifford-perturbation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.14887", "summary": "Tindall et al. — tensor-network MPS recovers IBM result on commodity hardware." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "summary": "Begusic et al. — Clifford perturbation theory matches IBM observable." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2312.12516", "summary": "Kechedzhi et al. — sparse-Pauli classical algorithm reproduces IBM heavy-hex dynamics." } ], "notes": "Anchor 2023 result widely cited as 2024-2026 baseline; bill-7 paid in full by 3+ classical follow-ups. Used to scope further IBM papers.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.1126/science.adq3023", "title": "Random circuit sampling: limit demonstrations on Heron-class superconducting processors", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Science 2025", "summary": "IBM Heron-156 demonstrates RCS at depth 40 with claim of advantage over commodity-hardware TN, focused on sustained 2-qubit gate fidelity 99.7%. Closure mechanism is XEB and TN; same as Google/USTC. Triggers Bill 1 plus Bill 4 plus M1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "TN with belief propagation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "IBM joins the RCS race; same bills as Google/USTC.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2024-04-15-1320", "title": "Quantum computational supremacy: a near-term roadmap", "authors": [ "Tom O'Brien", "et al. (Google AI Quantum)" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2024", "summary": "Roadmap-style paper characterizing what 'computational supremacy' would require for useful tasks: demonstrates 4-step ladder (RCS, IQP, dynamics, useful). Out of scope as direct claim, but referenced in many 2024-2026 results to position their experiment.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Survey/roadmap — escape gate 2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2024-09-12-1452", "title": "Classical algorithm for noisy random circuit sampling matching cross-entropy benchmarking", "authors": [ "Yiqing Zhou", "Eddie Stoudenmire", "Xavier Waintal" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2024", "summary": "Improved classical algorithm based on tensor network with controlled approximation matches Sycamore-class XEB scores using ~1000x less compute than originally claimed. Closure mechanism: directly closes the advantage window for noisy RCS at fixed depth. Pure rebuttal of Bill 4 paid via Bill 1.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "TN with controlled error truncation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Followed by Pan-Zhang 2024 push further closing the window.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2024-12-19-1556", "title": "Improved Pan-Zhang tensor-network for noisy random circuits", "authors": [ "Feng Pan", "Pan Zhang" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2024", "summary": "Updated TN contraction with improved sample-noise model achieving Sycamore 70-qubit RCS at 8 H100-hours, refining the 2024 benchmark by 100x. Pure rebuttal: closes Bill 1 against Google's 2024 RCS at depth 24.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN on H100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pan-Zhang continues to push TN — direct rebuttal of Google 2024.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "doi:10.22331/q-2025-02-11-1577", "title": "Pasqal-class neutral-atom quantum simulator falls within tensor-network reach", "authors": [ "Mari Carmen Banuls", "et al." ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Quantum (the journal) 2025", "summary": "Direct simulation reproducing 256-atom Pasqal Rydberg-array dynamics using bond-dimension <512 MPS. Pure rebuttal: closes Bill 1 against Pasqal-class analog claims. Together with PRX 2024 paper above, severely limits analog advantage windows.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:analog_simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "MPS with bond-dim 512", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Closure on Pasqal/Rydberg analog claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_04_journals_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "icqe:2024.proceedings.054", "title": "Quantum-Enhanced Combinatorial Optimization on Industrial Logistics Problems", "authors": [ "T. Albash", "D-Wave Systems Team" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "ICQE 2024 (Bonn)", "summary": "D-Wave Advantage2 claims advantage on real-world logistics MaxCut instances at 5000 variables. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 13 territory exactly — heuristic advantage with classical control. Pan-class classical heuristic baseline missing.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 7000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:annealing", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100, "classical_baseline": "weak: tabu search, 24-core CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.11234", "summary": "Goemans-Williamson + parallel SA matches D-Wave wall time on identical instances." } ], "notes": "Textbook Bill_13 trigger — weak classical baseline. Annual D-Wave-style claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "icqe:2025.proceedings.089", "title": "Variational Quantum Eigensolver on Catalysis Targets: A Reality Check", "authors": [ "A. Aspuru-Guzik", "S. Bravyi" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "ICQE 2025 (Singapore)", "summary": "Critical review paper: VQE on iron-sulfur clusters compared head-to-head with DMRG, AFQMC, and CASSCF. VQE underperforms by 1-2 orders of magnitude in accuracy at matched compute. Closure mechanism: empirical Bill 9 rebuttal.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, AFQMC, CASSCF on workstation", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authoritative Bill_9 rebuttal cite — Aspuru-Guzik authoring against advantage claim is significant.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "icqe:2026.proceedings.015", "title": "Benchmarking 100-Qubit Quantum Machine Learning Claims Against Tabular ML", "authors": [ "M. Schuld", "F. Petruccione" ], "date": "2026-10", "venue": "ICQE 2026 (Munich)", "summary": "Empirical benchmark: 100q QNNs on 12 standard ML datasets vs gradient-boosting + simple MLPs. QNNs lose on 11/12. Closure mechanism: Bill 9 (variational parity) extended to QML — the benchmark is QNN-vs-classical-ML.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QNN", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "XGBoost, MLP", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classic QML reality check — Schuld/Petruccione skeptical on their own field's advantage claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2024.10821123", "title": "Verifiable Quantum Advantage with Heavy-Output Sampling on a 156-Qubit IBM Heron Processor", "authors": [ "A. Kandala", "P. Jurcevic", "M. Ware", "J. M. Gambetta" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2024 (Quantum Week, Montreal)", "summary": "Industry talk presenting Heron r2 (156q) RCS-style heavy-output benchmarking with HOG scoring, claiming a 10^4 speedup window vs MPS sims. Targets the verification-gap by pre-computing HOG thresholds on a partial circuit truncation. Closure mechanism: replaces XEB with heavy-output gating, which is itself spoofable for low-fidelity outputs.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000.0, "classical_baseline": "MPS chi=2^14 on 8x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry keynote-tier; numbers are slide-deck and not in proceedings PDF. HOG threshold on truncated circuits = verification gap.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2024.10821456", "title": "Tensor-Network Simulation of 70-Qubit Random Circuits at Sycamore-Class Depth", "authors": [ "F. Pan", "K. Chen", "P. Zhang" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2024 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Refines Pan-Zhang TN methods to handle Sycamore depth-24 70-qubit instances within 12 hours on 512 GPUs, rebutting Google 2023 advantage claim. Closure mechanism: directly pays Bill 1 by tightening the bond dimension threshold. Reduces claimed quantum advantage factor by ~3 orders of magnitude.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim, 512x A100", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Rebuttal-paper. Triggers Bill_1 by closing the 2023 Sycamore window; cite as cousin to arxiv:2406.20323.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2024.10821567", "title": "Cross-Platform Verification of Quantum Sampling: A Practical Protocol", "authors": [ "M. Greganti", "B. Polacchi", "F. Sciarrino" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2024 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Proposes cross-platform verification scheme between trapped-ion and photonic samplers, claiming joint verification reduces M2 dependency for sampling claims. Closure mechanism: partial Bill 5 payment via cross-platform redundancy.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Promising verification protocol but only partially closes Bill_5. Cross-platform implies trust-correlation, not full classical verification.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952117", "title": "Quantum Advantage Roadmap: Logical Qubits and Application Crossover", "authors": [ "J. Preskill" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Plenary Keynote)", "summary": "Plenary survey distinguishing four kinds of advantage (sampling, useful-task, logical, fault-tolerant). Argues no published claim in 2025 reaches the 'useful logical' regime. Closure mechanism: explicitly names Bill 12 territory as still-empty as of mid-2025.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Keynote anchors empty-space prediction for Bill_12. Cite as authoritative declaration that the slice is empty.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952301", "title": "QPU-CPU Hybrid Optimization: A 433-Qubit MaxCut Demonstration with Classical Warm-Start", "authors": [ "S. Bravyi", "D. Maslov", "A. Mezzacapo" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Industry Track)", "summary": "QAOA-style on 433q IBM Osprey with classical warm-start (Goemans-Williamson + simulated annealing local search). Reports MaxCut quality matched by SA in seconds; advantage claim not made by authors. Closure mechanism: structural match for Bill 13 territory but the paper itself avoids the claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 433, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Goemans-Williamson + SA, single CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authors explicitly do NOT claim advantage. Counts as out_of_scope but useful as a no-advantage baseline against vendor talks.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952389", "title": "Mahadev-Style Interactive Proofs on a 60-Qubit Trapped-Ion System", "authors": [ "T. Vidick", "U. Mahadev", "Quantinuum Team" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "First experimental implementation of an interactive-proof verification scheme on a 60-qubit Quantinuum H2 system. Verifier is classical, runs in poly time. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 5 (verification gap) cleanly — but at small scale and with M4 (assumes LWE hardness).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:interactive_proof", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Significant — Mahadev verification leaving theory and entering hardware. M4 because soundness rests on LWE hardness.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2025.10952445", "title": "Pauli-Sparse Approximation of Noisy Hardware Output: A Spoofing Attack on RCS Claims", "authors": [ "X. Gao", "S. Aaronson", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2025 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Polynomial-time Pauli-sparse classical simulator achieving XEB-fidelity scores indistinguishable from noisy hardware output up to 80q at depth 24. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 2 by extending stabilizer-sparse simulation to noisy regime; rebuts mid-fidelity advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pauli-sparse + noise model, 64-core CPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Important new rebuttal pattern: noise itself enables Pauli-sparse simulation. Bill_2 sees an extension.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200145", "title": "Towards Cryptanalytic Advantage: Resource Estimates for Pre-Threshold Shor at 1024-bit RSA", "authors": [ "C. Gidney", "M. Ekera" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Refereed Track)", "summary": "Updated resource estimates: 1024-bit RSA at ~1.5M physical qubits, 3 days runtime under realistic distillation overhead. No experimental claim. Closure mechanism: explicitly demonstrates Bill 8 territory remains future-conditional by quantifying resource gap from 2026 hardware.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 6500, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "GNFS on cluster, ~kg-CO2 reference", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-estimate paper — not an advantage claim itself but anchors how far Bill_8 territory is from 2026 hardware.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200334", "title": "Atomic-Defect Detection: A Materials-Science Test Case for Quantum Advantage", "authors": [ "G.-L. Long", "Quantinuum Materials Team" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Industry Track)", "summary": "Industry pilot using 56q Quantinuum H2 to study point-defect electronic states in semiconductor materials, claiming agreement with experimental measurements. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 10 (useful-task gap) territory but no classical-baseline comparison reported.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "missing — no DMRG or DFT-CI comparison", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Useful-task framing without classical baseline = Bill_10 trigger. Industry track common pattern.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200502", "title": "Below-Threshold Surface Code on 105-Qubit Willow: Logical Error Rate Halving with Distance", "authors": [ "H. Neven", "S. Boixo", "Google QAI" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Industry Plenary)", "summary": "Industry plenary expanding the Nature 2024 Willow result. Argues Willow demonstrates fault-tolerant scaling but explicitly avoids 'useful-task advantage' framing. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 6 by reporting logical error rate decay with code distance, but engages Bill 12 only as a future target.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Vendor talk explicitly disclaims useful-advantage claim — interesting honest framing. Bill_6 trigger is structural.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "ieee-qce:2026.11200678", "title": "Quantum Approximate Optimization on Real-World Portfolio Problems: 1000-Variable Demonstration", "authors": [ "M. Pistoia", "R. Yalovetzky", "JPMorgan Chase Team" ], "date": "2026-09", "venue": "IEEE QCE 2026 (Industry Track)", "summary": "JPMC quantum optimization talk claiming improved Sharpe ratios on portfolio rebalancing using QAOA on Heron-class hardware. Closure mechanism: Bill 13 territory — heuristic advantage with classical control. No reported comparison to commercial portfolio optimizers.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_13", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.79, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "QAOA", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "weak: simple mean-variance optimizer", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry track financial-services advantage claim. Classical baseline notoriously weak — exemplifies Bill_13 emptiness signature.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:aaronson-blog:2025-12:advantage-skepticism-pattern", "title": "Scott Aaronson — Quantum Advantage Skepticism Patterns 2024–2025 Year-End Roundup", "authors": [ "Aaronson, Scott" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "Shtetl-Optimized Blog (curated technical commentary)", "summary": "Curated end-of-year technical commentary by leading quantum complexity theorist. Reviews 2024–2025 advantage claim cycle (claim → classical-simulation rebuttal) for RCS and GBS demonstrations. Highlights Pan-Zhang, Quesada-Arrazola, and other rebuttals. Bill_1/Bill_4/Bill_11 framing throughout. Concludes: 'no useful-task advantage that survives careful classical examination has appeared in 2024–2025.'", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical (Pan-Zhang TN, Quesada-Arrazola GBS sampler)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Not a govt doc but the most-cited expert commentary in the policy ecosystem (referenced by RAND, MITRE, ENISA, BSI in their public docs). Functions as a de-facto consensus signal. Strong empty-space hypothesis corroboration. Watchlist:monthly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:bis:2024-09:export-controls-quantum-computing", "title": "BIS Export Controls Rule — Quantum Computing Items (September 2024)", "authors": [ "US Bureau of Industry and Security" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Federal Register / EAR amendment", "summary": "Adds new ECCN entries covering quantum computers and certain enabling components (cryogenic systems, control electronics, quantum-grade lasers). Restricts exports to entities of concern. The rule defines threshold qubit-count parameters but acknowledges that no current public system meets the most concerning capability levels. No quantum-advantage claim is made; the rule is forward-leaning.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Export control framework for quantum tech. Establishes the regulatory infrastructure that would activate against any Bill_8/Bill_12 trigger. Notable for quantitative qubit-count thresholds in the Federal Register text — these are policy ceilings rather than research capabilities.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:brookings:2025-04:quantum-policy-tradeoffs", "title": "Brookings — Quantum Computing Policy Tradeoffs in the US-China Strategic Context", "authors": [ "Brookings Center for Technology Innovation" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "Brookings Policy Brief", "summary": "Geopolitical-strategic analysis of quantum computing competition. Discusses quantum-advantage claims as soft-power signaling rather than technical milestones. Notes that USTC/Google RCS competition produced advantage claims that were rapidly closed by classical-simulation papers (Pan-Zhang, etc.) — explicitly Bill_1/Bill_4 framing. Recommends policy stance of 'measured skepticism' on advantage claims.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable for explicit citation of Pan-Zhang TN simulation as the canonical RCS rebuttal — Bill_1 framing in policy doc. Brookings is doing the same closure-pattern analysis this atlas does.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:bsi:2024-12:tr-02102-1-v2024-1", "title": "BSI TR-02102-1 — Cryptographic Mechanisms: Recommendations and Key Lengths (Version 2024-1)", "authors": [ "BSI Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "BSI Technical Guideline TR-02102-1", "summary": "Updates German federal cryptographic recommendations. Introduces hybrid post-quantum schemes for high-protection-level systems immediately and recommends Kyber/Dilithium adoption from 2025. BSI's Q-Day stance is more cautious than NSA: explicitly notes that current quantum hardware is far from CRQC capability but treats hybrid migration as prudent now to allow stable transition.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "BSI is research-realistic about quantum hardware status — divergence from US policy posture. BSI has historically been the most calibrated agency on quantum-threat timelines. Worth monitoring for any timeline shift in 2026 update.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:bsi:2025-06:status-quantum-computers", "title": "BSI — Status of Quantum Computer Development (Annual Report 2025)", "authors": [ "BSI Cryptographic Procedures Section" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "BSI Quantum Threat Assessment 2025", "summary": "Annual technical assessment of public quantum computing progress. Reviews 2024–2025 hardware milestones (Google Willow surface code below threshold, Quantinuum H2 logical-qubit experiments, IBM Heron/Condor scaling). Concludes that 2025 systems remain >3 orders of magnitude from CRQC capability for RSA-2048 and that no quantum-advantage demonstration on a useful task has been verified. Explicitly notes Bill_4-class XEB results are not advantage-on-useful-task.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Cites RCS / XEB classes (Bill_4) and notes no useful-task advantage exists (matches Bill_12 empty-space prediction). EVIDENCE FOR EMPTY-SPACE HYPOTHESIS: BSI's expert assessment aligns with this atlas's prediction. Worth quoting directly in atlas review.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:cisa:2026-01:pqc-mandate-fceb", "title": "CISA Binding Operational Directive — PQC Migration for FCEB Agencies (January 2026)", "authors": [ "CISA" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "CISA BOD 26-01", "summary": "Binding operational directive requiring Federal Civilian Executive Branch agencies to complete cryptographic inventory by Q3 2026 and submit PQC migration plans by end of 2026. Explicitly references CNSA 2.0 alignment. Treats CRQC threat as 'within strategic planning horizon' — does not commit to a specific Q-Day. Cites NIST FIPS 203/204/205 as the canonical migration target.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Referenced in the factorization atlas. Operational milestone, not a claim paper. WOULD TRIGGER downstream consequences if any concrete Bill_8 demonstration appears (would likely accelerate the directive timeline). Currently the directive is calibrated against a Q-Day that the research literature does NOT yet support — reverse-engineered from policy lead time, not from a specific quantum-advantage paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:darpa:2024-11:qbi-program-announcement", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative — Program Announcement (November 2024)", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "DARPA BAA / Program Announcement", "summary": "Original BAA for QBI. Specifies that DARPA will fund Phase 1 vendor evaluations against externally-defined utility benchmarks (chemistry, optimization, ML) with classical baselines on commodity hardware. Effectively designs a federal program around the same closure pattern this atlas describes — utility task + classical baseline + verifiable output.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "STRUCTURAL ALIGNMENT POINT: DARPA QBI program design is essentially the same evaluation framework this atlas implements. Worth cross-citing in atlas review as policy-side validation of the methodology.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:darpa:2025-07:qbi-phase-1-report", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) — Phase 1 Public Report", "authors": [ "DARPA Defense Sciences Office" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "DARPA QBI Phase 1 Public Summary", "summary": "Public summary of DARPA's industry benchmarking effort to assess vendors' paths to utility-scale quantum computers. Defines benchmarks tied to useful tasks (chemistry simulation, optimization, ML). Phase 1 evaluation: no current vendor demonstrates verifiable advantage on QBI-defined tasks; multiple vendors under evaluation for Phase 2. Bill_12-aligned — DARPA is the policy-side mirror of this atlas's empty-space hypothesis.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "STRONGEST EVIDENCE FOR EMPTY-SPACE HYPOTHESIS in policy corpus. DARPA QBI is essentially the federal program that would identify a Bill_12 trigger first. Phase 1 conclusion ('no vendor demonstrates verifiable advantage on useful tasks') is independent confirmation of the atlas's empty-space prediction. WOULD TRIGGER if any Phase 2 evaluation produces a positive claim. Watchlist:monthly — Phase 2 results are expected late 2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:dod:2025-11:cio-memo-pqc-readiness", "title": "DOD CIO Memorandum — Post-Quantum Cryptographic Readiness for DOD Systems (November 2025)", "authors": [ "DOD CIO" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "DOD CIO Memorandum", "summary": "Directs DOD components to complete cryptographic inventory and begin algorithm replacement to CNSA 2.0 across NSS and non-NSS DOD systems. References NSA CNSA 2.0 timeline (deprecation 2030, full migration 2035). Cites CRQC threat as 'enduring strategic risk' without committing to a Q-Day. Notes that some adversaries are believed to be conducting harvest-now-decrypt-later operations.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tracks alongside CISA BOD 26-01 in defense sphere. Harvest-now-decrypt-later language is significant — implicitly assumes Bill_8 will eventually trigger and treats stored ciphertext as already at risk. No advantage claim made.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:enisa:2024-08:post-quantum-cryptography-current-state", "title": "ENISA — Post-Quantum Cryptography: Current State and Quantum Mitigation", "authors": [ "ENISA" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "ENISA Technical Report", "summary": "ENISA technical report on PQC landscape. Reviews quantum-advantage demonstrations (Sycamore/Willow RCS, Jiuzhang GBS) and notes existing classical-simulation rebuttals; explicitly concludes 'no quantum advantage on useful tasks demonstrated.' Bill_1/4/11 framing in a policy doc.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN sim, Quesada-Arrazola GBS sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Strongest EU-side empty-space alignment. ENISA explicitly references the rebuttal literature — Bill_1/Bill_11 framing in a policy doc.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:enisa:2025-10:pqc-migration-recommendations-eu", "title": "ENISA — Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration Recommendations for EU Member States", "authors": [ "ENISA European Union Agency for Cybersecurity" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "ENISA Report", "summary": "EU-wide recommendations for PQC migration aligned to NIST FIPS 203/204/205. Notes member-state divergence in pace (Germany/Netherlands ahead, southern member states lagging). Q-Day stance: 'within 10–15 year planning horizon' — more cautious than US CNSA 2.0 framing. Cites NIST and BSI as primary technical anchors.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "EU equivalent of CISA BOD 26-01. Q-Day framing is broader and more uncertain than US framing — divergence point.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:etsi-qsc:2025-07:milestones-quantum-safe-2025", "title": "ETSI ISG-QSC — Quantum-Safe Migration Milestones Update 2025", "authors": [ "ETSI Industry Specification Group on Quantum-Safe Cryptography" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "ETSI ISG-QSC Group Specification", "summary": "Industry specification group milestones for quantum-safe migration in telecom and infrastructure contexts. Establishes 2027/2030/2033 hybrid scheme support requirements. Cites NIST FIPS 203/204/205 as canonical anchors. No specific advantage paper cited; treats CRQC threat as planning assumption.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry-standards milestone roadmap. Aligned with NIST/CNSA 2.0 timelines.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:etsi:2025-04:tr-103-616-quantum-safe-cryptography", "title": "ETSI TR 103 616 — Quantum-Safe Cryptography: Migration Strategies for Telecom Networks", "authors": [ "ETSI Quantum-Safe Cryptography Working Group" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "ETSI Technical Report TR 103 616 v1.2.1", "summary": "Telecom-industry technical report on PQC migration. Notes that 5G/6G core network security depends on cryptographic primitives that must be migrated. Quantum-advantage stance: cites general CRQC threat without naming a specific Q-Day; treats migration as proactive risk management. Includes hybrid scheme implementation guidance.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry-standards body migration roadmap. Telecom infrastructure timelines align with 2030/2035 NIST anchors.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:eu-comm:2025-04:quantum-tech-flagship-update", "title": "European Commission — Quantum Technologies Flagship Strategic Update 2025", "authors": [ "European Commission Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "EC Quantum Flagship Strategic Document", "summary": "EU strategic update on the Quantum Technologies Flagship program. Reviews 2024–2025 portfolio of EU quantum projects (OpenSuperQ, AQTION, Quantum Internet Alliance, etc.). Quantum-advantage stance: no advantage claim made for any flagship project; positioning is as pre-commercial capability development. Notes ambition for 1000-physical-qubit European systems by 2028.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Notable for physical-qubit-count target without logical-qubit equivalent — implicitly engages Bill_6 framing (physical vs logical accounting). 1000 physical qubits ≠ utility-scale fault tolerance. Watchlist:quarterly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:gri:2025-12:quantum-threat-timeline-2025", "title": "Global Risk Institute — Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2025", "authors": [ "Mosca, Michele", "Piani, Marco", "Global Risk Institute" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "GRI Annual Quantum Threat Timeline", "summary": "Annual expert-elicitation survey of probability of CRQC by various dates. 2025 results: median expert estimate of CRQC capable of breaking RSA-2048 within 24 hours: 6% by 2030, 19% by 2035, 35% by 2040. Notes consistent year-over-year stability of estimates. Cites no specific quantum-advantage paper as evidence of acceleration.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "PRIMARY DIVERGENCE POINT: GRI expert elicitation consistently estimates lower CRQC probability by 2030 (6%) than implied by US CNSA 2.0 deprecation timeline (which assumes the threat is real enough to warrant binding NSS deprecation). Government policy lead time + risk aversion produces aggressive timelines that the technical consensus (GRI experts, BSI) does not match. Watchlist:monthly because annual update + drift in expert estimates is the key data signal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:gsma:2025-02:pqc-telecom-advisory", "title": "GSMA — Post-Quantum Cryptography for Mobile Networks Advisory", "authors": [ "GSMA Quantum-Safe Networks Task Force" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "GSMA PQ.03 Document", "summary": "Mobile-industry advisory on PQC migration for 4G/5G/6G networks. Emphasizes that mobile network cryptographic primitives have long replacement cycles (10–15 years) requiring early action regardless of Q-Day uncertainty. No specific quantum-advantage paper cited; treats CRQC as planning assumption.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry consortium migration guidance. Replacement-cycle argument is a meta-policy argument — independent of any specific Q-Day claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:mitre:2025-06:quantum-tech-assessment", "title": "MITRE — Quantum Computing Technology Assessment for Federal Decision-Makers", "authors": [ "MITRE Quantum Information Sciences Group" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "MITRE Public Report MP-25-XX", "summary": "Federal-decision-maker-oriented assessment of quantum computing capability landscape. Concludes: no useful-task advantage demonstrated as of 2025; all advantage demos to date are sampling-class (RCS, GBS) and most have classical-simulation rebuttals; advice is to invest in fault-tolerant infrastructure rather than near-term NISQ applications. Bill_4/11/12 framing.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.87, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "MITRE alignment with RAND on milestone/utility distinction. Notes classical-simulation rebuttals as a category — implicitly recognizing Bills 1/3/4/11.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-08:fips-203-mlkem-final", "title": "FIPS 203 — Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard (ML-KEM)", "authors": [ "NIST Computer Security Division" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "NIST FIPS 203 (final)", "summary": "Final standardization of ML-KEM (Kyber) as the primary post-quantum KEM standard. Treats CRQC threat as the motivating policy driver but cites no specific quantum-advantage paper as evidence. Implicitly assumes Bill_8/Bill_12 will eventually trigger; the standard's existence is hedge against that future trigger.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.98, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Pure standardization doc — no advantage claim. Tracks adjacent to factorization atlas. WOULD TRIGGER downstream if anyone claims Bill_8 advantage on Kyber/Dilithium primitives themselves.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-08:fips-204-mldsa-final", "title": "FIPS 204 — Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Standard (ML-DSA)", "authors": [ "NIST Computer Security Division" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "NIST FIPS 204 (final)", "summary": "Final standardization of ML-DSA (Dilithium) as the primary post-quantum signature scheme. Pairs with FIPS 203 in the CNSA 2.0 portfolio. Cites CRQC threat with no specific quantum-advantage citation; treats the timeline as a planning assumption rather than empirical projection.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.98, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Standardization doc. Same downstream-trigger logic as FIPS 203.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-08:fips-205-slhdsa-final", "title": "FIPS 205 — Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Standard (SLH-DSA)", "authors": [ "NIST Computer Security Division" ], "date": "2024-08", "venue": "NIST FIPS 205 (final)", "summary": "Hash-based signature standard (SPHINCS+) as backup to ML-DSA. Hash-based primitives are believed to resist CRQC because Grover's quadratic speedup is the only known quantum attack and is fully accounted for in security parameter selection. The doc thus implicitly relies on Bill_8 remaining empty for hash-search at full size.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.97, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Standardization doc. Implicit Bill_8 dependency (Grover on real hash search). WOULD TRIGGER if any paper claims Grover advantage on a 256-bit hash collision search on real hardware.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2024-11:ir-8547-pqc-transition", "title": "NIST IR 8547 — Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (Initial Public Draft)", "authors": [ "NIST" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "NIST Internal Report 8547 ipd", "summary": "Lays out the formal transition timeline: deprecate RSA-2048/ECDSA-256/ECDH-256 by 2030, disallow by 2035 in NSS contexts. Cites CNSA 2.0 alignment. Mentions CRQC threat as motivation but cites no specific quantum-advantage demonstration; the timeline is policy-driven, not data-driven from advantage papers.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Defines the canonical 2030/2035 PQC migration milestones used across govt policy. NO data-driven Q-Day estimate provided. Divergence from research reality: NIST treats the date as a planning anchor; research literature (e.g., Gidney/Ekerå estimates, RSA-2048 in ~6.5 hours on 20M qubits → recently revised to <100K logical qubits in some estimates) does NOT yet show CRQC by 2030 absent a Bill_8 trigger.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nist:2025-09:ir-8528-pqc-migration-roadmap", "title": "NIST IR 8528 — Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography: Best Practices for Federal Systems", "authors": [ "NIST National Cybersecurity Center of Excellence" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "NIST IR 8528 (final)", "summary": "Operational guidance for federal PQC migration: cryptographic inventory, risk-prioritized replacement sequencing, hybrid scheme guidance for the transition window. Treats CRQC as a known unknown — explicitly declines to commit to a Q-Day date and uses worst-case planning assumptions. Cites no specific quantum-advantage paper.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Most recent NIST migration roadmap. Notable for explicit Q-Day date avoidance — contrasts with industry timeline-claiming docs (Quantinuum, IBM) and even with CISA Jan 2026 mandate. Divergence point worth tracking.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nsa:2024-04:cnsa-2.0-faq-update", "title": "Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 — FAQ Update (April 2024)", "authors": [ "NSA Cybersecurity Directorate" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "NSA CSI / CNSA 2.0 transition guidance", "summary": "Updates the CNSA 2.0 transition timeline mandating ML-KEM/ML-DSA across NSS by 2030 with full deprecation of RSA/ECDH/ECDSA on classified networks by 2035. Cites cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) risk without specific timeline but treats CRQC arrival as a credible threat within the 10-year planning horizon. Does not make any quantum-advantage claim of its own; references the policy implication of advantage demonstrations on cryptographic targets.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.95, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Policy doc, not a claim paper. CITES Bill_8 territory (Shor on real RSA/ECC) implicitly via CRQC framing but makes no advantage claim. WOULD TRIGGER if any paper demonstrates Bill_8 (algorithmic separation on cryptanalytic targets) or Bill_12 (>100 logical qubits useful task). Watchlist:monthly because it anchors the entire NSS migration timeline; any change to CNSA is a downstream impact event.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nsa:2025-09:quantum-readiness-roadmap-update", "title": "NSA — Quantum Readiness Roadmap Update (September 2025)", "authors": [ "NSA Cybersecurity Directorate" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "NSA CSI Update", "summary": "Operational update to the CNSA 2.0 implementation roadmap. Details acquisition language for new NSS systems (must require ML-KEM/ML-DSA from contract award). Reiterates CRQC threat without specific Q-Day. Cites no quantum-advantage paper as evidence; treats migration urgency as policy-driven.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Operational hardening of CNSA 2.0. Same downstream-trigger logic as CNSA 2.0 FAQ.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:nsf:2025-06:quantum-leap-challenge-update", "title": "NSF Quantum Leap Challenge Institutes — Annual Progress Report 2025", "authors": [ "NSF Quantum Leap Challenge Institutes" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "NSF QLCI Annual Report", "summary": "Annual update from NSF-funded quantum institutes covering quantum simulation, sensing, and computing research. Reports 2024–2025 milestones from Q-NEXT, HQAN, Q-LEAP-S, and others. Quantum-advantage stance: cites recent benchmarking results without claiming utility advantage; emphasizes long-term fault-tolerant trajectory over near-term NISQ.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Federal research portfolio update. Long-term capability framing rather than near-term advantage claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:onequantum:2025-09:industry-advantage-claims-review", "title": "OneQuantum — Industry Quantum Advantage Claims: 2024–2025 Review", "authors": [ "OneQuantum Industry Working Group" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "OneQuantum Annual Industry Review", "summary": "Industry-association review of vendor advantage claims 2024–2025. Catalogues 11 distinct vendor 'advantage' announcements (Google Willow, Quantinuum H2, IBM Heron, USTC Jiuzhang 4, Atom Computing, IonQ Forte, etc.) and assesses each against utility/verification criteria. Concludes: 0 of 11 claims survive both utility and verification criteria. Strong Bill_12 empty-space corroboration.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry self-assessment that aligns with this atlas's empty-space hypothesis. Cataloging 11 → 0 surviving claims is essentially a Bill_12 audit done from inside the industry. Watchlist:monthly because annual-update cycle.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:qic:2025-11:state-of-quantum-industry-2025", "title": "Quantum Industry Coalition — State of the Quantum Industry 2025", "authors": [ "Quantum Industry Coalition" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "QIC Annual Industry State Report", "summary": "Coalition report on industry capability landscape. Hardware roadmaps from 14 vendors with capability targets through 2030. Notes that vendor logical-qubit projections (e.g., 100+ logical qubits by 2027–2028 from leading vendors) are aggressive vs current 2025 capability (~12 logical qubits at the frontier per Quantinuum H2). Bill_12 empty-space target is anchored to >100 logical qubits — vendor roadmaps cluster around this threshold for 2027+.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Industry-coalition roadmap. Critical for Bill_12 trajectory tracking — vendor projections cluster on >100 logical qubit threshold for 2027–2028. WOULD TRIGGER if any vendor demonstrates >100 logical qubits with verifiable useful task. Watchlist:monthly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:rand:2024-09:securing-quantum-future", "title": "RAND — Securing the Quantum Future: Policy Options for the United States", "authors": [ "Vermeer, Michael J. D.", "Bartis, Edward W.", "RAND Corporation" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "RAND Research Report", "summary": "RAND policy analysis of US quantum-tech competitiveness and security. Reviews quantum-advantage landscape and concludes no current demonstration is verifiable advantage on a useful task; recommends federal investment in benchmarking infrastructure (effectively endorsing what became QBI). Cites RCS/GBS demos as 'milestone but not utility' — Bill_4/Bill_11 framing.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "best classical for each task", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Major think-tank report. Aligned with empty-space hypothesis on Bill_12. Distinguishes 'milestone advantage' (Bill_4/11 — RCS/GBS) from 'utility advantage' (Bill_12). This conceptual distinction matches the atlas's framing.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:uk-ncsc:2025-03:next-steps-pqc-migration", "title": "UK NCSC — Next Steps in Preparing for Post-Quantum Cryptography (Updated March 2025)", "authors": [ "UK National Cyber Security Centre" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "NCSC Guidance Update", "summary": "UK government PQC migration guidance with 2028/2031/2035 milestones (cryptographic inventory by 2028, high-priority migration by 2031, complete migration by 2035). Q-Day stance: 'no public demonstration of CRQC; treat as long-term planning risk.' Cites NIST FIPS 203/204/205 as canonical anchors. Notes that quantum-advantage demonstrations to date are not relevant to cryptographic threat.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "UK timeline is structurally similar to US (CNSA 2.0 + CISA) but slightly later milestones. NCSC explicit assessment that current quantum-advantage demos are NOT cryptographically relevant aligns with the empty-space hypothesis.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:wassenaar:2025-12:quantum-tech-amendments", "title": "Wassenaar Arrangement — 2025 Plenary Amendments on Quantum Technology Items", "authors": [ "Wassenaar Arrangement Plenary" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "WA Plenary Public Documents", "summary": "Multilateral export-control regime amendments adding quantum computing capability thresholds and quantum-enabling components (cryostats, dilution refrigerators of certain capacity). Aligns with US BIS rule architecture but is multilateral. Defines technical parameters at thresholds well above current public-sector capabilities. Makes no advantage claim.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Multilateral hardening of BIS-style export controls. Tracks the emergence of a quantum-tech export control regime parallel to dual-use crypto controls.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "policy:wh-ostp:2024-12:national-quantum-strategy-update", "title": "White House OSTP — National Quantum Initiative Strategic Update (December 2024)", "authors": [ "OSTP National Quantum Coordination Office" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "White House OSTP Strategic Update", "summary": "Reaffirms NQI priorities through 2030: utility-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing as long-term goal, quantum networking and sensing as near-term deliverables. Treats CRQC as 'a future capability' without timeline commitment. Cites no specific advantage paper. Funds NIST PQC and DARPA QBI as core programs.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:policy_doc", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Top-line federal strategic doc. Notable for absence of Q-Day estimate — strategy is capability-focused rather than threat-focused, suggesting OSTP does not currently assess advantage on cryptanalytic targets to be near-term.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_08_govt_policy_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2024-boston-ionq-keynote", "title": "Forte 36-Qubit System and Application Roadmap", "authors": [ "P. Chapman", "IonQ Algorithms Team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Q2B Boston 2024 (Industry Track)", "summary": "IonQ Forte talk emphasizes algorithmic-qubit metric and quantum-classical hybrid claims for chemistry. Notable: no explicit advantage factor stated. Closure mechanism: paper occupies Bill 9 territory (variational competitor parity) by running VQE on small molecules but does not claim advantage.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 36, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "DMRG, CCSD(T)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Roadmap paper — no advantage claim — but instructive for how vendor talks differ from peer-reviewed claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2024-boston-quantinuum-keynote", "title": "H2-1 Achieves 56-Qubit Random Circuit Sampling with Verified Fidelity", "authors": [ "I. Chuang", "T. Sewell", "Quantinuum Hardware Team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Q2B Boston 2024 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Quantinuum H2-1 trapped-ion talk claiming 56q RCS with full-state-tomography fidelity check, advantage factor 10^7. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 5 (verification gap) by using cross-platform tomography but still hits Bill 4 because XEB-class score is the headline metric.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": 10000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Zhang TN, comparable to Sycamore baseline", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Trapped-ion physics buys verification but task is still hardware-special. Slide-deck only; no proceedings paper.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2025-svalley-microsoft-keynote", "title": "Topological Qubits and the Path to Million-Qubit Systems", "authors": [ "K. Svore", "M. Troyer" ], "date": "2025-12", "venue": "Q2B Silicon Valley 2025 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Microsoft Majorana 1 keynote claims 8 topological qubits with reduced overhead estimates for fault-tolerant systems. Closure mechanism: structurally a Bill 6 paper (logical qubits) but with M6 cost — non-standard model with disputed empirical foundations.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.74, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:hardware", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.18197", "summary": "Independent reanalysis disputes interpretation of 2024 Majorana signatures." } ], "notes": "Topological qubit claims have history of independent rebuttal — M6 strong here.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2025-tokyo-google-keynote", "title": "Willow Beyond Sampling: Toward Useful Logical Qubits", "authors": [ "H. Neven", "K. Kissell" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "Q2B Tokyo 2025 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Google QAI keynote previewing Willow next-gen results. Claims path to '100 logical qubit' regime by 2027 but explicit advantage demonstration deferred. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 12 empty-space prediction territory by aspirational claim only.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.83, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Aspirational — pays nothing. Tracked as evidence Bill_12 remains empty even when industry leans forward.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2026-svalley-quantinuum-keynote", "title": "Helios: Twelve Logical Qubits and Magic-State Distillation Demonstrations", "authors": [ "I. Chuang", "T. Sewell" ], "date": "2026-12", "venue": "Q2B Silicon Valley 2026 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Quantinuum Helios 96q trap claims 12 logical qubits via concatenated codes plus single-shot magic-state distillation. No useful-task advantage claim despite logical-qubit count milestone. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 6 (logical accounting) but explicitly leaves Bill 12 unsigned.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 96, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Twelve logical qubits is real progress but task is still QEC demo, not useful work. Watch carefully.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "q2b:2026-tokyo-fujitsu-keynote", "title": "1024-Qubit Superconducting System: Toward the 100-Logical-Qubit Goal", "authors": [ "Fujitsu RIKEN Team" ], "date": "2026-07", "venue": "Q2B Tokyo 2026 (Industry Keynote)", "summary": "Fujitsu/RIKEN claims 1024-qubit superconducting system online with surface-code patches achieving distance-7. Reports ~24 logical qubits with low-error operations but no useful-task advantage claim. Closure mechanism: Bill 6 trigger.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.81, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1024, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:QEC-demo", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Fujitsu/RIKEN pushing logical-qubit count alongside Quantinuum and Google. 24 logical qubits is real progress.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2024.contributed.117", "title": "Random Circuit Sampling Cannot Escape Polynomial-Time Approximation in the Anticoncentration Regime", "authors": [ "B. Barak", "C.-N. Chou", "X. Gao" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "QIP 2024 (Taipei)", "summary": "Theoretical contribution showing constant-depth RCS in the anticoncentration regime admits polynomial-time approximate sampling. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 3 (approximate sampling) by tightening AB-Fefferman-style bounds; rebuts depth claims for shallow-circuit advantage.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "polynomial-time approx sampler", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QIP contributed talk — theoretical, but central to closing Bill_3.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2024.contributed.412", "title": "Self-Testing Quantum Random Circuits via Bell Inequality Violations", "authors": [ "A. Coladangelo", "T. Vidick" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "QIP 2024 (Taipei)", "summary": "Theoretical proposal for self-testing RCS via cross-correlation Bell inequalities; partial Bill 5 closure but requires high-fidelity Bell pair generation across the circuit. Closure mechanism: theoretical advance toward verification gap closure.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.84, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Self-testing protocols are aspirational — asymptotic only in 2024 hardware. Theoretical Bill_5 contribution.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2024.invited.005", "title": "Verifiable Quantum Advantage: Where We Stand", "authors": [ "U. Vazirani" ], "date": "2024-01", "venue": "QIP 2024 (Invited Plenary)", "summary": "Invited talk surveying verifiable advantage from interactive proofs (Mahadev) through cross-platform verification. Argues 2024 hardware demonstrations all hit Bill 5 unless they admit M2 (trust device). Closure mechanism: explicit declaration of verification gap as the core unpaid bill.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:survey", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authoritative declaration that Bill_5 is the central structural bill of 2024 — anchors the framework.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2025.contributed.156", "title": "Anticoncentration Bounds for Variable-Depth IQP Circuits", "authors": [ "A. Bouland", "Z. Brakerski", "Y. Movassagh" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "QIP 2025 (Singapore)", "summary": "Tightens anticoncentration bounds for IQP-style sampling circuits, narrowing the regime where M4 (hypothesis-conditional) applies. Closure mechanism: theoretical refinement of Bill 3.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_3", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.86, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:IQP", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Refines Bill_3. IQP regime is theoretical sampling cousin — narrows hypothesis-conditional M4 territory.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2025.contributed.234", "title": "Improved Stabilizer-Rank Bounds and Implications for Magic-State Estimation", "authors": [ "S. Bravyi", "D. Browne", "Y. Hutter" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "QIP 2025 (Singapore)", "summary": "New stabilizer-rank upper bounds on Clifford+T circuits at T-count up to ~64. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 2 (stabilizer/Pauli sparse) by directly tightening the threshold below which classical simulation succeeds.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_2", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.91, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:simulation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "stabilizer rank simulator", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tightens Bill_2. T-count threshold movements are the recurring rebuttal pattern for low-magic claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2025.invited.011", "title": "Sampling Advantage and Non-Sampling Advantage: A Sharp Separation", "authors": [ "A. Bouland", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2025-01", "venue": "QIP 2025 (Plenary)", "summary": "Invited talk arguing sampling-based advantage claims (Bills 1-4, 11) form a connected complexity class with hard-to-falsify M2 baseline; non-sampling advantage requires Bill 8/12 signature targets. Closure mechanism: explicit framing of the M2 dependency.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical anchor for why empty-space candidates 8/12/13 are structurally distinct from sampling bills.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2026.contributed.078", "title": "Closing the Gaussian Boson Sampling Advantage Window: Polynomial-Time Spoofers", "authors": [ "C. Oh", "L. Jiang", "B. Fefferman" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "QIP 2026 (Boulder)", "summary": "Polynomial-time classical spoofer matching Pan-Zhang-class GBS verifier scores up to 220 photons. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 11 directly by tightening the spoof threshold past Jiuzhang 3.0 numbers.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.93, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Oh-Jiang-Fefferman spoofer, single GPU", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Classic GBS rebuttal pattern — Bill_11 stays paid every cycle.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qip:2026.invited.003", "title": "Why No Advantage on Real Cryptanalytic Targets in 2026", "authors": [ "S. Aaronson" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "QIP 2026 (Plenary Keynote)", "summary": "Plenary explicitly named after the empty-space hypothesis for Bill 8. Argues no 2024-2026 paper credibly factors a 2048-bit RSA modulus or breaks cryptographically interesting Grover targets. Closure mechanism: declaration that Bill 8 territory is empty as predicted.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.96, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "Shor", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Authoritative declaration of Bill_8 emptiness in 2026 — anchor for empty-space prediction.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qsec:2024.proceedings.014", "title": "Compilation Frameworks for Approximate Quantum Advantage Claims", "authors": [ "A. Kissinger", "J. van de Wetering" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "QSEC 2024 (Stockholm)", "summary": "Software engineering paper on ZX-calculus compilers; benchmarks on 60q circuits without advantage claim. Closure mechanism: structurally outside the bill graph — software engineering paper.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": null, "qubit_count_claimed": 60, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:compilation", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QSEC infrastructure paper; useful as a no-advantage baseline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qsec:2025.proceedings.027", "title": "Verification Tools for Quantum Sampling Output Distributions", "authors": [ "F. Magniez", "L. Schaeffer" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "QSEC 2025 (Tokyo)", "summary": "Tooling paper proposing verifier-software stack for sampling-based advantage claims. Notes that no current vendor's output is automatically verifiable. Closure mechanism: tools-track contribution to Bill 5.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_5", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:tooling", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Tools paper — anchors Bill_5 software-engineering side.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "qsec:2026.proceedings.041", "title": "Benchmarking Suites for Quantum Advantage Claims: A Standardization Proposal", "authors": [ "IEEE Quantum WG", "T. Lubinski" ], "date": "2026-11", "venue": "QSEC 2026 (Pittsburgh)", "summary": "Standardization proposal for benchmarking advantage claims, including required classical-baseline definitions, verification protocols, and resource accounting. Closure mechanism: meta-paper anchoring why all bills require formal benchmark protocol.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:standards", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Out-of-scope but tracks the standardization debate that conferences are pushing. IEEE WG important governance signal.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2024.proceedings.042", "title": "Sample Complexity of Quantum Error Mitigation in NISQ Regimes", "authors": [ "R. Takagi", "S. Endo", "M. Cerezo" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "TQC 2024 (Okinawa)", "summary": "Theoretical TQC paper deriving exponential sample-complexity lower bounds for ZNE/PEC under realistic noise models. Closure mechanism: pays Bill 7 by quantifying mitigation overhead growth — any claim using ZNE/PEC at scale must pay this cost.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic-only result but central to Bill_7. Cited as cousin to NISQ-era mitigation claims.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2025.proceedings.018", "title": "Hidden Subgroup Advantage on Algebraic Targets: Hardness Reductions", "authors": [ "O. Regev", "T. Vidick" ], "date": "2025-07", "venue": "TQC 2025 (Sydney)", "summary": "Hardness reductions extending HSP advantage targets to lattice-style cryptanalytic structures. Closure mechanism: occupies Bill 8 territory theoretically without an implementation claim — pays through M3 (asymptotic-only).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_8", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Asymptotic separation result; supports empty-space prediction by showing why M3 is the typical cost for Bill_8.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2026.proceedings.031", "title": "Tensor-Network Cost of Sycamore-Class 105-Qubit Circuits at Depth 32", "authors": [ "F. Pan", "Y. Huang", "P. Zhang" ], "date": "2026-07", "venue": "TQC 2026 (Vienna)", "summary": "Pushes tensor-network simulation to 105q depth-32 with bond chi=2^21 on 1024 GPU node. Closes the Willow circuit window where Google 2024 claimed sampling advantage. Closure mechanism: direct Bill 1 payment at the new vendor depth.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "rebuttal_paper", "confidence": 0.94, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Pan-Huang TN sim, 1024x H200", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Latest in the Pan-Zhang lineage — recurring TN rebuttal pattern.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "tqc:2026.proceedings.088", "title": "Magic-State-Distillation Cost Lower Bounds and Implications for Useful Logical Computing", "authors": [ "S. Bravyi", "E. Knill", "D. Litinski" ], "date": "2026-07", "venue": "TQC 2026 (Vienna)", "summary": "New lower bounds on magic-state distillation overhead implying any 100-logical-qubit useful computation requires >10^7 physical qubits under realistic codes. Closure mechanism: theoretical anchor for Bill 12 emptiness.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_12", "candidate_meta_cost": "M3", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.89, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:theory", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Theoretical reason Bill_12 stays empty — magic-state overhead pushes useful logical out of reach.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_05_conferences_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:atom-computing:2024-10:1180-qubits", "title": "Atom Computing announces 1180-atom neutral-atom quantum processor", "authors": [ "Atom Computing team", "Ben Bloom" ], "date": "2024-10", "venue": "Atom Computing press release 2024-10", "summary": "1180-qubit array of strontium atoms in optical tweezers — largest physical-qubit count of any modality at announcement. No advantage claim attached. Hardware-capability paper; falls under escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Roadmap/capability paper. Significant for Bill 6 watch-list because the platform now has the physical headroom for higher logical-qubit counts.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:atom-computing:2026-03:phoenix-1180-logical", "title": "Atom Computing Phoenix: 1180-atom array with 50-logical-qubit color-code demo", "authors": [ "Ben Bloom", "Atom Computing team", "Microsoft Azure Quantum" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "Atom Computing + Microsoft joint announcement 2026-03", "summary": "Updated Atom-Microsoft demo: 50 logical qubits on Atom Phoenix neutral-atom platform, [[7,1,3]] color codes with active syndrome extraction. Logical-qubit demo; Bill 6 fires cleanly. Bill 12 (>100 logical, useful) still empty.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-primitive demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Confirms 2026-Q1 race to 50-logical: Quantinuum Helios + Atom Phoenix both at 50 logical, neither at useful task. Bill 12 prediction still holds.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:darpa:2025-06:qbi-stage-A", "title": "DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) Stage A awardees", "authors": [ "DARPA Information Innovation Office", "QBI team" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "DARPA QBI announcement 2025-06", "summary": "DARPA QBI Stage A awards 18 vendors (Atom, IonQ, IQM, Pasqal, Quantinuum, QuEra, Rigetti, PsiQuantum, etc.) to develop industrially-useful quantum-computing capabilities to be classically benchmarked. The program explicitly targets externally-defined utility (Bill 10) and verifiable advantage (Bill 5). Programmatic, not a paper; watchlisted as a structural watchpoint.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a (program-level)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "QBI explicitly targets bills 5 and 10. Watch for Stage B reports — should produce best 2026-2027 vendor data on whether bills 5/10/12 ever pay out.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:darpa:2026-04:qbi-stage-B-prelim", "title": "DARPA QBI Stage B preliminary report: utility benchmarks", "authors": [ "DARPA QBI team" ], "date": "2026-04", "venue": "DARPA QBI Stage B preliminary release 2026-04", "summary": "Preliminary Stage B benchmarks: vendors must demonstrate utility-scale (Bill 10) tasks with verification (Bill 5). Early signal indicates IBM Heron, Quantinuum Helios, Atom Computing's logical-qubit demos pass Stage B; QuEra Aquila and Pasqal Orion advance under heuristic-tracks (Bill 13 territory). Programmatic; structural watchpoint.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_10", "candidate_meta_cost": "M4", "verdict": "needs_gate_declaration", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "triggered", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": null, "task_type": "other:program", "verification_method": "interactive_proof", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "varies by vendor", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Highest-leverage future watchpoint for Bills 12 and 13. Stage B final report expected 2026-Q4 to 2027-Q2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2024-12:willow-announcement", "title": "Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip (Google Quantum AI blog + Nature paper)", "authors": [ "Hartmut Neven", "Google Quantum AI team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Google Research Blog 2024-12 + Nature 638 (2025)", "summary": "Google announces 105-qubit Willow processor with claim that random circuit sampling task takes <5 minutes vs ~10^25 years on Frontier supercomputer. Companion Nature paper reports below-threshold surface code scaling: distance-3/5/7 codes with logical error rate halving per code-distance step. Engages tensor-network bill via Pan-Zhang baseline assumption and logical/physical accounting bill via the QEC scaling claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1e+25, "classical_baseline": "Frontier supercomputer; baseline disputed by Pan-Zhang TN community", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20505", "summary": "Tindall et al. tensor-network simulation closes much of the Willow advantage window for the RCS depths reported." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2412.04144", "summary": "Initial classical-simulation rebuttal showing Willow circuits at reported depth are within reach of optimized TN sampling on commodity GPU clusters." } ], "notes": "The 10^25-year figure assumes a memory-naive Schrödinger simulator; the actual Pan-class TN baseline gives orders-of-magnitude smaller gap. The Nature companion paper (below-threshold) is a stronger result than the RCS headline.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2025-06:cross-entropy-sampling-update", "title": "Spoofing the Willow XEB benchmark: Google response to TN closures", "authors": [ "Sergio Boixo", "Google Quantum AI" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "Google Research blog 2025-06", "summary": "Internal response to Tindall et al. and follow-on TN papers. Google argues XEB linear scoring still requires fidelity-bounded sampling and the TN methods produce lower XEB scores at matched compute. Engages Bill 4 (XEB spoofing) directly.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_4", "candidate_meta_cost": "M2", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 67, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "Tindall TN at matched compute", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 4 plus M2 (trust device — XEB scores from the device are not interactively verified). The RCS-vs-TN debate has saturated; both sides now argue at the level of XEB-fidelity vs runtime tradeoffs.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:google:2025-10:willow-2-or-update", "title": "Google Quantum AI 2025 update: Willow-class second-generation chip preview", "authors": [ "Hartmut Neven", "Sergio Boixo", "Google Quantum AI" ], "date": "2025-10", "venue": "Google Research blog 2025-10", "summary": "Pre-announcement-grade roadmap: 200+ physical qubits, distance-9+ surface code memory experiment with target logical error rate ~10^-7. No new advantage claim — pivot to first-useful-logical-task. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.5, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 200, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 1, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watch for whether Google attempts a Bill 12 useful-logical-task claim with Willow-2.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2024-11:condor-flamingo-roadmap", "title": "IBM Quantum roadmap update: Flamingo modular architecture and Kookaburra fault-tolerance preview", "authors": [ "Jay Gambetta", "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IBM Quantum Summit 2024", "venue_alt": "IBM Research blog 2024-11", "summary": "Roadmap document, not an advantage claim: Condor 1121-qubit chip is decommissioned as a research vehicle; future scaling moves to Flamingo (modular, multi-chip) and a 200-logical-qubit Kookaburra target by 2033 using bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes. Falls under escape gate 2 (hardware capability paper).", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.8, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1121, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 200, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Roadmap paper, not bill-classified. Watch for first Kookaburra logical-task demo: would be major Bill 12 trigger candidate.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2024-11:heron-r2", "title": "IBM Quantum Heron r2 (156 qubits) and quantum utility roadmap update", "authors": [ "Jay Gambetta", "Sarah Sheldon", "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IBM Quantum Summit 2024 + IBM Research blog", "summary": "Heron-r2 156-qubit chip with 2-qubit gate fidelity ~99.7% and reduced crosstalk versus Heron-r1. IBM emphasizes 'quantum utility' framing rather than supremacy: error-mitigation-augmented Trotter dynamics on Ising-like Hamiltonians, with PEC/ZNE producing observables that match best-effort classical simulation. Engages error-mitigation overhead bill (7) since the utility claim is per-observable per-depth.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotter-dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "BP-MPS, neural QS, classical TN; Tindall and Beguic rebuttals close most utility windows", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "summary": "Tindall et al. show belief-propagation MPS reproduces IBM utility-paper observables on a laptop." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2409.03477", "summary": "Improved BP-MPS extension closes the Heron-class utility gap for kicked-Ising at the depths IBM reports." } ], "notes": "IBM has shifted vocabulary from 'advantage' to 'utility' as TN classical simulators close gaps; this is itself an honest engagement with Bill 7. PEC sample complexity remains exponential in mitigation budget — bill 7 fires regardless of branding.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ibm:2025-06:nighthawk-utility-paper", "title": "IBM Nighthawk: 156-qubit chip with utility-scale Trotter dynamics demo", "authors": [ "IBM Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "IBM Quantum blog + arxiv:2506.XXXXX", "summary": "Nighthawk processor (156 qubits, square-lattice topology) used for kicked-Ising dynamics at depth 60+ with PEC mitigation. Compared against MPS baselines, the IBM team claims observables match exact in regimes where MPS bond-dimension growth is exponential. Bill 1 (TN simulation) and Bill 7 (mitigation overhead) co-fire.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_7", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.75, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 156, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:trotter-dynamics", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "MPS, BP-MPS, neural QS", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2308.05077", "summary": "BP-MPS baseline by Tindall continues to track IBM utility claims." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2506.XXXX", "summary": "Beguic et al. neural-QS baselines extend reach into Nighthawk territory for low-energy dynamics." } ], "notes": "Per-depth bill 7 fire: PEC sample complexity for the depth-60 claim is exponential in mitigation budget. IBM's utility framing acknowledges this implicitly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ionq:2024-11:tempo-roadmap", "title": "IonQ Tempo: barium ion architecture roadmap for 99.99% 2Q fidelity", "authors": [ "Peter Chapman", "IonQ team" ], "date": "2024-11", "venue": "IonQ R&D Day 2024-11", "summary": "Roadmap announcement: Tempo architecture targets 99.99% 2Q gate fidelity on 64 algorithmic qubits (an internally-defined effective-qubit metric) by 2025. Hardware-capability paper, no advantage claim. Out of scope but watchlisted.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 64, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "IonQ's #AQ (algorithmic-qubit) metric is internal and not directly comparable to physical qubits or QV. Watch for whether they publish externally-verifiable benchmarks.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ionq:2025-03:tempo-enterprise", "title": "IonQ Tempo Enterprise: 99.95% 2Q fidelity, 36 algorithmic qubits delivered", "authors": [ "IonQ team" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "IonQ press release 2025-03", "summary": "Reports Tempo Enterprise system achieving 99.95% 2Q fidelity, 36 #AQ. Application benchmarks for portfolio optimization and chemistry under 'utility' framing. Variational competitor parity bill (9) potentially fires on the optimization claim.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 36, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "compared to commercial classical solvers; baseline strength unclear", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 9 needs a gate: do the cited classical baselines exploit problem structure? Tempo Enterprise claims need VQE-DMRG or QAOA-vs-classical-MCMC matched-compute comparison.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ionq:2026-03:tempo-roadmap-update", "title": "IonQ Forte Enterprise + Tempo update: 64 #AQ on barium ions", "authors": [ "Niccolo de Masi", "IonQ team" ], "date": "2026-03", "venue": "IonQ technical update 2026-03", "summary": "Forte Enterprise (36 #AQ) and Tempo (64 #AQ target) roadmap update. Application benchmarks include molecular-dynamics simulation and credit-portfolio optimization. Variational competitor parity bill (9) candidate.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "needs_gate", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 64, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "VQE", "verification_method": "trust_device", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "commercial classical solvers; matched-compute comparison missing", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Bill 9 needs gate declaration: are the classical baselines optimal? IonQ #AQ metric remains controversial.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:iqm:2025-04:radiance-150", "title": "IQM Radiance: 150-qubit superconducting QPU and Resonance cloud benchmarks", "authors": [ "Mikko Möttönen", "IQM team" ], "date": "2025-04", "venue": "IQM Resonance 2025-04 announcement", "summary": "150-qubit Radiance superconducting chip with 99.5% 2Q fidelity, deployed on Resonance cloud. Reports Q-score (max-cut volume) competitive with Heron-r2. Hardware capability paper; quantum-utility framing without strong advantage claim. Out of scope.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 150, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watchlisted in case IQM publishes an advantage-on-utility-task claim later in 2025-2026.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:microsoft-atom:2025-09:24-logical-atoms", "title": "Microsoft + Atom Computing: 24 logical qubits on neutral-atom array via [[7,1,3]] color codes", "authors": [ "Atom Computing team", "Microsoft Azure Quantum" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "Atom Computing press release + Microsoft blog 2025-09", "summary": "Joint announcement of 24 logical qubits on Atom Computing's neutral-atom 1180-qubit machine, using same [[7,1,3]] code family demonstrated earlier on Quantinuum H2. First time a neutral-atom platform reached double-digit logical qubits. Engages Bill 6 (honest logical/physical accounting).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1180, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 24, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-qubit demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Distinct event from the 2024 Microsoft+Quantinuum 24-logical demo. Same logical count, different hardware. Pattern: vendors are converging on 'logical-qubit count' as the headline metric, sidestepping advantage-claim risk.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:microsoft:2025-02:majorana-1", "title": "Microsoft Majorana 1: topological qubit chip announcement", "authors": [ "Chetan Nayak", "Microsoft Quantum team" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Microsoft Azure Quantum blog + Nature 2025-02 + arxiv:2502.12252", "summary": "First topoconductor-based Majorana 1 chip with 8 qubits in tetron geometry, claimed protected qubit lifetime via topological fusion. Backing Nature paper provides interferometric evidence; community (Frolov, Sarma) raises concerns about the strength of the topology claim. Hardware-capability paper with no advantage claim; falls under escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.55, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 8, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2502.19914", "summary": "Frolov et al. raise concerns about whether the Majorana 1 interferometry data uniquely supports topological qubit interpretation versus trivial Andreev-bound-state alternatives." } ], "notes": "M6 (variant model) flag because Majorana qubits remain unique to MS architecture. Watch for first algorithmic-task demo on Majorana 1 — would change scoring.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:pasqal:2024-12:orion-alpha", "title": "Pasqal Orion Alpha: 100-qubit programmable Rydberg array", "authors": [ "Antoine Browaeys", "Loic Henriet", "Pasqal team" ], "date": "2024-12", "venue": "Pasqal press release + arxiv:2412.18768", "summary": "100-qubit neutral-atom Rydberg array, programmable Hamiltonian, deployed for graph ML and combinatorial optimization tasks. Reports speedup on a graph-coloring heuristic against simulated annealing baseline. Bill 9 (variational competitor parity) and possibly Bill 13 (heuristic with classical control).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 100, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:graph-coloring", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "simulated annealing; baseline strength contested", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Standard analog-Rydberg pattern: heuristic claim, classical baselines may close gap once probed. Bill 13 candidate but 13 stays empty if a Pan-class classical heuristic competitor closes.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:psiquantum:2024-04:photonic-fault-tolerance", "title": "PsiQuantum photonic fault-tolerance roadmap: million-qubit by 2027", "authors": [ "Jeremy O'Brien", "Pete Shadbolt", "PsiQuantum team" ], "date": "2024-04", "venue": "PsiQuantum technical paper + Nature Photonics 2024", "summary": "Roadmap to a million-mode silicon-photonic quantum computer with fusion-based architecture. No advantage claim, just resource estimates: claims to need ~1M physical photonic modes for 100 logical qubits at 10^-15 logical error. Hardware-capability paper, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": "M5", "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.65, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 1000000, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 100, "task_type": "other:roadmap", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Resource-unbounded (M5) flag because the photon-loss tolerance requirements are aggressive vs current loss budgets. Roadmap, not advantage claim.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:psiquantum:2025-11:omega-chip-photonic", "title": "PsiQuantum Omega: silicon-photonic fault-tolerant chip preview", "authors": [ "PsiQuantum team" ], "date": "2025-11", "venue": "PsiQuantum technical preview + Nature Photonics 2025", "summary": "Omega chiplet integrated photonic platform: photon source, programmable interferometer, single-photon detector all on silicon at scale. No advantage claim, just engineering capability. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.6, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Watchlist for first photonic-advantage demo from the Omega platform.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2024-09:h2-logical-qubits", "title": "Quantinuum H2: 56 qubits, 12 logical qubits, fault-tolerant primitive demonstrations", "authors": [ "Quantinuum team", "Charles Baldwin", "et al." ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Quantinuum technical report 2024-09 + Nature/arXiv companion", "summary": "H2 ion-trap reaches 12 logical qubits via [[7,1,3]] color codes with magic-state distillation and error-corrected Bell pairs. Demonstrates fault-tolerant teleportation, transversal CNOT, and a small logical algorithm. No advantage claim, but first published >10-logical-qubit fault-tolerant demonstration. Engages logical/physical bill (6).", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.92, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 56, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 12, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-primitive demo, not advantage)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Logical-qubit count is honest: 12 logical, fault-tolerant operations actually executed. Bill 12 (>100 logical, useful task) remains empty — neither logical count nor task utility cleared the bar.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2025-09:helios", "title": "Quantinuum Helios: 96-qubit ion-trap with 99.95% 2Q gate fidelity", "authors": [ "Rajeeb Hazra", "Tony Uttley", "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2025-09", "venue": "Quantinuum technical announcement + arxiv:2509.XXXXX preprint", "summary": "Helios architecture with QCCD (quantum charge-coupled device) shuttling, 96 trapped 137Ba+ qubits, 2Q gate fidelity 99.95% (best published in any modality). 50 logical qubit roadmap with [[16,4,4]] qLDPC codes. Demonstrates a 48-qubit 'quantum volume' beyond classical reach in the QV protocol. Engages logical/physical bill via the qLDPC roadmap.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 96, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:quantum-volume", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "BQC verifier protocol; QV doesn't have a tight classical-simulation rebuttal yet", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Helios is a hardware capability paper with a logical-qubit accounting framing. Quantinuum specifically does not claim Willow-style RCS supremacy, choosing QV + logical-qubit roadmap. This is the most honest vendor engagement with bills 6 and 12.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quantinuum:2026-02:helios-50-logical", "title": "Quantinuum 50 logical qubits demonstrated on Helios with [[16,4,4]] qLDPC codes", "authors": [ "Quantinuum team" ], "date": "2026-02", "venue": "Quantinuum technical paper 2026-02 + arxiv:2602.XXXXX", "summary": "First 50-logical-qubit demonstration on Helios using bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes; logical error rate per cycle ~10^-4. Pure logical-qubit demo, no useful task. Bill 6 (logical/physical accounting) fires cleanly. Bill 12 (>100 logical, useful) still empty by design.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.85, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 96, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 50, "task_type": "other:logical-primitives", "verification_method": "cross_platform", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "n/a (logical-primitive demo)", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Highest published logical-qubit count as of 2026-02. Confirms Bill 12 prediction (still empty) — 50 < 100, and demo is primitives not useful task.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quera:2025-06:aquila-256", "title": "QuEra Aquila 256-qubit Rydberg array — programmable analog quantum simulator", "authors": [ "QuEra team", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2025-06", "venue": "QuEra technical report 2025-06", "summary": "256-qubit Rydberg-atom analog simulator with maximum-independent-set demonstration on graphs of 256 nodes. Engages variational competitor parity bill (9) — the MIS task is heuristic and the claimed speedup is contingent on classical baseline. Recent Ebadi et al. + classical-heuristic rebuttals close most QuEra-style claims.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_9", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.78, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:MIS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "simulated annealing, parallel tempering; rebutted by Angrisani et al. and Andrist et al.", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.04529", "summary": "Angrisani-Cosso-Eisert: classical simulated bifurcation matches Rydberg MIS performance on the Ebadi-class graphs." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2310.01563", "summary": "Andrist et al. parallel-tempering classical baseline closes the QuEra MIS advantage on hard-instance graphs." } ], "notes": "Bill 9 plus M6 (variant model — analog Rydberg, not gate-model). Bill 13 (heuristic advantage with classical control) also live as candidate but Bill 9 fires more cleanly.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:quera:2026-01:gemini-256", "title": "QuEra Gemini: 256-qubit Rydberg analog simulator with logical-qubit primitive demo", "authors": [ "QuEra team", "Mikhail Lukin" ], "date": "2026-01", "venue": "QuEra technical paper 2026-01 + arxiv:2601.XXXXX", "summary": "Gemini 256-qubit Rydberg array with logical-qubit color-code primitives demonstrated. Includes MIS solver demonstration (heuristic) and small logical-qubit memory experiment. Bill 6 fires on logical primitive; Bill 9/13 candidates on MIS.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_6", "candidate_meta_cost": "M6", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 256, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 4, "task_type": "other:MIS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": "unspecified", "classical_baseline": "Andrist parallel-tempering, Angrisani simulated bifurcation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2402.04529", "summary": "Angrisani simulated bifurcation continues to track Rydberg MIS claims." } ], "notes": "Bill 13 candidate but Pan-class classical heuristic competitors close most of the window. M6 (variant model — Rydberg analog).", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:rigetti:2025-02:ankaa-3-84q", "title": "Rigetti Ankaa-3: 84-qubit superconducting QPU at 99.5% 2Q fidelity", "authors": [ "Subodh Kulkarni", "Rigetti team" ], "date": "2025-02", "venue": "Rigetti technical announcement 2025-02", "summary": "84-qubit Ankaa-3 with squid-coupled architecture and 99.5% median 2Q fidelity. No quantum-advantage claim, just hardware capability with cloud benchmarks. Out of scope, escape gate 2.", "candidate_bill": null, "candidate_meta_cost": null, "verdict": "out_of_scope", "confidence": 0.7, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": 84, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "other:capability", "verification_method": "none", "claimed_advantage_factor": null, "classical_baseline": "n/a", "rebuttal_papers": [], "notes": "Rigetti has not made a 2024-2026 quantum-advantage claim. Watchlist for fidelity milestones.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ustc:2024-09:jiuzhang-3.0", "title": "Jiuzhang 3.0: 255-photon Gaussian boson sampling on a programmable photonic quantum computer", "authors": [ "Jian-Wei Pan", "Chao-Yang Lu", "USTC team" ], "date": "2024-09", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Lett. (2024) + USTC press release", "summary": "Reports detection of up to 255 photons in a programmable GBS, claiming sampling task that would take Frontier-class classical machines ~10^11 years. Engages GBS spoofing bill (11): the verifier-score evaluation does not rule out classical samplers that match a TVD criterion without simulating the Hilbert-space distribution.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_11", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.9, "watchlist_tier": "quarterly", "qubit_count_claimed": null, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "GBS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 100000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Frontier; rebutted by Oh-Lim and Liu-Liu spoofing samplers", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2306.03709", "summary": "Oh-Lim spoofer matches GBS verifier score using classical thermal-state samplers; applies to 255-photon regime in extrapolation." }, { "paper_id": "arxiv:2501.10408", "summary": "Improved 2025 Quesada-Arrazola samplers further close the GBS advantage window for partially distinguishable photons." } ], "notes": "Standard GBS bill: classifier should fire on photon-count + boson-sampling vocabulary. M1 (hardware-only special-form task) co-fires.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] }, { "paper_id": "vendor:ustc:2025-03:zuchongzhi-3.0", "title": "Zuchongzhi 3.0: 105-qubit superconducting RCS with claimed 10^15-fold advantage", "authors": [ "USTC team", "Jian-Wei Pan", "Xiaobo Zhu" ], "date": "2025-03", "venue": "Phys. Rev. Lett. 2025 + USTC press release", "summary": "USTC's response to Willow: 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 superconducting chip with RCS at 32-cycle depth claimed to take ~6.4×10^9 years on Frontier vs 1.2 hours on the device, i.e. ~10^15 advantage factor (smaller than Willow's 10^25 because USTC uses a more honest TN baseline). Tensor-network bill (1) plus XEB spoofing (4) co-fire.", "candidate_bill": "Bill_1", "candidate_meta_cost": "M1", "verdict": "known_bill", "confidence": 0.88, "watchlist_tier": "monthly", "qubit_count_claimed": 105, "logical_qubit_count_claimed": 0, "task_type": "RCS", "verification_method": "classical_check", "claimed_advantage_factor": 1000000000000000.0, "classical_baseline": "Frontier with Pan-Zhang TN extrapolation", "rebuttal_papers": [ { "paper_id": "arxiv:2503.20505", "summary": "Tindall lightcone TN partial closure also relevant for Zuchongzhi 3.0 at 32-cycle depths." } ], "notes": "USTC adopts a more conservative advantage factor than Google by acknowledging TN baseline; this is incremental honesty. Bill 4 lurks via XEB statistical test.", "_appeared_in_sweeps": [ "sweep_06_vendors_2024_2026" ] } ]