Open-weight Frontier Ledger Data Receipts

Public Draft v0.2 REAL DATA

8 parallel Opus research-agent sweeps yielded ~372 raw papers, deduplicated and hand-arbitrated to 371 unique. Bills 5, 8, 11 ★ NO CLEAN TRIGGER YET (0 clean triggers each). Rebuttal density 19.9%.

Receipts

Artifact	Link	Purpose
Bill definitions	bills_draft.md	14 bills + 6 meta-costs + 3 escape gates + ★ 5, 8, 11 empty-space verification with real fire counts
Threat model	purpose.md	Threat model, scope, empty-space hypothesis, cousin-ledger coupling
Corpus union JSON	_batch_1_union.json	371 unique papers (deduplicated from ~372 raw across 8 sweeps), with full metadata
Classifier	bill_classifier.py	Regex rule engine + hand-arbitration. Run with `--arbitrate-union`
Aggregator	aggregate_batch_1.py	Deduplicates raw sweep JSONs into the corpus union
README	README.md	Reproducibility README with run order

Real fire counts

Bill	Cands.	Clean	Rebuttals	Gated
1 — Fine-tuning safety-erosion audit	45	26	19	0
2 — Distillation cousin half-life	35	4	0	31
3 — Bio / chem dual-use uplift	39	0	0	39
4 — Cyber / hacking dual-use uplift	10	0	0	10
5 ★ Distillation-resistant capability	24	0	6	18
6 — Weight-release-vs-API-access asymmetry	8	8	0	0
7 — Sleeper-agent / backdoor persistence	41	29	11	1
8 ★ Cross-deployment-surface generalization	11	0	0	11
9 — Vendor / lab-card independence	28	5	0	18
10 — Re-pretraining cousin audit	30	0	0	30
11 ★ Open-weight gating regulation achieves stated purpose	36	0	4	32
12 — Distillation-recipe lifecycle	8	2	0	6
13 — Inference-cost-as-deterrent transparency	3	3	0	0
14 — Test-time-search-as-amplifier on open-weights	4	4	0	0

Public draft v0.2 (2026-05-09). Sweep JSONs live in the source repo at ProjectForty2 public evidence bundle: open_weight/deep_loops/. Target v0.3 lock 2026-Q3.